Sporadic cases of chronic wasting disease in old moose - an epidemiological study.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies or prion diseases comprise diseases with different levels of contagiousness under natural conditions. The hypothesis has been raised that the chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases detected in Nordic moose (Alces alces) may be less contagious, or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of CWD cases detected in moose in Norway, Sweden and Finland using surveillance data from 2016 to 2022.In total, 18 CWD cases were detected in Nordic moose. All moose were positive for prion (PrPres) detection in the brain, but negative in lymph nodes, all were old (mean 16 years; range 12-20) and all except one, were female. Age appeared to be a strong risk factor, and the sex difference may be explained by few males reaching high age due to hunting targeting calves, yearlings and males.The cases were geographically scattered, distributed over 15 municipalities. However, three cases were detected in each of two areas, Selbu in Norway and Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur in Sweden. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied to investigate the likelihood of such clustering occurring by chance, given the assumption of a non-contagious disease. The empirical P-value for obtaining three cases in one Norwegian municipality was less than 0.05, indicating clustering. However, the moose in Selbu were affected by different CWD strains, and over a 6 year period with intensive surveillance, the apparent prevalence decreased, which would not be expected for an ongoing outbreak of CWD. Likewise, the three cases in Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur could also indicate clustering, but management practices promotes a larger proportion of old females and the detection of the first CWD case contributed to increased awareness and sampling.The results of our study show that the CWD cases detected so far in Nordic moose have a different epidemiology compared to CWD cases reported from North America and in Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus). The results support the hypothesis that these cases are less contagious or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. To enable differentiation from other types of CWD, we support the use of sporadic CWD (sCWD) among the names already in use.

A One Health real-time surveillance system for nowcasting Campylobacter gastrointestinal illness outbreaks, Norway, week 30 2010 to week 11 2022.

BackgroundCampylobacter is a leading cause of food and waterborne illness. Monitoring and modelling Campylobacter at chicken broiler farms, combined with weather pattern surveillance, can aid nowcasting of human gastrointestinal (GI) illness outbreaks. Near real-time sharing of data and model results with health authorities can help increase potential outbreak responsiveness.AimsTo leverage data on weather and Campylobacter on broiler farms to build a risk model for possible human Campylobacter outbreaks and to communicate risk assessments with health authorities.MethodsWe developed a spatio-temporal random effects model for weekly GI illness consultations in Norwegian municipalities with Campylobacter monitoring and weather data from week 30 2010 to 11 2022 to give 1-week nowcasts of GI illness outbreaks. The approach combined a municipality random effects baseline model for seasonally-adjusted GI illness with a second model for peak deviations from that baseline. Model results are communicated to national and local stakeholders through an interactive website: Sykdomspulsen One Health.ResultsLagged temperature and precipitation covariates, as well as 2-week-lagged positive Campylobacter sampling in broilers, were associated with higher levels of GI consultations. Significant inter-municipality variability in outbreak nowcasts were observed.ConclusionsCampylobacter surveillance in broilers can be useful in GI illness outbreak nowcasting. Surveillance of Campylobacter along potential pathways from the environment to illness such as via water system monitoring may improve nowcasting. A One Health system that communicates near real-time surveillance data and nowcast changes in risk to health professionals facilitates the prevention of Campylobacter outbreaks and reduces impact on human health.

The potential spread of severe footrot in Norway if no elimination programme had been initiated: a simulation model.

When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.

Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden.

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

Review state-of-the-art of output-based methodological approaches for substantiating freedom from infection.

A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data. Substantiating freedom from infection consists in quantifying the evidence of absence from the absence of evidence. The quantification usually consists in estimating the probability of observing no positive test result, in a given sample, assuming that the infection is present at a chosen (low) prevalence, called the design prevalence. The usual surveillance outputs are the sensitivity of surveillance and the probability of freedom from infection. A variety of factors influencing the choice of a method are presented; disease prevalence context, performance of the tests used, risk factors of infection, structure of the surveillance programme and frequency of testing. The existing methods for estimating the probability of freedom from infection are scenario trees, Bayesian belief networks, simulation methods, Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model. Scenario trees analysis is the current reference method for proving freedom from infection and is widely used in countries that claim freedom. Bayesian belief networks and simulation methods are considered extensions of scenario trees. They can be applied to more complex surveillance schemes and represent complex infection dynamics. Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model allow freedom from infection estimation at the herd-level from longitudinal surveillance data, considering risk factor information and the structure of the population. Comparison of surveillance outputs from heterogeneous surveillance programmes for estimating the probability of freedom from infection is a difficult task. This paper is a 'guide towards substantiating freedom from infection' that describes both all assumptions-limitations and available methods that can be applied in different settings.

