Pretreatment serum monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 as a predictor of long-term outcome by ustekinumab in patients with Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ustekinumab has been proven to be effective for treatment of patients with Crohn's disease; however, 30-40% of patients have been reported to lose clinical response within 2 years. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of ustekinumab and identify predictors of short-term and long-term efficacy in Crohn's disease. METHODS: Patients with Crohn's disease receiving their first ustekinumab infusion in our hospital between June 2017 and September 2020 were prospectively enrolled. Concentrations of serum cytokines and chemokines were measured using a multiplex bead array assay. RESULTS: Fifty-nine Crohn's disease patients were enrolled in this study. Among 34 clinically active patients, 38.2% achieved a clinical response at week 8. None of the assayed factors were associated with short-term clinical response. Cumulative persistence rates of ustekinumab were 77.6% at 1 year and 58.9% at 2 years. Univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that Harvey-Bradshaw Index scores at baseline, concomitant immunomodulator treatment, and concentrations of interferon gamma-induced protein-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and interleukin (IL)-1RA, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-8 were significantly associated with loss of efficacy. Multivariate Cox regression analysis found that biologic naïve status (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.1191, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02458-0.5774) and MCP-1 concentrations (HR: 1.038, 95% CI: 1.015-1.062) were significantly and associated with loss of sustained efficacy for ustekinumab treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that pretreatment serum MCP-1 analysis, combined with a history of biologic use, could be a novel biomarker for predicting the long-term efficacy of ustekinumab in patients with Crohn's disease.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio may predict clinical relapse in ulcerative colitis patients with mucosal healing.

Endoscopic mucosal healing (MH) is an important treatment goal for patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) reflects systemic inflammation and has been reported to be a useful predictive marker for UC. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of the NLR for predicting clinical relapse in UC patients with MH. We retrospectively enrolled patients with UC who underwent colonoscopy at the Osaka City University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010, whose Mayo Endoscopic Subscore was 0 or 1. The correlation between the incidence of relapse and demographic factors, including the NLR, was analyzed. We included 129 patients in the present study. The median NLR at the time of endoscopy was 1.98, and differences in the high NLR group and the low NLR group were compared. During a median follow-up period of 46.4 months, 58 patients (45.0%) experienced relapse. The cumulative relapse-free rate was significantly higher in the low NLR group than in the high NLR group (P = 0.03, log-rank test). Multivariate analysis identified high NLR as an independent prognostic factor for clinical relapse (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.98; P = 0.04). NLR is a novel and useful predictor of clinical relapse in UC patients with MH, and it can potentially be a strong indicator to determine the appropriate treatment strategy and decision-making in clinical practice.