Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

Mechanism mapping: A qualitative study of how different forms of instability mediate the relationship between legal status and immigrant mental well-being.

Scholarship on undocumented immigrants has linked irregular forms of legal status to depressed mental health experiences and outcomes. The children of undocumented immigrants have also been shown to report mental health issues. More regular forms of legal status, like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), have been shown to improve psychological outcomes for migrants and their children. Though the relationship between legal status and mental well-being has appeared again and again in the literature, less work has explored the mechanisms through which legal status impacts mental well-being. This paper aims to help detail this link by drawing on 50 in-depth interviews with DACA-recipient and undocumented (DACA-ineligible) immigrants conducted from 2017 to 2018 (pre- and post-DACA rescindment). Thematic analysis identified three forms of instability (nation-state, residential and household) that mediate the influence of legal status on the mental well-being of immigrants and their families. Coping with nation-state, residential and household changes depleted immigrant's mental and emotional resources, hurting their mental well-being. More regular forms of legal status (like DACA) suppressed the occurrence of instability, bolstering the mental well-being reports of DACA-recipients compared to their undocumented counterparts. Yet the program's rescission in September 2017, spiked the threat of future instability for DACA-respondents leading their negative mental well-being reports to echo those of undocumented respondents. We propose that experiencing or even expecting these forms of instability to occur mediates the influence of legal status on mental well-being. Findings shed light on how legal status influences mental well-being and contribute to the immigrant mental health literature.

The Intergenerational Health Effects of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program on Families With Mixed Immigration Status.

OBJECTIVE: Children of undocumented mothers with Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) have better mental health outcomes than children of DACA-ineligible mothers. This study explored the intergenerational health effects of DACA on undocumented parents and their children in families with mixed immigration status. METHODS: Forty-eight semistructured interviews were selected from a study on life transitions of 50 undocumented immigrants. Prevalent themes related to the intergenerational health effects of DACA on undocumented immigrants were identified through thematic analysis of the transcripts, and quotes were selected to illustrate themes in the participants' own words. RESULTS: Thirty-three of the 48 respondents were DACA recipients. Twenty-six respondents were parents with a total of 61 children, 73.8% of whom were US-born. Four themes were identified: 1) DACA recipients reported decreased familial stress because of protection from deportation and increased access to health care, 2) both DACA and DACA-ineligible parents prioritized regular pediatrician visits for their children, but DACA-ineligible parents suffered from poor health because of decreased access to health care, 3) adults with DACA mirror the health behaviors of their DACA-ineligible parents, and 4) the poor health access of DACA-ineligible family members appeared to stress DACA recipients and US-born children in these families. CONCLUSIONS: DACA decreases children's fear of parental deportation and loss. However, the suffering of DACA-ineligible parents and family members may stress their children and influence their health-seeking behavior in adulthood. Health care access for all members of immigrant families needs to be examined, since their well-being impacts the well-being of their children.