Development of a prediction model to target screening for high blood pressure in children.

Targeted screening for childhood high blood pressure may be more feasible than routine blood pressure measurement in all children to avoid unnecessary harms, overdiagnosis or costs. Targeting maybe based e.g. on being overweight, but information on other predictors may also be useful. Therefore, we aimed to develop a multivariable diagnostic prediction model to select children aged 9-10 years for blood pressure measurement. Data from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study were used. High blood pressure was defined as systolic or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 95th percentile for gender, age, and height. Logistic regression with backward selection was used to identify the strongest predictors related to pregnancy, child, and parent characteristics. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure. The diagnostic model included maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal BMI, maternal educational level, parental hypertension, parental smoking, child birth weight standard deviation score (SDS), child BMI SDS, and child ethnicity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73, compared to 0.65 when using only child overweight. Using the model and a cut-off of 5% for predicted risk, sensitivity and specificity were 59% and 76%; using child overweight only, sensitivity and specificity were 47% and 84%. In conclusion, our diagnostic prediction model uses easily obtainable information to identify children at increased risk of high blood pressure, offering an opportunity for targeted screening. This model enables to detect a higher proportion of children with high blood pressure than a strategy based on child overweight only.

The effect of a multidisciplinary intervention program for overweight and obese children on cardiorespiratory fitness and blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: Multidisciplinary intervention programs for overweight and obese children mainly focus on reducing bodyweight and body mass index (BMI), but they may also positively impact blood pressure (BP), and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), which is a stronger predictor for all-cause mortality than BMI. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether Kids4Fit, a multidisciplinary weight reduction program, has a positive effect on CRF and BP in overweight and obese children in socially deprived areas. METHODS: A quasi-experimental study design with a waiting list control period including children who participated in a multidisciplinary intervention program of 12 weeks was set-up. Blood pressure measurements and shuttle-run test (SRT) were performed at baseline, at the start of the intervention, at the end of intervention and after 52 weeks. The effect of Kids4Fit on BP and on SRT scores were analyzed using mixed models. RESULTS: A total of 154 children were included [mean age 8.5 years (SD 1.8)]. No significant change was seen in systolic BP percentiles at 52 weeks after start of the Kids4Fit intervention (ß 0.08, (95%CI -0.06, 0.22)). Diastolic BP percentiles increased significantly over time (ß 0.20 (0.08, 0.31)). Effect plots showed an initial significant increase of the SRT scores but this effect diluted after the intervention. CONCLUSION: A local multidisciplinary intervention program in deprived areas had a significant positive effect on CRF, but this effect diluted after the intervention. Diastolic BP percentiles significantly increased over time. However, systolic BP did not change over time.

Criterion Validity and Applicability of Motor Screening Instruments in Children Aged 5-6 Years: A Systematic Review.

The detection of motor developmental problems, especially developmental coordination disorder, at age 5-6 contributes to early interventions. Here, we summarize evidence on (1) criterion validity of screening instruments for motor developmental problems at age 5-6, and (2) their applicability. We systematically searched seven databases for studies assessing criterion validity of these screening instruments using the M-ABC as reference standard. We applied COSMIN criteria for systematic reviews of screening instruments to describe the correlation between the tests and the M-ABC. We extracted information on correlation coefficients or area under the receiver operating curve, sensitivity and specificity, and applicability in practice. We included eleven studies, assessing eight instruments: three performance-based tests (MAND, MOT 4-6, BFMT) and five questionnaires (DCD-Q, PQ, ASQ-3, MOQ-T-FI, M-ABC-2-C). The quality of seven studies was fair, one was good, and three were excellent. Seven studies reported low correlation coefficients or AUC (<0.70), four did not report these. Sensitivities ranged from 21-87% and specificities from 50-96%, with the MOT4-6 having the highest sensitivity and specificity. The DCD-Q, PQ, ASQ-3, MOQ-T-FI, and M-ABC-2-C scored highest on applicability. In conclusion, none of the instruments were sufficiently valid for motor screening at age 5-6. More research is needed on screening instruments of motor delay at age 5-6.

Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight: Development and internal validation in a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8). METHODS: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4-10.5 years), defined according to the sex- and age-specific BMI cut-offs of the International Obesity Task Force. RESULTS: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351. CONCLUSIONS: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice.

Childhood prediction models for hypertension later in life: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, even during childhood, increases the risk of developing atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Therefore, starting prevention of hypertension early in the life course could be beneficial. Prediction models might be useful for identifying children at increased risk of developing hypertension, which may enable targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of childhood prediction models for future hypertension. METHODS: Embase and Medline were systematically searched. Studies were included that were performed in the general population, and that reported on development or validation of a multivariable model for children to predict future high blood pressure, prehypertension or hypertension. Data were extracted using the CHARMS checklist for prediction modelling studies. RESULTS: Out of 12 780 reviewed records, six studies were included in which 18 models were presented. Five studies predicted adulthood hypertension, and one predicted adolescent prehypertension/hypertension. BMI and current blood pressure were most commonly included as predictors in the final models. Considerable heterogeneity existed in timing of prediction (from early childhood to late adolescence) and outcome measurement. Important methodological information was often missing, and in four studies information to apply the model in new individuals was insufficient. Reported area under the ROC curves ranged from 0.51 to 0.74. As none of the models were validated, generalizability could not be confirmed. CONCLUSION: Several childhood prediction models for future hypertension were identified, but their value for practice remains unclear because of suboptimal methods, limited information on performance, or the lack of external validation. Further validation studies are indicated.

Dynamic prediction of childhood high blood pressure in a population-based birth cohort: a model development study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURE: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Medication use in European primary care patients with lower respiratory tract infection: an observational study.

BACKGROUND It is largely unknown what medication is used by patients with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). AIM To describe the use of self-medication and prescribed medication in adults presenting with LRTI in different European countries, and to relate self-medication to patient characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING An observational study in 16 primary care networks in 12 European countries. METHOD A total of 2530 adult patients presenting with LRTI in 12 European countries filled in a diary on any medication used before and after a primary care consultation. Patient characteristics related to self-medication were determined by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS The frequency and types of medication used differed greatly between European countries. Overall, 55.4% self-medicated before consultation, and 21.5% after consultation, most frequently with paracetamol, antitussives, and mucolytics. Females, non-smokers, and patients with more severe symptoms used more self-medication. Patients who were not prescribed medication during the consultation self-medicated more often afterwards. Self-medication with antibiotics was relatively rare. CONCLUSION A considerable amount of medication, often with no proven efficacy, was used by adults presenting with LRTI in primary care. There were large differences between European countries. These findings should help develop patient information resources, international guidelines, and international legislation concerning the availability of over-the-counter medication, and can also support interventions against unwarranted variations in care. In addition, further research on the effects of symptomatic medication is needed.

[Long term effects of Kawasaki disease]. / Langetermijneffecten van de ziekte van Kawasaki.

Kawasaki Disease (KD) is an acute, self-limiting, vasculitis typically occurring in children under the age of five. Less than 5% of children with KD develop coronary aneurysms and require follow-up by a (paediatric) cardiologist. The majority of patients do not receive follow-up care. However, recent data suggest that the inflammation associated with KD has the potential to affect the entire cardiovascular system. Patients with a history of KD may have an increased risk of long-term cardiovascular sequelae. Therefore KD should be considered a cardiovascular risk factor.