Associations of "Weekend Warrior" Physical Activity With Incident Disease and Cardiometabolic Health.

BACKGROUND: Achievement of guideline-recommended levels of physical activity (≥150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week) is associated with lower risk of adverse cardiovascular events and represents an important public health priority. Although physical activity commonly follows a "weekend warrior" pattern, in which most moderate-to-vigorous physical activity is concentrated in 1 or 2 days rather than spread more evenly across the week (regular), the effects of physical activity pattern across a range of incident diseases, including cardiometabolic conditions, are unknown. METHODS: We tested associations between physical activity pattern and incidence of 678 conditions in 89 573 participants (62±8 years of age; 56% women) of the UK Biobank prospective cohort study who wore an accelerometer for 1 week between June 2013 and December 2015. Models were adjusted for multiple baseline clinical factors, and P value thresholds were corrected for multiplicity. RESULTS: When compared to inactive (<150 minutes moderate-to-vigorous physical activity/week), both weekend warrior (267 total associations; 264 [99%] with lower disease risk; hazard ratio [HR] range, 0.35-0.89) and regular activity (209 associations; 205 [98%] with lower disease risk; HR range, 0.41-0.88) were broadly associated with lower risk of incident disease. The strongest associations were observed for cardiometabolic conditions such as incident hypertension (weekend warrior: HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.73-0.80]; P=1.2×10-27; regular: HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.68-0.77]; P=4.5×10-28), diabetes (weekend warrior: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.51-0.62]; P=3.9×10-32; regular: HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.48-0.60]; P=8.7×10-26), obesity (weekend warrior: HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.50-0.60]; P=2.4×10-43, regular: HR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.40-0.50]; P=9.6×10-47), and sleep apnea (weekend warrior: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.48-0.69]; P=1.6×10-9; regular: HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.39-0.62]; P=7.4×10-10). When weekend warrior and regular activity were compared directly, there were no conditions for which effects differed significantly. Observations were similar when activity was thresholded at the sample median (≥230.4 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity/week). CONCLUSIONS: Achievement of measured physical activity volumes consistent with guideline recommendations is associated with lower risk for >200 diseases, with prominent effects on cardiometabolic conditions. Associations appear similar whether physical activity follows a weekend warrior pattern or is spread more evenly throughout the week.

Rare Genetic Variants in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 are Associated with Aortic Stenosis.

Background: Despite a proposed causal role for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in aortic stenosis (AS), randomized controlled trials of lipid-lowering therapy failed to prevent severe AS. We aimed to assess the impact on AS and peak velocity across the aortic valve conferred by lifelong alterations in LDL-C levels mediated by protein-disrupting variants in three clinically significant genes for LDL metabolism (LDLR, APOB, PCSK9). Methods: We utilized sequencing data and electronic health records from UK Biobank (UKB) and All of Us and magnetic resonance imaging data from UKB. We identified predicted protein-disrupting variants with the LOFTEE and AlphaMissense algorithms and evaluated their associations with LDL-C and peak velocity across the aortic valve (UK Biobank), as well as diagnosed AS and aortic valve replacement (UK Biobank + All of Us). Results: We included 421,049 unrelated participants (5,621 with AS) in UKB and 195,519 unrelated participants (1,087 with AS) in All of Us. Carriers of protein-disrupting variants in LDLR had higher mean LDL-C (UKB: +42.6 mg/dl, P=4.4e-237) and greater risk of AS (meta-analysis: odds ratio [OR] =3.52 [95% CI 2.39-5.20], P=2.3e-10) and aortic valve replacement (meta-analysis: OR=3.78 [95% CI 2.26-6.32], P=4.0e-7). Carriers of protein-disrupting variants in APOB or PCSK9 had lower mean LDL-C (UKB: -32.3 mg/dl, P<5e-324) and lower risk of AS (meta-analysis: OR=0.49 [0.31-0.75], P=0.001) and aortic valve replacement (meta-analysis: OR=0.54 [0.30-0.97], P=0.04). Among 57,371 UKB imaging substudy participants, peak velocities across the aortic valve were greater in carriers of protein-disrupting variants in LDLR (+12.2cm/s, P=1.6e-5) and lower in carriers of protein-disrupting variants in PCSK9 (-6.9cm/s, P=0.022). Conclusions: Rare genetic variants that confer lifelong higher or lower LDL-C levels are associated with substantially increased and decreased risk of AS, respectively. Early and sustained lipid-lowering therapy may slow or prevent AS development.

