RESUMO
Several studies have linked air pollution to COVID-19 morbidity and severity. However, these studies do not account for exposure levels to SARS-CoV-2, nor for different sources of air pollution. We analyzed individual-level data for 8.3 million adults in the Netherlands to assess associations between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e., positive test) and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, accounting for spatiotemporal variation in SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels during the first two major epidemic waves (February 2020-February 2021). We estimated average annual concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 at residential addresses, overall and by PM source (road traffic, industry, livestock, other agricultural sources, foreign sources, other Dutch sources), at 1 × 1 km resolution, and weekly SARS-CoV-2 exposure at municipal level. Using generalized additive models, we performed interval-censored survival analyses to assess associations between individuals' average exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in the three years before the pandemic (2017-2019) and COVID-19-outcomes, adjusting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure, individual and area-specific confounders. In single-pollutant models, per interquartile (IQR) increase in exposure, PM10 was associated with 7% increased infection risk and 16% increased hospitalisation risk, PM2.5 with 8% increased infection risk and 18% increased hospitalisation risk, and NO2 with 3% increased infection risk and 11% increased hospitalisation risk. Bi-pollutant models suggested that effects were mainly driven by PM. Associations for PM were confirmed when stratifying by urbanization degree, epidemic wave and testing policy. All emission sources of PM, except industry, showed adverse effects on both outcomes. Livestock showed the most detrimental effects per unit exposure, whereas road traffic affected severity (hospitalisation) more than infection risk. This study shows that long-term exposure to air pollution increases both SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, even after controlling for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels, and that PM may have differential effects on these COVID-19 outcomes depending on the emission source.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Exposição Ambiental , Material Particulado , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Masculino , Feminino , Material Particulado/análise , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Adulto , Incidência , Estudos de Coortes , SARS-CoV-2 , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
Transmission of pathogens between spatially separated hosts, i.e., indirect transmission, is a commonly encountered phenomenon important for epidemic pathogen spread. The routes of indirect transmission often remain untraced, making it difficult to develop control strategies. Here we used a tailor-made design to study indirect transmission experimentally, using two different zoonotic bacteria in broilers. Previous experiments using a single bacterial species yielded a delay in the onset of transmission, which we hypothesized to result from the interplay between diffusive motion of infectious material and decay of infectivity in the environment. Indeed, a mathematical model of diffusive pathogen transfer predicts a delay in transmission that depends both on the distance between hosts and on the magnitude of the pathogen decay rate. Our experiments, carried out with two bacterial species with very different decay rates in the environment, confirm the difference in transmission delay predicted by the model. These results imply that for control of an infectious agent, the time between the distant exposure and the infection event is important. To illustrate how this can work we analyzed data observed on the spread of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus in an intensive care unit. Indeed, a delayed vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus transmission component was identified in these data, and this component disappeared in a study period in which the environment was thoroughly cleaned. Therefore, we suggest that the impact of control strategies against indirect transmission can be assessed using our model by estimating the control measures' effects on the diffusion coefficient and the pathogen decay rate.
Assuntos
Infecção Hospitalar/transmissão , Enterococcus , Infecções por Bactérias Gram-Positivas/transmissão , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Modelos Biológicos , Resistência a Vancomicina/genética , Animais , Infecções por Campylobacter/transmissão , Galinhas , Difusão , Infecções por Escherichia coli/transmissão , Humanos , Longevidade , Especificidade da Espécie , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.
