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Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.
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Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Política Ambiental/tendências , Atividades Humanas/tendências , Dieta , Dieta Vegetariana/tendências , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Humanos , Desenvolvimento Sustentável/tendênciasRESUMO
Corneal blindness affects more than 5 million individuals, with over 180,000 corneal transplantations (CTs) performed annually. In high-risk CTs, almost all grafts are rejected within 10 years. Here, we investigated adeno-associated virus (AAV) ex vivo gene therapy to establish immune tolerance in the corneal allograft to prevent high-risk CT rejection. Our previous work has demonstrated that HLA-G contributes to ocular immune privilege by inhibiting both immune cells and neovascularization; however, homodimerization is a rate-limiting step for optimal HLA-G function. Therefore, a chimeric protein called single-chain immunomodulator (scIM), was engineered to mimic the native activity of the secreted HLA-G dimer complex and eliminate the need for homodimerization. In a murine corneal burn model, AAV8-scIM significantly reduced corneal vascularization and fibrosis. Next, ex vivo AAV8-scIM gene delivery to corneal allografts was evaluated in a high-risk CT rejection rabbit model. All scIM-treated corneas were well tolerated and transparent after 42 days, while 83% of vehicle-treated corneas were rejected. Histologically, AAV-scIM-treated corneas were devoid of immune cell infiltration and vascularization, with minimal fibrosis at the host-graft interface. The data collectively demonstrate that scIM gene therapy prevents corneal neovascularization, reduces trauma-induced corneal fibrosis, and prevents allogeneic CT rejection in a high-risk large animal model.
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INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to investigate intraocular pressure (IOP)-independent factors associated with the progression of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) with IOP ≤15 mm Hg. METHODS: POAG patients with maximum IOP ≤15 mm Hg at the Kyoto University Hospital between January 2011 and August 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. We evaluated effects of various factors on the rate of mean deviation (MD) changes in the visual field (VF) examinations using a linear mixed model. These factors included hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), hyperlipidemia (HL), cardiovascular disease, arrhythmia, disc hemorrhage, sleep apnea syndrome, orthopedic diseases, and malignant tumors. RESULTS: In total, 98 eyes from 68 patients were included. The baseline MD was -9.74 ± 7.85 dB. The mean rate of MD change and IOP during the observation period were -0.28 ± 0.04 dB/year and 11.8 ± 1.0 mm Hg, respectively. Comorbidity of DM or HL showed a significant positive association with the rate of MD change (ß = 0.35, p = 0.0006 and ß = 0.18, p = 0.036, respectively) in the model adjusted for age, sex, axial length, mean IOP, and standard deviation of IOP during the observation period. However, no significant association of DM or HL was found after adjusting for central corneal thickness. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that DM or HL is associated with VF deterioration in glaucoma with lower IOP, but the association may be due to differences in IOP characteristics.
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Progressão da Doença , Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto , Pressão Intraocular , Campos Visuais , Humanos , Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto/fisiopatologia , Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto/diagnóstico , Feminino , Masculino , Pressão Intraocular/fisiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Campos Visuais/fisiologia , Seguimentos , Tonometria Ocular , Idoso de 80 Anos ou maisRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the concordance between line blot (LB) and immunoprecipitation (IP) assays for detecting myositis-specific antibodies (MSAs) in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) and their association with IIM subtypes. METHODS: One hundred patients with IIM were enrolled, and MSA was detected using LB and IP. The IIM subtypes, including immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy-like, anti-tRNA synthetase syndrome-like, and clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis-like, were clinically diagnosed. The validity and reliability of the LB compared with the IP were evaluated. Optimal cutoff levels for LB were determined using various statistical methods including Cohen κ, Gwet's AC, diagnostic odds ratios, and receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: Line blot exhibited lower specificity and accuracy than IP in predicting IIM subtypes. Some MSAs performed better at higher LB cutoff values. Anti-signal recognition particle antibodies showed poor performance in predicting the immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy-like subtype using LB. Raising the cutoffs improved the reliability of anti-threonyl-tRNA synthetase and anti-signal recognition particle antibodies. Anti-histidyl-tRNA synthetase antibodies performed well at lower positivity, whereas diagnostic odds ratios increased for anti-transcription intermediary factor 1γ and anti-nuclear matrix protein 2 with higher cutoffs. CONCLUSIONS: Inconsistencies between LB and IP have been observed in patients with IIM. Individual optimal cutoffs for MSA by LB correlating with IP were determined. Rheumatologists should consider the differences between LB and IP results when classifying IIM subtypes.
