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Studies suggest a link between particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but to our knowledge critical exposure windows have not been examined. We performed a case-control study in the Danish population spanning the years 1989-2013. Cases were selected from the Danish National Patient Registry based on International Classification of Diseases codes. Five controls were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registry and matched to a case on vital status, age, and sex. PM2.5 concentration at residential addresses was assigned using monthly predictions from a dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for confounding. We evaluated exposure to averaged PM2.5 concentrations 12-24 months, 2-6 years, and 2-11 years pre-ALS diagnosis; annual lagged exposures up to 11 years prediagnosis; and cumulative associations for exposure in lags 1-5 years and 1-10 years prediagnosis, allowing for varying association estimates by year. We identified 3,983 cases and 19,915 controls. Cumulative exposure to PM2.5 in the period 2-6 years prediagnosis was associated with ALS (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.13). Exposures in the second, third, and fourth years prediagnosis were individually associated with higher odds of ALS (e.g., for lag 1, OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). Exposure to PM2.5 within 6 years before diagnosis may represent a critical exposure window for ALS.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica , Humanos , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica/epidemiologia , Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica/etiologia , Fatores de Risco , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Prior reviews synthesized findings of studies on long-term cardiac complications of COVID-19. However, the reporting and methodological quality of these studies has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on long-term cardiac complications of COVID-19 and examined patterns of reported findings by study quality and characteristics. METHODS: We searched for studies examining long-term cardiac complications of COVID-19 that persisted for 4 weeks and over. A customized Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) was used to evaluate the quality of included studies. Meta-analysis was performed to generate prevalence estimates of long-term cardiac complications across studies. Stratified analyses were further conducted to examine the prevalence of each complication by study quality and characteristics. The GRADE approach was used to determine the level of evidence for complications included in the meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total number of 150 studies describing 57 long-term cardiac complications were included in this review, and 137 studies reporting 17 complications were included in the meta-analysis. Only 25.3% (n = 38) of studies were of high quality based on the NOS quality assessment. Chest pain and arrhythmia were the most widely examined long-term complications. When disregarding study quality and characteristics, summary prevalence estimates for chest and arrhythmia were 9.79% (95% CI 7.24-13.11) and 8.22% (95% CI 6.46-10.40), respectively. However, stratified analyses showed that studies with low-quality scores, small sample sizes, unsystematic sampling methods, and cross-sectional design were more likely to report a higher prevalence of complications. For example, the prevalence of chest pain was 22.17% (95% CI 14.40-32.55), 11.08% (95% CI 8.65-14.09), and 3.89% (95% CI 2.49-6.03) in studies of low, medium, and high quality, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for arrhythmia and other less examined long-term cardiac complications. CONCLUSION: There is a wide spectrum of long-term cardiac complications of COVID-19. Reported findings from previous studies are strongly related to study quality, sample sizes, sampling methods, and designs, underscoring the need for high-quality epidemiologic studies to characterize these complications and understand their etiology.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Arritmias Cardíacas/epidemiologia , Arritmias Cardíacas/etiologia , Dor no PeitoRESUMO
The health effects of PM2.5 exposure have become a major public concern in developing countries. Identifying major PM2.5 sources and quantifying the health effects at the population level are essential for controlling PM2.5 pollution and formulating targeted emissions reduction policies. In the current study, we have obtained PM2.5 mass data and used positive matrix factorization to identify the major sources of PM2.5. We evaluated the relationship between short-term exposure to PM2.5 sources and mortality or hospital admissions in Beijing, China, using 441â¯742 deaths and 9â¯420â¯305 hospital admissions from 2013 to 2018. We found positive associations for coal combustion and road dust sources with mortality. Increased hospital admission risks were significantly associated with sources of vehicle exhaust, coal combustion, secondary sulfates, and secondary nitrates. Compared to the cool season, excess mortality risk estimates of coal combustion source were significantly higher in the warm season. Our findings show that reducing more toxic sources of PM2.5, especially coal emissions, and developing clean energy alternatives can have critical implications for improving air quality and protecting public health.