Spatial-temporal trends in the risk of illicit drug toxicity death in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug poisoning (overdose) continues to be an important public health problem with overdose-related deaths currently recorded at an unprecedented level. Understanding the geographic variations in fatal overdose mortality is necessary to avoid disproportionate risk resulting from service access inequity. METHODS: We estimated the odds of fatal overdose per event from all cases captured by the overdose surveillance system in British Columbia (2015 - 2018), using both conventional logistic regression and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results of GAM were mapped to identify spatial-temporal trends in the risk of fatal overdose. RESULTS: We found that the odds of fatal overdose were about 30% higher in rural areas than in large urban centers, with some regions reporting odds 50% higher than others. Temporal variations in fatal overdose revealed an increasing trend over the entire province. However, the increase occurred earlier and faster in the Interior and Northern regions. CONCLUSION: Rural areas were disproportionately affected by fatal overdose; lack of access to harm reduction services may partly explain the elevated risk in these areas.

Climate Classification System-Based Determination of Temperate Climate Detection of Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato.

We compared 2 climate classification systems describing georeferenced environmental Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato isolations occurring during 1989-2016. Each system suggests the fungus was isolated in temperate climates before the 1999 outbreak on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. However, the Köppen-Geiger system is more precise and should be used to define climates where pathogens are detected.

Searching for clues for eighteen years: Deciphering the ecological determinants of Cryptococcus gattii on Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

Cryptococcus gattii emerged on Vancouver Island in 1999 for unknown reasons, causing human and animal fatalities and illness. The apparent emergence of this fungus in another temperate area, this time in the Pacific Northwest, suggests the fungus may have expanded its ecological niche. Yet studies that directly examine the potential roles of climatic and land use changes on C. gattii are still lacking. We aim to summarize the existing global literature on the ecology of C. gattii, with particular focus on the gap in knowledge surrounding the potential effects of climatic and land use changes. We systematically reviewed English peer-reviewed literature on the ecological determinants of C. gattii. We included studies published from January 1970 through June 2016 and identified 56 relevant studies for our review. We identified environmental isolations of C. gattii from 18 countries, spanning 72 separate regions across six continents. Fifty-three tree species were associated with C. gattii, spanning 10 climate classifications and 36 terrestrial ecoregions. No studies directly tested the potential effects of climatic changes (including climatic oscillations and global climate change) on C. gattii, while only one study directly assessed those of land use change. To improve model predictions of current and future distributions of C. gattii, more focus is needed on the potential effects of climatic and land use changes to help decrease the public health risk. The apparent emergence of C. gattii in British Columbia is also an opportunity to explore the factors behind emerging infectious diseases in Canada and elsewhere.

Novel opportunities for wildlife conservation and research with real-time monitoring.

The expansion of global communication networks and advances in animal-tracking technology make possible the real-time telemetry of positional data as recorded by animal-attached tracking units. When combined with continuous, algorithm-based analytical capability, unique opportunities emerge for applied ecological monitoring and wildlife conservation. We present here four broad approaches for algorithmic wildlife monitoring in real time--proximity, geofencing, movement rate, and immobility--designed to examine aspects of wildlife spatial activity and behavior not possible with conventional tracking systems. Application of these four routines to the real-time monitoring of 94 African elephants was made. We also provide details of our cloud-based monitoring system including infrastructure, data collection, and customized software for continuous tracking data analysis. We also highlight future directions of real-time collection and analysis of biological, physiological, and environmental information from wildlife to encourage further development of needed algorithms and monitoring technology. Real-time processing of remotely collected, animal biospatial data promises to open novel directions in ecological research, applied species monitoring, conservation programs, and public outreach and education.