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Aminoacil-tRNA Sintetases , Doenças Autoimunes , Miosite , Humanos , Autoanticorpos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Miosite/diagnóstico , ImunoensaioRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The association between sarcoidosis and autoimmunity has been reported for years. However, the significance of autoantibodies in the pathophysiology and clinical management of sarcoidosis is not well understood. No autoantibodies that can be used as serologic biomarkers to diagnose the disease, monitor the state of the disease, and predict the prognosis of patients are established. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive analysis of serum autoantibodies and analyzed their associations with clinical features of sarcoidosis. RESULTS: Patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases-associated autoantibodies had a higher prevalence of advanced radiographic stage and consolidations in high-resolution computed tomography than patients without autoantibodies (p < .05). Age, sex, clinical history, pulmonary function tests, serum angiotensin-converting enzyme levels, rheumatoid factor, and the number of involved organs were not significantly different between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: There may be an association between autoantibodies and more advanced pulmonary lesions in patients with sarcoidosis. Further investigations are needed to establish the significance of autoantibodies.
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Relevância Clínica , Sarcoidose , Humanos , Sarcoidose/diagnóstico , Autoanticorpos , Autoimunidade , PrognósticoRESUMO
PURPOSE: To investigate the association between the use of topical ß-blockers and subsequent asthma attacks in glaucoma patients with asthma. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study using an administrative claims database. All patients aged 20 years or older who were registered in the health insurance claims database updated and managed by JMDC Inc. (Tokyo, Japan). Patients who were newly prescribed eye drops for glaucoma treatment were identified between 2011 and 2017. The patients with glaucoma were divided into two groups: ß-blocker users and non-ß-blocker users, based on the presence of a ß-blocker in the prescribed eye drops. We investigated whether the incidence of asthma attacks in patients with previously treated asthma differed between the two groups. RESULTS: We categorized 17,666 patients in the ß-blocker-user group and 12,609 patients in the non-ß-blocker-user group. A total of 580 patients in the ß-blocker group (3.28%) and 847 in the non-ß-blocker group (6.72%) underwent asthma treatment before the prescription of anti-glaucoma eye drops (P < 0.001). Furthermore, 94 patients in the ß-blocker-user group (0.53%) and 278 in the non-ß-blocker user group (2.20%) were undergoing current treatment for asthma (P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios of asthma attacks were 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.46-1.16, P = 0.18) in patients with a history of asthma treatment and 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-2.70, P = 0.62) in patients with current asthma treatment, compared to the non-ß-blocker-user group. CONCLUSION: Our results clarified that several patients with asthma were prescribed topical ß-blockers for glaucoma treatment. However, asthma attacks may not be significantly attributed to topical ß-blockers, even in glaucoma patients under current asthma treatment. The administration of topical ß-blockers to asthma patients could be a treatment option in the absence of other treatment options, if adequate informed consent is obtained. Further studies are needed to draw a firm conclusion on this clinical question.
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Asma , Glaucoma , Administração Tópica , Antagonistas Adrenérgicos beta/efeitos adversos , Asma/diagnóstico , Asma/tratamento farmacológico , Asma/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Glaucoma/diagnóstico , Glaucoma/tratamento farmacológico , Glaucoma/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
PURPOSE: To assess the characteristics of glaucoma patients who received systemic or topical steroid treatment. METHODS: Patients who received steroid treatment were selected from a total of 4256 patients at our tertiary referral center of glaucoma management between August 2011 and October 2017. Clinical characteristics of the subjects were extracted from clinical records. To evaluate the factors influencing highest intraocular pressure during observation (max-IOP) or mean deviations (MDs) of visual field at the first and last visits, univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed using a generalized estimating equation. RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty-two eyes of 196 patients were included in this study. The most frequent disease as the reason for steroid treatment was atopic dermatitis (58 eyes) followed by autoimmune diseases. The patients with atopic dermatitis were significantly younger (38.0 ± 11.2 years old, p < 0.001) and had lower MD (- 9.3 ± 9.1 dB at first visit, p = 0.01; - 10.6 ± 9.2 dB at last visit, p = 0.004) than those with other diseases. In multivariate regression analysis, age and MD at first visit, max-IOP, and atopic dermatitis were correlated with MD at last visit. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study suggest that patients with atopic dermatitis carry the risk of irreversible visual field loss even in youth. For earlier detection of high intraocular pressure, reinforcement of ophthalmological screening in management of atopic dermatitis should be recommended.