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Pequim , China , Monitoramento Ambiental , Hospitais , Material Particulado/análise , Estações do Ano , Emissões de Veículos/análiseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early childhood overweight and obesity is a growing public health concern worldwide. Few recent studies have addressed how time trends varied by sociodemographic characteristics at the regional level using large and high-quality data. This study determines how time trends vary in the prevalence of early childhood overweight and obesity by age, gender, and migration background at the regional level. METHODS: We used a Kernel-density curve to describe the BMI distribution, and evaluated the trends of overweight and obesity by age, gender, and migration background using logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean BMI and the overall prevalence of overweight and obesity increased among preschool children aged 4-6 years in the Rhine-Neckar County and the City of Heidelberg. After adjusting for age, sex, and migration background, trends of overweight significantly increased only among male children in the age 5 year group with migration background (P < 0.05), and an upward trend of obesity was observed only among male children in the age 5 year group and female children in the age 6 year group with migration background (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: BMI distribution as well as general prevalence of overweight and obesity are still increasing among preschool children. Children with migration backgrounds, particularly male children in the age 5 year groups and female children in the age 6 year group should be prioritized. Health promotion strategies for children with migration backgrounds will help address this challenge.
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Sobrepeso , Obesidade Infantil , Índice de Massa Corporal , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Sobrepeso/epidemiologia , Obesidade Infantil/epidemiologia , PrevalênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Air pollution health studies have been increasingly using prediction models for exposure assessment even in areas without monitoring stations. To date, most studies have assumed that a single exposure model is correct, but estimated effects may be sensitive to the choice of exposure model. METHODS: We obtained county-level daily cardiovascular (CVD) admissions from the New York (NY) Statewide Planning and Resources Cooperative System (SPARCS) and four sets of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) spatio-temporal predictions (2002-2012). We employed overdispersed Poisson models to investigate the relationship between daily PM2.5 and CVD, adjusting for potential confounders, separately for each state-wide PM2.5 dataset. RESULTS: For all PM2.5 datasets, we observed positive associations between PM2.5 and CVD. Across the modeled exposure estimates, effect estimates ranged from 0.23% (95%CI: -0.06, 0.53%) to 0.88% (95%CI: 0.68, 1.08%) per 10 µg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5. We observed the highest estimates using monitored concentrations 0.96% (95%CI: 0.62, 1.30%) for the subset of counties where these data were available. CONCLUSIONS: Effect estimates varied by a factor of almost four across methods to model exposures, likely due to varying degrees of exposure measurement error. Nonetheless, we observed a consistently harmful association between PM2.5 and CVD admissions, regardless of model choice.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , New York/epidemiologia , Material Particulado/análiseRESUMO
Based on studies focusing on positron emission tomography (PET)-computed tomography (CT) combined with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the diagnosis of glioma, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the pros and cons and the accuracy of different examinations. PubMed and Cochrane Library were searched. The search was conducted until April 2017. Two reviewers independently conducted the literature search according to the criteria set initially. Based on the exclusion criteria, 15 articles are included in this study. Of all studies that used MRI examination, there are five involving 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET, five involving 11C-methionine-PET, five involving 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine-PET, and three involving 18F-fluorothymidine-PET. Due to the limitations such as lack of data, small sample size, and unrepresentative studies, we use a non-quantitative methodology. MRI examination can provide the anatomy information of glioma more clearly. PET-CT examinations based on tumor metabolism using different tracers have more advantages in determining the degree of glioma malignancy and boundaries. However, information provided by PET-CT of different tracers is not the same. With respect to the novel hybrid MRI/PET examination equipment proposed in recent years, the combination of MRI and PET-CT can definitively improve the diagnostic accuracy of glioma.