Spatial cluster mapping and environmental modeling in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND: Geographical (geospatial) clusters have been observed in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) incidence and linked to environmental determinants of disease, but pediatric spatial patterns in North America are unknown. We hypothesized that we would identify geospatial clusters in the pediatric IBD (PIBD) population of British Columbia (BC), Canada and associate incidence with ethnicity and environmental exposures. AIM: To identify PIBD clusters and model how spatial patterns are associated with population ethnicity and environmental exposures. METHODS: One thousand one hundred eighty-three patients were included from a BC Children's Hospital clinical registry who met the criteria of diagnosis with IBD ≤ age 16.9 from 2001-2016 with a valid postal code on file. A spatial cluster detection routine was used to identify areas with similar incidence. An ecological analysis employed Poisson rate models of IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) cases as functions of areal population ethnicity, rurality, average family size and income, average population exposure to green space, air pollution, and vitamin-D weighted ultraviolet light from the Canadian Environmental Health Research Consortium, and pesticide applications. RESULTS: Hot spots (high incidence) were identified in Metro Vancouver (IBD, CD, UC), southern Okanagan regions (IBD, CD), and Vancouver Island (CD). Cold spots (low incidence) were identified in Southeastern BC (IBD, CD, UC), Northern BC (IBD, CD), and on BC's coast (UC). No high incidence hot spots were detected in the densest urban areas. Modeling results were represented as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95%CI. Novel risk factors for PIBD included fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution (IRR = 1.294, CI = 1.113-1.507, P < 0.001) and agricultural application of petroleum oil to orchards and grapes (IRR = 1.135, CI = 1.007-1.270, P = 0.033). South Asian population (IRR = 1.020, CI = 1.011-1.028, P < 0.001) was a risk factor and Indigenous population (IRR = 0.956, CI = 0.941-0.971, P < 0.001), family size (IRR = 0.467, CI = 0.268-0.816, P = 0.007), and summer ultraviolet (IBD = 0.9993, CI = 0.9990-0.9996, P < 0.001) were protective factors as previously established. Novel risk factors for CD, as for PIBD, included: PM2.5 air pollution (IRR = 1.230, CI = 1 .056-1.435, P = 0.008) and agricultural petroleum oil (IRR = 1.159, CI = 1.002-1.326, P = 0.038). Indigenous population (IRR = 0.923, CI = 0.895-0.951, P < 0.001), as previously established, was a protective factor. For UC, rural population (UC IRR = 0.990, CI = 0.983-0.996, P = 0.004) was a protective factor and South Asian population (IRR = 1.054, CI = 1.030-1.079, P < 0.001) a risk factor as previously established. CONCLUSION: PIBD spatial clusters were identified and associated with known and novel environmental determinants. The identification of agricultural pesticides and PM2.5 air pollution needs further study to validate these observations.

Human footprint and protected areas shape elephant range across Africa.

Over the last two millennia, and at an accelerating pace, the African elephant (Loxodonta spp. Lin.) has been threatened by human activities across its range.1-7 We investigate the correlates of elephant home range sizes across diverse biomes. Annual and 16-day elliptical time density home ranges8 were calculated by using GPS tracking data collected from 229 African savannah and forest elephants (L. africana and L. cyclotis, respectively) between 1998 and 2013 at 19 sites representing bushveld, savannah, Sahel, and forest biomes. Our analysis considered the relationship between home range area and sex, species, vegetation productivity, tree cover, surface temperature, rainfall, water, slope, aggregate human influence, and protected area use. Irrespective of these environmental conditions, long-term annual ranges were overwhelmingly affected by human influence and protected area use. Only over shorter, 16-day periods did environmental factors, particularly water availability and vegetation productivity, become important in explaining space use. Our work highlights the degree to which the human footprint and existing protected areas now constrain the distribution of the world's largest terrestrial mammal.9,10 A habitat suitability model, created by evaluating every square kilometer of Africa, predicts that 18,169,219 km2 would be suitable as elephant habitat-62% of the continent. The current elephant distribution covers just 17% of this potential range of which 57.4% falls outside protected areas. To stem the continued extirpation and to secure the elephants' future, effective and expanded protected areas and improved capacity for coexistence across unprotected range are essential.