The AORTA Gene score for detection and risk stratification of ascending aortic dilation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study assessed whether a model incorporating clinical features and a polygenic score for ascending aortic diameter would improve diameter estimation and prediction of adverse thoracic aortic events over clinical features alone. METHODS: Aortic diameter estimation models were built with a 1.1 million-variant polygenic score (AORTA Gene) and without it. Models were validated internally in 4394 UK Biobank participants and externally in 5469 individuals from Mass General Brigham (MGB) Biobank, 1298 from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), and 610 from All of Us. Model fit for adverse thoracic aortic events was compared in 401 453 UK Biobank and 164 789 All of Us participants. RESULTS: AORTA Gene explained more of the variance in thoracic aortic diameter compared to clinical factors alone: 39.5% (95% confidence interval 37.3%-41.8%) vs. 29.3% (27.0%-31.5%) in UK Biobank, 36.5% (34.4%-38.5%) vs. 32.5% (30.4%-34.5%) in MGB, 41.8% (37.7%-45.9%) vs. 33.0% (28.9%-37.2%) in FHS, and 34.9% (28.8%-41.0%) vs. 28.9% (22.9%-35.0%) in All of Us. AORTA Gene had a greater area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for identifying diameter ≥ 4 cm: 0.836 vs. 0.776 (P < .0001) in UK Biobank, 0.808 vs. 0.767 in MGB (P < .0001), 0.856 vs. 0.818 in FHS (P < .0001), and 0.827 vs. 0.791 (P = .0078) in All of Us. AORTA Gene was more informative for adverse thoracic aortic events in UK Biobank (P = .0042) and All of Us (P = .049). CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive model incorporating polygenic information and clinical risk factors explained 34.9%-41.8% of the variation in ascending aortic diameter, improving the identification of ascending aortic dilation and adverse thoracic aortic events compared to clinical risk factors.

Genetic testing in early-onset atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a globally prevalent cardiac arrhythmia with significant genetic underpinnings, as highlighted by recent large-scale genetic studies. A prominent clinical and genetic overlap exists between AF, heritable ventricular cardiomyopathies, and arrhythmia syndromes, underlining the potential of AF as an early indicator of severe ventricular disease in younger individuals. Indeed, several recent studies have demonstrated meaningful yields of rare pathogenic variants among early-onset AF patients (∼4%-11%), most notably for cardiomyopathy genes in which rare variants are considered clinically actionable. Genetic testing thus presents a promising opportunity to identify monogenetic defects linked to AF and inherited cardiac conditions, such as cardiomyopathy, and may contribute to prognosis and management in early-onset AF patients. A first step towards recognizing this monogenic contribution was taken with the Class IIb recommendation for genetic testing in AF patients aged 45 years or younger by the 2023 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for AF. By identifying pathogenic genetic variants known to underlie inherited cardiomyopathies and arrhythmia syndromes, a personalized care pathway can be developed, encompassing more tailored screening, cascade testing, and potentially genotype-informed prognosis and preventive measures. However, this can only be ensured by frameworks that are developed and supported by all stakeholders. Ambiguity in test results such as variants of uncertain significance remain a major challenge and as many as ∼60% of people with early-onset AF might carry such variants. Patient education (including pretest counselling), training of genetic teams, selection of high-confidence genes, and careful reporting are strategies to mitigate this. Further challenges to implementation include financial barriers, insurability issues, workforce limitations, and the need for standardized definitions in a fast-moving field. Moreover, the prevailing genetic evidence largely rests on European descent populations, underscoring the need for diverse research cohorts and international collaboration. Embracing these challenges and the potential of genetic testing may improve AF care. However, further research-mechanistic, translational, and clinical-is urgently needed.

