Ultrasound-based steatosis grading system using 2D-attenuation imaging: An individual patient data meta-analysis with external validation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Noninvasive tools assessing steatosis, such as ultrasonography-based 2D-attenuation imaging (ATI), are needed to tackle the worldwide burden of steatotic liver disease. This one-stage individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aimed to create an ATI-based steatosis grading system. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A systematic review (EMBASE + MEDLINE, 2018-2022) identified studies, including patients with histologically or magnetic resonance imaging proton-density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF)-verified ATI for grading steatosis (S0 to S3). One-stage IPD meta-analyses were conducted using generalized mixed models with a random study-specific intercept. Created ATI-based steatosis grading system (aS0 to aS3) was externally validated on a prospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (n=174, histologically and MRI-PDFF-verified steatosis). Eleven enrolled studies included 1374 patients, classified into S0, S1, S2, and S3 in 45.4%, 35.0%, 9.3%, and 10.3% of the cases. ATI was correlated with histological steatosis ( r = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.67; p < 0.001) and MRI-PDFF ( r = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.73; p < 0.001) but not with liver stiffness ( r = 0.03; 95% CI: -0.04, 0.11, p = 0.343). Steatosis grade was an independent factor associated with ATI (coefficient: 0.24; 95% CI: [0.22, 0.26]; p < 0.001). ATI marginal means within S0, S1, S2, and S3 subpopulations were 0.59 (95% CI: [0.58, 0.61]), 0.69 (95% CI [0.67, 0.71]), 0.78 (95% CI: [0.76, 0.81]), and 0.85 (95% CI: [0.83, 0.88]) dB/cm/MHz; all contrasts between grades were significant ( p < 0.0001). Three ATI thresholds were calibrated to create a new ATI-based steatosis grading system (aS0 to aS3, cutoffs: 0.66, 0.73, and 0.81 dB/cm/MHz). Its external validation showed Obuchowski measures of 0.84 ± 0.02 and 0.82 ± 0.02 with histologically based and MRI-PDFF-based references. CONCLUSIONS: ATI is a reliable, noninvasive marker of steatosis. This validated ATI-based steatosis grading system could be valuable in assessing patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

α-FAtE: A new predictive score of response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB) and lenvatinib can be alternatively used as first-line systemic treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no direct comparison of the two regimens has been performed in randomized clinical trials, making the identification of baseline differential predictors of response of major relevance to tailor the best therapeutic option to each patient. Baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics of real-world AB-treated HCC patients were analyzed in uni- and multivariate analyses to find potential prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Significant variables were incorporated in a composite score (α-FAtE) and it was tested for specificity and sensitivity in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and in multivariate analysis for OS. The score was applied in uni- and multivariate analyses for OS of a comparable lenvatinib-treated HCC population. Finally, comparison between treatments was performed in patients with low and high α-FAtE scores and predictivity estimated by interaction analysis. Time-to-progression (TTP) was a secondary endpoint. OS of AB-treated HCC patients was statistically longer in those with α-fetoprotein <400 ng/mL (HR 0.62, p = .0407), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) <125 IU/L (HR 0.52, p = .0189) and eosinophil count ≥70/µL (HR 0.46, p = .0013). The α-FAtE score was generated by the sum of single points attributed to each variable among the above reported. In ROC curve analysis, superior sensitivity and specificity were achieved by the score compared to individual variables (AUC 0.794, p < .02). Patients with high score had longer OS (HR 0.44, p = .0009) and TTP (HR 0.34, p < .0001) compared to low score if treated with AB, but not with lenvatinib. Overall, AB was superior to lenvatinib in high score patients (HR 0.55, p = .0043) and inferior in low score ones (HR 1.75, p = .0227). At interaction test, low α-FAtE score resulted as negative predictive factor of response to AB (p = .0004). In conclusion, α-FAtE is a novel prognostic and predictive score of response to first-line AB for HCC patients that, if validated in prospective studies, could drive therapeutic choice between lenvatinib and AB.

