Do Adverse Childhood Experiences Modify the Association Between Disaster-Related Trauma and Cognitive Disability?

Identifying subpopulations that are particularly vulnerable to long-term adverse health consequences of disaster-related trauma is needed. We examined whether adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) potentiate the association between disaster-related trauma and subsequent cognitive disability among older adult disaster survivors. Data were from a prospective cohort study of older adults who survived the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The baseline survey pre-dated the disaster by 7 months. We included participants who completed follow-up surveys (2013 and 2016) and did not have a cognitive disability before the disaster (n = 602). Disaster-related traumas (i.e., home loss, loss of friends or pets) and ACEs were retrospectively assessed in 2013. Cognitive disability levels in 2016 were objectively assessed. After adjusting for pre-disaster characteristics using a machine learning-based estimation approach, home loss (0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09, 0.28) was, on average, associated with greater cognitive disability. Among individuals with ACEs, home loss was associated with even higher cognitive disability levels (0.64, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.03). Losses of friends (0.18, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.32) and pets (0.13, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.25) were associated with higher cognitive disability levels only among those with ACEs. Our findings suggest that individuals with a history of ACEs may be particularly vulnerable to adverse health consequences related to disasters.

Moderating effect of country-level health determinants on the association between hobby engagement and mental health: cross-cohort multi-level models, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.

BACKGROUND: Theories from anthropology, evolutionary psychology, and sociology have focused on the potential adaptive benefits of hobby engagement for mental health in older adults. However, previous studies have used data from single countries, potentially biased by specific measurement and methodological approaches, cohort effects, or cultural specificities. Whether there are genuine benefits for mental health in older adults cross-culturally remains unknown. This study explored the consistency of this association across 16 different nations. METHODS: For this epidemiological study, we used data from adults aged 65 years or older across 16 countries in the USA, Europe, and Asia, represented in five longitudinal studies (ELSA, JAGES, HRS, SHARE and CHARLS; N=93 263, 45-62% female, mean age 72-76 years, data collected 2008-20). We harmonised measures of self-reported engagement in hobbies and past-times, depressive symptoms (validated scales), and Likert scale responses for self-reported health, happiness, and life satisfaction. We conducted fixed-effects models and longitudinal regression models of hobbies and mental health for each country and then pooled in multinational meta-analyses. We accounted for all time-constant factors including those unobserved (eg, genetics, past leisure behaviour, medical history, psychological traits) and identified time-varying factors (eg, sociodemographic background, clinical conditions, daily functioning). We tested the potential moderating effects of country-level determinants of health in meta-regressions and multilevel models. FINDINGS: Meta-analytic fixed-effects findings showed that having a hobby was associated with fewer depressive symptoms (pooled coefficient -0·10, 95% CI -0·13 to -0·07, I2=69·5%, H2=3·28), and higher levels of self-reported health (0·06, 0·03 to 0·08, I2=48·1%, H2=1·93), happiness (0·09, 0·06 to 0·13, I2=67·0%, H2=3·03), and life satisfaction (0·10, 0·08 to 0·12, I2=33·6%, H2=1·51). Results were consistent in meta-analyses of longitudinal regression models testing directionality of findings. Macro-level factors such as life expectancy, world happiness index, country wealth, and income inequality predicted prevalence of hobby engagement, but they showed only marginal moderating effects on the association between hobbies and mental health. INTERPRETATION: Despite some heterogeneity in measurement between the cohorts, the apparent universality of the health benefits of hobbies internationally suggests that facilitating greater opportunities for engagement across demographic groups and between countries could be an important part of multidisciplinary care. Findings have implications for social prescribing schemes (currently in trial in many countries) and multidisciplinary work on origins and human behavioural patterns of hobby engagement. FUNDING: National Endowment for the Arts, Wellcome Trust, Belgian Nnational Scientific Fund (FNRS).