Cost-effectiveness of early rhythm control vs. usual care in atrial fibrillation care: an analysis based on data from the EAST-AFNET 4 trial.

AIMS: The randomized, controlled EAST-AFNET 4 trial showed that early rhythm control (ERC) reduces the rate of a composite primary outcome (cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for worsening heart failure or acute coronary syndrome) by ∼20%. The current study examined the cost-effectiveness of ERC compared to usual care. METHODS AND RESULTS: This within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was based on data from the German subsample of the EAST-AFNET 4 trial (n = 1664/2789 patients). Over a 6-year time horizon and from a healthcare payer's perspective, ERC was compared to usual care regarding costs (hospitalization and medication) and effects (time to primary outcome; years survived). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were constructed to visualize uncertainty. Early rhythm control was associated with higher costs [+€1924, 95% CI (-€399, €4246)], resulting in ICERs of €10 638 per additional year without a primary outcome and €22 536 per life year gained. The probability of ERC being cost-effective compared to usual care was ≥95% or ≥80% at a willingness-to-pay value of ≥€55 000 per additional year without a primary outcome or life year gained, respectively. CONCLUSION: From a German healthcare payer's perspective, health benefits of ERC may come at reasonable costs as indicated by the ICER point estimates. Taking statistical uncertainty into account, cost-effectiveness of ERC is highly probable at a willingness-to-pay value of ≥€55 000 per additional life year or year without a primary outcome. Future studies examining the cost-effectiveness of ERC in other countries, subgroups with higher benefit from rhythm control therapy, or cost-effectiveness of different modes of ERC are warranted.

Bipolar ablation of therapy-refractory ventricular arrhythmias: application of a dedicated approach.

AIMS: Bipolar radiofrequency ablation (B-RFA) has been reported as a bail-out strategy for the treatment of therapy refractory ventricular arrhythmias (VA). Currently, existing setups have not been standardized for B-RFA, while the impact of conventional B-RFA approaches on lesion formation remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: (i) In a multicentre observational study, patients undergoing B-RFA for previously therapy-refractory VA using a dedicated B-RFA setup were retrospectively analysed. (ii) Additionally, in an ex vivo model lesion formation during B-RFA was evaluated using porcine hearts. In a total of 26 procedures (24 patients), acute success was achieved in all 14 ventricular tachycardia (VT) procedures and 7/12 procedures with premature ventricular contractions (PVC), with major complications occurring in 1 procedure (atrioventricular block). During a median follow-up of 211 days in 21 patients, 6/11 patients (VT) and 5/10 patients (PVC) remained arrhythmia-free. Lesion formation in the ex vivo model during energy titration from 30 to 50 W led to similar lesion volumes compared with initial high-power 50 W B-RFA. Lesion size significantly increased when combining sequential unipolar and B-RFA (1429 mm3 vs. titration 501 mm3 vs. B-RFA 50 W 423 mm3, P < 0.001), an approach used in overall 58% of procedures and more frequently applied in procedures without VA recurrence (92% vs. 36%, P = 0.009). Adipose tissue severely limited lesion formation during B-RFA. CONCLUSION: Using a dedicated device for B-RFA for therapy-refractory VA appears feasible and safe. While some patients need repeat ablation, success rates were encouraging. Sequential unipolar and B-RFA may be favourable for lesion formation.

Short Exposure to Ethanol Diminishes Caspase-1 and ASC Activation in Human HepG2 Cells In Vitro.