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Neoplasias Encefálicas/diagnóstico por imagem , Glioma/diagnóstico por imagem , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Tomografia por Emissão de Pósitrons combinada à Tomografia Computadorizada , Humanos , Compostos RadiofarmacêuticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Children are a susceptible population to exposure of ambient fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5), and the associated symptoms are sensitive prevalent indicators of morbidity. However, few studies to date investigate the association between PM2.5 exposure and school absence and symptoms. METHODS: In a panel study including 20,291 observations in 615 schoolchildren 8-13 years of age, we asked the participants to record their school absence and symptoms on every school day from 17 November to 31 December 2014 in Jinan, China. We used the generalized linear mixed effects models to examine the adverse effects of ambient PM2.5 on school absence and symptoms, adjusting for covariates including meteorological and individual factors. RESULTS: The 3-day moving average of PM2.5 was significantly associated with school absence (1.37; 95% CI: 1.07-1.74) and increases in symptoms of the throat (1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05), nose (1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), and skin (1.09; 95% CI: 1.06-1.12). High PM2.5 exposure also increased the risks of individual symptoms, especially for cough (1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), sneezing (1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.07), and stuffy nose (1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17). CONCLUSION: High PM2.5 exposure is a risk factor for the health of schoolchildren. Allocation of medical resources for children should take into account the ambient PM2.5 concentrations and be proportioned accordingly.
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Absenteísmo , Tosse/induzido quimicamente , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Adolescente , Criança , China/epidemiologia , Tosse/diagnóstico , Epistaxe/diagnóstico , Exantema/diagnóstico , Feminino , Febre/diagnóstico , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Meteorologia , Morbidade , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Faringite/diagnóstico , Prevalência , Prurido , Fatores de Risco , Espirro , Escarro/metabolismo , Avaliação de Sintomas , Temperatura , Poluição Relacionada com o TráfegoRESUMO
There is a rising concern that fine particle (PM2.5) compositions may play an important role in explaining PM2.5-related mortality risks. However, PM2.5 constituents responsible for these risks have not yet been determined. To date, there are few PM2.5 constituent health studies in developing countries. We adopted a time-series approach, using generalized linear regression models to examine associations between short-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents and mortality. We analyzed data stratified by sex and by age groups (<65, 65-74, and >74) from 2013 to 2015 in Beijing, China. We also investigated seasonal patterns of such associations. For a 0 day lag, interquartile range increases in potassium, calcium, magnesium, and organic carbon were associated with 0.51% (95% CI: 0.17-0.85), 2.07% (95% CI: 0.71-3.44), 0.26% (95% CI: 0.08-0.44), and 2.65% (95% CI: 0.18-5.18) increases in respiratory mortality, and sulfate with a 1.57% (95% CI: 0.04-3.12) increase in cardiovascular mortality. In the season-stratified analysis, the association of some constituents (potassium, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, sulfate, and organic carbon) with respiratory mortality appeared to be stronger in cold seasons than in warm seasons. Older adults (65-74) may be susceptible to certain compositions. Our findings provide evidence that link PM2.5 constituents with mortality and suggest that adverse effects vary among constituents in different seasons.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Idoso , Pequim , China , Humanos , Tamanho da Partícula , Material Particulado , Estações do AnoRESUMO
China is one of the largest producers and consumers of coal in the world. The National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China (2013-2017) particularly aimed to reduce emissions from coal combustion. Here, we show whether the acute health effects of PM2.5 changed from 2013 to 2018 and factors that might account for any observed changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the surrounding areas where there were major reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. We used a two-stage analysis strategy, with a quasi-Poisson regression model and a random effects meta-analysis, to assess the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in the 47 counties of BTH. We found that the mean daily PM2.5 levels and the SO42- component ratio dramatically decreased in the study period, which was likely related to the control of coal emissions. Subsequently, the acute effects of PM2.5 were significantly decreased for total and circulatory mortality. A 10â µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations was associated with a 0.16% (95% CI: 0.08, 0.24%) and 0.02% (95% CI: -0.09, 0.13%) increase in mortality from 2013 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2018, respectively. The changes in air pollution sources or PM2.5 components appeared to have played a core role in reducing the health effects. The air pollution control measures implemented recently targeting coal emissions taken in China may have resulted in significant health benefits.