Pneumococcal vaccination, but not influenza vaccination, is negatively associated with incident dementia among Japanese older adults: The JAGES 2013-2022 prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether inactivated influenza vaccination (IIV) or pneumococcal vaccination are associated with the risk of dementia; however, both types of vaccination are recommended for older adults. Studies have shown that the IIV is negatively associated with incident dementia; however, the uptake of pneumococcal vaccinations has not been considered. We investigated the independent associations of IIV and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) with incident dementia in older adults. METHODS: Health-related information on older Japanese adults was obtained through a baseline survey conducted in 2013 (baseline survey). The uptake of IIV and PPSV23 was determined in a second survey conducted in 2016 (second wave). Both surveys were conducted among independent Japanese older adults aged ≥ 65 years at the two surveys and who had not been certified as needing long-term care (LTC). In the second wave, 9,865 participants were followed up for 3.5 years (short-term follow-up), and 6,995 participants were followed up for six years and five months (long-term follow-up) until they required LTC due to dementia onset (incident dementia). A competing risk model with stabilized inverse probability weighting (SIPW) was constructed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of incident dementia. RESULTS: PPSV23 uptake was negatively associated with incident dementia among participants in both the short- and long-term follow-up periods after SIPW (short-term follow-up: HR: 0.77, 95 % CI: 0.63 - 0.95; long-term follow-up: HR: 0.83, 95 % CI: 0.70 - 0.97). Conversely, IIV uptake was not associated with incident dementia among participants in either follow-up group (short-term follow-up: HR: 0.86, 95 % CI: 0.63-1.16; long-term follow-up: HR: 0.99, 95 % CI: 0.76-1.29). The PPSV23 uptake was negatively associated with incident dementia in participants without the IIV uptake (short-term follow-up: HR: 0.44, 95 % CI: 0.24 - 0.81; long-term follow-up: HR: 0.47, 95 % CI: 0.29 - 0.76). Conversely, the IIV uptake was not associated with incident dementia regardless of the PPSV23 status (short-term follow-up: HR: 0.87, 95 % CI: 0.62 - 1.23; long-term follow-up: HR: 1.00, 95 % CI: 0.74 - 1.35). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the PPSV23 uptake was independently associated with the incidence of dementia. However, the IIV uptake was not associated with the incidence of dementia.

Community-level group sports participation and all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and cancer mortality: a 7-year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Community-level group sports participation is a structural aspect of social capital that can potentially impact individual health in a contextual manner. This study aimed to investigate contextual relationship between the community-level prevalence of group sports participation and the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality in older adults. METHODS: In this 7-year longitudinal cohort study, data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, a nationwide survey encompassing 43,088 functionally independent older adults residing in 311 communities, were used. Cause of death data were derived from the Japanese governmental agency, The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, for secondary use. "Participation" was defined as engaging in group sports for one or more days per month. To analyze the data, a two-level survival analysis was employed, and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: Among the participants, 5,711 (13.3%) deaths were identified, with 1,311 related to CVD and 2,349 to cancer. The average group sports participation rate was 28.3% (range, 10.0-52.7%). After adjusting for individual-level group sports participation and potential confounders, a higher community-level group sports participation rate was found to be significantly associated with a lower risk of both all-cause mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.95) and cancer mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81-0.98) for every 10% point increase in the participation rate. For CVD mortality, the association became less significant in the model adjusted for all covariates (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.82-1.09). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the existence of a preventive relationship between community-level group sports participation and the occurrence of all-cause and cancer mortality among older individuals. Promoting group sports within communities holds promise as an effective population-based strategy for extending life expectancy, regardless of individual participation in these groups.

Sedentary behavior and the combination of physical activity associated with dementia, functional disability, and mortality: A cohort study of 90,471 older adults in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of sedentary behavior (SB) and the combination of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) with dementia, functional disability, and mortality in older adults, and the heterogeneity in different subpopulations. METHODS: Nation-wide cohort with 90,471 individuals aged ≥65 years in Japan. SB (<3, 3-<8, and ≥ 8 h per day [h/d]) and MVPA (0, 0 < MVPA<1, and ≥ 1 h/d) were measured in 2016. Long-term care registry-based incidence of outcomes was ascertained through 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were performed. RESULTS: Compared with SB < 3 h/d group, SB ≥ 8 h/d was associated with higher risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality with hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.36 (1.22-1.52), 1.32 (1.19-1.48), and 1.31 (1.18-1.45). The combination of MVPA and SB demonstrated a dose-respond trend of increasing risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality with increased SB and decreased MVPA, where participants who spent no MVPA with SB ≥ 8 h/d had the highest risks. High MVPA attenuated but didn't eliminate the risks. Participants who spent MVPA≥1 h/d with SB ≥ 8 h/d had comparable risks to those who spent no MVPA with SB < 3 h/d. No heterogeneity was found by MVPA levels, sex, education, comorbidity, and depression conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged daily SB was associated with higher risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality in older adults, regardless of MVPA, sex, education, and chronic conditions. Individuals with high MVPA also face considerable risks when engaging in high SB. High MVPA with high SB revealed a comparable risk to no MVPA with low SB.