This paper discusses how the assembly of pro-caspase-1 and apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase-recruitment domain (ASC) in macromolecular protein complexes, inflammasomes, activates caspase-1. The present study investigates the molecular mechanisms of inflammasome activation in HepG2 cells and examines how short exposures to ethanol (EtOH) affect inflammasome activation. HepG2 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), ATP or nigericin (NIG) in a two-step model. After LPS priming, ATP or NIG were added. As inhibitors, sodium orthovanadate (general inhibitor of tyrosine phosphatases), AC-YVAD-CMK (caspase-1 inhibitor) or AZ10606120 (purinergic receptor P2X7R inhibitor) were applied after LPS priming. To monitor the inflammasome activation, the caspase-1 activity, ASC speck formation, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell death were analyzed. To elucidate the mechanistical approach of EtOH to the inflammasome assembly, the cells were treated with EtOH either under simultaneous LPS administration or concurrently with ATP or NIG application. The co-stimulation with LPS and ATP induced a significant ASC speck formation, caspase-1 activation, cell death and ROS generation. The inhibition of the ATP-dependent purinoreceptor P2X7 decreased the caspase-1 activation, whereas sodium orthovanadate significantly induced caspase-1. Additional treatment with EtOH reversed the LPS and ATP-induced caspase-1 activation, ASC speck formation and ROS production. The ASC speck formation and caspase-1 induction require a two-step signaling with LPS and ATP in HepG2 cells. Inflammasome activation may depend on P2X7. The molecular pathway of an acute effect of EtOH on inflammasomes may involve a reduction in ROS generation, which in turn may increase the activity of tyrosine phosphatases.

Cytokines in Inflammatory Disease.

This review aims to briefly discuss a short list of a broad variety of inflammatory cytokines. Numerous studies have implicated that inflammatory cytokines exert important effects with regard to various inflammatory diseases, yet the reports on their specific roles are not always consistent. They can be used as biomarkers to indicate or monitor disease or its progress, and also may serve as clinically applicable parameters for therapies. Yet, their precise role is not always clearly defined. Thus, in this review, we focus on the existing literature dealing with the biology of cytokines interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1, IL-33, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-10, and IL-8. We will briefly focus on the correlations and role of these inflammatory mediators in the genesis of inflammatory impacts (e.g., shock, trauma, immune dysregulation, osteoporosis, and/or critical illness).

Reduced NLRP3 Gene Expression Limits the IL-1ß Cleavage via Inflammasome in Monocytes from Severely Injured Trauma Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Traumatic injury or severe surgery leads to a profound immune response with a diminished functionality of monocytes and subsequently their IL-1ß release. IL-1ß plays an important role in host immunity and protection against infections. Its biological activation via IL-1ß-precursor processing requires the transcription of inflammasome components and their activation. Deregulated activity of NOD-like receptor inflammasomes (NLR) like NLRP3 that leads to the maturation of IL-1ß has been described in various diseases. While the role of other inflammasomes has been studied in monocytes, nothing is known about NLRP3 inflammasome after a traumatic injury. Here, the role of the NLRP3 inflammasome in impaired monocyte functionality after a traumatic injury was analyzed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ex vivo-in vitro stimulation of isolated CD14+ monocytes with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) showed a significantly higher IL-1ß secretion in healthy volunteers (HV) compared to trauma patients (TP) after admission. Reduced IL-1ß secretion was paralleled by significantly lowered gene expression of NLRP3 in monocytes from TP compared to those of HV. Transfection of monocytes with NLRP3-encoding plasmid recovered the functionality of monocytes from TP regarding the IL-1ß secretion. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that CD14+ monocytes from TP are significantly diminished in their function and that the presence of NLRP3 components is necessary in recovering the ability of monocytes to produce active IL-1ß. This recovery of the NLRP3 inflammasome in monocytes may imply a new target for treatment and therapy of immune suppression after severe injury.

Suppression of the interleukin-1ß-induced inflammatory response of human Chang liver cells by acute and subacute exposure to alcohol: an in vitro study.

