Associations between pathological features and risk of metachronous colorectal cancer.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient.

Primaquine radical cure in patients with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas co-endemic for P falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (PRIMA): a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In areas co-endemic for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum there is an increased risk of P vivax parasitaemia following P falciparum malaria. Radical cure is currently only recommended for patients presenting with P vivax malaria. Expanding the indication for radical cure to patients presenting with P falciparum malaria could reduce their risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial in five health clinics in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, patients were excluded if they were younger than 1 year, whereas in Ethiopia patients were excluded if they were younger than 18 years. Patients with uncomplicated P falciparum monoinfection who had fever or a history of fever in the 48 h preceding clinic visit were eligible for enrolment and were required to have a glucose-6-dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of 70% or greater. Patients received blood schizontocidal treatment (artemether-lumefantrine in Ethiopia and Bangladesh and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Indonesia) and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either high-dose short-course oral primaquine (intervention arm; total dose 7 mg/kg over 7 days) or standard care (standard care arm; single dose oral primaquine of 0·25 mg/kg). Random assignment was done by an independent statistician in blocks of eight by use of sealed envelopes. All randomly assigned and eligible patients were included in the primary and safety analyses. The per-protocol analysis excluded those who did not complete treatment or had substantial protocol violations. The primary endpoint was the incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia on day 63. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03916003. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2019, and March 14, 2022, a total of 500 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned, and 495 eligible patients were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (246 intervention and 249 control). The incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia at day 63 was 11·0% (95% CI 7·5-15·9) in the standard care arm compared with 2·5% (1·0-5·9) in the intervention arm (hazard ratio 0·20, 95% CI 0·08-0·51; p=0·0009). The effect size differed with blood schizontocidal treatment and site. Routine symptom reporting on day 2 and day 7 were similar between groups. In the first 42 days, there were a total of four primaquine-related adverse events reported in the standard care arm and 26 in the intervention arm; 132 (92%) of all 143 adverse events were mild. There were two serious adverse events in the intervention arm, which were considered unrelated to the study drug. None of the patients developed severe anaemia (defined as haemoglobin <5 g/dL). INTERPRETATION: In patients with a G6PD activity of 70% or greater, high-dose short-course primaquine was safe and relatively well tolerated and reduced the risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia within 63 days by five fold. Universal radical cure therefore potentially offers substantial clinical, public health, and operational benefits, but these benefits will vary with endemic setting. FUNDING: Australian Academy of Science Regional Collaborations Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Health and Medical Research Council.

A Randomized Noninferiority Trial to Compare Enteral to Parenteral Phosphate Replacement on Biochemistry, Waste, and Environmental Impact and Healthcare Cost in Critically Ill Patients With Mild to Moderate Hypophosphatemia.

OBJECTIVES: Hypophosphatemia occurs frequently. Enteral, rather than IV, phosphate replacement may reduce fluid replacement, cost, and waste. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, parallel group, noninferiority clinical trial. SETTING: Single center, 42-bed state trauma, medical and surgical ICUs, from April 20, 2022, to July 1, 2022. PATIENTS: Patients with serum phosphate concentration between 0.3 and 0.75 mmol/L. INTERVENTIONS: We randomized patients to either enteral or IV phosphate replacement using electronic medical record-embedded program. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Our primary outcome was serum phosphate at 24 hours with a noninferiority margin of 0.2 mmol/L. Secondary outcomes included cost savings and environmental waste reduction and additional IV fluid administered. The modified intention-to-treat cohort comprised 131 patients. Baseline phosphate concentrations were similar between the two groups. At 24 hours, mean ( sd ) serum phosphate concentration were enteral 0.89 mmol/L (0.24 mmol/L) and IV 0.82 mmol/L (0.28 mmol/L). This difference was noninferior at the margin of 0.2 mmol/L (difference, 0.07 mmol/L; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.17 mmol/L). When assigned IV replacement, patients received 408 mL (372 mL) of solvent IV fluid. Compared with IV replacement, the mean cost per patient was ten-fold less with enteral replacement ($3.7 [$4.0] vs. IV: $37.7 [$31.4]; difference = $34.0 [95% CI, $26.3-$41.7]) and weight of waste was less (7.7 g [8.3 g] vs. 217 g [169 g]; difference = 209 g [95% CI, 168-250 g]). C O2 emissions were 60-fold less for comparable phosphate replacement (enteral: 2 g producing 14.2 g and 20 mmol of potassium dihydrogen phosphate producing 843 g of C O2 equivalents). CONCLUSIONS: Enteral phosphate replacement in ICU is noninferior to IV replacement at a margin of 0.2 mmol/L but leads to a substantial reduction in cost and waste.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways. METHODS: This analysis included 1208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders. RESULTS: Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.05). CONCLUSION: Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex-hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

Comparison of statistical methods used to meta-analyse results from interrupted time series studies: an empirical study.