Association of disaster-related damage with inflammatory diet among older survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

Traumatic experiences from disasters have enduring effects on health, both directly and indirectly by influencing health behaviours. Among potential pathways, the impact of disaster-related trauma on dietary patterns has been understudied. This study investigated the relationship between disaster-related trauma and dietary inflammatory index (DII®), and how these relationships differed by gender and whether they prepare meal by themselves or not among older survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (n 1375). Dietary data were collected in 2020 using a brief-type self-administered diet history questionnaire, from which we derived a dietary inflammatory index (DII®) based on twenty-six food/nutrient items, where higher scores indicate pro-inflammatory (i.e. unhealthy) diet. We found that the experience of housing damage due to the earthquake and tsunami was associated with slightly higher DII scores (coef. = 0·38, 95 % CI -0·05, 0·81). Specifically, women who cooked by themselves tended to have higher DII when they experienced housing damage (coef. = 1·33, 95 %CI -0·63, 3·28). On the other hand, loss of friends was associated with a lower DII score (coef. = -0·28, 95 % CI -0·54, -0·01). These findings highlight the importance of providing support to groups who are at increased risk of deterioration in dietary quality in the aftermath of disasters.

Socioeconomic status and incident depressive symptoms among older adults: A 3-year longitudinal study from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study.

OBJECTIVES: The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and the onset of depressive symptoms has attracted considerable attention. However, few studies have simultaneously examined the association of multiple SES indicators, including "assets," with the onset of depressive symptoms. Therefore, this study examined the association of four SES indicators in old age ('years of education' 'equivalent income,' 'equivalent assets,' and 'the longest-held job') with new-onset depressive symptoms in a large Japanese dataset. METHODS: This longitudinal study used panel data of cognitively and physically independent older adults from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) conducted in 2013 and 2016. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the association of each SES indicator with new-onset depressive symptoms, and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: We analyzed the data of 40,257 older adults, with a mean age (± standard deviation) of 72.9 (±5.5) years. In the follow-up survey, 4292 older adults had new-onset depression symptoms (10.7%). 39.3% had 10-12 years of education. 36.9% had an equivalent income of up to JPY 1.99 million. 24.4% had equivalent assets of JPY 4-17.99 million. Most had a clerical job for the long time. Furthermore, fewer years of education (males: OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.22-1.64, p-value <0.001/females: 1.26, [1.09-1.47], p = 0.002), lower income (males: 1.64, [1.34-2.01], p < 0.001/females: 1.82, [1.49-2.22], p < 0.001), and fewer assets (males: 1.40, [1.16-1.68], p < 0.001/females: 1.21, [1.02-1.42], p = 0.025) resulted in higher odds of having new-onset depressive symptoms, even when other SES indicators were entered simultaneously. CONCLUSIONS: All four SES indicators have an independent association with the development of new-onset depressive symptoms among older adults, reflecting different aspects of SES. The association between the "longest-held job" and new-onset depressive symptoms can be largely explained by other SES indicators. A multifaceted and lifetime approach is required to prevent the onset of depressive symptoms in old age.

Frequency of Going Outdoors and Risk of Poor Oral Health Among Older Japanese Adults: A Longitudinal Cohort From the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between the frequency of going outdoors and the risk of poor oral health has been reported in several studies; however, the findings have been inconclusive. METHODS: We conducted a 3-year longitudinal study of 19,972 Japanese adults aged ≥65 years who reported no poor oral condition at baseline in 2013. The respondents rated their frequency of going outdoors in three categories (≤1, 2-3, or ≥4 times/week), and the oral conditions reported in 2016 included tooth loss, chewing difficulty, swallowing difficulty, dry mouth, and composite outcomes. The associations between the frequency of going outdoors and the risk of poor oral health were examined as relative risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariable Poisson regression, while mediation analysis was performed to investigate indirect effects. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 32.5% of participants developed poor oral health. In the mediation analysis, indirect effects were observed through low instrumental activities of daily living, depressive symptoms, little social network diversity, and underweight. Compared to going outdoors ≥4 times/week, the multivariable RRs of composite poor oral health conditions were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.05-1.20) for 2-3 times/week and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.07-1.39) for ≤1 time/week (P-trend < 0.001). Similar associations were observed for tooth loss, chewing difficulty, and swallowing difficulty; the corresponding RRs were 1.07 (95% CI, 0.97-1.19) and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.13-1.64) (P-trend = 0.002), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06-1.32) and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.05-1.60) (P-trend < 0.001), and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.31) and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.08-1.77) (P-trend = 0.002), respectively. CONCLUSION: The frequency of going outdoors was inversely associated with the risk of poor oral health through several modifiable risk factors in the older population.