AIM: To evaluate protective immunosuppressive dose and time-dependent effects of ethanol in an in vitro model of acute inflammation in human Chang liver cells. METHOD: The study was performed in 2016 and 2017 in the research laboratory of the Department of Trauma, Hand and Reconstructive Surgery, the University Hospital of the Goethe-University Frankfurt. Chang liver cells were stimulated with either interleukin (IL)-1ß or IL-6 and subsequently treated with low-dose ethanol (85 mmol/L) or high-dose ethanol (170 mmol/L) for one hour (acute exposure) or 72 hours (subacute exposure). IL-6 and IL-1ß release were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Neutrophil adhesion to Chang liver monolayers, production of reactive oxygen species, and apoptosis or necrosis were analyzed. RESULTS: Contrary to high-dose ethanol, acute low-dose ethanol exposure significantly reduced IL-1ß-induced IL-6 and IL-6-induced IL-1ß release (P<0.05). Subacute ethanol exposure did not change proinflammatory cytokine release. Acute low-dose ethanol exposure significantly decreased inflammation-induced formation of reactive oxygen species (P<0.05) and significantly improved cell survival (P<0.05). Neither acute nor subacute high-dose ethanol exposure significantly changed inflammation-induced changes in reactive oxygen species or survival. Acute and subacute ethanol exposure, independently of the dose, significantly decreased neutrophil adhesion to inflamed Chang liver cells (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Acute treatment of inflamed Chang liver cells with ethanol showed its immunosuppressive potential. However, the observed effects were limited to low-dose setting, indicating the relevance of ethanol dose in the modulation of inflammatory cell response.

Ethanol Decreases Inflammatory Response in Human Lung Epithelial Cells by Inhibiting the Canonical NF-kB-Pathway.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alcohol (ethanol, EtOH) as significant contributor to traumatic injury is linked to suppressed inflammatory response, thereby influencing clinical outcomes. Alcohol-induced immune-suppression during acute inflammation (trauma) was linked to nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-ĸB). Here, we analyzed alcohol`s effects and mechanisms underlying its influence on NF-ĸB-signaling during acute inflammation in human lung epithelial cells. METHODS: A549-cells were stimulated with interleukin (IL)-1ß, or sera from trauma patients (TP) or healthy volunteers, with positive/negative blood alcohol concentrations (BAC), and subsequently exposed to EtOH (170 Mm, 1h). IL-6-release and neutrophil adhesion to A549 were analyzed. Specific siRNA-NIK mediated downregulation of non-canonical, and IKK-NBD-inhibition of canonical NF-ĸB signaling were performed. Nuclear levels of activated p50 and p52 NF-ĸB-subunits were detected using TransAm ELISA. RESULTS: Both stimuli significantly induced IL-6-release (39.79±4.70 vs. 0.58±0.8 pg/ml) and neutrophil adhesion (132.30±8.80 vs. 100% control, p<0.05) to A549-cells. EtOH significantly decreased IL-6-release (22.90±5.40, p<0.05) and neutrophil adherence vs. controls (105.40±14.5%, p<0.05). IL-1ß-induced significant activation of canonical/p50 and non-canonical/p52 pathways. EtOH significantly reduced p50 (34.90±23.70 vs. 197.70±36.43, p<0.05) not p52 activation. Inhibition of canonical pathway was further increased by EtOH (less p50-activation), while p52 remained unaltered. Inhibition of non-canonical pathway was unchanged by EtOH. CONCLUSION: Here, alcohol`s anti-inflammatory effects are mediated via decreasing nuclear levels of activated p50-subunit and canonical NF-ĸB signaling pathway.

[Genetic basis of atrial fibrillation-on the road to precision medicine]. / Die Genetik von Vorhofflimmern ­ auf dem Weg in die Präzisionsmedizin.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and has complex genetic underpinnings. Despite advancements in treatment, mortality of AF patients remains high. This review discusses the genetic basis of AF and its implications for diagnosis and therapy. Although AF pathology has long been known to include a hereditary component, the first genes associated with AF were not identified until the early 2000s. Subsequent research with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has implicated other genes and numerous genetic variants in AF. These studies have revealed nearly 140 different regions in the DNA with genome-wide significance associated with AF. In addition to common variants, rare variants with large effects have also been identified. The integration of these genetic findings into clinical practice holds promise for improving AF diagnosis and treatment, moving us closer to precision medicine. However, challenges remain, including the need for more diverse genetic data of non-European ancestry and improved genetic analyses of responses to AF therapy.

Cardiovascular Significance and Genetics of Epicardial and Pericardial Adiposity.