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Urban street trees offer cities critical environmental and social benefits. In New York City (NYC), a decadal census of every street tree is conducted to help understand and manage the urban forest. However, it has previously been impossible to analyze growth of an individual tree because of uncertainty in tree location. This study overcomes this limitation using a three-step alignment process for identifying individual trees with ZIP Codes, address, and species instead of map coordinates. We estimated individual growth rates for 126,362 street trees (59 species and 19% of 2015 trees) using the difference between diameter at breast height (DBH) from the 2005 and 2015 tree censuses. The tree identification method was verified by locating and measuring the DBH of select trees and measuring a set of trees annually for over 5 years. We examined determinants of tree growth rates and explored their spatial distribution. In our newly created NYC tree growth database, fourteen species have over 1000 unique trees. The three most abundant tree species vary in growth rates; London Planetree (n = 32,056, 0.163 in/yr) grew the slowest compared to Honeylocust (n = 15,967, 0.356 in/yr), and Callery Pear (n = 15,902, 0.334 in/yr). Overall, Silver Linden was the fastest growing species (n = 1,149, 0.510 in/yr). Ordinary least squares regression that incorporated biological factors including size and the local urban form indicated that species was the major factor controlling growth rates, and tree stewardship had only a small effect. Furthermore, tree measurements by volunteer community scientists were as accurate as those made by NYC staff. Examining city wide patterns of tree growth indicates that areas with a higher Social Vulnerability Index have higher than expected growth rates. Continued efforts in street tree planting should utilize known growth rates while incorporating community voices to better provide long-term ecosystem services across NYC.
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Cidades , Árvores , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Cidade de Nova Iorque , FlorestasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Ambient ozone pollution is steadily increasing and becoming a major environmental risk factor contributing to the global disease burden. Although the association between short-term ozone exposure and mortality has been widely studied, results are mostly reported on deaths from non-accidental or total cardiopulmonary disease rather than a spectrum of causes. In particular, a knowledge gap still exists for the potential thresholds in mortality risks. METHODS: This nationwide time-series study in China included 323 counties totaling 230,266,168 residents. Daily maximum 8-hour average was calculated as the ozone exposure metric. A two-stage statistical approach was adopted to assess ozone effects on 21 cause-specific deaths for 2013-2018. The subset approach and threshold approach were utilized to explore potential thresholds, and stratification analysis was used to evaluate population susceptibility. RESULTS: On average, the annual mean ozone concentration was 93.4 µg/m3 across 323 counties. A 10-µg/m3 increase in lag 0-1 day of ozone was associated with increases of 0.12 % in mortality risk from non-accidental disease, 0.11 % from circulatory disease, 0.09 % from respiratory disease, 0.29 % from urinary system disease, and 0.20 % from nervous system disease. There may be a "safe" threshold in the ozone-mortality association, which may be between 60 and 100 µg/m3, and vary by cause of death. Women and older adults (especially those over 75) are more affected by short-term ozone exposure. Populations in North China had a higher risk of ozone-related circulatory mortality, while populations in South China had a higher risk of ozone-related respiratory mortality. CONCLUSIONS: National findings link short-term ozone exposure to premature death from circulatory, respiratory, neurological, and urinary diseases, and provide evidence for a potential "safe" threshold in the association of ozone and mortality. These findings have important implications for helping policymakers tighten the relevant air quality standards and developing early warning systems for public health protection in China.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Ozônio/efeitos adversos , Ozônio/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Causas de Morte , Estações do Ano , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , China/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Material Particulado/análise , MortalidadeRESUMO
In recent years, there has been growing interest in developing air pollution prediction models to reduce exposure measurement error in epidemiologic studies. However, efforts for localized, fine-scale prediction models have been predominantly focused in the United States and Europe. Furthermore, the availability of new satellite instruments such as the TROPOsopheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) provides novel opportunities for modeling efforts. We estimated daily ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area at 1-km2 grids from 2005 to 2019 using a four-stage approach. In stage 1 (imputation stage), we imputed missing satellite NO2 column measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOMI using the random forest (RF) approach. In stage 2 (calibration stage), we calibrated the association of column NO2 to ground-level NO2 using ground monitors and meteorological features using RF and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. In stage 3 (prediction stage), we predicted the stage 2 model over each 1-km2 grid in our study area, then ensembled the results using a generalized additive model (GAM). In stage 4 (residual stage), we used XGBoost to model the local component at the 200-m2 scale. The cross-validated R2 of the RF and XGBoost models in stage 2 were 0.75 and 0.86 respectively, and 0.87 for the ensembled GAM. Cross-validated rootmean-squared error (RMSE) of the GAM was 3.95 µg/m3. Using novel approaches and newly available remote sensing data, our multi-stage model presented high cross-validated fits and reconstructs fine-scale NO2 estimates for further epidemiologic studies in Mexico City.