Six-year follow-up study of residential displacement and health outcomes following the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

Studies examining the long-term health consequences of residential displacement following large-scale disasters remain sparse. Following the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, victims who lost their homes were resettled by two primary means: 1) group relocation to public housing or 2) individual relocation, in which victims moved into public housing by lottery or arranged for their own accommodation. Little is known about how the specific method of residential relocation affects survivors' health. We examined the association between residential relocation and long-term changes in mental and physical well-being. Our baseline assessment predated the disaster by 7 mo. Two follow-up surveys were conducted ∼2.5 y and 5.5 y after the disaster to ascertain the long-term association between housing arrangement and health status. Group relocation was associated with increased body mass index and depressive symptoms at 2.5-y follow-up but was no longer significantly associated with these outcomes at 5.5-y follow-up. Individual relocation at each follow-up survey was associated with lower instrumental activities of daily living as well as higher risk of cognitive impairment. Our findings underscore the potential complexity of long-term outcomes associated with residential displacement, indicating both positive and negative impacts on mental versus physical dimensions of health.

Differences in prevalence of self-reported oral hypofunction between older adult patients with rheumatoid arthritis and the general older population: A cross-sectional study using propensity score matching.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and oral hypofunction (OHF) using propensity score matching (PSM) to adjust for differences between older adults with RA and the general older adult population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 189 older adults with RA in 2019 (mean age, 71.9 ± 3.6) and 47 178 independent older adult residents in 2016 (mean age, 71.6 ± 4.0), respectively. The questionnaire covered information on socio-demographic characteristics and OHF for both groups. Age, sex, educational level and smoking history were used to determine PSM. Prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of self-reported OHF (fewer remaining teeth, decreased masticatory function, deterioration of swallowing function and oral dryness) were estimated using Poisson regressions. RESULT: OHF was observed in 44.4% of patients with RA and 27.5% of residents. Before PSM, the prevalence of OHF among patients with RA was higher than that of residents (PR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.50-2.05). After PSM, there were 189 patients with RA and residents, and the prevalence of OHF among patients with RA was still higher (PR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.22-2.13). Poisson regression showed that the prevalence of 19 or fewer teeth (PR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.36), difficulties eating tough foods (PR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.90-1.55), difficulties swallowing tea or soup (PR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.19-2.63), and dry mouth (PR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.90-4.07) was higher among patients with RA than residents. CONCLUSION: Compared with the general older adult population, patients with RA have a higher prevalence of self-reported OHF.

Determining the most appropriate socioeconomic status indicator for describing inequalities in dental visits by Japanese older people.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the association between various socioeconomic status (SES) indicators and dental visits among older Japanese. BACKGROUND: When examining health inequalities, an adequate indicator of SES should be applied. In older adults, wealth and pensions are considered more appropriate indicators of SES than education and income, but few studies have examined. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from 12 391 individuals aged 65 years or older from the 2016 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES). The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were applied to examine the association of education, income, wealth and pensions with dental visits for treatment and check-up adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 74.0 ± 6.2 years. In the previous year, 56.3% of participants had visited a dentist for a check-up, and 65.9% had visited for treatment. Inequalities in dental treatment visits were observed for wealth, pensions and income rather than education. Income was not significantly associated with check-up visits. Wealth showed the largest association with dental visits for treatment [(SII 0.09, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.13), (RII 1.14, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.21)] and check-up [(SII 0.08, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.12), (RII 1.16, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.23)]. CONCLUSION: When measuring inequalities in access to dental care among the older population, wealth and pensions could be important indicators of SES.

[A framework for promoting and evaluating "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives according to the Plan-Do-Check-Action cycle: The ACT-RECIPE framework].