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Dermatite Atópica , Glaucoma , Adolescente , Criança , Dermatite Atópica/diagnóstico , Dermatite Atópica/tratamento farmacológico , Dermatite Atópica/epidemiologia , Glaucoma/diagnóstico , Glaucoma/tratamento farmacológico , Glaucoma/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pressão Intraocular , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Esteroides , Campos VisuaisRESUMO
This study examined the effects of maternal healthy eating literacy (HEL) on healthy meal provision in Japanese families. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey with 1899 mothers of pre-school children. Participants were divided into two groups based on their median score of eating out and consuming convenience foods, and demographic variables were compared between these groups. We assessed associations between HEL and healthy meal provision using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and multiple linear regression with healthy meal provision as the dependent variable and HEL as the independent variable, adjusting for age, education, work styles, household income, number of children and whether participants lived with a partner. Mothers exhibiting high scores on eating out/consuming convenience foods were more likely to be employed (p = 0.004), have only one child (p = 0.034), have lower education (p=0.011) and exhibit lower healthy meal provision (p < 0.001) and HEL scores (p < 0.001). In addition, HEL was associated with healthy meal provision (ß = 0.34, p < 0.001). Among mothers with higher scores on eating out/consuming convenience foods, HEL was associated with healthy meal provision (ß = 0.32, p < 0.001). This study suggests that maternal HEL is associated with healthy meal provision regardless of the degree of eating out/consuming convenience food. Thus, interventions to improve maternal HEL can help mothers to provide healthy meals when they eat out or consume convenience foods as family meals.
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Dieta Saudável , Alfabetização , Criança , Estudos Transversais , Comportamento Alimentar , Feminino , Humanos , Japão , Refeições , MãesRESUMO
An S-S bond containing maleimide-conjugated closo-dodecaborate (SSMID) was synthesised for identification of albumin binding sites. Three Lys residues, Lys221, Lys413 and Lys431, were identified as SSMID modification sites in addition to Cys34 in bovin serum albumin (BSA). Fluorescent-labelled MID-BSA was found to be accumulated in the cytosol of HeLa cells.
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Compostos de Boro/química , Dissulfetos/química , Maleimidas/química , Soroalbumina Bovina/química , Animais , Sítios de Ligação , Compostos de Boro/síntese química , Bovinos , Células HeLa , Humanos , Estrutura MolecularRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Retinitis pigmentosa (RP), a neurodegenerative disease, is occasionally accompanied by choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and cystoid macular oedema. It is presently treated with repeated intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents. However, there are concerns regarding long-term inhibition of VEGF by the use of these agents, especially in cases involving neurodegenerative diseases, since VEGFs have a neuroprotective effect. Currently, there are no reports on the long-term safety of anti-VEGF therapy in patients with RP. CASE PRESENTATION: In this report, we describe the case of a 56-year-old female patient with CNV associated with RP who was treated with anti-VEGF therapy for 8 years. She had autosomal dominant RP with a heterozygous PRPH2 mutation (c.410G > A) and complained of metamorphopsia in her left eye. Examinations revealed CNV with serous retinal detachment. She was treated with as-needed injections for 2 years; however, she experienced a recurrence. Therefore, we switched to a bimonthly regimen that was continued for 6 years. In total, the patient received 34 injections of various types of anti-VEGFs over 8 years. No recurrences were noted during that time, and we have not detected any negative effects concerning the progression of visual field loss in comparison with the fellow eye. CONCLUSIONS: No negative effects related to the progression of visual field loss were observed during continuous treatment with anti-VEGF agents for 8 years in our patient.
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Bevacizumab/administração & dosagem , Ranibizumab/administração & dosagem , Retinose Pigmentar/tratamento farmacológico , Fator A de Crescimento do Endotélio Vascular/antagonistas & inibidores , Acuidade Visual , Inibidores da Angiogênese/administração & dosagem , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Injeções Intravítreas , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Retinose Pigmentar/diagnóstico , Fatores de Tempo , Tomografia de Coerência ÓpticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a prognostic indicator of poor outcome in myositis. Although the pathogenesis of myositis-associated ILD is not well understood, neutrophils are thought to play a pivotal role. Neutrophils store azurophil granules that contain defensins, which are antimicrobial peptides that regulate the inflammatory response. Here, we evaluated levels of the human neutrophil peptides (HNPs) α-defensin 1 through 3 in patients with myositis-associated ILD to determine whether HNPs represent disease markers and play a role in the pathogenesis of myositis-associated ILD. METHODS: HNP levels were measured in the plasma and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of 56 patients with myositis-associated ILD and 24 healthy controls by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: Analysis revealed significantly higher HNP levels in plasma and BALF samples from patients with myositis-associated ILD as compared to those of healthy controls; however, plasma HNPs were significantly correlated with total cell counts in BALF. Additionally, BALF HNP levels were positively correlated with serum surfactant protein-A and the percentage of neutrophils in BALF, and BALF HNP levels correlated with the percentage of reticular opacities in high-resolution computed tomography results for patients with anti-aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase (ARS) antibody positive myositis-associated ILD. Survival did not differ between patients with higher and lower levels of plasma and BALF HNPs. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and BALF HNPs might reflect the disease activities of myositis-associated ILD, especially in patients with anti-ARS antibody positive myositis-associated ILD. However further studies are necessary to clarify whether HNPs represent disease markers and play roles in disease pathogenesis.
