RESUMO
Although system dynamics [SD] and agent-based modelling [ABM] have individually served as effective tools to understand the Covid-19 dynamics, combining these methods in a hybrid simulation model can help address Covid-19 questions and study systems and settings that are difficult to study with a single approach. To examine the spread and outbreak of Covid-19 across multiple care homes via bank/agency staff and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions targeting this group, we develop an integrated hybrid simulation model combining the advantages of SD and ABM. We also demonstrate how we use several approaches adapted from both SD and ABM practices to build confidence in this model in response to the lack of systematic approaches to validate hybrid models. Our modelling results show that the risk of infection for residents in care homes using bank/agency staff was significantly higher than those not using bank/agency staff (Relative risk [RR] 2.65, 95% CI 2.57-2.72). Bank/agency staff working across several care homes had a higher risk of infection compared with permanent staff working in a single care home (RR 1.55, 95%CI 1.52-1.58). The RR of infection for residents is negatively correlated to bank/agency staff's adherence to weekly PCR testing. Within a network of heterogeneous care homes, using bank/agency staff had the most impact on care homes with lower intra-facility transmission risks, higher staff-to-resident ratio, and smaller size. Forming bubbles of care homes had no or limited impact on the spread of Covid-19. This modelling study has implications for policy makers considering developing effective interventions targeting staff working across care homes during the ongoing and future pandemics.
Assuntos
COVID-19/transmissão , Simulação por Computador , Pessoal de Saúde , Casas de Saúde/organização & administração , Análise de Sistemas , COVID-19/virologia , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Financial risk protection and equity are two fundamental components of the global commitment to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), which mandates health system reform based on population needs, disease incidence, and economic burden to ensure that everyone has access to health services without any financial hardship. We estimated disease-specific incidences of catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditure and distress financing to investigate progress toward UHC financial risk indicators and investigated inequalities in financial risk protection indicators by wealth quintiles. In addition, we explored the determinants of financial hardship indicators as a result of hospitalization costs. METHODS: In order to conduct this research, data were extracted from the latest Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics in 2016-2017. Financial hardship indicators in UHC were measured by catastrophic health expenditure and distress financing (sale/mortgage, borrowing, and family support). Concentration curves (CC) and indices (CI) were estimated to measure the pattern and severity of inequalities across socio-economic classes. Binary logistic regression models were used to assess the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure and distress financing. RESULTS: We found that about 26% of households incurred catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and 58% faced distress financing on hospitalization in Bangladesh. The highest incidence of CHE was for cancer (50%), followed by liver diseases (49.2%), and paralysis (43.6%). The financial hardship indicators in terms of CHE (CI = -0.109) and distress financing (CI = -0.087) were more concentrated among low-income households. Hospital admission to private health facilities, non-communicable diseases, and the presence of chronic patients in households significantly increases the likelihood of higher UHC financial hardship indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings strongly suggest the need for national-level social health security schemes with a particular focus on low-income households, since we identified greater inequalities between low- and high-income households in UHC financial hardship indicators. Regulating the private sector and implementing subsidized healthcare programmes for diseases with high treatment costs, such as cancer, heart disease, liver disease, and kidney disease are also expected to be effective to protect households from financial hardship. Finally, in order to reduce reliance on OOPE, the government should consider increasing its allocations to the health sector.
Assuntos
Gastos em Saúde , Financiamento da Assistência à Saúde , Bangladesh , Doença Catastrófica , Características da Família , Financiamento Pessoal , Hospitalização , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Community-based health insurance (CBHI) is a part of the health system in Bangladesh, and overcoming the obstacles of CBHI is a significant policy concern that has received little attention. The purpose of this study is to analyze the implementation barriers of voluntary CBHI schemes in Bangladesh and the strategies to overcome these barriers from the perspective of national stakeholders. METHODS: This study is exploratory qualitative research, specifically case study design, using key informant interviews to investigate the barriers of CBHI that are faced during the implementation. Using a topic guide, we conducted thirteen semi-structured in-depth interviews with key stakeholders directly involved in the CBHI implementation process. The data were analyzed using the Framework analysis method. RESULTS: The implementation of CBHI schemes in Bangladesh is being constrained by several issues, including inadequate population coverage, adverse selection and moral hazard, lack of knowledge about health insurance principles, a lack of external assistance, and insufficient medical supplies. Door-to-door visits by local community-health workers, as well as regular promotional and educational campaigns involving community influencers, were suggested by stakeholders as ways to educate and encourage people to join the schemes. Stakeholders emphasized the necessity of external assistance and the design of a comprehensive benefits package to attract more people. They also recommended adopting a public-private partnership with a belief that collaboration among the government, microfinance institutions, and cooperative societies will enhance trust and population coverage in Bangladesh. CONCLUSIONS: Our research concludes that systematically addressing implementation barriers by including key stakeholders would be a significant reform to the CBHI model, and could serve as a foundation for the planned national health protection scheme for Bangladesh leading to universal health coverage.