BACKGROUND: The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a robust design for evaluating public health and policy interventions or exposures when randomisation may be infeasible. Several statistical methods are available for the analysis and meta-analysis of ITS studies. We sought to empirically compare available methods when applied to real-world ITS data. METHODS: We sourced ITS data from published meta-analyses to create an online data repository. Each dataset was re-analysed using two ITS estimation methods. The level- and slope-change effect estimates (and standard errors) were calculated and combined using fixed-effect and four random-effects meta-analysis methods. We examined differences in meta-analytic level- and slope-change estimates, their 95% confidence intervals, p-values, and estimates of heterogeneity across the statistical methods. RESULTS: Of 40 eligible meta-analyses, data from 17 meta-analyses including 282 ITS studies were obtained (predominantly investigating the effects of public health interruptions (88%)) and analysed. We found that on average, the meta-analytic effect estimates, their standard errors and between-study variances were not sensitive to meta-analysis method choice, irrespective of the ITS analysis method. However, across ITS analysis methods, for any given meta-analysis, there could be small to moderate differences in meta-analytic effect estimates, and important differences in the meta-analytic standard errors. Furthermore, the confidence interval widths and p-values for the meta-analytic effect estimates varied depending on the choice of confidence interval method and ITS analysis method. CONCLUSIONS: Our empirical study showed that meta-analysis effect estimates, their standard errors, confidence interval widths and p-values can be affected by statistical method choice. These differences may importantly impact interpretations and conclusions of a meta-analysis and suggest that the statistical methods are not interchangeable in practice.

The impact of age and parity on the experience of relief and regret in women who have undergone hysterectomy for benign disease: A cross sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of age and parity on the experience on relief and regret following elective hysterectomy for benign disease, and to explore the factors that impact relief and regret. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional survey of a cohort. SETTING: Single-centre tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia. POPULATION: Patients who underwent elective hysterectomy for benign indications from 01 January 2008 - 31 July 2015 (inclusive) with age <51 years at time of admission. METHODS: Eligible participants completed a retrospective survey regarding their experience of relief and regret following hysterectomy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Regret was defined as a positive response to "Do you regret the decision to have a hysterectomy?". Relief was defined as responding "agree/strongly agree" to "I feel relieved I had a hysterectomy". RESULTS: 268 of 1285 (21%) eligible participants completed the study questionnaire. Of these, 29 were aged <36 years at the time of hysterectomy. Seven percent (n=18/262) reported regretting having a hysterectomy and 88% (n=230/262) reported experiencing relief. We did not observe associations between age at hysterectomy and regret (aOR 0.93; 95% CI 0.85, 1.03), age at hysterectomy and relief (aOR 1.01; 95% CI 0.93, 1.09), nulliparity and regret (aOR 0.32; 95% CI 0.06, 1.59) or nulliparity and relief (aOR 2.37; 95% CI 0.75, 7.51). Desire for future pregnancy at the time of hysterectomy was more frequently reported in those who experienced regret vs no regret (46.7% vs 12.1%, OR: 6.33; 95% CI: 2.12, 18.90; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Age and parity are not associated with relief nor regret following elective hysterectomy for benign disease.

Social inequities in early childhood caries in Australia: A population-based study on statewide public dental services data.

BACKGROUND: Social disadvantage leads to dental caries during childhood. AIM: This study investigated whether dental caries occur earlier in children from households experiencing social disadvantage than those not experiencing social disadvantage. DESIGN: The overall risk of, and relative time to, early childhood caries (ECC) according to sociodemographic characteristics in Victoria, Australia, was quantified. Records for 134 463 children in Victoria, Australia, from 2009 to 2019 were analysed. Time ratios (TR) and hazard ratios (HR) of carious lesion(s) in early childhood were estimated. RESULTS: Compared with reference groups, Indigenous children had an adjusted TR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.82), children from households with languages other than English had an adjusted TR of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.84), and dependants of concession cardholders had an adjusted TR of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.81); therefore, 20%, 17% and 19% reduced times to the first carious lesion, respectively. The estimated HRs were 1.57 (95% CI: 1.49, 1.67) for Indigenous children, 1.46 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.50) for children from households with other languages and 1.57 (CI: 1.53, 1.60) for dependants of concession cardholders. CONCLUSION: Preventive oral health interventions must be targeted early in children from households experiencing social disadvantage to avoid social inequities in ECC.