Occurrence of potentially human-pathogenic Escherichia coli O103 in Norwegian sheep.

The investigation of an outbreak of hemorrhagic-uremic syndrome in Norway in 2006 indicated that the outbreak strain Escherichia coli O103:H25 could originate from sheep. A national survey of the Norwegian sheep population was performed, with the aim of identifying and describing a possible reservoir of potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103, in particular of the H types 2 and 25. The investigation of fecal samples from 585 sheep flocks resulted in 1,222 E. coli O103 isolates that were analyzed for the presence of eae and stx genes, while a subset of 369 isolates was further examined for flagellar antigens (H typing), stx subtypes, bfpA, astA, and molecular typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The total ovine E. coli O103 serogroup was genetically diverse by numbers of H types, virulotypes, and PFGE banding patterns identified, although a tendency of clustering toward serotypes was seen. The flocks positive for potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103 were geographically widely distributed, and no association could be found with county or geographical region. The survey showed that eae-negative, stx-negative E. coli O103, probably nonpathogenic to humans, is very common in sheep, with 27.5% of flocks positive. Moreover, the study documented a low prevalence (0.7%) of potentially human-pathogenic Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O103:H2, while STEC O103:H25 was not detected. However, 3.1% and 5.8% of the flocks were positive for enteropathogenic E. coli O103 belonging to H types 2 and 25, respectively. These isolates are of concern as potential human pathogens by themselves but more importantly as possible precursors for human-pathogenic STEC.

No indication of Coxiella burnetii infection in Norwegian farmed ruminants.

BACKGROUND: Infection with Coxiella burnetii, the cause of Q-fever, has never been detected in Norwegian animals. Recognising the increasing prevalence of the infection in neighbouring countries, the aim of the study was to perform a survey of Norwegian farmed ruminants for the prevalence of C. burnetii infection. RESULTS: Milk and blood samples from more than 3450 Norwegian dairy cattle herds, 55 beef cattle herds, 348 dairy goat herds and 118 sheep flocks were serologically examined for antibodies against C. burnetii. All samples were negative for antibodies against C. burnetii. The estimated prevalences of infected herds were 0 (95% confidence interval: 0% - 0.12%), 0 (0% - 12%), 0 (0% - 1.2%) and 0 (0% - 10%) for dairy cattle herds, beef cattle herds, goat herds and sheep flocks, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates that the prevalence of C. burnetii infection in farmed Norwegian ruminants is low, and it cannot be excluded that Norway is free of the infection. It would be beneficial if Norway was able to maintain the current situation. Therefore, preventive measures should be continued.

Corrigendum: Overview of Cattle Diseases Listed Under Category C, D or E in the Animal Health Law for Which Control Programmes Are in Place Within Europe.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.688078.].

Risk-based surveillance of chronic wasting disease in semi-domestic reindeer.

Reindeer pastoralism is a widespread practise across Fennoscandia and Russia. An outbreak of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) poses a severe threat to the semi-domestic reindeer herding culture. Establishing surveillance is therefore key, but current models for surveillance of CWD are designed for wild cervids and rely on samples obtained from recreational hunters. Targeting animal groups with a higher infection probability is often used for more efficient disease surveillance. CWD has a long incubation period of 2-3 years, and the animals show clinical signs in the later stages of the infection i.e. 1-4 months prior to death. The semi-domestic reindeer are free-ranging most of the year, but during slaughtering in late fall, herders stress the animals in penned areas. This allows removal of animals with deviant behaviour or physical appearance, and such removals are likely to include animals in the clinical stages of CWD if the population is infected. In Norway, the semi-domestic reindeer in Filefjell is adjacent to a previously CWD infected wild population. We developed a risk-based surveillance method for this semi-domestic setting to establish the probability of freedom from infection over time, or enable early disease detection and mitigation. The surveillance scheme with a scenario tree using three risk categories (sample category, demographic group, and deviations in behaviour or physical appearance) was more effective and less invasive as compared to the surveillance method developed for wild reindeer. We also simulated how variation in susceptibility, incubation period and time for onset of clinical signs (linked to variation in the prion protein gene, PRNP) would potentially affect surveillance. Surveillance for CWD was mandatory within EU-member states with reindeer (2018-2020). The diversity of management systems and epidemiological settings will require the development of a set of surveillance systems suitable for each different context. Our surveillance model is designed for a population with a high risk of CWD introduction requiring massive sampling, while at the same time aiming to limit adverse effects to the populations in areas of surveillance.