Assuntos
Vírus Bluetongue/fisiologia , Bluetongue/epidemiologia , Bluetongue/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Temperatura , Animais , Bluetongue/virologia , Vírus Bluetongue/genética , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/transmissão , Doenças dos Bovinos/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Doenças das Cabras/epidemiologia , Doenças das Cabras/transmissão , Doenças das Cabras/virologia , Cabras , Modelos Teóricos , Estações do Ano , Ovinos , Análise EspacialRESUMO
A devastating bluetongue (BT) epidemic caused by bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) has spread throughout most of the Netherlands within two months since the first infection was officially confirmed in the beginning of September 2023. The epidemic comes with unusually strong suffering of infected cattle through severe lameness, often resulting in mortality or euthanisation for welfare reasons. In total, tens of thousands of sheep have died or had to be euthanised. By October 2023, more than 2200 locations with ruminant livestock were officially identified to be infected with BTV-3, and additionally, ruminants from 1300 locations were showing BTV-associated clinical symptoms (but not laboratory-confirmed BT). Here, we report on the spatial spread and dynamics of this BT epidemic. More specifically, we characterized the distance-dependent intensity of the between-holding transmission by estimating the spatial transmission kernel and by comparing it to transmission kernels estimated earlier for BTV-8 transmission in Northwestern Europe in 2006 and 2007. The 2023 BTV-3 kernel parameters are in line with those of the transmission kernel estimated previously for the between-holding spread of BTV-8 in Europe in 2007. The 2023 BTV-3 transmission kernel has a long-distance spatial range (across tens of kilometres), evidencing that in addition to short-distance dispersal of infected midges, other transmission routes such as livestock transports probably played an important role.
Assuntos
Vírus Bluetongue , Bluetongue , Epidemias , Sorogrupo , Animais , Bluetongue/epidemiologia , Bluetongue/transmissão , Bluetongue/virologia , Vírus Bluetongue/classificação , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Ovinos , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/virologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/transmissãoRESUMO
The risk of epidemic spread of diseases in livestock poses a threat to animal and often also human health. Important for the assessment of the effect of control measures is a statistical model quantification of between-farm transmission during epidemics. In particular, quantification of the between-farm transmission kernel has proven its importance for a range of different diseases in livestock. In this paper we explore if a comparison of the different transmission kernels yields further insight. Our comparison identifies common features that connect across the different pathogen-host combinations analyzed. We conjecture that these features are universal and thereby provide generic insights. Comparison of the shape of the spatial transmission kernel suggests that, in absence of animal movement bans, the distance dependence of transmission has a universal shape analogous to Lévy-walk model descriptions of human movement patterns. Also, our analysis suggests that interventions such as movement bans and zoning, through their impact on these movement patterns, change the shape of the kernel in a universal fashion. We discuss how the generic insights suggested can be of practical use for assessing risks of spread and optimizing control measures, in particular when outbreak data is scarce.
Assuntos
Epidemias , Gado , Animais , Humanos , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Planejamento de Cidades , Medicamentos GenéricosRESUMO
Although most infections are transmitted through the environment, the processes underlying the environmental stage of transmission are still poorly understood for most systems. Improved understanding of the environmental transmission dynamics is important for effective non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. To study the mechanisms underlying environmental transmission we formulated a parsimonious modelling framework including hypothesised mechanisms of pathogen dispersion and decay. To calibrate and validate the model, we conducted a series of experiments studying distance-dependent transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in broilers. We obtained informative simultaneous estimates for all three model parameters: the parameter of C. jejuni inactivation, the diffusion coefficient describing pathogen dispersion, and the transmission rate parameter. The time and distance dependence of transmission in the fitted model is quantitatively consistent with marked spatiotemporal patterns in the experimental observations. These results, for C. jejuni in broilers, show that the application of our modelling framework to suitable transmission data can provide mechanistic insight in environmental pathogen transmission.
Assuntos
Infecções por Campylobacter , Campylobacter jejuni , Doenças das Aves Domésticas , Animais , Galinhas , Campylobacter jejuni/fisiologia , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Previous studies, performed between 2009-2019, in the Netherlands observed an until now still unexplained increased risk for pneumonia among residents living close to goat farms. Since data were collected in the provinces Noord-Brabant and Limburg (NB-L), an area with relatively high air pollution levels and proximity to large industrial areas in Europe, the question remains whether the results are generalizable to other regions. In this study, a different region, covering the provinces Utrecht, Gelderland, and Overijssel (UGO) with a similar density of goat farms, was included to assess whether the association between goat farm proximity and pneumonia is consistently observed across the Netherlands. METHODS: Data for this study were derived from the Electronic Health Records (EHR) of 21 rural general practices (GPs) in UGO, for 2014-2017. Multi-level analyses were used to compare annual pneumonia prevalence between UGO and data derived from rural reference practices ('control area'). Random-effects meta-analysis (per GP practice) and kernel analyses were performed to study associations of pneumonia with the distance between goat farms and patients' home addresses. RESULTS: GP diagnoses of pneumonia occurred 40% more often in UGO compared to the control area. Meta-analysis showed an association at a distance of less than 500m (~70% more pneumonia compared to >500m) and 1000m (~20% more pneumonia compared to >1000m). The kernel-analysis for three of the four individual years showed an increased risk up to a distance of one or two kilometers (2-36% more pneumonia; 10-50 avoidable cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year). CONCLUSIONS: The positive association between living in the proximity of goat farms and pneumonia in UGO is similar to the previously found association in NB-L. Therefore, we concluded that the observed associations are relevant for regions with goat farms in the entire country.
