Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

Habitability Models for Astrobiology.

Habitability has been generally defined as the capability of an environment to support life. Ecologists have been using Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) for more than four decades to study the habitability of Earth from local to global scales. Astrobiologists have been proposing different habitability models for some time, with little integration and consistency among them, being different in function to those used by ecologists. Habitability models are not only used to determine whether environments are habitable, but they also are used to characterize what key factors are responsible for the gradual transition from low to high habitability states. Here we review and compare some of the different models used by ecologists and astrobiologists and suggest how they could be integrated into new habitability standards. Such standards will help improve the comparison and characterization of potentially habitable environments, prioritize target selections, and study correlations between habitability and biosignatures. Habitability models are the foundation of planetary habitability science, and the synergy between ecologists and astrobiologists is necessary to expand our understanding of the habitability of Earth, the Solar System, and extrasolar planets.

Observational Constraints on the Great Filter.

The search for spectroscopic biosignatures with the next generation of space telescopes could provide observational constraints on the abundance of exoplanets with signs of life. An extension of this spectroscopic characterization of exoplanets is the search for observational evidence of technology, known as technosignatures. Current mission concepts that would observe biosignatures from ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths could place upper limits on the fraction of planets in the Galaxy that host life, although such missions tend to have relatively limited capabilities of constraining the prevalence of technosignatures at mid-infrared wavelengths. Yet searching for technosignatures alongside biosignatures would provide important knowledge about the future of our civilization. If planets with technosignatures are abundant, then we can increase our confidence that the hardest step in planetary evolution-the Great Filter-is probably in our past. But if we find that life is commonplace while technosignatures are absent, then this would increase the likelihood that the Great Filter awaits to challenge us in the future.

Does the Evolution of Complex Life Depend on the Stellar Spectral Energy Distribution?

This article presents the proportional evolutionary time (PET) hypothesis, which posits that the mean time required for the evolution of complex life is a function of stellar mass. The "biological available window" is defined as the region of a stellar spectrum between 200 and 1200 nm that generates free energy for life. Over the ∼4 Gyr history of Earth, the total energy incident at the top of the atmosphere and within the biological available window is ∼1034 J. The hypothesis assumes that the rate of evolution from the origin of life to complex life is proportional to this total energy, which would suggest that planets orbiting other stars should not show signs of complex life if the total energy incident on the planet is below this energy threshold. The PET hypothesis predicts that late K- and M-dwarf stars (M < 0.7 [Formula: see text]) are too young to host any complex life at the present age of the Universe. F-, G-, and early K-dwarf stars (M > 0.7 [Formula: see text]) represent the best targets for the next generation of space telescopes to search for spectroscopic biosignatures indicative of complex life.

LIMIT CYCLES CAN REDUCE THE WIDTH OF THE HABITABLE ZONE.

The liquid water habitable zone (HZ) describes the orbital distance at which a terrestrial planet can maintain above-freezing conditions through regulation by the carbonate-silicate cycle. Recent calculations have suggested that planets in the outer regions of the HZ cannot maintain stable, warm climates, but rather should oscillate between long, globally glaciated states and shorter periods of climatic warmth. Such conditions, similar to "Snowball Earth" episodes experienced on Earth, would be inimical to the development of complex land life, including intelligent life. Here, we build on previous studies with an updated energy balance climate model to calculate this "limit cycle" region of the HZ where such cycling would occur. We argue that an abiotic Earth would have a greater CO2 partial pressure than today because plants and other biota help to enhance the storage of CO2 in soil. When we tune our abiotic model accordingly, we find that limit cycles can occur but that previous calculations have overestimated their importance. For G stars like the Sun, limit cycles occur only for planets with CO2 outgassing rates less than that on modern Earth. For K- and M-star planets, limit cycles should not occur; however, M-star planets may be inhospitable to life for other reasons. Planets orbiting late G-type and early K-type stars retain the greatest potential for maintaining warm, stable conditions. Our results suggest that host star type, planetary volcanic activity, and seafloor weathering are all important factors in determining whether planets will be prone to limit cycling.

An ecological compass for planetary engineering.

Proposals to address present-day global warming through the large-scale application of technology to the climate system, known as geoengineering, raise questions of environmental ethics relevant to the broader issue of planetary engineering. These questions have also arisen in the scientific literature as discussions of how to terraform a planet such as Mars or Venus in order to make it more Earth-like and habitable. Here we draw on insights from terraforming and environmental ethics to develop a two-axis comparative tool for ethical frameworks that considers the intrinsic or instrumental value placed upon organisms, environments, planetary systems, or space. We apply this analysis to the realm of planetary engineering, such as terraforming on Mars or geoengineering on present-day Earth, as well as to questions of planetary protection and space exploration.

Availability of O(2) and H(2)O(2) on pre-photosynthetic Earth.

Old arguments that free O(2) must have been available at Earth's surface prior to the origin of photosynthesis have been revived by a new study that shows that aerobic respiration can occur at dissolved oxygen concentrations much lower than had previously been thought, perhaps as low as 0.05 nM, which corresponds to a partial pressure for O(2) of about 4 × 10(-8) bar. We used numerical models to study whether such O(2) concentrations might have been provided by atmospheric photochemistry. Results show that disproportionation of H(2)O(2) near the surface might have yielded enough O(2) to satisfy this constraint. Alternatively, poleward transport of O(2) from the equatorial stratosphere into the polar night region, followed by downward transport in the polar vortex, may have brought O(2) directly to the surface. Thus, our calculations indicate that this "early respiration" hypothesis might be physically reasonable.

A revised, hazy methane greenhouse for the Archean Earth.

Geological and biological evidence suggests that Earth was warm during most of its early history, despite the fainter young Sun. Upper bounds on the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the Late Archean/Paleoproterozoic (2.8-2.2 Ga) from paleosol data suggest that additional greenhouse gases must have been present. Methanogenic bacteria, which were arguably extant at that time, may have contributed to a high concentration of atmospheric CH4, and previous calculations had indicated that a CH4-CO2-H2O greenhouse could have produced warm Late Archean surface temperatures while still satisfying the paleosol constraints on pCO2. Here, we revisit this conclusion. Correction of an error in the CH4 absorption coefficients, combined with the predicted early onset of climatically cooling organic haze, suggest that the amount of greenhouse warming by CH4 was more limited and that pCO2 must therefore have been 0.03 bar, at or above the upper bound of the value obtained from paleosols. Enough warming from CH4 remained in the Archean, however, to explain why Earth's climate cooled and became glacial when atmospheric O2 levels rose in the Paleoproterozoic. Our new model also shows that greenhouse warming by higher hydrocarbon gases, especially ethane (C2H6), may have helped to keep the Late Archean Earth warm.