Correction: Why Lyme disease is common in the northern US, but rare in the south: The roles of host choice, host-seeking behavior, and tick density.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001066.].

Why Lyme disease is common in the northern US, but rare in the south: The roles of host choice, host-seeking behavior, and tick density.

Lyme disease is common in the northeastern United States, but rare in the southeast, even though the tick vector is found in both regions. Infection prevalence of Lyme spirochetes in host-seeking ticks, an important component to the risk of Lyme disease, is also high in the northeast and northern midwest, but declines sharply in the south. As ticks must acquire Lyme spirochetes from infected vertebrate hosts, the role of wildlife species composition on Lyme disease risk has been a topic of lively academic discussion. We compared tick-vertebrate host interactions using standardized sampling methods among 8 sites scattered throughout the eastern US. Geographical trends in diversity of tick hosts are gradual and do not match the sharp decline in prevalence at southern sites, but tick-host associations show a clear shift from mammals in the north to reptiles in the south. Tick infection prevalence declines north to south largely because of high tick infestation of efficient spirochete reservoir hosts (rodents and shrews) in the north but not in the south. Minimal infestation of small mammals in the south results from strong selective attachment to lizards such as skinks (which are inefficient reservoirs for Lyme spirochetes) in the southern states. Selective host choice, along with latitudinal differences in tick host-seeking behavior and variations in tick densities, explains the geographic pattern of Lyme disease in the eastern US.

Social learning in a nocturnal marsupial: is it a possum-ability?

Social learning can reduce the costs associated with trial-and-error learning. There is speculation that social learning could contribute to trap and bait avoidance in invasive species like the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)-a marsupial for which social learning has not previously been investigated. In large outdoor pens, we presented wild-caught 'demonstrator' possums with puzzle devices containing an attractive food reward; 2 of 8 demonstrators accessed the reward the first night the puzzle was presented and another three succeeded on later nights. Meanwhile, 'observer' possums in adjacent pens watched the demonstrators for five nights and then were given the opportunity to solve the puzzle themselves; 15 of 15 succeeded on their first night (a highly significant improvement). This experiment thus provides strong evidence of social learning by common brushtail possums. Future research should investigate whether information about aversive stimuli (such as traps and toxic baits) can similarly be transmitted between possums by social learning; if so, this could have important implications for possum pest control.

Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease.

Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors-proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river-collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect I. scapularis already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where I. scapularis will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.

Increasing Prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-Infected Blacklegged Ticks in Tennessee Valley, Tennessee, USA.

In 2017, we surveyed forests in the upper Tennessee Valley, Tennessee, USA. We found Ixodes scapularis ticks established in 23 of 26 counties, 4 of which had Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected ticks. Public health officials should be vigilant for increasing Lyme disease incidence in this region.

High Prevalence of Borrelia miyamotoi among Adult Blacklegged Ticks from White-Tailed Deer.

We compared the prevalence of Borrelia miyamotoi infection in questing and deer-associated adult Ixodes scapularis ticks in Wisconsin, USA. Prevalence among deer-associated ticks (4.5% overall, 7.1% in females) was significantly higher than among questing ticks (1.0% overall, 0.6% in females). Deer may be a sylvatic reservoir for this newly recognized zoonotic pathogen.

A Dynamic Population Model to Investigate Effects of Climate and Climate-Independent Factors on the Lifecycle of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae).

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

Borrelia burgdorferi not confirmed in human-biting Amblyomma americanum ticks from the southeastern United States.