Effect of previous infection with hepatitis B virus on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

Previous infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), which is assessed by HBV core antibody (HBcAb) or surface antibody (HBsAb) titres, has reportedly been associated with an increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the influence of previous HBV infection on the incidence of HCC in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who achieved eradication of HCV, that is sustained virologic response (SVR). Both HBcAb and HBsAb were measured in a total of 1214 patients with HCV infection who had not been coinfected with HBV, as determined by both negative HBs antigen and HBV DNA, and in whom SVR was confirmed. Patients were followed up for a median of 5.7 years, and the incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared based on HBcAb and/or HBsAb. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, the incidence of post-SVR HCC did not differ based on the presence of HBcAb or HBsAb. In conclusion, previous HBV infection has no impact on the incidence of HCC in patients with HCV after SVR.

Severe hepatic steatosis promotes increased liver stiffness in the early stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predictors of progression from steatosis to more advanced stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) remain unclear. We evaluated the association between the quantity of hepatic steatosis and longitudinal changes in liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) using magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in patients with MASLD. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with MASLD who underwent at least two serial MRE and magnetic resonance imaging-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) examinations at least 1 year apart. Fine-Gray competitive proportional hazard regression was used to identify LSM progression and regression factors. RESULTS: A total of 471 patients were enrolled. Factors linked to LSM progression were steatosis grade 3 (MRI-PDFF ≥17.1%, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.597; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.483-4.547) and albumin-bilirubin grade 2 or 3 (aHR 2.790; 95% CI 1.284-6.091), while the only factor linked to LSM regression was % decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% (aHR 2.781; 95% CI 1.584-4.883). Steatosis grade 3 correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM progression than steatosis grade 1 (MRI-PDFF <11.3%) in patients with LSM stage 0 (<2.5 kilopascal [kPa]), and a % annual decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM regression than that of MRI-PDFF >-5% and <5% in patients with LSM stage 1 or 2-4 (≥2.5 kPa). CONCLUSIONS: Severe hepatic steatosis was linked to significant LSM progression in patients with MASLD and low LSM (<2.5 kPa).

Comparison of prognostic impact of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus lenvatinib in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study goal was to compare the outcomes of patients with intermediate-stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC]-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) or lenvatinib (LEN) as first-line systemic therapy. METHODS: A total of 358 patients with BCLC-B HCC treated with Atezo/Bev (n = 177) or LEN (n = 181) as first-line systemic therapy were included. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival (PFS) times in the Atezo/Bev and LEN groups were 10.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-12.6) and 7.3 months (95% CI, 6.3-8.5), respectively (p = .019). In the propensity score-matched cohort, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 151) and LEN (n = 151) groups were 10.2 months (95% CI, 7.0-12.3) and 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.9-8.1), respectively (p = .020). Restricted mean survival times of PFS were significantly higher in the Atezo/Bev group than in the LEN group at landmarks of 12 and 18 months (p = .031 and .012, respectively). In a subgroup analysis of patients with HCC beyond the up-to-seven criteria, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 134) and LEN (n = 117) groups were 10.5 months (95% CI, 7.0-11.8) and 6.3 months (95% CI, 5.5-7.3), respectively (p = .044). CONCLUSIONS: The use of Atezo/Bev as first-line systemic therapy in patients with BCLC-B HCC is expected to result in good PFS.