Importance: Epicardial and pericardial adipose tissue (EPAT) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases such as atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF) and coronary artery disease (CAD), but studies have been limited in sample size or drawn from selected populations. It has been suggested that the association between EPAT and cardiovascular disease could be mediated by local or paracrine effects. Objective: To evaluate the association of EPAT with prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease and to elucidate the genetic basis of EPAT in a large population cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: A deep learning model was trained to quantify EPAT area from 4-chamber magnetic resonance images using semantic segmentation. Cross-sectional and prospective cardiovascular disease associations were evaluated, controlling for sex and age. Prospective associations were additionally controlled for abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT) volumes. A genome-wide association study was performed, and a polygenic score (PGS) for EPAT was examined in independent FinnGen cohort study participants. Data analyses were conducted from March 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: The primary exposures were magnetic resonance imaging-derived continuous measurements of epicardial and pericardial adipose tissue area and visceral adipose tissue volume. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalent and incident CAD, AF, heart failure (HF), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Results: After exclusions, this study included 44 475 participants (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [7.7] years; 22 972 female [51.7%]) from the UK Biobank. Cross-sectional and prospective cardiovascular disease associations were evaluated for a mean (SD) of 3.2 (1.5) years of follow-up. Prospective associations were additionally controlled for abdominal VAT volumes for 38 527 participants. A PGS for EPAT was examined in 453 733 independent FinnGen cohort study participants. EPAT was positively associated with male sex (ß = +0.78 SD in EPAT; P < 3 × 10-324), age (Pearson r = 0.15; P = 9.3 × 10-229), body mass index (Pearson r = 0.47; P < 3 × 10-324), and VAT (Pearson r = 0.72; P < 3 × 10-324). EPAT was more elevated in prevalent HF (ß = +0.46 SD units) and T2D (ß = +0.56) than in CAD (ß = +0.23) or AF (ß = +0.18). EPAT was associated with incident HF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29 per +1 SD in EPAT; 95% CI, 1.17-1.43), T2D (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.51-1.76), and CAD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28). However, the associations were no longer significant when controlling for VAT. Seven genetic loci were identified for EPAT, implicating transcriptional regulators of adipocyte morphology and brown adipogenesis (EBF1, EBF2, and CEBPA) and regulators of visceral adiposity (WARS2 and TRIB2). The EPAT PGS was associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07; P =3.6 × 10-44), HF (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.06; P =4.8 × 10-15), CAD (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05; P =1.4 × 10-17), AF (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.06; P =7.6 × 10-12), and stroke in FinnGen (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P =3.5 × 10-3) per 1 SD in PGS. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest that epicardial and pericardial adiposity was associated with incident cardiovascular diseases, but this may largely reflect a metabolically unhealthy adiposity phenotype similar to abdominal visceral adiposity.

Integrating Clinical, Genetic, and Electrocardiogram-Based Artificial Intelligence to Estimate Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Background: AF risk estimation is feasible using clinical factors, inherited predisposition, and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. Objective: To test whether integrating these distinct risk signals improves AF risk estimation. Methods: In the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, we estimated AF risk using three models derived from external populations: the well-validated Cohorts for Aging in Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE-AF) clinical score, a 1,113,667-variant AF polygenic risk score (PRS), and a published AI-enabled ECG-based AF risk model (ECG-AI). We estimated discrimination of 5-year incident AF using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and average precision (AP). Results: Among 49,293 individuals (mean age 65±8 years, 52% women), 825 (2.4%) developed AF within 5 years. Using single models, discrimination of 5-year incident AF was higher using ECG-AI (AUROC 0.705 [95%CI 0.686-0.724]; AP 0.085 [0.071-0.11]) and CHARGE-AF (AUROC 0.785 [0.769-0.801]; AP 0.053 [0.048-0.061]) versus the PRS (AUROC 0.618, [0.598-0.639]; AP 0.038 [0.028-0.045]). The inclusion of all components ("Predict-AF3") was the best performing model (AUROC 0.817 [0.802-0.832]; AP 0.11 [0.091-0.15], p<0.01 vs CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI), followed by the two component model of CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI (AUROC 0.802 [0.786-0.818]; AP 0.098 [0.081-0.13]). Using Predict-AF3, individuals at high AF risk (i.e., 5-year predicted AF risk >2.5%) had a 5-year cumulative incidence of AF of 5.83% (5.33-6.32). At the same threshold, the 5-year cumulative incidence of AF was progressively higher according to the number of models predicting high risk (zero: 0.67% [0.51-0.84], one: 1.48% [1.28-1.69], two: 4.48% [3.99-4.98]; three: 11.06% [9.48-12.61]), and Predict-AF3 achieved favorable net reclassification improvement compared to both CHARGE-AF+ECG-AI (0.039 [0.015-0.066]) and CHARGE-AF+PRS (0.033 [0.0082-0.059]). Conclusions: Integration of clinical, genetic, and AI-derived risk signals improves discrimination of 5-year AF risk over individual components. Models such as Predict-AF3 have substantial potential to improve prioritization of individuals for AF screening and preventive interventions.