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Líquido da Lavagem Broncoalveolar/química , Doenças Pulmonares Intersticiais/metabolismo , Miosite/complicações , alfa-Defensinas/análise , Idoso , Biomarcadores/análise , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática , Feminino , Humanos , Japão , Doenças Pulmonares Intersticiais/etiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Miosite/fisiopatologia , Neutrófilos/metabolismoRESUMO
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Mudança Climática , Incerteza , Clima , Planeta Terra , Previsões , PlantasRESUMO
PURPOSE: To compare atrophy of the choroid and retina between Bietti crystalline dystrophy (BCD) patients and EYS-related retinitis pigmentosa (RP) patients with a similar degree of central visual field defects, age, and axial length (AL). METHODS: Nine eyes of nine BCD patients with CYP4V2 mutations (BCD group) were examined. Moreover, we selected 10 eyes of 10 RP patients with EYS mutations matched for age, axial length, and mean deviation (measured with the 10-2 SITA standard program; EYS-RP group), and 10 eyes of 10 normal volunteers matched for age and axial length (control group). Macular thicknesses of the choroid and retina were measured via swept-source optical coherence tomography. RESULTS: The macular choroid was significantly thinner in the BCD group than in the EYS-RP and control groups, although the thickness did not significantly differ between the EYS-RP and control groups. The macular retina was significantly thinner in the BCD and EYS-RP groups than in the control group, although the thickness did not significantly differ between the BCD and EYS-RP groups at most sites. CONCLUSION: Bietti crystalline dystrophy patients with CYP4V2 mutations showed more severe macular choroid atrophy as compared to EYS-related RP patients. These different damage patterns suggest differences in choroidal expression between CYP4V2 and EYS.
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Corioide/patologia , Distrofias Hereditárias da Córnea/genética , Família 4 do Citocromo P450/genética , Proteínas do Olho/genética , Macula Lutea/patologia , Mutação , Doenças Retinianas/genética , Retinose Pigmentar/genética , Anormalidades Múltiplas , Adulto , Idoso , Atrofia/patologia , Lâmina Basilar da Corioide/patologia , Distrofias Hereditárias da Córnea/diagnóstico , Família 4 do Citocromo P450/metabolismo , DNA/genética , Análise Mutacional de DNA , Proteínas do Olho/metabolismo , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Retinianas/diagnóstico , Retinose Pigmentar/diagnóstico , Tomografia de Coerência ÓpticaRESUMO
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
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Agricultura/economia , Mudança Climática , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Modelos Econômicos , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Comércio/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Previsões , HumanosRESUMO
PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between the microstructure of ß-zone peripapillary atrophy (PPA) and the subsequent visual field (VF) progression in eyes with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), including highly myopic eyes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 129 patients with POAG who had been followed up for a minimum of 2 years and had undergone at least 5 reliable standard automated perimetry tests after spectral-domain (SD) optical coherence tomography (OCT) examination. METHODS: ß-Zone PPA was evaluated from 3 SD OCT scans centered on the optic disc. Upper and lower scans were defined as scans at 30° above and below the horizontal scan, respectively. From 3 scans of each eye, ß-zone PPA was classified as PPA(+BM) or PPA(-BM) on the basis of the presence or absence of Bruch's membrane (BM), respectively. Eyes were classified into 3 groups according to the horizontal scan images: group A (only PPA(+BM)), group B (both PPA(+BM) and PPA(-BM)), and group C (only PPA(-BM)). Factors associated with the subsequent mean deviation (MD) slope after OCT examination were analyzed, and the hemifield total deviation (TD) slope was assessed in eyes with unilateral hemifield VF defects in the corresponding direction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subsequent MD slope after OCT examination. RESULTS: The VF progression in group A was faster than in group C (P = 0.004). A larger PPA(+BM) width was associated with a faster MD slope in all eyes (P < 0.001) and highly myopic eyes (P < 0.001) and with a faster TD slope in eyes with superior or inferior hemifield VF defects in the corresponding direction (P = 0.002 and P = 0.035, respectively). A larger PPA(-BM) was correlated with a slower MD slope in all eyes (P = 0.030 and P = 0.034) but not in highly myopic eyes. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences in VF progression according to the microstructure of the ß-zone PPA in eyes with POAG. The PPA(+BM) width may be an important risk factor for VF progression in POAG, including high myopia, and the PPA(-BM) width may have a protective effect for VF progression in this subtype of POAG.