The effect of time before diagnosis and treatment on colorectal cancer outcomes: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate existing evidence on the relationship between diagnostic and treatment intervals and outcomes for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Four databases were searched for English language articles assessing the role of time before initial treatment in colorectal cancer on any outcome, including stage and survival. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion and data were synthesised narratively. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between treatment interval and survival. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty papers were included in the systematic review, eight were included in the meta-analysis. Forty-five different intervals were considered in the time from first symptom to treatment. The most common finding was of no association between the length of intervals on any outcome. The dose-response meta-analysis showed a U-shaped association between the treatment interval and overall survival with the nadir at 45 days. CONCLUSION: The review found inconsistent, but mostly a lack of, association between interval length and colorectal cancer outcomes, but study design and quality were heterogeneous. Meta-analysis suggests survival becomes increasingly poorer for those commencing treatment more than 45 days after diagnosis. REGISTRATION: This review was registered, and the protocol is available, in PROSPERO, the international database of systematic reviews, with the registration ID CRD42021255864.

Responsiveness of Critically Ill Adults With Multimorbidity to Rehabilitation Interventions: A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis Using Individual Pooled Data From Four Randomized Trials.

OBJECTIVE: To explore if patient characteristics (pre-existing comorbidity, age, sex, and illness severity) modify the effect of physical rehabilitation (intervention vs control) for the coprimary outcomes health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and objective physical performance using pooled individual patient data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). DATA SOURCES: Data of individual patients from four critical care physical rehabilitation RCTs. STUDY SELECTION: Eligible trials were identified from a published systematic review. DATA EXTRACTION: Data sharing agreements were executed permitting transfer of anonymized data of individual patients from four trials to form one large, combined dataset. The pooled trial data were analyzed with linear mixed models fitted with fixed effects for treatment group, time, and trial. DATA SYNTHESIS: Four trials contributed data resulting in a combined total of 810 patients (intervention n = 403, control n = 407). After receiving trial rehabilitation interventions, patients with two or more comorbidities had HRQoL scores that were significantly higher and exceeded the minimal important difference at 3 and 6 months compared with the similarly comorbid control group (based on the Physical Component Summary score (Wald test p = 0.041). Patients with one or no comorbidities who received intervention had no HRQoL outcome differences at 3 and 6 months when compared with similarly comorbid control patients. No patient characteristic modified the physical performance outcome in patients who received physical rehabilitation. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of a target group with two or more comorbidities who derived benefits from the trial interventions is an important finding and provides direction for future investigations into the effect of rehabilitation. The multimorbid post-ICU population may be a select population for future prospective investigations into the effect of physical rehabilitation.

Risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer and advanced neoplasia following primary colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous advanced neoplasia could be useful for guiding surveillance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia. METHODS: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials for articles (searching period: 1945 to Feburary, 2021) that reported the results of an association between any factor and metachronous advanced neoplasia or metachronous CRC. There were no restrictions on the publication date or language. Random effects models were fitted to estimate the combined association between the risk factors and metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. The Risk of Bias In Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool (ROBINS-I) was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. RESULTS: In total, 22 observational studies with 625,208 participants were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of these, 13 studies investigated risk factors for metachronous CRC and 9 for advanced neoplasia. The risks of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia were higher if the first CRC was diagnosed in the presence of a synchronous advanced lesion (pooled risk ratio (RR) from 3 studies: 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-9.05; and pooled RR from 8 studies: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.23-3.43, respectively). The risk of metachronous CRC was lower, but the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was higher if the first CRC was distal (compared with proximal) (pooled RR from 3 studies: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.23-0.98; and pooled RR from 2 studies: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.60-5.58 respectively). The risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia increased with age (pooled RR from 3 studies: 1.07 per year of age, 95% CI: 1.03-1.11). There was no evidence that any lifestyle risk factors studied were associated with the risk of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: The identified risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia might be useful to tailor the existing surveillance guidelines after the first CRC. There were potential limitations due to possible misclassification of the outcome, confounding and risk of bias, and the findings cannot be generalised to high-risk genetic syndrome cases.

PRECeDe Pilot: Prevention of neonatal respiratory distress with antenatal corticosteroids before elective caesarean section in women with diabetes - a feasibility randomised trial.