Existence and Quality of Data on Control Programs for EU Non-regulated Cattle Diseases: Consequences for Estimation and Comparison of the Probability of Freedom From Infection.

Some European countries have successfully implemented country-specific control programs (CPs) for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated or are regulated only to a limited extent at the European Union (EU) level. Examples of such diseases include bovine viral diarrhea (BVD), infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), and Johne's disease (JD). The CPs vary between countries in the design and quality of collected data as well as methods used to detect infection and estimate prevalence or probability of freedom from infection. Differences in disease status between countries and non-standardized approaches to assess freedom from infection pose a risk for countries with CPs for non-regulated diseases as infected animals may influence the progress of the disease control or eradication program. The implementation of output-based standards allows estimation and comparison of the probability of freedom for non-regulated cattle diseases in European countries. The aim of the current study was to assess the existence and quality of data that could be used for estimating freedom from infection in European countries. The online data collection tool was sent to 32 countries participating in the SOUND control COST Action and was completed by 24 countries. Data on cattle demographics and data from CPs of IBR and BVD exist in more than 50% of the response countries. However, data describing risk factors and CP of JD was reported as existing in <25% of the countries. The overall quality of data in the sections on demographics and CPs of IBR and BVD were evaluated as "good", but risk factors and JD data were mostly evaluated as "fair." Data quality was considered less good mainly due to two quality criteria: accessibility and accuracy. The results of this study show that the quantity and quality of data about cattle populations and CPs are relatively similar in many surveyed countries. The outcome of this work provides an overview of the current situation in the European countries regarding data on EU non-regulated cattle diseases and will further assist in the development and implementation of output-based standards.

Overview of Cattle Diseases Listed Under Category C, D or E in the Animal Health Law for Which Control Programmes Are in Place Within Europe.

The COST action "Standardising output-based surveillance to control non-regulated diseases of cattle in the European Union (SOUND control)," aims to harmonise the results of surveillance and control programmes (CPs) for non-EU regulated cattle diseases to facilitate safe trade and improve overall control of cattle infectious diseases. In this paper we aimed to provide an overview on the diversity of control for these diseases in Europe. A non-EU regulated cattle disease was defined as an infectious disease of cattle with no or limited control at EU level, which is not included in the European Union Animal health law Categories A or B under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/2002. A CP was defined as surveillance and/or intervention strategies designed to lower the incidence, prevalence, mortality or prove freedom from a specific disease in a region or country. Passive surveillance, and active surveillance of breeding bulls under Council Directive 88/407/EEC were not considered as CPs. A questionnaire was designed to obtain country-specific information about CPs for each disease. Animal health experts from 33 European countries completed the questionnaire. Overall, there are 23 diseases for which a CP exists in one or more of the countries studied. The diseases for which CPs exist in the highest number of countries are enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, bovine viral diarrhoea and anthrax (CPs reported by between 16 and 31 countries). Every participating country has on average, 6 CPs (min-max: 1-13) in place. Most programmes are implemented at a national level (86%) and are applied to both dairy and non-dairy cattle (75%). Approximately one-third of the CPs are voluntary, and the funding structure is divided between government and private resources. Countries that have eradicated diseases like enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine viral diarrhoea have implemented CPs for other diseases to further improve the health status of cattle in their country. The control of non-EU regulated cattle diseases is very heterogenous in Europe. Therefore, the standardising of the outputs of these programmes to enable comparison represents a challenge.

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries.

BACKGROUND: During the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious. RESULTS: Questionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI95%: 20.7-50.7). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.

Hunting strategies to increase detection of chronic wasting disease in cervids.

The successful mitigation of emerging wildlife diseases may involve controversial host culling. For livestock, 'preemptive host culling' is an accepted practice involving the removal of herds with known contact to infected populations. When applied to wildlife, this proactive approach comes in conflict with biodiversity conservation goals. Here, we present an alternative approach of 'proactive hunting surveillance' with the aim of early disease detection that simultaneously avoids undesirable population decline by targeting demographic groups with (1) a higher likelihood of being infected and (2) a lower reproductive value. We applied this harvesting principle to populations of reindeer to substantiate freedom of chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection. Proactive hunting surveillance reached 99% probability of freedom from infection (<4 reindeer infected) within 3-5 years, in comparison to ~10 years using ordinary harvest surveillance. However, implementation uncertainties linked to social issues appear challenging also with this kind of host culling.