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Background: There is growing body of literature on the long-term cardiac symptoms following COVID-19. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize and evaluate related evidence to inform clinical management and future studies. Methods: We searched two preprint and seven peer-reviewed article databases from January 1, 2020 to January 8, 2022 for studies investigating cardiac symptoms that persisted for at least 4 weeks among individuals who survived COVID-19. A customized Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to evaluate the quality of included studies. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate the proportion of symptoms with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and stratified analyses were conducted to quantify the proportion of symptoms by study characteristics and quality. Results: A total of 101 studies describing 49 unique long-term cardiac symptoms met the inclusion criteria. Based on quality assessment, only 15.8% of the studies (n=16) were of high quality, and most studies scored poorly on sampling representativeness. The two most examined symptoms were chest pain and arrhythmia. Meta-analysis showed that the proportion of chest pain was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.4-15.5) and arrhythmia was 9.8% (95% CI: 5.4-17.2). Stratified analyses showed that studies with low-quality score, small sample size, unsystematic sampling method, and cross-sectional design were most likely to report high proportions of symptoms. For example, the proportion of chest pain was 21.3% (95% CI: 10.5-38.5), 9.3% (95% CI: 6.0-14.0), and 4.0% (95% CI: 1.3-12.0) in studies with low, medium, and high-quality scores, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for other cardiac symptoms including hypertension, cardiac abnormalities, myocardial injury, thromboembolism, stroke, heart failure, coronary disease, and myocarditis. Discussion: There is a wide spectrum of long-term cardiac symptoms following COVID-19. Findings of existing studies are strongly related to study quality, size and design, underscoring the need for high-quality epidemiologic studies to characterize these symptoms and understand their etiology.
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BACKGROUND: Short-term fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and increased circulatory mortality have been well documented. However, there are inconsistent findings on mortality effects of traffic-related pollutants from the perspective of sources or constituents. Few studies have examined such associations using source and constituents simultaneously, and even less are based on large-scale, nationally representative data. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis to investigate source- and constituent-specific mortality effects due to traffic-related PM2.5 pollution in China. METHODS: We extracted daily mortality data in 280 counties from the China Disease Surveillance Points system (DSPs) from January 2013 to December 2018. Daily concentrations of traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The downscaling and adjustment methods were carried out to generate a refined exposure assessment. We estimated the circulatory mortality risk using a standard two-stage approach, combining generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We observed that traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents were significantly associated with increased circulatory mortality. An increase of interquartile range of traffic-related PM2.5, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and nitrate (NO3-) were associated with elevated circulatory mortality risks of 1.80 % (95 % confidence interval, CI: 1.27, 2.33), 1.85 % (1.33, 2.37), 1.42 % (0.90, 1.94), and 1.10 % (0.55, 1.66) at 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days), respectively. We also found relatively high associations between traffic-related PM2.5 and EC exposures and cardiovascular mortality, and OC exposure and cerebrovascular mortality. Moreover, our stratified analysis demonstrated such mortality risks tended to be stronger in males, individuals age 65 years or older, and during the cold season. CONCLUSION: Our findings provided robust evidence on significant associations of traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents with circulatory mortality. Further emissions abatement from the transportation sector and corresponding pollutants should merit a particular focus in China.