The predominant human-biting tick throughout the southeastern United States is Amblyomma americanum. Its ability to transmit pathogens causing Lyme disease-like illnesses is a subject of ongoing controversy. Results of previous testing by the Department of Defense Human Tick Test Kit Program and other laboratories indicated that it is highly unlikely that A. americanum transmits any pathogen that causes Lyme disease. In contrast, a recent publication by Clark and colleagues (K. L. Clark, B. Leydet, and S. Hartman, Int. J. Med. Sci. 10:915-931, 2013) reported detection of Lyme group Borrelia in A. americanum using a nested-flagellin-gene PCR. We evaluated this assay by using it and other assays to test 1,097 A. americanum ticks collected from humans. Using the Clark assay, in most samples we observed nonspecific amplification and nonrepeatability of results on subsequent testing of samples. Lack of reaction specificity and repeatability is consistent with mispriming, likely due to high primer concentrations and low annealing temperatures in this protocol. In six suspect-positive samples, Borrelia lonestari was identified by sequencing of an independent gene region; this is not a Lyme group spirochete and is not considered zoonotic. B. burgdorferi was weakly amplified from one pool using some assays, but not others, and attempts to sequence the amplicon of this pool failed, as did attempts to amplify and sequence B. burgdorferi from the five individual samples comprising this pool. Therefore, B. burgdorferi was not confirmed in any sample. Our results do not support the hypothesis that A. americanum ticks are a vector for Lyme group Borrelia infections.

Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models.

The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.

Selective Host Attachment by Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae): Tick-Lizard Associations in the Southeastern United States.

Questing behavior and host associations of immature blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis Say, from the southeastern United States are known to differ from those in the north. To elucidate these relationships we describe host associations of larval and nymphal I. scapularis from 8 lizard species sampled from 5 sites in the southeastern U.S. Larvae and nymphs attached in greater numbers to larger lizards than to smaller lizards, with differential levels of attachment to different lizard species. Blacklegged ticks are generally attached to skinks of the genus Plestiodon in greater numbers per unit lizard weight than to anoles (Anolis) or fence lizards (Sceloporus). The broad-headed skink, Plestiodon laticeps (Schneider), was a particularly important host for immature I. scapularis in our study and in several previous studies of tick-host associations in the southeast. Blacklegged ticks show selective attachment to Plestiodon lizard hosts in the southeast, but whether this results from behavioral host preferences or from ecological factors such as timing or microhabitat distributions of tick questing and host activity remains to be determined.

Patterns of deer ked (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) and tick (Ixodida: Ixodidae) infestation on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the eastern United States.

BACKGROUND: White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) host numerous ectoparasitic species in the eastern USA, most notably various species of ticks and two species of deer keds. Several pathogens transmitted by ticks to humans and other animal hosts have also been found in deer keds. Little is known about the acquisition and potential for transmission of these pathogens by deer keds; however, tick-deer ked co-feeding transmission is one possible scenario. On-host localization of ticks and deer keds on white-tailed deer was evaluated across several geographical regions of the eastern US to define tick-deer ked spatial relationships on host deer, which may impact the vector-borne disease ecology of these ectoparasites. METHODS: Ticks and deer keds were collected from hunter-harvested white-tailed deer from six states in the eastern US. Each deer was divided into three body sections, and each section was checked for 4 person-minutes. Differences in ectoparasite counts across body sections and/or states were evaluated using a Bayesian generalized mixed model. RESULTS: A total of 168 white-tailed deer were inspected for ticks and deer keds across the study sites. Ticks (n = 1636) were collected from all surveyed states, with Ixodes scapularis (n = 1427) being the predominant species. Counts of I. scapularis from the head and front sections were greater than from the rear section. Neotropical deer keds (Lipoptena mazamae) from Alabama and Tennessee (n = 247) were more often found on the rear body section. European deer keds from Pennsylvania (all Lipoptena cervi, n = 314) were found on all body sections of deer. CONCLUSIONS: The distributions of ticks and deer keds on white-tailed deer were significantly different from each other, providing the first evidence of possible on-host niche partitioning of ticks and two geographically distinct deer ked species (L. cervi in the northeast and L. mazamae in the southeast). These differences in spatial distributions may have implications for acquisition and/or transmission of vector-borne pathogens and therefore warrant further study over a wider geographic range and longer time frame.

Diverse Borrelia burgdorferi strains in a bird-tick cryptic cycle.

The blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis is the primary vector of the most prevalent vector-borne zoonosis in North America, Lyme disease (LD). Enzootic maintenance of the pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi by I. scapularis and small mammals is well documented, whereas its "cryptic" maintenance by other specialist ticks and wildlife hosts remains largely unexplored because these ticks rarely bite humans. We quantified B. burgdorferi infection in a cryptic bird-rabbit-tick cycle. Furthermore, we explored the role of birds in maintaining and moving B. burgdorferi strains by comparing their genetic diversity in this cryptic cycle to that found in cycles vectored by I. scapularis. We examined birds, rabbits, and small mammals for ticks and infection over a 4-year period at a focal site in Michigan, 90 km east of a zone of I. scapularis invasion. We mist netted 19,631 birds that yielded 12,301 ticks, of which 86% were I. dentatus, a bird-rabbit specialist. No resident wildlife harbored I. scapularis, and yet 3.5% of bird-derived ticks, 3.6% of rabbit-derived ticks, and 20% of rabbit ear biopsy specimens were infected with B. burgdorferi. We identified 25 closely related B. burgdorferi strains using an rRNA gene intergenic spacer marker, the majority (68%) of which had not been reported previously. The presence of strains common to both cryptic and endemic cycles strongly implies bird-mediated dispersal. Given continued large-scale expansion of I. scapularis populations, we predict that its invasion into zones of cryptic transmission will allow for bridging of novel pathogen strains to humans and animals.

The Contribution of Wildlife Hosts to the Rise of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in North America.

Wildlife vertebrate hosts are integral to enzootic cycles of tick-borne pathogens, and in some cases have played key roles in the recent rise of ticks and tick-borne diseases in North America. In this forum article, we highlight roles that wildlife hosts play in the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic, companion animal, livestock, and wildlife tick-borne pathogens. We begin by illustrating how wildlife contribute directly and indirectly to the increase and geographic expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens. Wildlife provide blood meals for tick growth and reproduction; serve as pathogen reservoirs; and can disperse ticks and pathogens-either through natural movement (e.g., avian migration) or through human-facilitated movement (e.g., wildlife translocations and trade). We then discuss opportunities to manage tick-borne disease through actions directed at wildlife hosts. To conclude, we highlight key gaps in our understanding of the ecology of tick-host interactions, emphasizing that wildlife host communities are themselves a very dynamic component of tick-pathogen-host systems and therefore complicate management of tick-borne diseases, and should be taken into account when considering host-targeted approaches. Effective management of wildlife to reduce tick-borne disease risk further requires consideration of the 'human dimensions' of wildlife management. This includes understanding the public's diverse views and values about wildlife and wildlife impacts-including the perceived role of wildlife in fostering tick-borne diseases. Public health agencies should capitalize on the expertise of wildlife agencies when developing strategies to reduce tick-borne disease risks.

Seasonality of acarological risk of exposure to Borrelia miyamotoi from questing life stages of Ixodes scapularis collected from Wisconsin and Massachusetts, USA.

Measures of acarological risk of exposure to Ixodes scapularis-borne disease agents typically focus on nymphs; however, the relapsing fever group spirochete Borrelia miyamotoi can be passed transovarially, and I. scapularis larvae are capable of transmitting B. miyamotoi to their hosts. To quantify the larval contribution to acarological risk, relative to nymphs and adults, we collected questing I. scapularis for 3 yr at Fort McCoy, Wisconsin (WI, n = 23,367 ticks), and Cape Cod, Massachusetts (MA, n = 4190) in the United States. Borrelia miyamotoi infection prevalence was estimated for I. scapularis larvae, nymphs, females, and males, respectively, as 0.88, 2.05, 0.63, and 1.22 % from the WI site and 0.33, 2.32, 2.83, and 2.11 % from the MA site. Densities of B. miyamotoi-infected ticks (DIT, per 1000 m2) were estimated for larvae, nymphs, females, and males, respectively, as 0.36, 0.14, 0.01, and 0.03 from the WI site and 0.05, 0.06, 0.03, and 0.02 from the MA site. Thus, although larval infection prevalence with B. miyamotoi was significantly lower than that of nymphs and similar to that of adults, because of their higher abundance, the larval contribution to the overall DIT was similar to that of nymphs and trended towards a greater contribution than adults. Assuming homogenous contact rates with humans, these results suggest that eco-epidemiological investigations of B. miyamotoi disease in North America should include larvae. A fuller appreciation of the epidemiological implications of these results, therefore, requires an examination of the heterogeneity in contact rates with humans among life stages.