Impact of body mass index on the prognosis of unresectable HCC patients receiving first-line Lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight is a negative prognostic factor in the general population in the long term. However, the role of body mass index (BMI) in the short-mid term in advanced tumours is unclear. The present analysis investigates the role of BMI weight classes in a large sample of patients affected by HCC and receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line treatment. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The cohort included consecutive patients affected by BCLC-c and BCLC-B HCC patients from a multicenter international study group who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. Population was stratified according to the BMI in under-, over- and normal-weight according to the conventional thresholds. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive impact of BMI in patients affected by advanced or intermediate HCC. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analysed with log-rank tests. RESULTS: 1292 consecutive patients with HCC were analysed. 466 (36%) patients were treated with lenvatinib and 826 (64%) patients were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab arm, 510 (62%) patients were normal-weight, 52 (6%) underweight and 264 (32%) overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients, whereas no differences were found between normal-weight versus overweight. Multivariate analysis confirmed that underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = .0323). In the lenvatinib arm, 26 patients (5.6%) were categorized as underweight, 256 (54.9%) as normal-weight, and 184 (39.5%) as overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, no significant differences were found between normal-weight versus underweight and between normal-weight versus overweight, which was confirmed at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlighted a prognostic role of BMI in a cohort of patients with advanced HCC who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while no prognostic role for low BMI was apparent in patients who received lenvatinib.

A comparative study of hepatic steatosis using two different qualitative ultrasound techniques measured based on magnetic resonance imaging-derived proton density fat fraction.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of attenuation measurement (ATT; dual-frequency method) and improved algorithm of ATT (iATT; reference method) for the assessment of hepatic steatosis using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived proton density fat fraction (PDFF) as the reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed 427 patients with chronic liver disease who underwent ATT, iATT, or MRI-derived PDFF. Correlation coefficients were analyzed, and diagnostic values were evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The steatosis grade was categorized as S0 (<5.2%), S1 (≥5.2%, <11.3%), S2 (≥11.3%, <17.1%), and S3 (≥17.1%) according to MRI-derived PDFF values. RESULTS: The median ATT and iATT values were 0.61 dB/cm/MHz (interquartile range 0.55-0.67 dB/cm/MHz) and 0.66 dB/cm/MHz (interquartile range 0.57-0.77 dB/cm/MHz). ATT and iATT values increased significantly as the steatosis grade increased in the order S0, S1, S2, and S3 (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficients between ATT or iATT values and MRI-derived PDFF values were 0.533 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.477-0.610) and 0.803 (95% CI 0.766-0.834), with a significant difference between them (p < 0.001). For the detection of hepatic steatosis of ≥S1, ≥S2, and ≥S3, iATT yielded AUROCs of 0.926 (95% CI 0.901-0.951), 0.913 (95% CI 0.885-0.941), and 0.902 (95% CI 0.869-0.935), with significantly higher AUROC values than for ATT (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: iATT showed excellent diagnostic performance for hepatic steatosis, and was strongly correlated with MRI-derived PDFF, with AUROCs of ≥0.900.

Diagnostic performance of shear wave measurement in the detection of hepatic fibrosis: A multicenter prospective study.

AIM: This study aimed to establish the shear wave measurement (SWM) cut-off value for each fibrosis stage using magnetic resonance (MR) elastography values as a reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed 594 patients with chronic liver disease who underwent SWM and MR elastography. Correlation coefficients (were analyzed, and the diagnostic value was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Liver stiffness was categorized by MR elastography as F0 (<2.61 kPa), F1 (≥2.61 kPa, <2.97 kPa, any fibrosis), F2 (≥2.97 kPa, <3.62 kPa, significant fibrosis), F3 (≥3.62 kPa, <4.62 kPa, advanced fibrosis), or F4 (≥4.62 kPa, cirrhosis). RESULTS: The median SWM values increased significantly with increasing fibrosis stage (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient between SWM and MR elastography values was 0.793 (95% confidence interval 0.761-0.821). The correlation coefficients between SWM and MR elastography values significantly decreased with increasing body mass index and skin-capsular distance; skin-capsular distance values were associated with significant differences in sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, or positive predictive value, whereas body mass index values were not. The best cut-off values for any fibrosis, significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 6.18, 7.09, 8.05, and 10.89 kPa, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study in a large number of patients established SWM cut-off values for different degrees of fibrosis in chronic liver diseases using MR elastography as a reference standard. It is expected that these cut-off values will be applied to liver diseases in the future.