Assuntos
Gado , Pneumonia , Animais , Cabras , Fazendas , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/veterinária , Pneumonia/etiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases in plants, animals and humans are often transmitted indirectly between hosts (or between groups of hosts), i.e. via some route through the environment instead of via direct contacts between these hosts. Here we study indirect transmission experimentally, using transmission of Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) between spatially separated broilers as a model system. We distinguish three stages in the process of indirect transmission; (1) an infectious "sender" excretes the agent, after which (2) the agent is transported via some route to a susceptible "receiver", and subsequently (3) the receiver becomes colonised by the agent. The role of the sender and receiver side (stage 1 and stage 3) was studied here by using acidification of the drinking water as a modulation mechanism. RESULTS: In the experiment one control group and three treatment groups were monitored for the presence of C. jejuni by taking daily cloacal swabs. The three treatments consisted of acidification of the drinking water of the inoculated animals (the senders), acidification of the drinking water of the susceptible animals (the receivers) or acidification of the drinking water of both inoculated and susceptible animals. In the control group 12 animals got colonised out of a possible 40, in each treatment groups 3 animals out of a possible 40 were found colonised with C. jejuni. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the experiments show a significant decrease in transmission rate (ß) between the control groups and treatment groups (p < 0.01 for all groups) but not between different treatments; there is a significant negative interaction effect when both the sender and the receiver group receive acidified drinking water (p = 0.01). This negative interaction effect could be due to selection of bacteria already at the sender side thereby diminishing the effect of acidification at the receiver side.
Assuntos
Infecções por Campylobacter/veterinária , Campylobacter jejuni/fisiologia , Galinhas , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/microbiologia , Animais , Infecções por Campylobacter/microbiologia , Infecções por Campylobacter/transmissão , Água Potável/química , Abrigo para Animais , Concentração de Íons de Hidrogênio , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/transmissãoRESUMO
In the veal industry in The Netherlands, each year around 1.2 million "white" veal calves are produced on around 1100 farms. Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) causes serious health issues in these calves, also resulting in high usage of antimicrobials. To reduce antimicrobial usage, a more targeted treatment regime is needed, for which it is necessary to identify the causative agent. This study aimed at determining associations between pathogens and clinical disease, between prevalence of pathogens and BRD outbreaks, and BRD and performance. A cohort study was conducted involving ten veal farms, in which calf respiratory health was evaluated for the first 12 weeks. Whenever there was an outbreak of BRD, as determined by the farm veterinary surgeon, samples were taken from diseased and control calves through broncho-alveolar lavage. From these samples a broad spectrum of micro-organisms were isolated. Performance data were also collected. A total of 23 outbreaks happened during the 12 week study period, mostly in the first six weeks. BRD associated pathogens found were: BHV1, BPI3V, BRSV, BVDV, Pasteurella multocida, Mannheimia haemolytica, Trueperella pyogenes, Histophilus somni, Mycoplasma bovis, Mycoplasma bovirhinis and Mycoplasma dispar. For most BRD associated pathogens, there was no clear association between presence or prevalence of the micro-organisms and clinical issues. Only T. pyogenes (7.4% in healthy, 14.6% in diseased calves, p 0.013), M. bovis (37.6% and 63.2% respectively, p 0.001) and BVDV (9.9% and 16.9% respectively, p 0.03) were found more often in diseased animals. BPI3V was found in a few early outbreaks, which might suggest involvement in early outbreaks. It appears to be difficult to associate specific pathogens to outbreaks at the species level. BRD is the major reason for treatment with antimicrobials. More specific knowledge about the association between pathogens and health/disease could help to reduce antimicrobial use.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos , Mannheimia haemolytica , Mycoplasma bovis , Carne Vermelha , Doenças Respiratórias , Bovinos , Animais , Estudos de Coortes , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/etiologia , Doenças Respiratórias/complicações , Doenças Respiratórias/veterináriaRESUMO
Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives, such as: understanding epidemic drivers; forecasting epidemics; and prioritising control measures. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. Modelling challenges contribute to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches and to fostering technical dialogue between modellers. In this paper, we present the results of the first modelling challenge in animal health - the ASF Challenge - which focused on a synthetic epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) on an island. The modelling approaches proposed by five independent international teams were compared. We assessed their ability to predict temporal and spatial epidemic expansion at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boar, and to prioritise a limited number of alternative interventions. We also compared their qualitative and quantitative spatio-temporal predictions over the first two one-month projection phases of the challenge. Top-performing models in predicting the ASF epidemic differed according to the challenge phase, host species, and in predicting spatial or temporal dynamics. Ensemble models built using all team-predictions outperformed any individual model in at least one phase. The ASF Challenge demonstrated that accounting for the interface between livestock and wildlife is key to increasing our effectiveness in controlling emerging animal diseases, and contributed to improving the readiness of the scientific community to face future ASF epidemics. Finally, we discuss the lessons learnt from model comparison to guide decision making.
Assuntos
Vírus da Febre Suína Africana , Febre Suína Africana , Epidemias , Febre Suína Africana/epidemiologia , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Sus scrofa , SuínosRESUMO
Susceptibility to scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep, is modulated by the genetic make-up of the sheep. Scrapie control policies, based on selecting animals of resistant genotype for breeding, have recently been adopted by the Netherlands and other European countries. Here we assess the effectiveness of a breeding programme based on selecting rams of resistant genotype to obtain outbreak control in classical scrapie-affected sheep flocks under field conditions. In six commercially-run flocks following this breeding strategy, we used genotyping to monitor the genotype distribution, and tonsil biopsies and post-mortem analyses to monitor the occurrence of scrapie infection. The farmers were not informed about the monitoring results until the end of the study period of six years. We used a mathematical model of scrapie transmission to analyze the monitoring data and found that where the breeding scheme was consistently applied, outbreak control was obtained after at most four years. Our results also show that classical scrapie control can be obtained before the frequency of non-resistant animals is reduced to zero in the flock. This suggests that control at the national scale can be obtained without a loss of genetic polymorphisms from any of the sheep breeds.
Assuntos
Cruzamento , Genótipo , Scrapie/etiologia , Scrapie/prevenção & controle , Ovinos/genética , Animais , Masculino , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Scrapie/epidemiologia , Scrapie/genética , Estações do AnoRESUMO
The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission.
Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis/veterinária , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Gado , Aves Domésticas , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/etiologia , Simulação por Computador , Geografia , Modelos Biológicos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
In 2006 and 2007, sheep and cattle farms in the Netherlands were affected by an epidemic of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8). In order to obtain insight into the within-farm spread of the virus, five affected cattle and five affected sheep farms were longitudinally monitored between early 2007 and mid or late 2008. The farms were visited between four and seven times to collect blood samples. During each visit, all animals present in the flock or herd were sampled. The samples were analysed for the presence of BTV-8 antibodies (ELISA) and BTV-8 antigen (rRT-PCR). The observed patterns of RT-PCR positives indicate a rapid within-farm virus spread during the vector season. During vector-free periods we observed a complete rRT-PCR positivity decline within a few months. During the vector season a lower bound estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0) ranges from 2.9-6.9 in the cattle herds (one herd not analysed), and from 1.3-3.2 in the sheep flocks in this study.