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Humanos , Idoso , China/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been linked to obesity while higher ambient temperatures typically reduce metabolic demand in a compensatory manner. Both relationships may impact glucose metabolism, thus we examined the association between intermediate- and long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ambient temperature and glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c), a longer-term marker of glucose control. METHODS: We assessed 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month average air pollution and ambient temperature at 1-km2 spatial resolution via satellite remote sensing models (2013-2019), and assessed HbA1c at four, six, and eight years postpartum in women enrolled in the Programming Research in Obesity, Growth, Environment and Social Stressors (PROGRESS) cohort based in Mexico City. PM2.5 and ambient temperature were matched to participants' addresses and confirmed by GPS tracker. Using linear mixed-effects models, we examined the association between 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month average PM2.5 and ambient temperature with repeated log-transformed HbA1c values. All models included a random intercept for each woman and were adjusted for calendar year, season, and individual-level confounders (age, marital status, smoking, alcohol consumption level, and education level). RESULTS: We analyzed 1,265 HbA1c measurements of 484 women. Per 1 µg/m3 increase in 3-month and 6-month PM2.5, HbA1c levels increased by 0.28% (95% confidence interval (95 %CI): 0.14, 0.42%) and 0.28% (95 %CI: 0.04, 0.52%) respectively. No association was seen for 12-month average PM2.5. Per 1 °C increase in ambient temperature, HbA1c levels decreased by 0.63% (95 %CI: -1.06, -0.21%) and 0.61% (95 %CI: -1.08, -0.13%), while the 12-month average again is not associated with HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Intermediate-term exposure to PM2.5 and ambient temperature are associated with opposing changes in HbA1c levels, in this region of high PM2.5 and moderate temperature fluctuation. These effects, measurable in mid-adult life, may portend future risk of type 2 diabetes and possible heart disease.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Adulto , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Humanos , Obesidade , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise , TemperaturaRESUMO
What is already known about this topic? Dramatic heatwaves frequently occurred simultaneously with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide in 2020 and posed public health challenges. Public risk perceptions and behavioral responses to this compound risk need to be addressed. What is added by this report? During heatwaves, the proportion of individuals who perceived COVID-19 to be more concerning than heatwaves decreased by 9.4%, and the behavior of continuously wearing masks reduced by 20.6%. Heatwave exposures also corresponded to an average decline of 58% in the likelihood of continuously wearing masks and a decline of 41% in taking well-ventilated public transportation. What are the implications for public health practice? At-risk populations should be effectively prepared to respond to compounded risks from heatwaves occurring at the same time as COVID-19 outbreaks to better address threats caused by climate change.