Kinetics of the hepatitis B core-related antigen and treatment responses in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with tenofovir alafenamide.

AIM: An association between hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) kinetics and hepatocarcinogenesis during nucleoside (t)id analog (NA) treatment has recently been reported. HBcrAg kinetics and factors associated with HBcrAg response during tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) administration remain unclear. In this multicenter retrospective study, we aimed to clarify the efficacy and safety of TAF in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B, focusing on the reduction in HBcrAg levels. METHODS: Patients were treated with TAF monotherapy for 96 weeks, and the kinetics of HBcrAg during treatment and the factors associated with HBcrAg response (defined as a change in HBcrAg of -1 log IU/mL from baseline) were evaluated. RESULTS: The study population comprised 241 patients, 36.9% of whom were HBeAg-positive. The median baseline HBcrAg level was 4.7 log IU/mL. The median change in HBcrAg from baseline was -1.1 log IU/mL at 96 weeks after treatment. The HBcrAg response rate at 96 weeks was 56.6% (43/76). Multivariate analysis revealed high alanine transaminase level as an independent baseline factor associated with HBcrAg response at 96 weeks of treatment (p = 4.53 × 10-6). No correlation was found between the HBcrAg and hepatitis B surface antigen kinetics in patients treated with TAF monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In TAF monotherapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B, HBcrAg levels were significantly decreased and baseline alanine transaminase level is an important factor associated with HBcrAg reduction. As no correlation was found between HBcrAg and reduced hepatitis B surface antigen levels in this study, HBcrAg kinetics in addition to hepatitis B surface antigen may need to be monitored during TAF treatment.

Validation study of age-independent fibrosis score (Fibrosis-3 index) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Because the accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index for predicting liver fibrosis changes with age, the need for different cut-offs in various age groups has frequently been discussed. We developed the age-independent score, the Fibrosis-3 (FIB-3) index, and have shown its usefulness in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). This study aimed to validate the diagnostic ability of the FIB-3 index to predict fibrosis progression using a large new patient cohort. METHODS: The ability of the FIB-3 index to predict liver fibrosis was analyzed by comparing it with that of the FIB-4 index using data from 1398 patients with MASLD enrolled in the Asia-based clinical outcome NAFLD study. RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting fibrosis stage F3 or higher were not different between the FIB-3 and FIB-4 indices in the entire cohort. Using the single ideal cut-offs of the indices (3.41 for FIB-3 index and 2.01 for FIB-4 index), the predictive accuracy of the FIB-3 index was not significantly different from that of the FIB-4 index among patients aged <60 years; however, the accuracy of the FIB-3 index was significantly higher than that of the FIB-4 index in those aged ≥60 years (0.645 and 0.529, respectively; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The high ability of the FIB-3 index with a single cut-off to predict liver fibrosis in patients with MASLD was confirmed. The FIB-3 index could serve as a useful tool for assessing liver fibrosis regardless of age.

Comparative analysis of the therapeutic outcomes of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib for hepatocellular carcinoma patients aged 80 years and older: Multicenter study.

AIM: Elderly patients are believed to have a reduced immune capacity, which may make immunotherapy less effective. The aim of this study was to compare the therapeutic outcome of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) and lenvatinib (LEN) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients aged 80 years and older. METHODS: From March 2018 to July 2022, 170 and 92 elderly patients who received LEN and Atez/Bev as first-line treatment, respectively, were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: The median ages of the Atez/Bev and LEN groups were 83.0 (8.01-86.0) and 83.0 (82.0-86.0) years (p = 0.3), respectively. Men accounted for approximately 70% of the patients in both groups. The objective response rate was 35.9% in the LEN group and 33.7% in the Atez/Bev group (p = 0.8), whereas the disease control rates in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups were 62.9% and 63.0%, respectively (p = 1.0). The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups was 6.3 and 7.2 months, respectively, which were not significantly different (p = 0.2). The median overall survival (OS) was 17.9 months in the LEN group and 14.0 months in the Atez/Bev group. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.7). In multivariate analyses, the choice of treatment (LEN vs. Atez/Bev) showed no association with PFS or OS. The Atez/Bev group had a significantly higher rate of postprogression treatment (59.0% vs. 35.7%, p = 0.01) and a lower rate of discontinuation due to adverse events (69 [40.6%] vs. 19 [20.7%], p < 0.001) compared to the LEN group. CONCLUSIONS: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed comparable effectiveness to LEN in HCC patients aged 80 years and older. Given the results of postprogression treatment and discontinuation due to adverse events, Atez/Bev could serve as a first-line treatment even for elderly HCC patients.

