Prediction and interpretation of antibiotic-resistance genes occurrence at recreational beaches using machine learning models.

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are pollutants of worldwide concern that seriously threaten public health and ecosystems. Machine learning (ML) prediction models have been applied to predict ARGs in beach waters. However, the existing studies were conducted at a single location and had low prediction performance. Moreover, ML models are "black boxes" that do not reveal their predictions' internal nuances and mechanisms. This lack of transparency and trust can result in serious consequences when using these models in high-stakes decisions. In this study, we developed a gradient boosted regression tree based (GBRT) ML model and then described its behavior using six explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model-agnostic explanation methods. We used hydro-meteorological and qPCR data from the beaches in South Korea and Pakistan and developed ML prediction models for aac (6'-lb-cr), sul1, and tetX with 10-fold time-blocked cross-validation performances of 4.9, 2.06 and 4.4 root mean squared logarithmic error, respectively. We then analyzed the local and global behavior of the developed ML model using four interpretation methods. The developed ML models showed that water temperature, precipitation and tide are the most important predictors for prediction of ARGs at recreational beaches. We show that the model-agnostic interpretation methods not only explain the behavior of the ML model but also provide insights into the behavior of the ML model under new unseen conditions. Moreover, these post-processing techniques can be a debugging tool for ML-based modeling.

Comprehensive update on the monkeypox outbreak.

Monkeypox (MPX) was first reported in 1970 in humans and outbreaks were restricted and highly localised to endemic regions of western and central Africa. However, after the first reported case in the UK in early May, 2022, the pattern of epidemic spreading in the geographical regions was much larger compared to past, posing a risk MPX might become entrenched beyond endemic areas. This virus is less transmissible than SARS-CoV-2, as it transmitted mainly through personal, close, often skin-to-skin contact with infectious MPX rash, body fluids, or scabs from an individual with MPX. Infections usually present with chills, fever, fatigue, muscle aches, headache, sore throat, skin lesions, and lymphadenopathy. Currently, there are no antivirals approved for MPX. However, an antiviral drug called "tecovirimat," approved for the treatment of smallpox, has been made accessible to treat MPX. Moreover, to prevent MPX, there are two vaccines available which are approved by FDA: Bavarian Nordic JYNNEOS, and ACAM2000 vaccine. Contact tracing is absent in case of MPX outbreak and there is lack of information from the data systems in rapid manner. Additionally, test capacity needs to be increased. Like SARS-CoV-2, global MPX outbreak demand for vaccines far exceeds availability.