Objective　In 2019, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare emphasized the importance of promoting "Kayoi-no-ba" (or "places to go") initiatives according to the Plan-Do-Check-Action (PDCA) cycle. However, it proposed no specific promotion measures or standardized evaluation frameworks. This study is intended to propose a framework for local government officials to promote and evaluate "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives according to the PDCA cycle.Methods　The working group (WG) conducted a narrative review of research and extracted evaluation models and indicators that could be used to create the framework. The co-researcher review committee discussed a draft framework prepared by the WG, and the WG revised it based on the discussion; this process was repeated four times. Using the completed framework, we calculated the score of the "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives in 50 Tokyo municipalities and conducted regional correlation analyses on the relationship between the score of the "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives in 50 Tokyo municipalities and the number of "Kayoi-no-ba" per 1,000 older persons.Results　The completed framework (named "ACT-RECIPE" by rearranging the underlined characters below) comprised the following six evaluation phases: (1) Comprehension: understanding the key lessons around disability and frailty prevention, and the necessity for "Kayoi-no-ba"; (2) Research and Planning: clarifying the current status of "Kayoi-no-ba," the strengths of the community, and the issues to be addressed through a community assessment, and developing a plan to resolve the issues; (3) Team Building and Collaboration: building a team by collaborating with organizations to solve problems; (4) Implementation: implementing the initiatives necessary to solve problems; (5) Evaluation: verifying changes in output and outcome indicators from the initiatives; and (6) Adjustment and Improvement: re-examining plans, teams, content, and goals based on the evaluation results. In these six phases, we designated 10 core items and accompanying subitems. The median score rate of the ACT-RECIPE framework in 50 municipalities was 75% for "Comprehension," 61% for "Research and Planning," 69% for "Team Building and Collaboration," 64% for "Implementation," 31% for "Evaluation," and 56% for "Adjustment and Improvement," and the mean ACT-RECIPE score rate was 57%. A significant positive correlation (rs=0.43, P=0.002) was observed between the ACT-RECIPE mean score rate and the number of "Kayoi-no-ba" per 1,000 older persons.Conclusion　We proposed the ACT-RECIPE as a framework for promoting and evaluating "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives according to the PDCA cycle. We hope that this framework will lead to further progress in "Kayoi-no-ba" initiatives and facilitate evaluation of their effectiveness according to the PDCA cycle.

[Barriers perceived by advance care planning (ACP) facilitators in nursing and welfare professions in implementing ACP: An online survey].

AIM: This study aimed to elucidate the barriers perceived by Advance Care Planning (ACP) facilitators in nursing and welfare professions when implementing ACP in practice. METHODS: An online survey using Google Forms was conducted between December 2021 and January 2022. The survey targeted 220 individuals, including 82 who completed the Hiroshima Prefecture ACP Promotion Training in 2020 and 138 ACP Promotion Collaborators in Fukuyama City, Hiroshima Prefecture. In addition to the respondents' attributes, the survey asked about the importance of 37 items related to barriers to ACP implementation, using a 7-point scale. We compared two groups: nurses and physicians ("nurses/physicians") and other medical and nursing care professionals ("nursing care professionals, etc."). RESULTS: Responses were obtained from 67 participants (response rate: 34.4%). The barriers to ACP perceived by nursing care professionals were as follows: 1) lack of knowledge about ACP, 2) belief that other professions are more suitable for implementing ACP than themselves, and 3) difficulty in realizing intentions due to institutional and environmental factors. Nurses and physicians perceived lack of time as an important barrier. Measures such as 1) clarifying how different professions should be involved in ACP, 2) expanding educational opportunities tailored to each profession, 3) utilizing tools to support the decision-making process in ACP, and 4) establishing an information-sharing system infrastructure are considered to be effective in promoting the implementation of ACP by facilitators in the nursing and welfare professions. CONCLUSIONS: By implementing measures to address the barriers identified in this study, it is expected that the practice of ACP by facilitators in nursing and welfare professions will be promoted, and ACP will become more widespread in the community.

Uncovering Heterogeneous Associations Between Disaster-Related Trauma and Subsequent Functional Limitations: A Machine-Learning Approach.