mADRES predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with hepatitis C virus who achieved sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The study aims to develop a novel predictive model including the fibrosis (FIB)-3 index for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. METHODS: This study included 2529 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. The after DAA recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used to predict HCC development. We developed a modified ADRES (mADRES) score, in which the FIB-4 index was replaced by the FIB-3 index, and evaluated its usefulness in predicting HCC development compared with the ADRES score. RESULTS: In the training set (n = 1770), multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.01), FIB-3 index (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and α-fetoprotein (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES or mADRES score in multiple comparisons. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared with the mADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.07 (95% CI, 1.02-4.19) for the mADRES score 1 group, 11.37 (95% CI, 5.80-22.27) for the mADRES score 2 group, and 21.95 (95% CI, 10.17-47.38) for the mADRES score 3 group. Similar results were obtained for mADRES score but not for ADRES score in the validation set (n = 759). CONCLUSION: The mADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Changes in clinical outcomes in Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma due to hepatitis C virus following the development of direct-acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been accessible in Japan since 2014. The aim of this study is to compare how the prognosis of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC) changed before and after DAA development. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 1949 Japanese HCV-HCC patients from January 2000 to January 2023 categorized them into pre-DAA (before 2013, n = 1169) and post-DAA (after 2014, n = 780) groups. Changes in clinical features and prognosis were assessed. RESULTS: Despite no significant differences in BCLC stage between groups, the post-DAA group exhibited higher rates of sustained virological response (SVR) (45.6% vs. 9.8%), older age (73 vs 69 years), lower levels of AST (40 vs 56 IU/L), ALT (31 vs 46 IU/L), and AFP (11.7 vs 23.6 ng/mL), higher platelet count (13.5 vs 10.8 × 104/µL), better prothrombin time (88.0% vs 81.9%), and better ALBI score (-2.54 vs -2.36) (all P < 0.001). The post-DAA group also showed higher rates of curative treatments (74.1% vs 65.2%) and significantly improved recurrence-free survival (median 2.8 vs 2.1 years). Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, overall survival was superior in the post-DAA group (median 7.4 vs 5.6 years, P < 0.001). Subanalysis within the post-DAA group revealed significantly shorter overall survival for patients without SVR (median 4.8 years vs NA vs NA) compared to pre-SVR or post-SVR patients (both P < 0.001). No significant difference in OS was observed between the pre-SVR and post-SVR groups (P = 1.0). CONCLUSION: The development of DAA therapy has dramatically improved the prognosis of HCV-HCC patients.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common. METHODS: A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score. RESULTS: During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability. CONCLUSION: Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients). RESULTS: During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

Multivariable Quantitative US Parameters for Assessing Hepatic Steatosis.