Assuntos
Vírus Bluetongue/patogenicidade , Doenças dos Bovinos/virologia , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Fazendas/estatística & dados numéricos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Sorogrupo , OvinosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Following EU decision 2003/100/EC Member States have recently implemented sheep breeding programmes to reduce the prevalence of sheep with TSE susceptible prion genotypes. The present paper investigates the progress of the breeding programme in the Netherlands. The PrP genotype frequencies were monitored through time using two sets of random samples: one set covers the years 2005 to 2008 and is taken from national surveillance programme; the other is taken from 168 random sheep farms in 2007. The data reveal that although the level of compliance to the breeding programme has been high, the frequency of susceptible genotypes varies substantially between farms. The 168 sheep farms are a subset of 689 farms participating in a postal survey inquiring about management and breeding strategies. This survey aimed to identify how much these strategies varied between farms, in order to inform assessment of the expected future progress towards eradication of classical scrapie. RESULTS: On the one hand, we found that compliance to the national breeding program has been high, and the frequency of resistant genotypes is expected to increase further in the next few years. On the other hand, we observed a large variation in prevalence of the scrapie resistant PrP genotype ARR between farms, implicating a large variation of genetic resistance between farms. Substantial between-flock differences in management and breeding strategies were found in the postal survey, suggesting considerable variation in risk of scrapie transmission between farms. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that although there has been a good progress in the breeding for scrapie resistance and the average farm-level scrapie susceptibility in the Netherlands has been significantly reduced, still a considerable proportion of farms contain high frequencies of susceptible genotypes in their sheep population. Since 2007 the breeding for genetic resistance is voluntarily again, and participation to selective breeding can decrease as a result of this. This, together with the patterns of direct and indirect contact between sheep farms, might present a challenge of the aim of scrapie eradication. Communication to sheep owners of the effect of the breeding programme thus far, and of the prospects for classical scrapie eradication in The Netherlands might be essential for obtaining useful levels of participation to the voluntary continuation of the breeding programme.
Assuntos
Cruzamento , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Scrapie/epidemiologia , Scrapie/genética , Animais , Feminino , Genótipo , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Scrapie/prevenção & controle , Ovinos , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.Here we analyze the data on genotype frequencies and scrapie prevalence in the Dutch sheep population obtained from both surveillance and affected flocks, to identify temporal trends. We also estimate the genotype-specific relative risks to become a detected scrapie case. RESULTS: We find that the breeding programme has produced a steady increase in the level of genetic scrapie resistance in the Dutch sheep population. We also find that a significant decline in the prevalence of scrapie in tested animals has occurred a number of years after the start of the breeding programme. Most importantly, the estimated scrapie prevalence level per head of susceptible genotype is also declining significantly, indicating that selective breeding causes a population effect. CONCLUSIONS: The Dutch scrapie control programme has produced a steady rise in genetic resistance levels in recent years. A recent decline in the scrapie prevalence per tested sheep of susceptible prion protein genotype indicates that selective breeding causes the desired population effect.
Assuntos
Cruzamento , Genótipo , Scrapie/epidemiologia , Scrapie/genética , Animais , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Scrapie/prevenção & controle , OvinosRESUMO
Quantitative understanding of transmission with and without control measures is important for the control of infectious diseases because it helps to determine which of these measures (or combinations thereof) will be effective to reduce transmission. In this paper, the statistical methods used to estimate transmission parameters are explained. To show how these methods can be used we reviewed literature for papers describing foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) transmission in pigs and we used the data to estimate transmission parameters. The analysis showed that FMDV transmits very well when pigs have direct contact. Transmission, however, is reduced when a physical barrier separates infected and susceptible non-vaccinated pigs. Vaccination of pigs can prevent infection when virus is administered by a single intradermal virus injection in the bulb of the heel, but it cannot prevent infection when pigs are directly exposed to either non-vaccinated or vaccinated FMDV infected pigs. Physical separation combined with vaccination is observed to block transmission. Vaccination and separation can make a significant difference in the estimated number of new infections per day. Experimental transmission studies show that the combined effect of vaccination and physical separation can significantly reduce transmission (R < 1), which is a very relevant result for the control of between-farm transmission.
RESUMO
The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.