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Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto/diagnóstico , Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto/tratamento farmacológico , Atrofia Óptica/patologia , Transtornos da Visão/diagnóstico , Campos Visuais , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Anti-Hipertensivos/uso terapêutico , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Gonioscopia , Humanos , Imageamento Tridimensional , Pressão Intraocular/fisiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Miopia Degenerativa/diagnóstico , Disco Óptico/patologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Tomografia de Coerência Óptica , Tonometria Ocular , Testes de Campo VisualRESUMO
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Modelos Teóricos , Biodiversidade , IncertezaRESUMO
PURPOSE: To investigate the dissociation of the Bruch's membrane opening (BMO) from the scleral canal opening (SO) of the optic disc. METHODS: In this prospective, cross-sectional, observational study, 101 eyes from 101 patients or suspected subjects of primary open angle glaucoma were included. Enhanced depth imaging spectral domain optical coherence tomography images along the long axis of the optic disc were used to visualize better the deep structures around the optic disc on both the temporal and nasal sides. The distances between the BMO and SO were measured at the temporal and nasal sides of the optic disc, and their correlations with age, axial length, intraocular pressure, disc size, disc ovality index, disc torsion degree, and visual field mean deviation were investigated. RESULTS: The temporal and nasal distances of BMO from SO correlated significantly with each other (R = 0.632, P < 0.0001). By multiple linear regression analysis, significant correlations were found for disc ovality index (temporal: ß = -0.691, P < 0.0001; nasal: ß = -0.420, P < 0.0001) and axial length (temporal: ß = 0.224, P = 0.002; nasal: ß = 0.310, P = 0.001). The other factors did not show any significant correlation. CONCLUSION: Locations of the SO at not only the temporal, but also the nasal side of the optic disc are nasally shifted from the BMO with optic disc tilting and axial length elongation in glaucomatous eyes, and are significantly correlated to each other. The nasal shift of the deep structures of the optic disc should be considered especially when assessing myopic eyes with optic disc tilt.
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Lâmina Basilar da Corioide/patologia , Glaucoma de Ângulo Aberto/diagnóstico , Disco Óptico/patologia , Doenças do Nervo Óptico/diagnóstico , Esclera/patologia , Anormalidade Torcional/diagnóstico , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Comprimento Axial do Olho/patologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Pressão Intraocular , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Tomografia de Coerência Óptica , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.
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Mudança Climática , Fome , Produtos Agrícolas , Ingestão de Energia , Alimentos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pobreza , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Modelos Teóricos , Agricultura/métodos , Previsões , Humanos , IncertezaRESUMO
Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of orally administered branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) on disease progression in patients with retinitis pigmentosa (RP). Methods: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study was conducted at the Kyoto University Hospital. Seventy patients with RP aged 20 years or above were randomly assigned to the TK-98 (a combination of BCAAs in granule form) or placebo group. One packet (4.15 g) of the study drug was administered orally thrice daily for 78 weeks. Results: There was no significant difference in the rate of change in the total point score, the primary endpoint, between the TK-98 (-52.4 ± 10.3 dB/year) and placebo (-42.9 ± 13.8 dB/year) groups. Ellipsoid zone length decreased by -76.5 ± 8.9 and -95.5 ± 12.2 µm/year in the TK-98 and placebo groups, respectively; although this difference was not significant, the TK-98 group showed slower degeneration. No serious adverse events were associated with the oral administration of TK-98 in patients with RP. Conclusions: This study did not yield conclusive evidence supporting BCAA combination granules' effectiveness in slowing visual field progression in patients with RP. An insignificant trend toward a slower reduction in ellipsoid zone length was found in morphological tests. Further studies are required to fully understand the potential benefits of BCAA supplementation in RP. Translational Relevance: Our study demonstrates the safety of administering BCAAs to patients with RP. Accordingly, larger, more homogeneous clinical studies with longer durations may suggest their potential as therapeutic agents.