Background Because of the global increase in the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, the development of noninvasive, widely available, and highly accurate methods for assessing hepatic steatosis is necessary. Purpose To evaluate the performance of models with different combinations of quantitative US parameters for their ability to predict at least 5% steatosis in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) as defined using MRI proton density fat fraction (PDFF). Materials and Methods Patients with CLD were enrolled in this prospective multicenter study between February 2020 and April 2021. Integrated backscatter coefficient (IBSC), signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and US-guided attenuation parameter (UGAP) were measured in all participants. Participant MRI PDFF value was used to define at least 5% steatosis. Four models based on different combinations of US parameters were created: model 1 (UGAP alone), model 2 (UGAP with IBSC), model 3 (UGAP with SNR), and model 4 (UGAP with IBSC and SNR). Diagnostic performance of all models was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The model was internally validated using 1000 bootstrap samples. Results A total of 582 participants were included in this study (median age, 64 years; IQR, 52-72 years; 274 female participants). There were 364 participants in the steatosis group and 218 in the nonsteatosis group. The AUC values for steatosis diagnosis in models 1-4 were 0.92, 0.93, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively. The C-indexes of models adjusted by the bootstrap method were 0.92, 0.93, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively. Compared with other models, models 3 and 4 demonstrated improved discrimination of at least 5% steatosis (P < .01). Conclusion A model built using the quantitative US parameters UGAP, IBSC, and SNR could accurately discriminate at least 5% steatosis in patients with CLD. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Han in this issue.

Comparison between Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab and Lenvatinib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Child-Pugh Class B in Real-World Clinical Settings.

INTRODUCTION: Systemic treatment is generally recommended for Child-Pugh (CP) A status patients with an unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). This study aimed to elucidate differences regarding therapeutic efficacy between lenvatinib (LEN), a multi-molecular target agent, and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev), a newly developed immune-combined therapeutic regimen for CP-B patients affected by uHCC. METHODS: From April 2018 to July 2022, 128 patients with uHCC treated with Atez/Bev (n = 29) or LEN (n = 99) as the initial systemic treatment were enrolled (median age 71 years; males 97; CP score 7:8:9 = 94:28:6; median albumin-bilirubin score -1.71). Therapeutic response was evaluated using RECIST, version 1.1. Clinical features and prognosis were retrospectively examined. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the Atez/Bev and LEN groups in regard to best response (CR:PR:SD:PD = 0:5:12:7 vs. 5:22:25:20, p = 0.415), progression-free survival (PFS) (median 5.0 [95% CI: 2.4-7] vs. 5.5 [95% CI: 3.4-7.9] months, p = 0.332), or overall survival (OS) (5.8 [95% CI: 4.3-11] vs. 8.8 [95% CI: 6.1-12.9] months, p = 0.178). Adverse events (any grade/≥ grade 3) were observed in 72.4%/17.2% (n = 21/5) of patients treated with Atez/Bev and 78.8%/25.3% (n = 78/25) of those treated with LEN (p = 0.46/0.46). DISCUSSION: This retrospective study found no significant differences regarding PFS or OS between CP-B patients given Atez/Bev or LEN as initial systemic treatment for uHCC.

Nutritional Status Is Associated with Prognosis in Patients with Advanced Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the relationship between nutritional status, as determined by the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and outcomes in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/bev). METHODS: The study analyzed 485 HCC patients treated with Atez/bev. RESULTS: There were 342 patients with a low PNI (<47) and 143 patients with a high PNI (≥47). The median follow-up duration was 9.4 (6.0-14.3) months. Multivariate Cox hazards analysis showed that an α-fetoprotein level ≥100 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR), 2.217; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.588-3.095; p < 0.001), and PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.333; 95% CI, 0.212-0.525; p < 0.001) were independently associated with overall survival. Multivariate analysis showed that an α-fetoprotein level ≥100 ng/mL (HR, 1.690; 95% CI, 1.316-2.170; p < 0.001) and PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.696; 95% CI, 0.528-0.918; p = 0.010) were independently associated with progression-free survival. Cumulative overall and progression-free survival rates differed significantly by PNI (p < 0.001 and p < 0.002, respectively). In a subgroup analysis using inverse probability weighting adjustment in patients with albumin-bilirubin grade 1 (n = 173), univariate Cox hazards analysis showed that a PNI ≥47 (HR, 0.502; 95% CI, 0.260-0.991; p = 0.047) was significantly associated with overall survival. Spline curve analysis revealed that a PNI of approximately 34-48 is an appropriate cutoff for predicting good overall and progression-free survival. CONCLUSION: The PNI, a biomarker of nutritional status, can predict prognosis in patients with HCC treated with Atez/bev, even those who are considered to have a good prognosis due to good liver function.