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Ambient ozone (O3) concentrations have shown an upward trend in China and its health hazards have also been recognized in recent years. High-resolution exposure data based on statistical models are needed. Our study aimed to build high-performance random forest (RF) models based on training data from 2013 to 2017 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China at a 0.01 ° × 0.01 ° resolution, and estimated daily maximum 8h average O3 (O3-8hmax) concentration, daily average O3 (O3-mean) concentration, and daily maximum 1h O3 (O3-1hmax) concentration from 2010 to 2017. Model features included meteorological variables, chemical transport model output variables, geographic variables, and population data. The test-R2 of sample-based O3-8hmax, O3-mean and O3-1hmax models were all greater than 0.80, while the R2 of site-based and date-based model were 0.68-0.87. From 2010 to 2017, O3-8hmax, O3-mean, and O3-1hmax concentrations in the BTH region increased by 4.18 µg/m3, 0.11 µg/m3, and 4.71 µg/m3, especially in more developed regions. Due to the influence of weather conditions, which showed high contribution to the model, the long-term spatial distribution of O3 concentrations indicated a similar pattern as altitude, where high concentration levels were distributed in regions with higher altitude.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Pequim , China , Monitoramento Ambiental , Ozônio/análise , Material Particulado/análiseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The substantial disease burden attributed to heat waves, and their increasing frequency and intensity due to climate change, highlight the importance of understanding the health consequences of heat waves. We explore the mortality risk due to heat wave characteristics, including the timing in the seasons, the day of the heat wave, the intensity and the duration, and the modifying effect of temperature zones. METHODS: Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with a temperature ≥99th percentile for the county from 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, timing in the season, and day of the heat wave. Within each county, we estimated the total non-accidental death and cardiovascular disease mortality during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days by controlling for potential confounders in summer. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using a random-effects model to calculate overall effects at the temperature zone and national levels. RESULTS: The average daily total number of non-accidental deaths was nine in the warm season (across all the counties). Approximately half of the daily total number of non-accidental deaths were cardiovascular-related deaths (approximately four persons per day). The average and maximum temperatures across the study area were 23.1 °C (range: -1.2-35.9 °C) and 28.3 °C (range: 5.4-42.8 °C), respectively. The average relative humidity during the study was 68.9% (range: 8.0-100.0%). Heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 15.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.5, 18.9] compared with non-heat wave periods, and the risk of cardiovascular-related death increases by 22.0% (95% CI: 16.9, 27.4). The risk of non-accidental death during the first heat wave of the season increases by 16.3% (95% CI: 12.6, 20.2), the risk during the second heat wave increases by 6.3% (95% CI: 2.8, 9.9) and during subsequent heat waves increases by -2.1% (95% CI: -4.6, 0.4). The first day and the second to third days of heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 11.7% (95% CI: 7.6, 15.9) and 17.0% (95% CI: 13.1, 21.0), respectively. Effects of heat waves on mortality lasted more than 4 days (6.3%, 95% CI: 2.4, 10.5) and are non-significantly different from the first day of heat waves. We found non-significant differences of the heat wave-associated mortality risks across mid-, warm and subtropical temperature zones. CONCLUSIONS: In China, the effect of heat waves on mortality is acute, and varies by certain characteristics of heat waves. Given these results, national heat wave early warning systems should be developed, as well as precautions and protection warranted according to characteristics of heat waves.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Temperatura Alta , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Mortalidade , Estações do Ano , TemperaturaRESUMO
Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.
RESUMO
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a well-established traffic emissions tracer and has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes. Short- and long-term exposure to NO2 has been studied and is well-documented in existing literature, but information on intermediate-term NO2 effects and mortality is lacking, despite biological plausibility. We obtained daily NO2 and mortality data from 42 counties in China from 2013 to 2015. Distributed-lag non-linear models were employed to investigate the relationship between non-accidental mortality and NO2 up to 30 days before the event, including PM2.5, temperature, relative humidity, and holidays as covariates in a random effects meta-analysis pooling county-specific estimates. We repeated the analysis for cardiovascular- and respiratory-related mortality, and explored sex-stratified associations. Per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2, we estimated a 0.13% (95%CI: 0.03, 0.23%), 0.57% (95%CI: -0.04, 1.18%), and -0.14% (95%CI: -1.63, 1.37%) change in non-accidental mortality for same-day and previous-day NO2 (lag0-1 cumulated), in the preceding 7 days (lag0-7 cumulated), and in the preceding 30 days (lag0-30 cumulated), respectively. The strongest estimate was observed for respiratory-related mortality in the lag0-30 cumulated effect for women (3.12%; 95%CI: -1.66, 8.13%). We observed a trend of higher effect estimates of intermediate-term NO2 exposure on respiratory mortality compared to that of the short-term, although the differences were not statistically significant. Our results at longer lags for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were sensitive to modeling choices. Future work should further investigate intermediate-term air pollution exposure given their potential biological relevance, but in larger scale settings.