Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem.

The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO2 ) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.

High PCO2 does not alter the thermal plasticity of developing Pacific herring embryos during a marine heatwave.

Forage fish tend to respond strongly to environmental variability and therefore may be particularly sensitive to marine climate stressors. We used controlled laboratory experiments to assess the vulnerability of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) embryos to the combined effects of high partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) and a simulated marine heatwave. The two PCO2 treatments reflected current conditions (∼550 µatm) and a future extreme level (∼2300 µatm). The dynamics of the heatwave (i.e. rate of onset: ∼0.85°C day-1; maximum intensity: +4.4°C) were modeled from the most extreme events detected by a long-term regional temperature dataset. Simultaneous exposure to these potential stressors did not affect embryo survival. However, the heatwave did elicit significant metabolic effects that included higher rates of routine metabolism (Q10=1.15-1.72), growth (Q10=1.87), rate of development to hatch (Q10=3.01) and yolk consumption (Q10=3.21), as well as a significant reduction in production efficiency (-10.8%) and a three-fold increase in the rate of developmental anomalies. By contrast, high PCO2 conditions produced comparatively small effects on vital rates, including a significant increase in time to hatch (+0.88 days) and a reduction in routine metabolic rate (-6.3%) under the ambient temperature regime only. We found no evidence that high PCO2 increased routine metabolic rate at either temperature. These results indicate that Pacific herring embryos possess sufficient physiological plasticity to cope with extreme seawater acidification under optimal and heatwave temperature conditions, although lingering metabolic inefficiencies induced by the heatwave may lead to important carryover effects in later life stages.

Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory.

Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human-induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population- and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer-resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification'and the ecological changes it portends.

Narratives can motivate environmental action: the Whiskey Creek ocean acidification story.

Even when environmental data quantify the risks and benefits of delayed responses to rapid anthropogenic change, institutions rarely respond promptly. We propose that narratives complementing environmental datasets can motivate responsive environmental policy. To explore this idea, we relate a case study in which a narrative of economic loss due to regionally rapid ocean acidification-an anthropogenic change-helped connect knowledge with action. We pose three hypotheses to explain why narratives might be particularly effective in linking science to environmental policy, drawing from the literature of economics, environmental policy, and cognitive psychology. It seems that yet-untold narratives may hold similar potential for strengthening the feedback between environmental data and policy and motivating regional responses to other environmental problems.

Environmental DNA reveals patterns of biological invasion in an inland sea.

Non-native species have the potential to cause ecological and economic harm to coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Understanding which habitat types are most vulnerable to biological invasions, where invasions originate, and the vectors by which they arrive can help direct limited resources to prevent or mitigate ecological and socio-economic harm. Information about the occurrence of non-native species can help guide interventions at all stages of invasion, from first introduction, to naturalization and invasion. However, monitoring at relevant scales requires considerable investment of time, resources, and taxonomic expertise. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding methods sample coastal ecosystems at broad spatial and temporal scales to augment established monitoring methods. We use COI mtDNA eDNA sampling to survey a diverse assemblage of species across distinct habitats in the Salish Sea in Washington State, USA, and classify each as non-native, native, or indeterminate in origin. The non-native species detected include both well-documented invaders and species not previously reported within the Salish Sea. We find a non-native assemblage dominated by shellfish and algae with native ranges in the temperate western Pacific, and find more-retentive estuarine habitats to be invaded at far higher levels than better-flushed rocky shores. Furthermore, we find an increase in invasion level with higher water temperatures in spring and summer across habitat types. This analysis contributes to a growing understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence invasion level, and underscores the utility of eDNA surveys to monitor biological invasions and to better understand the factors that drive these invasions.

Large and transient positive temperature anomalies in Washington's coastal nearshore waters during the 2013-2015 northeast Pacific marine heatwave.

The northern portion of Washington's outer coast-known locally as the Olympic coast-is a dynamic region characterized by seasonal upwelling that predominates during summer interrupted by occasional periods of downwelling. We examined spring-to-fall water temperature records collected along this coast from 2001-2015 from April to October at four nearshore locations (Cape Elizabeth to Makah Bay) that span one degree of latitude and are located within 15 km of the shore. When compared against a long-term climatology created for 2001-2013, seven-day smoothed temperature anomalies of up to 4.5°C at 40 m depth during 2014 and 2015 show short-term warm events lasting 10-20 days. These periods of warming occurred within the well documented marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific and were about twice the seasonal temperature range in the climatology at that depth. These warm events were strongly correlated with periods of northward long-shore winds and upper ocean currents, consistent with what is expected for the response to downwelling-favorable winds. While our focus a priori was on 2014 and 2015, we also found large positive temperature events in 2013, which were potentially related to the early stage of the marine heatwave, and in 2011, which did not have a documented marine heatwave. This indicates that near-shore short-term warm events occur during periods of large-scale offshore marine heatwave events, but also can occur in the absence of a large-scale marine heatwave event when downwelling-favorable winds occur during the summer/early fall.