Deep learning of left atrial structure and function provides link to atrial fibrillation risk.

Increased left atrial volume and decreased left atrial function have long been associated with atrial fibrillation. The availability of large-scale cardiac magnetic resonance imaging data paired with genetic data provides a unique opportunity to assess the genetic contributions to left atrial structure and function, and understand their relationship with risk for atrial fibrillation. Here, we use deep learning and surface reconstruction models to measure left atrial minimum volume, maximum volume, stroke volume, and emptying fraction in 40,558 UK Biobank participants. In a genome-wide association study of 35,049 participants without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, we identify 20 common genetic loci associated with left atrial structure and function. We find that polygenic contributions to increased left atrial volume are associated with atrial fibrillation and its downstream consequences, including stroke. Through Mendelian randomization, we find evidence supporting a causal role for left atrial enlargement and dysfunction on atrial fibrillation risk.

Noninvasive assessment of organ-specific and shared pathways in multi-organ fibrosis using T1 mapping.

Fibrotic diseases affect multiple organs and are associated with morbidity and mortality. To examine organ-specific and shared biologic mechanisms that underlie fibrosis in different organs, we developed machine learning models to quantify T1 time, a marker of interstitial fibrosis, in the liver, pancreas, heart and kidney among 43,881 UK Biobank participants who underwent magnetic resonance imaging. In phenome-wide association analyses, we demonstrate the association of increased organ-specific T1 time, reflecting increased interstitial fibrosis, with prevalent diseases across multiple organ systems. In genome-wide association analyses, we identified 27, 18, 11 and 10 independent genetic loci associated with liver, pancreas, myocardial and renal cortex T1 time, respectively. There was a modest genetic correlation between the examined organs. Several loci overlapped across the examined organs implicating genes involved in a myriad of biologic pathways including metal ion transport (SLC39A8, HFE and TMPRSS6), glucose metabolism (PCK2), blood group antigens (ABO and FUT2), immune function (BANK1 and PPP3CA), inflammation (NFKB1) and mitosis (CENPE). Finally, we found that an increasing number of organs with T1 time falling in the top quintile was associated with increased mortality in the population. Individuals with a high burden of fibrosis in ≥3 organs had a 3-fold increase in mortality compared to those with a low burden of fibrosis across all examined organs in multivariable-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio = 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.77-6.19; P = 1.78 × 10-4). By leveraging machine learning to quantify T1 time across multiple organs at scale, we uncovered new organ-specific and shared biologic pathways underlying fibrosis that may provide therapeutic targets.

Rare coding variant analysis for human diseases across biobanks and ancestries.

Large-scale sequencing has enabled unparalleled opportunities to investigate the role of rare coding variation in human phenotypic variability. Here, we present a pan-ancestry analysis of sequencing data from three large biobanks, including the All of Us research program. Using mixed-effects models, we performed gene-based rare variant testing for 601 diseases across 748,879 individuals, including 155,236 with ancestry dissimilar to European. We identified 363 significant associations, which highlighted core genes for the human disease phenome and identified potential novel associations, including UBR3 for cardiometabolic disease and YLPM1 for psychiatric disease. Pan-ancestry burden testing represented an inclusive and useful approach for discovery in diverse datasets, although we also highlight the importance of ancestry-specific sensitivity analyses in this setting. Finally, we found that effect sizes for rare protein-disrupting variants were concordant between samples similar to European ancestry and other genetic ancestries (ßDeming = 0.7-1.0). Our results have implications for multi-ancestry and cross-biobank approaches in sequencing association studies for human disease.