Chronic wasting disease associated with prion protein gene (PRNP) variation in Norwegian wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus).

The emergence of CWD in Europe in 2016 and the first natural infection in wild reindeer warranted disease management. This led to the testing of 2424 hunted or culled reindeer during 2016-2018, from the infected subpopulation in the Nordfjella mountain range in Southern Norway. To identify any association between PRNP variation and CWD susceptibility, we characterized the open reading frame of the PRNP gene in 19 CWD positive reindeer and in 101 age category- and sex-matched CWD negative controls. Seven variant positions were identified: 6 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and a 24 base pair (bp) deletion located between nucleotide position 238 and 272, encoding four instead of five octapeptide repeats. With a single exception, all variant positions but one were predicted to be non-synonymous. The synonymous SNV and the deletion are novel in reindeer. Various combinations of the non-synonymous variant positions resulted in the identification of five PRNP alleles (A-E) that structured into 14 genotypes. We identified an increased CWD risk in reindeer carrying two copies of the most common allele, A, coding for serine in position 225 (Ser225) and in those carrying allele A together with the 24 bp deletion.

Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.

First Detection of Chronic Wasting Disease in a Wild Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) in Europe.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal contagious prion disease naturally occurring in cervids in North America. In 2016, CWD was detected in wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and moose (Alces alces) in Norway. Here, we report the first known naturally infected wild Norwegian red deer (Cervus elaphus).

A descriptive study of the prevalence of atypical and classical scrapie in sheep in 20 European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of active surveillance programmes for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies of small ruminants across Europe has led to the recent identification of a previously undetected form of ovine prion disease, 'atypical' scrapie. Knowledge of the epidemiology of this disease is still limited, as is whether it represents a risk for animal and/or public health. The detection of atypical scrapie has been related to the use of only some of the EU agreed rapid tests. Information about the rapid tests used is not, as yet, available from public reports on the surveillance of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants. We collected detailed results of active surveillance from European countries to estimate and to compare the prevalence of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie in sheep for each country stratified by each surveillance stream; healthy slaughtered and found dead adult sheep. RESULTS: From the 20 participating countries, it appeared that atypical scrapie was detected in Europe wherever the conditions necessary for its diagnosis were present. In most countries, atypical scrapie and classical scrapie occurred at low prevalence level. The classical scrapie prevalence estimates were more variable than those for atypical scrapie, which appeared remarkably homogeneous across countries, surveillance streams and calendar years of surveillance. Differences were observed in the age and genotype of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie cases that are consistent with previous published findings. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that atypical scrapie is not rare compared to classical scrapie. The homogeneity of its prevalence, whatever the country, stream of surveillance or year of detection, contrasts with the epidemiological pattern of classical scrapie. This suggests that the aetiology of atypical scrapie differs from that of classical scrapie.

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in nine European countries.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. METHODS: We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. RESULTS: The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. CONCLUSION: We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. METHODS: We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. RESULTS: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

Evaluation of three serological tests for diagnosis of Maedi-Visna virus infection using latent class analysis.

Maedi-Visna virus (MVV) infection in sheep is present in several European countries, including Norway. The current Norwegian surveillance and control programme for MVV infection uses three serological tests: an agar gel immunodiffusion test (AGID) and two commercially available indirect ELISAs (Institut Pourquier, P-ELISA and HYPHEN BioMed, H-ELISA). From 18 flocks with suspected or confirmed MVV infection, sera from naturally infected sheep were obtained, and sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the three tests were estimated in absence of a perfect reference test using latent class models in a Bayesian analysis. The AGID had higher Sp (95% posterior credibility interval (PCI) [98.4; 99.9]) than either ELISA (95% PCI: P-ELISA, [95.1; 99.0]; H-ELISA, [91.4; 96.6]), but much lower Se (95% PCI: AGID, [41.4; 59.8]; P-ELISA, [92.7; 100.0]; H-ELISA, [90.9; 99.4]). Currently the P-ELISA is used for screening and positive samples are subsequently confirmed by a setup using all three tests in a serial reading. The Se and Sp of the serial interpretations with and without the H-ELISA were estimated. The results suggested that the H-ELISA could be dropped as a confirmatory test as the Se of the three test serial reading was reduced significantly without adding a significant improvement of the Sp compared to the serial reading of the P-ELISA and AGID alone. However, the perceived cost of false positives versus false negatives will influence this decision. Estimates of the predictive values for the tests and combinations suggested that the P-ELISA is a good choice of screening, but confirmatory tests are needed to achieve acceptable levels of positive predictive values.