Assuntos
Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Aves Domésticas/virologia , Animais , Surtos de Doenças , Fazendas , Influenza Aviária/mortalidade , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Modelos Estatísticos , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Between 2007 and 2010 a Q fever epidemic in Dutch dairy goat farms caused a large Q fever outbreak in human residents in the southern part of the Netherlands. Here we characterize the transmission of Coxiella burnetii, the aetiological agent of Q fever, between infected and susceptible dairy goat farms by estimating a spatial transmission kernel. In addition, we characterize the zoonotic transmission of C. burnetii by estimating the spatial kernel for transmission from infected farms to neighbouring residents. Whereas the range of between-farm transmission is comparable to the scale of the Netherlands, likely due to long-range between-farm contacts such as animal transport, the transmission risk from farms to humans is more localized, although still extending to 10 km and beyond. Within a range of about 10 km, the transmission risk from an infected goat farm to a single resident is of the same order of magnitude as the farm-to-farm transmission risk per animal in a receiving farm. We illustrate how, based on the estimated kernels, spatial patterns of transmission risks between farms and from farms to residents can be calculated and visualized by means of risk maps, offering further insight relevant to policy making in a one-health context.
Assuntos
Febre Q/transmissão , Animais , Número Básico de Reprodução , Fazendas , Geografia , Doenças das Cabras/epidemiologia , Cabras/microbiologia , Humanos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Densidade Demográfica , Febre Q/epidemiologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Understanding virus shedding patterns of avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry is important for understanding host-pathogen interactions and developing effective control strategies. Many AIV strains were studied in challenge experiments in poultry, but no study has combined data from those studies to identify general AIV shedding patterns. These systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to summarize qualitative and quantitative information on virus shedding levels and duration for different AIV strains in experimentally infected poultry species. Methods were designed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Four electronic databases were used to collect literature. A total of 1155 abstract were screened, with 117 studies selected for the qualitative analysis and 71 studies for the meta-analysis. A large heterogeneity in experimental methods was observed and the quantitative analysis showed that experimental variables such as species, virus origin, age, inoculation route and dose, affect virus shedding (mean, peak and duration) for highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV), low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV) or both. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to standardize experimental procedures, it provides a comprehensive summary of the shedding patterns of AIV strains by infected poultry and identifies the variables that influence the level and duration of AIV shedding.
Assuntos
Vírus da Influenza A/fisiologia , Influenza Aviária/virologia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/virologia , Eliminação de Partículas Virais , Animais , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno , Vírus da Influenza A/classificação , Vírus da Influenza A/patogenicidade , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Aves Domésticas , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/transmissãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Living in livestock-dense areas has been associated with health effects, suggesting airborne exposures to livestock farm emissions to be relevant for public health. Livestock farm emissions involve complex mixtures of various gases and particles. Endotoxin, a pro-inflammatory agent of microbial origin, is a constituent of livestock farm emitted particulate matter (PM) that is potentially related to the observed health effects. Quantification of livestock associated endotoxin exposure at residential addresses in relation to health outcomes has not been performed earlier. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess exposure-response relations for a range of respiratory endpoints and atopic sensitization in relation to livestock farm associated PM10 and endotoxin levels. METHODS: Self-reported respiratory symptoms of 12,117 persons participating in a population-based cross-sectional study were analyzed. For 2494 persons, data on lung function (spirometry) and serologically assessed atopic sensitization was additionally available. Annual-average PM10 and endotoxin concentrations at home addresses were predicted by dispersion modelling and land-use regression (LUR) modelling. Exposure-response relations were analyzed with generalized additive models. RESULTS: Health outcomes were generally more strongly associated with exposure to livestock farm emitted endotoxin compared to PM10. An inverse association was observed for dispersion modelled exposure with atopic sensitization (endotoxin: pâ¯=â¯.004, PM10: pâ¯=â¯.07) and asthma (endotoxin: pâ¯=â¯.029, PM10: pâ¯=â¯.022). Prevalence of respiratory symptoms decreased with increasing endotoxin concentration at the lower range, while at the higher range prevalence increased with increasing concentration (pâ¯<â¯.05). Associations between lung function parameters with exposure to PM10 and endotoxin were not statistically significant (pâ¯>â¯.05). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to livestock farm emitted particulate matter is associated with respiratory health effects and atopic sensitization in non-farming residents. Results indicate endotoxin to be a potentially plausible etiologic agent, suggesting non-infectious aspects of microbial emissions from livestock farms to be important with respect to public health.