Volcanic controls on seawater sulfate over the past 120 million years.

Changes in the geological sulfur cycle are inferred from the sulfur isotopic composition of marine barite. The structure of the 34S/32S record from the Mesozoic to present, which includes ∼50- and 100-Ma stepwise increases, has been interpreted as the result of microbial isotope effects or abrupt changes to tectonics and associated pyrite burial. Untangling the physical processes that govern the marine sulfur cycle and associated isotopic change is critical to understanding how climate, atmospheric oxygenation, and marine ecology have coevolved over geologic time. Here we demonstrate that the sulfur outgassing associated with emplacement of large igneous provinces can produce the apparent stepwise jumps in the isotopic record when coupled to long-term changes in burial efficiency. The record of large igneous provinces map onto the required outgassing events in our model, with the two largest steps in the sulfur isotope record coinciding with the emplacement of large igneous provinces into volatile-rich sedimentary basins. This solution provides a quantitative picture of the last 120 My of change in the ocean's largest oxidant reservoir.

Ediacaran reorganization of the marine phosphorus cycle.

The Ediacaran Period (635 to 541 Ma) marks the global transition to a more productive biosphere, evidenced by increased availability of food and oxidants, the appearance of macroscopic animals, significant populations of eukaryotic phytoplankton, and the onset of massive phosphorite deposition. We propose this entire suite of changes results from an increase in the size of the deep-water marine phosphorus reservoir, associated with rising sulfate concentrations and increased remineralization of organic P by sulfate-reducing bacteria. Simple mass balance calculations, constrained by modern anoxic basins, suggest that deep-water phosphate concentrations may have increased by an order of magnitude without any increase in the rate of P input from the continents. Strikingly, despite a major shift in phosphorite deposition, a new compilation of the phosphorus content of Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic shows little secular change in median values, supporting the view that changes in remineralization and not erosional P fluxes were the principal drivers of observed shifts in phosphorite accumulation. The trigger for these changes may have been transient Neoproterozoic weathering events whose biogeochemical consequences were sustained by a set of positive feedbacks, mediated by the oxygen and sulfur cycles, that led to permanent state change in biogeochemical cycling, primary production, and biological diversity by the end of the Ediacaran Period.

What can we conclude from death registration? Improved methods for evaluating completeness.

BACKGROUND: One of the fundamental building blocks for determining the burden of disease in populations is to reliably measure the level and pattern of mortality by age and sex. Where well-functioning registration systems exist, this task is relatively straightforward. Results from many civil registration systems, however, remain uncertain because of a lack of confidence in the completeness of death registration. Incomplete registration systems mean not all deaths are counted, and resulting estimates of death rates for the population are then underestimated. Death distribution methods (DDMs) are a suite of demographic methods that attempt to estimate the fraction of deaths that are registered and counted by the civil registration system. Although widely applied and used, the methods have at least three types of limitations. First, a wide range of variants of these methods has been applied in practice with little scientific literature to guide their selection. Second, the methods have not been extensively validated in real population conditions where violations of the assumptions of the methods most certainly occur. Third, DDMs do not generate uncertainty intervals. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this paper, we systematically evaluate the performance of 234 variants of DDM methods in three different validation environments where we know or have strong beliefs about the true level of completeness of death registration. Using these datasets, we identify three variants of the DDMs that generally perform the best. We also find that even these improved methods yield uncertainty intervals of roughly +/- one-quarter of the estimate. Finally, we demonstrate the application of the optimal variants in eight countries. CONCLUSIONS: There continues to be a role for partial vital registration data in measuring adult mortality levels and trends, but such results should only be interpreted alongside all other data sources on adult mortality and the uncertainty of the resulting levels, trends, and age-patterns of adult death considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Isotopically anomalous organic carbon in the aftermath of the Marinoan snowball Earth.

Throughout most of the sedimentary record, the marine carbon cycle is interpreted as being in isotopic steady state. This is most commonly inferred via isotopic reconstructions, where two export fluxes (organic carbon and carbonate) are offset by a constant isotopic fractionation of ~25 (termed εorg-carb ). Sedimentary deposits immediately overlying the Marinoan snowball Earth diamictites, however, stray from this prediction. In stratigraphic sections from the Ol Formation (Mongolia) and Sheepbed Formation (Canada), we observe a temporary excursion where the organic matter has anomalously heavy δ13 C and is grossly decoupled from the carbonate δ13 C. This signal may reflect the unique biogeochemical conditions that persisted in the aftermath of snowball Earth. For example, physical oceanographic modeling suggests that a strong density gradient caused the ocean to remain stratified for about 50,000 years after termination of the Marinoan snowball event, during which time the surface ocean and continental weathering consumed the large atmospheric CO2 reservoir. Further, we now better understand how δ13 C records of carbonate can be post-depostionally altered and thus be misleading. In an attempt to explain the observed carbon isotope record, we developed a model that tracks the fluxes and isotopic values of carbon between the surface ocean, deep ocean, and atmosphere. By comparing the model output to the sedimentary data, stratification alone cannot generate the anomalous observed isotopic signal. Reproducing the heavy δ13 C in organic matter requires the progressively diminishing contribution of an additional anomalous source of organic matter. The exact source of this organic matter is unclear.

A small marine biosphere in the Proterozoic.

The riverine supply of the globally limiting nutrient, phosphorus, to the ocean accounts for only a few percent of nutrient supply to photosynthetic organisms in surface waters. Recycling of marine organic matter by heterotrophic organisms provides almost all of the phosphorus that drives net primary production in the modern ocean. In the low-oxygen environments of the Proterozoic, the lack of free oxygen would have limited rates of oxic respiration, slowing the recycling of nutrients and thus limiting global rates of photosynthesis. A series of steady-state mass balance calculations suggest that the rate of net primary production in the ocean was no more than 10% of its modern value during the Proterozoic eon, and possibly less than 1%. The supply of nutrients in such a world would be dominated by river input, rather than recycling within the water column, leading to a small marine biosphere found primarily within estuarine environments.

Can we achieve Millennium Development Goal 4? New analysis of country trends and forecasts of under-5 mortality to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Global efforts have increased the accuracy and timeliness of estimates of under-5 mortality; however, these estimates fail to use all data available, do not use transparent and reproducible methods, do not distinguish predictions from measurements, and provide no indication of uncertainty around point estimates. We aimed to develop new reproducible methods and reanalyse existing data to elucidate detailed time trends. METHODS: We merged available databases, added to them when possible, and then applied Loess regression to estimate past trends and forecast to 2015 for 172 countries. We developed uncertainty estimates based on different model specifications and estimated levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal, and childhood mortality. FINDINGS: Global under-5 mortality has fallen from 110 (109-110) per 1000 in 1980 to 72 (70-74) per 1000 in 2005. Child deaths worldwide have decreased from 13.5 (13.4-13.6) million in 1980 to an estimated 9.7 (9.5-10.0) million in 2005. Global under-5 mortality is expected to decline by 27% from 1990 to 2015, substantially less than the target of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) of a 67% decrease. Several regions in Latin America, north Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and southeast Asia have had consistent annual rates of decline in excess of 4% over 35 years. Global progress on MDG4 is dominated by slow reductions in sub-Saharan Africa, which also has the slowest rates of decline in fertility. INTERPRETATION: Globally, we are not doing a better job of reducing child mortality now than we were three decades ago. Further improvements in the quality and timeliness of child-mortality measurements should be possible by more fully using existing datasets and applying standard analytical strategies.