How to preserve coastal wetlands, threatened by climate change-driven rises in sea level.

A habitat transition model, based on the correlation between individual habitats and micro-elevation intervals, showed substantial changes in the future spatial distributions of coastal habitats. The research was performed within two protected areas in Slovenia: Secovlje Salina Nature Park and Skocjan Inlet Nature Reserve. Shifts between habitats will occur, but a general decline of 42 % for all Natura 2000 habitats is projected by 2060, according to local or global (IPCC AR4) sea level rise predictions. Three different countermeasures for the long-term conservation of targeted habitat types were proposed. The most "natural" is displacement of coastal habitats using buffer zones (1) were available. Another solution is construction of artificial islets, made of locally dredged material (2); a feasible solution in both protected areas. Twenty-two islets and a dried salt pan zone at the desired elevations suitable for those habitats that have been projected to decease in area would offer an additional 10 ha in the Secovlje Salina. Twenty-one islets and two peninsulas at two different micro-altitudes would ensure the survival of 13 ha of three different habitats. In the area of Secovlje Salina, abandoned salt pans could be terrestrialized by using permanent, artificial sea barriers, in a manner close to poldering (3). By using this countermeasure, another 32 ha of targeted habitat could be preserved. It can be concluded that, for each coastal area, where wetland habitats will shrink, strategic plans involving any of the three solutions should be prepared well in advance. The specific examples provided might facilitate adaptive management of coastal wetlands in general.

Evaluating Seagrass Meadow Dynamics by Integrating Field-Based and Remote Sensing Techniques.

Marine phanerogams are considered biological sentinels or indicators since any modification in seagrass meadow distribution and coverage signals negative changes in the marine environment. In recent decades, seagrass meadows have undergone global losses at accelerating rates, and almost one-third of their coverage has disappeared globally. This study focused on the dynamics of seagrass meadows in the northern Adriatic Sea, which is one of the most anthropogenically affected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. Seagrass distribution data and remote sensing products were utilized to identify the stable and dynamic parts of the seagrass ecosystem. Different seagrass species could not be distinguished with the Sentinel-2 (BOA) satellite image. However, results revealed a generally stable seagrass meadow (283.5 Ha) but, on the other hand, a stochastic behavior in seagrass meadow retraction (90.8 Ha) linked to local environmental processes associated with anthropogenic activities or climate change. If systemized, this proposed approach to monitoring seagrass meadow dynamics could be developed as a spatial decision support system for the entire Mediterranean basin. Such a tool could serve as a key element for decision makers in marine protected areas and would potentially support more effective conservation and management actions in these highly productive and important environments.

The Lyme Borreliosis Spatial Footprint in the 21st Century: A Key Study of Slovenia.

After mosquitoes, ticks are the most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in public health. In recent decades, we discovered new tick-borne diseases; additionally, those that are already known are spreading to new areas because of climate change. Slovenia is an endemic region for Lyme borreliosis and one of the countries with the highest incidence of this disease on a global scale. Thus, the spatial pattern of Slovenian Lyme borreliosis prevalence was modelled with 246 indicators and transformed into 24 uncorrelated predictor variables that were applied in geographically weighted regression and regression tree algorithms. The projected potential shifts in Lyme borreliosis foci by 2050 and 2070 were calculated according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These results were further applied to developing a Slovenian Lyme borreliosis infection risk map, which could be used as a preventive decision support system.

GIS-based modelling reveals the fate of antlion habitats in the Deliblato Sands.

The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and -spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confirmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, significantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the first half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for effective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.