Blood-based cardiometabolic phenotypes in atrial fibrillation and their associated risk: EAST-AFNET 4 biomolecule study.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant cardiometabolic disease processes interact and combine to lead to adverse events, such as stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death. Circulating biomolecules provide quantifiable proxies for cardiometabolic disease processes. The aim of this study was to test whether biomolecule combinations can define phenotypes in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This pre-specified analysis of the EAST-AFNET 4 biomolecule study assigned patients to clusters using polytomous variable latent-class analysis based on baseline concentrations of 13 precisely quantified biomolecules potentially reflecting ageing, cardiac fibrosis, metabolic dysfunction, oxidative stress, cardiac load, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation. In each cluster, rates of cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure or acute coronary syndrome, the primary outcome of EAST-AFNET 4, were calculated and compared between clusters over median 5.1 years follow-up. Findings were independently validated in a prospective cohort of 748 patients with AF (BBC-AF; median follow-up 2.9 years).Unsupervised biomolecule analysis assigned 1586 patients (71 years old, 46% women) into four clusters. The highest risk cluster was dominated by elevated bone morphogenetic protein 10, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, angiopoietin 2, and growth differentiation factor 15. Patients in the lowest risk cluster showed low concentrations of these biomolecules. Two intermediate-risk clusters differed by high or low concentrations of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and D-dimer. Patients in the highest risk cluster had a five-fold higher cardiovascular event rate than patients in the low-risk cluster. Early rhythm control was effective across clusters (Pinteraction = 0.63). Sensitivity analyses and external validation in BBC-AF replicated clusters and risk gradients. CONCLUSION: Biomolecule concentrations identify cardiometabolic subphenotypes in patients with AF at high and low cardiovascular risk.

AORTA Gene: Polygenic prediction improves detection of thoracic aortic aneurysm.

Background: Thoracic aortic disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the US, and aortic diameter is a heritable contributor to risk. Could a polygenic prediction of ascending aortic diameter improve detection of aortic aneurysm? Methods: Deep learning was used to measure ascending thoracic aortic diameter in 49,939 UK Biobank participants. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted in 39,524 participants and leveraged to build a 1.1 million-variant polygenic score with PRScs-auto. Aortic diameter prediction models were built with the polygenic score ("AORTA Gene") and without it. The models were tested in a held-out set of 4,962 UK Biobank participants and externally validated in 5,469 participants from Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGB), 1,298 from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), and 610 participants from All of Us. Results: In each test set, the AORTA Gene model explained more of the variance in thoracic aortic diameter compared to clinical factors alone: 39.9% (95% CI 37.8-42.0%) vs 29.2% (95% CI 27.1-31.4%) in UK Biobank, 36.5% (95% CI 34.4-38.5%) vs 32.5% (95% CI 30.4-34.5%) in MGB, 41.8% (95% CI 37.7-45.9%) vs 33.0% (95% CI 28.9-37.2%) in FHS, and 34.9% (95% CI 28.8-41.0%) vs 28.9% (95% CI 22.9-35.0%) in All of Us. AORTA Gene had a greater AUROC for identifying diameter ≥4cm in each test set: 0.834 vs 0.765 (P=7.3E-10) in UK Biobank, 0.808 vs 0.767 in MGB (P=4.5E-12), 0.856 vs 0.818 in FHS (P=8.5E-05), and 0.827 vs 0.791 (P=7.8E-03) in All of Us. Conclusions: Genetic information improved estimation of thoracic aortic diameter when added to clinical risk factors. Larger and more diverse cohorts will be needed to develop more powerful and equitable scores.