Spatial pattern analysis of cruise ship-humpback whale interactions in and near Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska.

Understanding interactions between large ships and large whales is important to estimate risks posed to whales by ships. The coastal waters of Alaska are a summer feeding area for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as well as a prominent destination for large cruise ships. Lethal collisions between cruise ships and humpback whales have occurred throughout Alaska, including in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP). Although the National Park Service (NPS) establishes quotas and operating requirements for cruise ships within GBNP in part to minimize ship-whale collisions, no study has quantified ship-whale interactions in the park or in state waters where ship traffic is unregulated. In 2008 and 2009, an observer was placed on ships during 49 different cruises that included entry into GBNP to record distance and bearing of whales that surfaced within 1 km of the ship's bow. A relative coordinate system was developed in ArcGIS to model the frequency of whale surface events using kernel density. A total of 514 whale surface events were recorded. Although ship-whale interactions were common within GBNP, whales frequently surfaced in front of the bow in waters immediately adjacent to the park (west Icy Strait) where cruise ship traffic is not regulated by the NPS. When ships transited at speeds >13 knots, whales frequently surfaced closer to the ship's midline and ship's bow in contrast to speeds slower than 13 knots. Our findings confirm that ship speed is an effective mitigation measure for protecting whales and should be applied to other areas where ship-whale interactions are common.

Severe biological effects under present-day estuarine acidification in the seasonally variable Salish Sea.

Estuaries are recognized as one of the habitats most vulnerable to coastal ocean acidification due to seasonal extremes and prolonged duration of acidified conditions. This is combined with co-occurring environmental stressors such as increased temperature and low dissolved oxygen. Despite this, evidence of biological impacts of ocean acidification in estuarine habitats is largely lacking. By combining physical, biogeochemical, and biological time-series observations over relevant seasonal-to-interannual time scales, this study is the first to describe both the spatial and temporal variation of biological response in the pteropod Limacina helicina to estuarine acidification in association with other stressors. Using clustering and principal component analyses, sampling sites were grouped according to their distribution of physical and biogeochemical variables over space and time. This identified the most exposed habitats and time intervals corresponding to the most severe negative biological impacts across three seasons and three years. We developed a cumulative stress index as a means of integrating spatial-temporal OA variation over the organismal life history. Our findings show that over the 2014-2016 study period, the severity of low aragonite saturation state combined with the duration of exposure contributed to overall cumulative stress and resulted in severe shell dissolution. Seasonally-variable estuaries such as the Salish Sea (Washington, U.S.A.) predispose sensitive organisms to more severe acidified conditions than those of coastal and open-ocean habitats, yet the sensitive organisms persist. We suggest potential environmental factors and compensatory mechanisms that allow pelagic calcifiers to inhabit less favorable habitats and partially offset associated stressors, for instance through food supply, increased temperature, and adaptation of their life history. The novel metric of cumulative stress developed here can be applied to other estuarine environments with similar physical and chemical dynamics, providing a new tool for monitoring biological response in estuaries under pressure from accelerating global change.

Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event.

The human dimensions of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming increasingly apparent as they grow in frequency and magnitude in some regions of the world under changing ocean conditions. One such region is the U.S. West Coast, where HABs of toxigenic species of Pseudo-nitzschia have been found to coincide with or closely follow periods of warming. In 2015, the region experienced a massive HAB of Pseudo-nitzschia that was associated with the 2014-16 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave. The HAB event delayed the opening of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab fishery for up to 5 months and closed the popular recreational razor clam fishery, resulting in fishery failures and disaster declarations and causing significant sociocultural and economic impacts to coastal communities. Here, management actions are examined that were taken by federal and state government agencies and responses of coastal residents to this extreme HAB event using a disaster risk management framework consisting of four phases: 1) prediction and early warning, 2) event response, 3) recovery and reconstruction, and 4) mitigation and prevention. Clear differences in management actions at the state level were evident in California, Oregon, and Washington during every phase, producing vastly different perceptions of management by coastal residents. A history of trusted relationships and coordination among agencies and with the fishing industry in Washington State was associated with more transparent and accepted management responses. The examination found that additional education, outreach, and trust-building exercises would provide benefits to communities affected by extreme HAB events. Our findings contribute to an understanding of climate change adaptation in coastal communities dependent on fishery resources.

Harmful algal blooms and coastal communities: Socioeconomic impacts and actions taken to cope with the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event.