Do neighbourhoods in Vancouver and surrounding areas demonstrate different rates of bystander CPR and survival for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest?

OBJECTIVE: No prior work exists examining the relation between the geographic distribution of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the city of Vancouver and surrounding areas that may exhibit a clustering of cases. The primary objective of this study was to describe the distribution of OHCA within the Vancouver Coastal Health region using a geographic information system (GIS) analysis and appropriate statistical analyses. METHODS: This study was a post-hoc GIS-based analysis of OHCA patients in the city of Vancouver and surrounding areas, using data collected by the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium between September 2007 and December 2011. The kernel density techniques and regression tree analysis using binary recursive partitioning were used. RESULTS: We examined 1617 cases of OHCA with a mortality rate of 86.5% (95% CI 84.8-88.2). The mean age of OHCA cases was 66.6 years (95% CI 65.7-67.5), and 33.6% (95% CI 31.3-35.9) were female. The proportion with an initial shockable rhythm (VF or pulseless VT) was 22.2% (95% CI 20.2-24.2); 42.3% (95% CI 39.9-44.7) of all cases received bystander CPR, and 49.7% (95% CI 47.3-52.1) were transported to the hospital by paramedics. The rate of survival to hospital discharge with favourable neurological status (FNS) Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) 1 or 2 was 10.4% (8.9-11.9). Distance of transport to the hospital (less than 2.7 km) was a significant predictor of survival with FNS, but income did not predict survival with FNS. Areas with higher proportions of commuters by car demonstrated lower rates of survival with FNS. CONCLUSION: This is the first GIS-based study to examine OHCA in a single large Canadian centre. Clustering of OHCA consistent with areas of high population density was observed. Distance of transport was a significant predictor of survival with FNS for patients with OHCA. This may have important implications for future emergency medical services deployment and dispatch decision-making, and public policy initiatives.

Predicting outbreaks: a spatial risk assessment of West Nile virus in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNv) has recently emerged as a health threat to the North American population. After the initial disease outbreak in New York City in 1999, WNv has spread widely and quickly across North America to every contiguous American state and Canadian province, with the exceptions of British Columbia (BC), Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. In this study we develop models of mosquito population dynamics for Culex tarsalis and C. pipiens, and create a spatial risk assessment of WNv prior to its arrival in BC by creating a raster-based mosquito abundance model using basic geographic and temperature data. Among the parameters included in the model are spatial factors determined from the locations of BC Centre for Disease Control mosquito traps (e.g., distance of the trap from the closest wetland or lake), while other parameters were obtained from the literature. Factors not considered in the current assessment but which could influence the results are also discussed. RESULTS: Since the model performs much better for C. tarsalis than for C. pipiens, the risk assessment is carried out using the output of C. tarsalis model. The result of the spatially-explicit mosquito abundance model indicates that the Okanagan Valley, the Thompson Region, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and southeastern Vancouver Island have the highest potential abundance of the mosquitoes. After including human population data, Greater Vancouver, due to its high population density, increases in significance relative to the other areas. CONCLUSION: Creating a raster-based mosquito abundance map enabled us to quantitatively evaluate WNv risk throughout BC and to identify the areas of greatest potential risk, prior to WNv introduction. In producing the map important gaps in our knowledge related to mosquito ecology in BC were identified, as well, it became evident that increased efforts in bird and mosquito surveillance are required if more accurate models and maps are to be produced. Access to real time climatic data is the key for developing a real time early warning system for forecasting vector borne disease outbreaks, while including social factors is important when producing a detailed assessment in urban areas.

Ecosystem services in conservation planning: targeted benefits vs. co-benefits or costs?

