Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community: HEFESTOS score.

AIMS: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5-20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one. CONCLUSIONS: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.

Nine Forward-Backward Translations of the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 With Cultural Checks.

Introduction: The Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 (HSCL-25) is an effective, reliable, and ergonomic tool that can be used for depression diagnosis and monitoring in daily practice. To allow its broad use by family practice physicians (FPs), it was translated from English into nine European languages (Greek, Polish, Bulgarian, Croatian, Catalan, Galician, Spanish, Italian, and French) and the translation homogeneity was confirmed. This study describes this process. Methods: First, two translators (an academic translator and an FP researcher) were recruited for the forward translation (FT). A panel of English-speaking FPs that included at least 15 experts (researchers, teachers, and practitioners) was organized in each country to finalize the FT using a Delphi procedure. Results: One or two Delphi procedure rounds were sufficient for each translation. Then, a different translator, who did not know the original version of the HSCL-25, performed a backward translation in English. An expert panel of linguists compared the two English versions. Differences were listed and a multicultural consensus group determined whether they were due to linguistic problems or to cultural differences. All versions underwent cultural check. Conclusion: All nine translations were finalized without altering the original meaning.