The 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event was caused by a massive harmful algal bloom (HAB) that consisted mostly of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis. It was unprecedented in its toxicity and geographic extent and resulted in extended and widespread closures of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab and popular recreational razor clam fisheries. The fishery closures led to federal fisheries disaster declarations and generated an economic shock for coastal communities that depend on access to these marine resources. This study reports on the socioeconomic impacts of the 2015 HAB across 16 fishing communities on the U.S. West Coast using primary survey data. The survey instrument, deployed in the summer of 2017, collected information on sociodemographic and economic factors hypothesized to confer resilience or vulnerability to HABs, data quantifying individual impacts, and the coping and adaptive actions taken by individuals to deal with the event. The vast majority of survey participants (84%) were negatively impacted by the 2015 HAB, but individuals employed in fishing-related occupations experienced greater financial, emotional, and sociocultural impacts than those employed in other sectors. Further, those employed in fishing-related occupations were less likely to recover financial losses suffered as a result of the event. This study identifies the pathways through which HABs affect fishery-dependent and fishery-associated sectors of U.S. West Coast communities. The understanding gained can help inform efforts to prepare for future HABs, mitigate their socioeconomic impacts, and aid recovery.

Obstacles to bottom-up implementation of marine ecosystem management.

Ecosystem management (EM) offers a means to address multiple threats to marine resources. Despite recognition of the importance of stakeholder involvement, most efforts to implement EM in marine systems are the product of top-down regulatory control. We describe a rare, stakeholder-driven attempt to implement EM from the bottom up in San Juan County, Washington (U.S.A.). A citizens advisory group led a 2-year, highly participatory effort to develop an ecosystem-based management plan, guided by a preexisting conservation-planning framework. A key innovation was to incorporate social dimensions by designating both sociocultural and biodiversity targets in the planning process. Multiple obstacles hindered implementation of EM in this setting. Despite using a surrogate scheme, the information-related transaction costs of planning were substantial: information deficits prevented assessment of some biodiversity targets and insufficient resources combined with information deficits prevented scientific assessment of the sociocultural targets. Substantial uncertainty, practical constraints to stakeholder involvement, and the existence of multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives increased negotiation-related costs. Although information deficits and uncertainty, coupled with underinvestment in the transaction costs of planning, could reduce the long-term effectiveness of the plan itself, the social capital and momentum developed through the planning process could yield unforeseeable future gains in protection of marine resources. The obstacles we identified here will require early and sustained attention in efforts to implement ecosystem management in other grassroots settings.

Economic and sociocultural impacts of fisheries closures in two fishing-dependent communities following the massive 2015 U.S. West Coast harmful algal bloom.

In the spring of 2015, a massive harmful algal bloom (HAB) of the toxin-producing diatom Pseudo-nitzschia occurred on the U.S. West Coast, resulting in the largest recorded outbreak of the toxin domoic acid and causing fisheries closures. Closures extended into 2016 and generated an economic shock for coastal fishing communities. This study examines the economic and sociocultural impacts of the Dungeness crab and razor clam fisheries closures on two fishing-dependent communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 community members from two communities impacted by the event - Crescent City, California and Long Beach, Washington. Interviewees included those involved in the fishing, hospitality, and retail industries, local government officials, recreational harvesters, and others. Interviews probed aspects of resilience in economic, social, institutional, and physical domains, based on the contention that community resilience will influence the communities' ability to withstand HAB events. Dimensions of vulnerability were also explored, encompassing sensitivity of the communities to HAB events and their adaptive capacity. Common themes that emerged from the interview responses indicate that economic hardships extended beyond fishing-related operations and permeated through other sectors, particularly the hospitality industry. Significant barriers to accessing financial and employment assistance during extended fisheries closures were identified, particularly for fishers. Long-held traditions surrounding crab and shellfish harvest and consumption were disrupted, threatening the cultural identities of the affected communities. Community members expressed a desire for clearer, more thorough, and more rapid dissemination of information regarding the management of fisheries closures and the health risks associated with HAB toxins. The likelihood of intensifying HABs under climate change heightens the need for actions to increase the resilience of fishing communities to the economic and sociocultural impacts caused by HAB-related fisheries closures.

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate.

Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.

Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.

An evaluation of the influence of natural science in regional-scale restoration projects.

Regional-scale restoration is a tool of growing importance in environmental management, and the number, scope, and complexity of restoration programs is increasing. Although the importance of natural science to the success of such projects generally is recognized, the actual use of natural science in these programs rarely has been evaluated. We used techniques of program evaluation to examine the use of natural science in six American and three Western European regional-scale restoration programs. Our results suggest that ensuring the technical rigor and directed application of the science is important to program development and delivery. However, the influence of science may be constrained if strategies for its integration into the broader program are lacking. Consequently, the influence of natural science in restoration programs is greatest when formal mechanisms exist for incorporating science into programs, for example, via a framework for integration of science and policy. Our evaluation proposes a model that can be used to enhance the influence of natural science in regional-scale restoration programs in the United States and elsewhere.