Management of infectious wildlife diseases: bridging conventional and bioeconomic approaches.

The primary goal of disease ecology is to understand disease systems and then use this information to inform management. The purpose of this paper is to show that conventional disease ecology models are limited in their ability to inform management of systems that are already infected, and to show how such models can be integrated with economic decision models to improve upon management recommendations. Management strategies based solely on disease ecology entail managing infected host populations or reservoir populations below a threshold value based on R0, the basic reproductive ratio of the pathogen, or a multiple-host version of this metric. These metrics measure a pathogen's ability to invade uninfected systems and do not account for postinfection dynamics. Once a pathogen has invaded a population, alternative management criteria are needed. Bioeconomic modeling offers a useful alternative approach to developing management criteria and facilitates the consideration of ecological-economic trade-offs so that diseases are managed in a cost-effective manner. The threshold concept takes on a more profound role under a bioeconomic paradigm: rather than unilaterally determining disease control choices, thresholds inform control choices and are influenced by them.

Residues in Brandt's voles (Microtus brandti) exposed to bromadiolone-impregnated baits in Mongolia.

In 2002, hundreds of non-target wildlife deaths occurred in Mongolia following aerial applications of bromadiolone, an anticoagulant rodenticide, to control eruptive Brandt's vole (Microtus brandti) populations. To clarify whether secondary poisoning could have contributed to these deaths, a field study was undertaken in Mongolia to measure bromadiolone residues in voles following exposure to two concentrations (50 and 500 mg/kg) of bromadiolone-treated wheat. The two treatments produced different total burdens (2.65 microg+/-0.53SE and 13.70 microg+/-3.82SE, respectively) and liver burdens (1.74 microg+/-0.33SE and 8.81 microg+/-2.33SE, respectively) of bromadiolone in voles (both p<0.05). Total burdens of bromadiolone in voles found dead above ground were higher than those of live-trapped voles (32.35 microg+/-17.98SE versus 5.18 microg+/-1.40SE, respectively; p<0.05). These results are valuable for future assessments of secondary poisoning risk to scavengers and predators from large-scale bromadiolone poisoning operations of the type undertaken in Mongolia.

Local abundance of Ixodes scapularis in forests: Effects of environmental moisture, vegetation characteristics, and host abundance.

Ixodes scapularis is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes in eastern and central North America, and local densities of this tick can affect human disease risk. We sampled larvae and nymphs from sites in Massachusetts and Wisconsin, USA, using flag/drag devices and by collecting ticks from hosts, and measured environmental variables to evaluate the environmental factors that affect local distribution and abundance of I. scapularis. Our sites were all forested areas with known I. scapularis populations. Environmental variables included those associated with weather (e.g., temperature and relative humidity), vegetation characteristics (at canopy, shrub, and ground levels), and host abundance (small and medium-sized mammals and reptiles). The numbers of larvae on animals at a given site and season showed a logarithmic relationship to the numbers in flag/drag samples, suggesting limitation in the numbers on host animals. The numbers of nymphs on animals showed no relationship to the numbers in flag/drag samples. These results suggest that only a small proportion of larvae and nymphs found hosts because in neither stage did the numbers of host-seeking ticks decline with increased numbers on hosts. Canopy cover was predictive of larval and nymphal numbers in flag/drag samples, but not of numbers on hosts. Numbers of small and medium-sized mammal hosts the previous year were generally not predictive of the current year's tick numbers, except that mouse abundance predicted log numbers of nymphs on all hosts the following year. Some measures of larval abundance were predictive of nymphal numbers the following year. The mean number of larvae per mouse was well predicted by measures of overall larval abundance (based on flag/drag samples and samples from all hosts), and some environmental factors contributed significantly to the model. In contrast, the mean numbers of nymphs per mouse were not well predicted by environmental variables, only by overall nymphal abundance on hosts. Therefore, larvae respond differently than nymphs to environmental factors. Furthermore, flag/drag samples provide different information about nymphal numbers than do samples from hosts. Flag/drag samples can provide information about human risk of acquiring nymph-borne pathogens because they provide information on the densities of ticks that might encounter humans, but to understand the epizootiology of tick-borne agents both flag/drag and host infestation data are needed.