Assuntos
Seguro de Saúde Baseado na Comunidade , Bangladesh , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Seguro Saúde , Cobertura Universal do Seguro de SaúdeRESUMO
Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a major public health problem as they pose a serious risk for patients and providers, increasing morbidity, mortality, and length of stay, as well as costs to patients and the health system. Prevention and control of HAIs has, therefore, become a priority for most healthcare systems. Systems simulation models have provided insights into the dynamics of HAIs and help to evaluate the effect of infection control interventions. However, as each systems simulation modeling method has strengths and limitations, combining these methods in hybrid models can offer a better tool to gain complementary views on, and deeper insights into HAIs. Hybrid models can, therefore, assist decision-making at different levels of management, and provide a balance between simulation performance and result accuracy. This report discusses these benefits in more depth but also highlights some challenges associated with the use of hybrid simulation models for modeling HAIs.
Assuntos
Infecção Hospitalar , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Controle de InfecçõesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This study examines the impact of visitation and cohorting policies as well as the care home population size upon the spread of COVID-19 and the risk of outbreak occurrence in this setting. METHODS: Agent-based modelling RESULTS: The likelihood of the presence of an outbreak in a care home is associated with the care home population size. Cohorting of residents and staff into smaller, self-contained units reduces the spread of COVID-19. Restricting the number of visitors to the care home to shield its residents does not significantly impact the cumulative number of infected residents and risk of outbreak occurrence in most scenarios. Only when the community prevalence where staff live is considerably lower than the prevalence where visitors live (the former prevalence is less than or equal to 30% of the latter), relaxing visitation increases predicted infections much more significantly than it does in other scenarios. Maintaining a low infection probability per resident-visitor contact helps reduce the effect of allowing more visitors into care homes. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predictions suggest that cohorting is effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in care homes. However, according to predictions shielding residents in care homes is not as effective as predicted in a number of studies that have modelled shielding of vulnerable population in the wider communities.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Casas de Saúde , Visitas a Pacientes , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , PolíticasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Care homes are vulnerable to widespread transmission of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with poor outcomes for staff and residents. Infection control interventions in care homes need to not only be effective in containing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but also feasible to implement in this special setting which is both a healthcare institution and a home. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via contacts between individuals, including residents, staff members, and visitors in a care home setting. We explored a representative care home in Scotland in our base case and explore other care home setups in an uncertainty analysis. We evaluated the effectiveness of a range of intervention strategies in controlling the spread of COVID-19. RESULTS: In the presence of the reference interventions that have been implemented in many care homes, including testing of new admissions, isolation of symptomatic residents, and restricted public visiting, routine testing of staff appears to be the most effective and practical approach. Routine testing of residents is no more effective as a reference strategy while routine testing of both staff and residents only shows a negligible additive effect. Modeling results are very sensitive to transmission probability per contact, but the qualitative finding is robust to varying parameter values in our uncertainty analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predictions suggest that routine testing should target staff in care homes in conjunction with adherence to strict hand hygiene and using personal protective equipment to reduce risk of transmission per contact.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Higiene das Mãos , Humanos , Controle de Infecções , Equipamento de Proteção Individual , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Residents living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are at high risk of contracting healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). The unique operational and cultural characteristics of LTCFs and the currently evolving models of healthcare delivery in Scotland create great challenges for infection prevention and control (IPC). Existing literature that discusses the challenges of infection control in LTCFs focuses on operational factors within a facility and does not explore the challenges associated with higher levels of management and the lack of evidence to support IPC practices in this setting.1-7 Here, we provide a broader view of challenges faced by LTCFs in the context of the current health and social care models in Scotland. Many of these challenges are also faced in the rest of the United Kingdom and internationally.
Assuntos
Infecção Hospitalar , Assistência de Longa Duração , Infecção Hospitalar/prevenção & controle , Instalações de Saúde , Humanos , Controle de Infecções , EscóciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are a global health burden because of their significant impact on patient health and health care systems. Mechanistic simulation modeling that captures the dynamics between patients, pathogens, and the environment is increasingly being used to improve understanding of epidemiological patterns of HAIs and to facilitate decisions on infection prevention and control (IPC). The purpose of this review is to present a systematic review to establish (1) how simulation models have been used to investigate HAIs and their mitigation and (2) how these models have evolved over time, as well as identify (3) gaps in their adoption and (4) useful directions for their future development. METHODS: The review involved a systematic search and identification of studies using system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based model to study HAIs. RESULTS: The complexity of simulation models developed for HAIs significantly increased but heavily concentrated on transmission dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the hospitals of high-income countries. Neither HAIs in other health care settings, the influence of contact networks within a health care facility, nor patient sharing and referring networks across health care settings were sufficiently understood. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review provides a broader overview of existing simulation models in HAIs to identify the gaps and to direct and facilitate further development of appropriate models in this emerging field.