Parental Age and Offspring Childhood Mental Health: A Multi-Cohort, Population-Based Investigation.

To examine the contributions of maternal and paternal age on offspring externalizing and internalizing problems, this study analyzed problem behaviors at age 10-12 years from four Dutch population-based cohorts (N = 32,892) by a multiple informant design. Bayesian evidence synthesis was used to combine results across cohorts with 50% of the data analyzed for discovery and 50% for confirmation. There was evidence of a robust negative linear relation between parental age and externalizing problems as reported by parents. In teacher-reports, this relation was largely explained by parental socio-economic status. Parental age had limited to no association with internalizing problems. Thus, in this large population-based study, either a beneficial or no effect of advanced parenthood on child problem behavior was observed.

Relationship between social anxiety and perceived trustworthiness.

Four different patterns of biased ratings of facial expressions of emotions have been found in socially anxious participants: higher negative ratings of (1) negative, (2) neutral, and (3) positive facial expressions than nonanxious controls. As a fourth pattern, some studies have found no group differences in ratings of facial expressions of emotion. However, these studies usually employed valence and arousal ratings that arguably may be less able to reflect processing of social information. We examined the relationship between social anxiety and face ratings for perceived trustworthiness given that trustworthiness is an inherently socially relevant construct. Improving on earlier analytical strategies, we evaluated the four previously found result patterns using a Bayesian approach. Ninety-eight undergraduates rated 198 face stimuli on perceived trustworthiness. Subsequently, participants completed social anxiety questionnaires to assess the severity of social fears. Bayesian modeling indicated that the probability that social anxiety did not influence judgments of trustworthiness had at least three times more empirical support in our sample than assuming any kind of negative interpretation bias in social anxiety. We concluded that the deviant interpretation of facial trustworthiness is not a relevant aspect in social anxiety.

Incorporation of historical data in the analysis of randomized therapeutic trials.

Historical studies provide a valuable source of information for the motivation and design of later trials. Bayesian techniques offer possibilities for the quantitative inclusion of prior knowledge within the analysis of current trial data. Combining information from previous studies into an informative prior distribution is, however, a delicate case. The power prior distribution is a tool to estimate the effect of an intervention in a current study sample, while accounting for the information provided by previous research. In this study we evaluate the use of the power prior distribution, illustrated with data from a large randomized clinical trial on the effect of ST-wave analysis in intrapartum fetal monitoring. We advocate the use of a power prior distribution with pre-specified fixed study weights based on differences in study characteristics. We propose obtaining a ranking of the historical studies via expert elicitation, based on relevance for the current study, and specify study weights accordingly.