Use of tick surveys and serosurveys to evaluate pet dogs as a sentinel species for emerging Lyme disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate dogs as a sentinel species for emergence of Lyme disease in a region undergoing invasion by Ixodes scapularis. SAMPLE POPULATION: 353 serum samples and 78 ticks obtained from dogs brought to 18 veterinary clinics located in the lower peninsula of Michigan from July 15, 2005, through August 15, 2005. PROCEDURES: Serum samples were evaluated for specific antibodies against Borrelia burgdorferi by use of 3 serologic assays. Ticks from dogs were subjected to PCR assays for detection of pathogens. RESULTS: Of 353 serum samples from dogs in 18 counties in 2005, only 2 (0.6%) contained western blot analysis-confirmed antibodies against B burgdorferi. Ten of 13 dogs with I scapularis were from clinics within or immediately adjacent to the known tick invasion zone. Six of 18 I scapularis and 12 of 60 noncompetent vector ticks were infected with B burgdorferi. No ticks were infected with Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and 3 were infected with Babesia spp. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Serosurvey in dogs was found to be ineffective in tracking early invasion dynamics of I scapularis in this area. Tick chemoprophylaxis likely reduces serosurvey sensitivity in dogs. Ticks infected with B burgdorferi were more common and widely dispersed than seropositive dogs. In areas of low tick density, use of dogs as a source of ticks is preferable to serosurvey for surveillance of emerging Lyme disease. IMPACT FOR HUMAN MEDICINE: By retaining ticks from dogs for identification and pathogen testing, veterinarians can play an important role in early detection in areas with increasing risk of Lyme disease.

Nymphal Ixodes scapularis questing behavior explains geographic variation in Lyme borreliosis risk in the eastern United States.

Most people who contract Lyme borreliosis in the eastern United States (US) acquire infection from the bite of the nymphal life stage of the vector tick Ixodes scapularis, which is present in all eastern states. Yet <5% of Lyme borreliosis cases are reported from outside the north-central and northeastern US. Geographical differences in nymphal questing (i.e., host-seeking behavior) may be epidemiologically important in explaining this latitudinal gradient in Lyme borreliosis incidence. Using field enclosures and a 'common garden' experimental design at two field sites, we directly tested this hypothesis by observing above-litter questing of laboratory-raised nymphal I. scapularis whose parents were collected from 15 locations (= origins) across the species' range. Relative to southern nymphs from origins considered to be of low acarologic risk, northern nymphs from high-risk origins were eight times as likely to quest on or above the surface of the leaf litter. This regional variation in vector behavior (specifically, the propensity of southern nymphs to remain under leaf litter) was highly correlated with Lyme borreliosis incidence in nymphs' counties of origin. We conclude that nymphal host-seeking behavior is a key factor contributing to the low incidence of Lyme borreliosis in southern states. Expansion of northern I. scapularis populations could lead to increased incidence in southern states of Lyme borreliosis and other diseases vectored by this tick, if the 'northern' host-seeking behavior of immigrant nymphs is retained. Systematic surveillance for I. scapularis nymphs questing above the leaf litter in southern states will help predict future geographic change in I. scapularis-borne disease risk.