Lenvatinib as Second-Line Treatment after Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Clinical Results Show Importance of Hepatic Reserve Function.

INTRODUCTION: Lack of an established methodology for post-progression systemic treatment following atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) administration is an important clinical issue. The present study aimed to elucidate the potential of lenvatinib as a second-line treatment option after Atez/Bev failure. METHODS: From 2020 to 2022, 101 patients who received lenvatinib as second-line treatment were enrolled (median 72 years, males 77, Child-Pugh A 82, BCLC-A:B:C:D = 1:35:61:4), while 29 treated with another molecular targeting agent (MTA) during the period as second-line treatment were enrolled as controls. The therapeutic efficacy of lenvatinib given as second-line treatment was retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: Median progression-free survival/median overall survival for all patients was 4.4/15.7 months and for those with Child-Pugh A was 4.7 months/not-reached. When prognosis was compared with patients who received another MTA, there was no significant difference for PFS (3.5 months, p = 0.557) or OS (13.6 months, p = 0.992), and also no significant differences regarding clinical background factors. mRECIST findings showed that objective response and disease control rates in patients treated with lenvatinib were 23.9% and 70.4%, respectively (CR:PR:SD:PD = 3:14:33:21), while those shown by RECIST, ver. 1.1, were 15.4% and 66.2%, respectively (CR:PR:SD:PD = 1:10:36:24). Adverse events (any grade ≥10%) were appetite loss (26.7%) (grade 1:2:3 = 2:15:10), general fatigue (21.8%) (grade 1:2:3 = 3:13:6), protein in urine (16.8%) (grade 1:2:3 = 0:4:13), and hypertension (13.9%) (grade 1:2:3 = 1:8:5). CONCLUSION: Although lenvatinib treatment might not provide a pseudo-combination immunotherapy effect following Atez/Bev failure, lenvatinib when used as second-line treatment after Atez/Bev failure might be expected to be comparable as compared to its use as first-line treatment.

Role of the Prognostic Nutritional Index in Predicting Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is a multiparametric score introduced by Onodera based on the blood levels of lymphocytes and albumin in patients with gastrointestinal neoplasms. Regarding hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), its prognostic role has been shown in patients treated with sorafenib and lenvatinib. The aim of this real-world study was to investigate the association between clinical outcomes and PNI in patients being treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. METHODS: The overall cohort of this multicentric study included 871 consecutive HCC patients from 5 countries treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in first-line therapy. The PNI was calculated as follows: 10 × serum albumin concentration (g/dL) + 0.005 × peripheral lymphocyte count (number/mm3). RESULTS: Data regarding lymphocyte counts and albumin levels were available for 773 patients; therefore, these patients were included in the final analysis. The cut-off point of the PNI was determined to be 41 by receiver operating characteristic analysis. 268 patients (34.7%) were categorized as the PNI-low group, while the remaining 505 (65.3%) patients as the PNI-high group. At the univariate analysis, high PNI was associated with longer overall survival (OS) (22.5 vs. 10.1 months, HR 0.34, p <0.01) and progression-free survival (PFS) (8.7 vs. 5.8 months, HR 0.63, p <0.01) compared to patients with low PNI. At the multivariate analysis, high versus low PNI resulted as an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR 0.49, p <0.01) and PFS (HR 0.82, p = 0.01). There was no difference in objective response rate between the two groups (high 26.1% vs. low 19.8%, p = 0.09), while disease control rate was significantly higher in the PNI-high group (76.8% vs. 66.4%, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS and PFS in HCC patients on first-line treatment with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.