OBJECTIVE: The PRECeDe Pilot Trial was designed to determine the feasibility of undertaking a multicentre, randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the efficacy of antenatal corticosteroids administration within 7 days before elective caesarean section (CS) in women with pre-gestational diabetes (PGDM) or gestational diabetes (GDM). DESIGN: Triple blind, parallel group, placebo-controlled, pilot RCT. SETTING: Single-centre tertiary maternity hospital in Melbourne, Australia. POPULATION: Pregnant women with PGDM (type 1 or type 2 diabetes) or GDM booked for a planned CS scheduled between 35+0 and 38+6 weeks of gestation. METHODS: Eligible participants were randomised to receive two injections of either betamethasone 11.4 mg or normal saline placebo, 24 hours apart within 7 days before CS scheduled between 35+0 and 38+6 weeks of gestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The proportion of eligible women who consented and were randomised. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12619001475134. RESULTS: Of 537 women eligible, 182 were approached and 47 (26%) were recruited. Of these, 22 were allocated to the betamethasone group and 25 were allocated to the placebo group. There were no serious adverse events related to participation. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to undertake a triple-blind, placebo-controlled RCT investigating the efficacy of antenatal corticosteroids in preventing respiratory morbidity in infants of women with PGDM or GDM who are undergoing an elective CS between 35+0 and 38+6 weeks.

Neonatal outcomes following antenatal corticosteroid administration prior to elective caesarean delivery in women with pre-gestational diabetes: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of antenatal corticosteroid (ACS) administration for the prevention of neonatal morbidity and mortality has been well described for preterm infants. Some studies have demonstrated a benefit for infants born by elective caesarean section (CS) at late preterm or term gestations. However, the neonatal benefits of ACS are not well described when given to pregnant women with diabetes. AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the neonatal outcomes following ACS administration in women with pre-gestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM) when administered prior to elective CS after 36 weeks gestation. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included all women with PGDM who gave birth by elective CS between 36+0 and 38+6 weeks gestation. Neonatal outcomes for exposed participants were compared to outcomes for non-exposed participants. RESULTS: Of the 306 women identified, 65 (21.2%) were exposed to ACS within seven days prior to birth and 241 (78.8%) were not. Although not statistically significant, ACS-exposed infants born prior to 38+0 weeks were less likely to require respiratory support or neonatal nursery admission compared to those who were not exposed; however, exposed infants born after 37+0 weeks were more likely to require parenteral treatment for neonatal hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSION: This study did not demonstrate any statistically significant beneficial or harmful effects of ACS in neonates of women with PGDM who are born by elective CS. While it is plausible that ACS could reduce neonatal respiratory morbidity in this population, further prospective studies evaluating the benefits and harms are required before recommending this practice.

The relationship between markers of antenatal iron stores and birth outcomes differs by malaria prevention regimen-a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) has been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, maternal anaemia, and altered susceptibility to infection. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), monthly treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine plus azithromycin (SPAZ) prevented low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) through a combination of anti-malarial and non-malarial effects when compared to a single treatment with SP plus chloroquine (SPCQ) at first antenatal visit. We assessed the relationship between ID and adverse birth outcomes in women receiving SPAZ or SPCQ, and the mediating effects of malaria infection and haemoglobin levels during pregnancy. METHODS: Plasma ferritin levels measured at antenatal enrolment in a cohort of 1892 women were adjusted for concomitant inflammation using C-reactive protein and α-1-acid glycoprotein. Associations of ID (defined as ferritin <15 µg/L) or ferritin levels with birth outcomes (birthweight, LBW, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age birthweight [SGA]) were determined using linear or logistic regression analysis, as appropriate. Mediation analysis assessed the degree of mediation of ID-birth outcome relationships by malaria infection or haemoglobin levels. RESULTS: At first antenatal visit (median gestational age, 22 weeks), 1256 women (66.4%) had ID. Overall, ID or ferritin levels at first antenatal visit were not associated with birth outcomes. There was effect modification by treatment arm. Amongst SPCQ recipients, ID was associated with a 81-g higher mean birthweight (95% confidence interval [CI] 10, 152; P = 0.025), and a twofold increase in ferritin levels was associated with increased odds of SGA (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.25; 95% CI 1.06, 1.46; P = 0.007). By contrast, amongst SPAZ recipients, a twofold increase in ferritin was associated with reduced odds of LBW (aOR 0.80; 95% CI 0.67, 0.94; P = 0.009). Mediation analyses suggested that malaria infection or haemoglobin levels during pregnancy do not substantially mediate the association of ID with birth outcomes amongst SPCQ recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Improved antenatal iron stores do not confer a benefit for the prevention of adverse birth outcomes in the context of malaria chemoprevention strategies that lack the non-malarial properties of monthly SPAZ. Research to determine the mechanisms by which ID protects from suboptimal foetal growth is needed to guide the design of new malaria prevention strategies and to inform iron supplementation policy in malaria-endemic settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136850 .

Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series.

BACKGROUND: The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. METHODS: A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. RESULTS: From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided.

Evaluation of statistical methods used in the analysis of interrupted time series studies: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Interrupted time series (ITS) studies are frequently used to evaluate the effects of population-level interventions or exposures. However, examination of the performance of statistical methods for this design has received relatively little attention. METHODS: We simulated continuous data to compare the performance of a set of statistical methods under a range of scenarios which included different level and slope changes, varying lengths of series and magnitudes of lag-1 autocorrelation. We also examined the performance of the Durbin-Watson (DW) test for detecting autocorrelation. RESULTS: All methods yielded unbiased estimates of the level and slope changes over all scenarios. The magnitude of autocorrelation was underestimated by all methods, however, restricted maximum likelihood (REML) yielded the least biased estimates. Underestimation of autocorrelation led to standard errors that were too small and coverage less than the nominal 95%. All methods performed better with longer time series, except for ordinary least squares (OLS) in the presence of autocorrelation and Newey-West for high values of autocorrelation. The DW test for the presence of autocorrelation performed poorly except for long series and large autocorrelation. CONCLUSIONS: From the methods evaluated, OLS was the preferred method in series with fewer than 12 points, while in longer series, REML was preferred. The DW test should not be relied upon to detect autocorrelation, except when the series is long. Care is needed when interpreting results from all methods, given confidence intervals will generally be too narrow. Further research is required to develop better performing methods for ITS, especially for short series.

Explaining the link between adiposity and colorectal cancer risk in men and postmenopausal women in the UK Biobank: A sequential causal mediation analysis.

Mechanisms underlying adiposity-colorectal cancer (CRC) association are incompletely understood. Using UK Biobank data, we investigated the role of C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin-A1c (HbA1c) and (jointly) sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and testosterone, in explaining this association. Total effect of obesity versus normal-weight (based on waist circumference, body mass index, waist-hip ratio) on CRC risk was decomposed into natural direct (NDE) and indirect (NIE) effects using sequential mediation analysis. After a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 2070 incident CRC cases (men = 1,280; postmenopausal women = 790) were recorded. For men, the adjusted risk ratio (RR) for waist circumference (≥102 vs. ≤94 cm) was 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-1.58). The RRsNIE were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01-1.16) through all biomarkers, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.11) through pathways influenced by CRP, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97-1.01) through HbA1c beyond (the potential influence of) CRP and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.99-1.08) through SHBG and testosterone combined beyond CRP and HbA1c. The RRNDE was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.09-1.47). For women, the RR for waist circumference (≥88 vs. ≤80 cm) was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.07-1.50). The RRsNIE were 1.08 (95% CI: 0.94-1.22) through all biomarkers, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99-1.17) through CRP, 1.00 (95% CI: 0.98-1.02) through HbA1c beyond CRP and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.92-1.09) through SHBG and testosterone combined beyond CRP and HbA1c. The RRNDE was 1.18 (95% CI: 0.96-1.45). For men and women, pathways influenced by CRP explained a small proportion of the adiposity-CRC association. Testosterone and SHBG also explained a small proportion of this association in men. These results suggest that pathways marked by these obesity-related factors may not explain a large proportion of the adiposity-CRC association.

Adiposity and estrogen receptor-positive, postmenopausal breast cancer risk: Quantification of the mediating effects of fasting insulin and free estradiol.