This study examined heterogeneity in the association between disaster-related home loss and functional limitations of older adults, and identified characteristics of vulnerable subpopulations. Data were from a prospective cohort study of Japanese older survivors of the 2011 Japan Earthquake. Complete home loss was objectively assessed. Outcomes in 2013 (n = 3,350) and 2016 (n = 2,664) included certified physical disability levels, self-reported activities of daily living, and instrumental activities of daily living. We estimated population average associations between home loss and functional limitations via targeted maximum likelihood estimation with SuperLearning and its heterogeneity via the generalized random forest algorithm. We adjusted for 55 characteristics of survivors from the baseline survey conducted 7 months before the disaster. While home loss was consistently associated with increased functional limitations on average, there was evidence of effect heterogeneity for all outcomes. Comparing the most and least vulnerable groups, the most vulnerable group tended to be older, not married, living alone, and not working, with preexisting health problems before the disaster. Individuals who were less educated but had higher income also appeared vulnerable for some outcomes. Our inductive approach for effect heterogeneity using machine learning algorithm uncovered large and complex heterogeneity in postdisaster functional limitations among Japanese older survivors.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Functional Disability: a Cohort Study of Japanese Older Adults in 2013-2019.

BACKGROUND: It is important to identify older adults at high risk of functional disability and to take preventive measures for them at an early stage. To our knowledge, there are no studies that predict functional disability among community-dwelling older adults using machine learning algorithms. OBJECTIVE: To construct a model that can predict functional disability over 5 years using basic machine learning algorithms. DESIGN: A cohort study with a mean follow-up of 5.4 years. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, which involved 73,262 people aged ≥ 65 years who were not certified as requiring long-term care. The baseline survey was conducted in 2013 in 19 municipalities. MAIN MEASURES: We defined the onset of functional disability as the new certification of needing long-term care that was ascertained by linking participants to public registries of long-term care insurance. All 183 candidate predictors were measured by self-report questionnaires. KEY RESULTS: During the study period, 16,361 (22.3%) participants experienced the onset of functional disability. Among machine learning-based models, ridge regression (C statistic = 0.818) and gradient boosting (0.817) effectively predicted functional disability. In both models, we identified age, self-rated health, variables related to falls and posture stabilization, and diagnoses of Parkinson's disease and dementia as important features. Additionally, the ridge regression model identified the household characteristics such as the number of members, income, and receiving public assistance as important predictors, while the gradient boosting model selected moderate physical activity and driving. Based on the ridge regression model, we developed a simplified risk score for functional disability, and it also indicated good performance at the cut-off of 6/7 points. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning-based models showed effective performance prediction over 5 years. Our findings suggest that measuring and adding the variables identified as important features can improve the prediction of functional disability.

Cooking skills, living alone, and mortality: JAGES cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Living alone without someone to cook meals for them can happen more frequently in aging due to bereavement, divorce, or other family changes. Health risks to older adults due to poor cooking skills may be more pronounced among those living alone. We aimed to examine whether cooking skills are associated with mortality according to cohabitation status in older Japanese people. METHODS: Participants in the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, a population-based cohort of independent older adults, were followed for three years (n = 10,647). Cooking skill was assessed using a scale with good validity and modified for Japanese people in the baseline survey. After stratification by living alone or together, participants with high and low cooking skills were matched on demographic, socioeconomic, health-related factors, and availability of food stores using propensity score matching. All-cause mortality risks were compared between high and low cooking skills using Cox regression models. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 520 of the 10,647 participants died. One hundred and seventy-one pairs of high and low cooking skills were matched among those living alone, and 2,161 pairs among those living with others were matched as well. The hazard ratio of the low level of cooking skills (vs. high) was 2.50 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-5.68) among those living alone, while 1.05 (95% CI: 0.82-1.33) among those living with others. CONCLUSION: Lower cooking skills were associated with a higher risk of mortality only among those living alone. Cooking skills may be important for older adults who live alone to reduce mortality risk.

Group leisure activities are associated with a lower risk of dementia than individual leisure activities: A 6-year longitudinal study from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES).

Participating in group leisure activities may lower the risk of dementia compared with doing leisure activities alone. However, only some studies have examined the differences. In this study, we sought to determine whether the incidence of dementia risk differs according to the implementation status of leisure activities (participation in a group or alone). The association between the implementation status of leisure activities and the risk of dementia was examined using Cox proportional hazards models in the 6-year (2010-2016) cohort data of 50,935 participants (23,533 males and 27,402 females) aged 65 years or older of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. Over six years of follow-up, 5395 respondents (10.6%) developed dementia. After adjusting for potential confounders, such as depression and social support, the implementation status of leisure activities was associated with a lower dementia risk in participants who engaged in group leisure activities (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.85) and a higher dementia risk in those without leisure activity (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.22-1.39), in comparison with those engaging in leisure activities alone. Engagement in group leisure activities may be associated with a reduced risk of dementia.