There is growing support for characterizing ecosystem services in order to link conservation and human well-being. However, few studies have explicitly included ecosystem services within systematic conservation planning, and those that have follow two fundamentally different approaches: ecosystem services as intrinsically-important targeted benefits vs. substitutable co-benefits. We present a first comparison of these two approaches in a case study in the Central Interior of British Columbia. We calculated and mapped economic values for carbon storage, timber production, and recreational angling using a geographical information system (GIS). These 'marginal' values represent the difference in service-provision between conservation and managed forestry as land uses. We compared two approaches to including ecosystem services in the site-selection software Marxan: as Targeted Benefits, and as Co-Benefits/Costs (in Marxan's cost function); we also compared these approaches with a Hybrid approach (carbon and angling as targeted benefits, timber as an opportunity cost). For this analysis, the Co-Benefit/Cost approach yielded a less costly reserve network than the Hybrid approach (1.6% cheaper). Including timber harvest as an opportunity cost in the cost function resulted in a reserve network that achieved targets equivalently, but at 15% lower total cost. We found counter-intuitive results for conservation: conservation-compatible services (carbon, angling) were positively correlated with each other and biodiversity, whereas the conservation-incompatible service (timber) was negatively correlated with all other networks. Our findings suggest that including ecosystem services within a conservation plan may be most cost-effective when they are represented as substitutable co-benefits/costs, rather than as targeted benefits. By explicitly valuing the costs and benefits associated with services, we may be able to achieve meaningful biodiversity conservation at lower cost and with greater co-benefits.

Resource wars and conflict ivory: the impact of civil conflict on elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo--the case of the Okapi Reserve.

Human conflict generally has substantial negative impacts on wildlife and conservation. The recent civil war (1995-2006) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in a significant loss of wildlife, including elephants, due to institutional collapse, lawlessness and unbridled exploitation of natural resources such as minerals, wood, ivory and bushmeat. We used data from distance sampling surveys conducted before and after the war in a protected forest, the Okapi Faunal Reserve, to document changes in elephant abundance and distribution. We employed Generalized Additive Models to relate changes in elephant distribution to human and environmental factors. Populations declined by nearly fifty percent coinciding with a major increase in elephant poaching as indicated by reports of ivory trade during the war. Our results suggest that humans influenced elephant distribution far more than habitat, both before and after the war, but post-war models explained more of the variation. Elephant abundance declined more, closer to the park boundary and to areas of intense human activity. After the war, elephant densities were relatively higher in the centre of the park where they were better protected, suggesting that this area may have acted as a refuge. In other sites in Eastern DRC, where no protection was provided, elephants were even more decimated. Post-war dynamics, such as weakened institutions, human movements and availability of weapons, continue to affect elephants. Survival of remaining populations and recovery will be determined by these persistent factors and by new threats associated with growing human populations and exploitation of natural resources. Prioritizing wildlife protection, curbing illegal trade in ivory and bushmeat, and strengthening national institutions and organizations in charge of conservation will be crucial to counter these threats.

Ecological niche modeling of Cryptococcus gattii in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcus gattii emerged on Vancouver Island, British Columbia (BC), Canada, in 1999, causing human and animal illness. Environmental sampling for C.gattii in southwestern BC has isolated the fungal organism from native vegetation, soil, air, and water. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to help public health officials in BC delineate where C.gattii is currently established and forecast areas that could support C.gattii in the future. We also examined the utility of ecological niche modeling (ENM) based on human and animal C.gattii disease surveillance data. METHODS: We performed ENM using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to predict the optimal and potential ecological niche areas of C.gattii in BC. Human and animal surveillance and environmental sampling data were used to build and test the models based on 15 predictor environmental data layers. RESULTS: ENM provided very accurate predictions (> 98% accuracy, p-value < 0.001) for C.gattii in BC. The models identified optimal C.gattii ecological niche areas along the central and south eastern coast of Vancouver Island and within the Vancouver Lower Mainland. Elevation, biogeoclimatic zone, and January temperature were good predictors for identifying the ecological niche of C.gattii in BC. CONCLUSIONS: The use of human and animal case data for ENM proved useful and effective in identifying the ecological niche of C.gattii in BC. These results are shared with public health to increase public and physician awareness of cryptococcal disease in regions at risk of environmental colonization of C.gattii.