Adiposity increases estrogen receptor (ER)-positive postmenopausal breast cancer risk. While mechanisms underlying this relationship are uncertain, dysregulated sex-steroid hormone production and insulin signaling are likely pathways. Our aim was to quantify mediating effects of fasting insulin and free estradiol in the adiposity and ER-positive postmenopausal breast cancer association. We used data from a case-cohort study of sex hormones and insulin signaling nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Eligible women, at baseline, were not diagnosed with cancer, were postmenopausal, did not use hormone therapy and had no history of diabetes or diabetes medication use. Women with ER-negative disease or breast cancer diagnosis within the first follow-up year were excluded. We analyzed the study as a cumulative sampling case-control study with 149 cases and 1,029 controls. Missing values for insulin and free estradiol were multiply imputed with chained equations. Interventional direct (IDE) and indirect (IIE) effects were estimated using regression-based multiple-mediator approach. For women with body mass index (BMI) >30 kg/m2 compared to women with BMI 18.5-25 kg/m2 , the risk ratio (RR) of breast cancer was 1.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.91). The estimated IDE (RR) not through the mediators was 1.03 (95% CI 0.43-2.48). Percentage mediated effect through free estradiol was 72% (IIE-RR 1.56; 95% CI 1.11-2.19). There was no evidence for an indirect effect through insulin (IIE-RR 1.12; 95% CI 0.68-1.84; 28% mediated). Our results suggest that circulating free estradiol plays an important mediating role in the adiposity-breast cancer relationship but does not explain all of the association.

Correction to: A comparison of methods to estimate the survivor average causal effect in the presence of missing data: a simulation study.

In the original publication of this article [1], the incorrect causal diagram was submitted as Fig. 1.

The cumulative effect of living with disability on mental health in working-age adults: an analysis using marginal structural models.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have shown that acquiring a disability is associated with a reduction in mental health, but they have not considered the cumulative impact of having a disability on mental health. We used acquisition of a non-psychological disability to estimate the association of each additional year lived with disability on mental health (measured using the Mental Component Summary score of the Short Form Health Survey). METHODS: We used the first 13 waves of data (years 2001-2013) from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The sample included 4113 working-age (18-65 years) adults who were disability-free at waves 1 and 2. We fitted marginal structural models with inverse probability weights to estimate the association of each additional year of living with disability on mental health, employing multiple imputation to handle the missing data. RESULTS: Of the 4113 participants, 7.7 percent acquired a disability. On average, each additional year lived with disability was associated with a decrease in the mean Mental Component Summary score (ß = - 0.42; 95% CI - 0.71, - 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that each additional year lived with non-psychological disability is associated with a decline in mental health among working-age Australians.

Performance of the Access Bio/CareStart rapid diagnostic test for the detection of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the risk of drug-induced haemolysis, all patients should be tested for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency (G6PDd) prior to prescribing primaquine (PQ)-based radical cure for the treatment of vivax malaria. This systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis assessed the utility of a qualitative lateral flow assay from Access Bio/CareStart (Somerset, NJ) (CareStart Screening test for G6PD deficiency) for the diagnosis of G6PDd compared to the gold standard spectrophotometry (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews [PROSPERO]: CRD42019110994). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Articles published on PubMed between 1 January 2011 and 27 September 2019 were screened. Articles reporting performance of the standard CSG from venous or capillary blood samples collected prospectively and considering spectrophotometry as gold standard (using kits from Trinity Biotech PLC, Wicklow, Ireland) were included. Authors of articles fulfilling the inclusion criteria were contacted to contribute anonymized individual data. Minimal data requested were sex of the participant, CSG result, spectrophotometry result in U/gHb, and haemoglobin (Hb) reading. The adjusted male median (AMM) was calculated per site and defined as 100% G6PD activity. G6PDd was defined as an enzyme activity of less than 30%. Pooled estimates for sensitivity and specificity, unconditional negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were calculated comparing CSG results to spectrophotometry using a random-effects bivariate model. Of 11 eligible published articles, individual data were available from 8 studies, 6 from Southeast Asia, 1 from Africa, and 1 from the Americas. A total of 5,815 individual participant data (IPD) were available, of which 5,777 results (99.3%) were considered for analysis, including data from 3,095 (53.6%) females. Overall, the CSG had a pooled sensitivity of 0.96 (95% CI 0.90-0.99) and a specificity of 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.96). When the prevalence of G6PDd was varied from 5% to 30%, the unconditional NPV was 0.99 (95% CI 0.94-1.00), with an LR+ and an LR- of 18.23 (95% CI 13.04-25.48) and 0.05 (95% CI 0.02-0.12), respectively. Performance was significantly better in males compared to females (p = 0.027) but did not differ significantly between samples collected from capillary or venous blood (p = 0.547). Limitations of the study include the lack of wide geographical representation of the included data and that the CSG results were generated under research conditions, and therefore may not reflect performance in routine settings. CONCLUSIONS: The CSG performed well at the 30% threshold. Its high NPV suggests that the test is suitable to guide PQ treatment, and the high LR+ and low LR- render the test suitable to confirm and exclude G6PDd. Further operational studies are needed to confirm the utility of the test in remote endemic settings.