Does eating with others promote happiness among older adults living alone? A 3-year longitudinal study of the Japan gerontological evaluation study.

OBJECTIVE: Living a happy life is an essential issue for old adults. However, how eating with others contributes to happiness and whether this association is different by living arrangements or not is unknown. The current study examined the relationship between the frequency of eating with others and happiness among older adults according to their living arrangements using 3-year longitudinal data. METHODS: The analyzed sample comprised 18,727 people (10,920 males and 7807 females) with low happiness (0-7 points on score of 0-10 points) from Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) in 2016. Our exposure was the frequency of eating with others: rarely, a few times a year, a few times a month, and a few times a week or more. We performed Modified Poisson Regression to examine the association between the frequency of eating with others and high happiness (8-10 points) in 2019 stratified by living arrangement (living alone/with others). RESULTS: A total of 4352 (23.2%) people showed high happiness in 2019. After adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education, household income, social participation, illnesses under treatment, and depressive symptoms in 2016, the cumulative incidence ratio (CIR) for high happiness in 2019 among people living alone was more significant, that is, 1.28 (95% confidence intervals: 0.88-1.87), 1.50 (1.05-2.14), and 1.82 (1.26-2.63), than 1.28 (1.11-1.48), 1.30 (1.12-1.50), and 1.33 (1.16-1.52) among people living with others for those who ate with others a few times a year, a few times a month, and a few times a week or more compared to those who rarely ate with others, respectively. The interaction between the frequency of eating with others and living arrangements was statistically significant. The trend test showed that higher frequency of eating with others was significantly associated with high happiness. CONCLUSIONS: Eating with others was associated with improved happiness among older adults, with such an association being stronger among people living alone.

Association of social isolation and loneliness with chronic low back pain among older adults: A cross-sectional study from Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES).

BACKGROUND: Per the biopsychosocial model, pain, especially chronic low back pain, which often presents with nonspecific pain, requires a comprehensive approach involving social factors. However, the association of social factors, including social isolation and loneliness, with this condition remains unclear. This study examined the cross-sectional association of social isolation and loneliness with chronic low back pain among older adults. METHODS: We recruited functionally independent older adults through a mail survey in 2019 from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES). Chronic low back pain was defined as low back pain lasting more than three months. Social isolation was identified based on face-to-face and non-face-to-face interactions ("not isolated," "isolated tendency," and "isolated"). Loneliness was assessed using the UCLA Loneliness Scale ("not lonely," "lonely tendency," and "lonely"). RESULTS: Consequently, 21,463 participants were analyzed (mean age: 74.4 years; 51.5% females); 12.6% reported chronic low back pain. Multivariable Poisson regression analysis revealed that loneliness was significantly associated with the likelihood of chronic low back pain; compared with "not lonely", the prevalence ratio (PR) was 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.25) for "lonely tendency" and 1.40 (1.27-1.54) for "lonely." Social isolation was not associated; compared with "not isolated," the PR (95% CI) was 0.96 (0.88-1.05) for "isolated tendency" and 0.99 (0.89-1.10) for "isolated." A positive multiplicative interaction between social isolation and loneliness for chronic low back pain was found. CONCLUSIONS: Lonelier individuals were more likely to experience chronic low back pain, and those with loneliness and social isolation were synergistically more likely for this condition.

Cooking skills modify the association between oral health and mortality.

Poor oral health has been linked to an increased risk of mortality. People with good cooking skills may be able to cope with problems caused by oral dysfunction, such as restricted food choice. This study investigated whether cooking skills modified the association between oral health status and mortality. A 3-year follow-up was conducted among participants of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, a population-based cohort study of Japanese adults aged 65-101 years. Oral health assessment comprised number of teeth and three oral functions (awareness of swallowing difficulty, decline in masticatory function, and dry mouth). Cooking skills were assessed using a valid scale adapted for Japanese participants. Mortality from 2016 to 2019 was analysed for 10,121 respondents. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality risk adjusting for potential confounders, including sociodemographic factors and health status. During the follow-up, there were 488 deaths (4.8% of all participants). Both fewer teeth and poor oral function were associated with a greater mortality risk. Cooking skills modified the association only for oral function. Stratification by cooking skill score showed that the hazard ratios for ≥2 oral difficulties (vs. none) was 2.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.43-2.96) among those with low cooking skills and 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.71) among those with high cooking skills after adjusting for potential confounders. Improving cooking skills may be key to mitigating health risks owing to poor oral functions.