The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Proportional contributions to organic chemical mixture effects in groundwater and surface water.

Semi-quantitative GC-MS and LC-MS measurements of organic chemicals in groundwater and surface waters were used to assess the overall magnitude and contribution of the most important substances to calculated mixture hazard. Here we use GC-MS and LC-MS measurements taken from two separate national monitoring programs for groundwater and surface water in England, in combination with chronic species sensitivity distribution (SSD) HC50 values published by Posthuma et al. (2019, Environ. Toxicol. Chem, 38, 905-917) to calculate individual substance hazard quotients and mixture effects using a concentration addition approach. The mixture analysis indicated that, as anticipated, there was an increased hazard from the presence of a cocktail of substances at sites compared to the hazard for any single chemical. The magnitude of the difference between the hazard attributed to the most important chemical and the overall mixture effect, however, was not large. Thus, the most toxic chemical contributed ≥ 20% of the calculated mixture effect in >99% of all measured groundwater and surface water samples. On the basis of this analysis, a 5 fold assessment factor placed on the risk identified for any single chemical would offer a high degree of in cases where implementation of a full mixture analysis was not possible. This finding is consistent with previous work that has assessed chemical mixture effects within field monitoring programs and as such provides essential underpinning for future policy and management decisions on how to effectively and proportionately manage mixture risks.

Worst-case ranking of organic chemicals detected in groundwaters and surface waters in England.

The Environment Agency has been using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) and Accurate-mass Quadrupole Time-of-Flight (Q-TOF) / Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS) target screen analysis to semi-quantitatively measure organic substances in groundwater and surface water since 2009 for GC-MS and 2014 for LC-MS. Here we use this data to generate a worst-case "risk" ranking of the detected substances. Three sets of hazard values relating to effects on aquatic organisms, namely Water Framework Directive EQSs, NORMAN Network PNECs (hereafter NORMAN PNEC) and chronic Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) HC50s from Posthuma et al., (2019) were used for the assessment. These hazard values were compared to the highest measured concentration for each chemical to generate a worst-case hazard quotient (HQ). Calculated HQs for each metric were ranked, averaged and multiplied by rank for detection frequency to generate an overall ordering based on HQ and occurrence. This worst-case approach was then used to generate ranking lists for GC-MS and LC-MS detected substances in groundwater and surface water. Pesticides in the top 30 overall ranked list included more legacy pesticides in groundwater and more current use actives in surface water. Specific uses were linked to some high rankings (e.g. rotenone for invasive species control). A number of industrial and plastics associated chemicals were ranked highly in the groundwater dataset, while more personal care products and pharmaceuticals were highly ranked in surface waters. Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) compounds were commonly highly ranked in both environmental compartments. The approach confirmed high rankings for some substance (e.g. selected pesticides) from previous prioritization exercises, but also identified novel substance for consideration (e.g. some PFAS compounds and pharmaceuticals). Overall our approach provided a simple approach using readily accessible data to identify substances for further and more detailed assessment.