Survival outcomes for cancer types with the highest death rates for adolescents and young adults, 1975-2016.

BACKGROUND: Five-year relative survival for adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients with cancer diagnosed at the ages of 15 to 39 years is 85%. Survival rates vary considerably according to the cancer type. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term survival trends for cancer types with the highest mortality among AYAs to determine where the greatest burden is and to identify areas for future research. METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry and the National Center for Health Statistics, the authors examined the incidence, mortality, and survival for the 9 cancer types with the highest mortality rates in this age group from 1975 to 2016. JPSurv, new survival trend software, was used in the analysis. RESULTS: Results suggested significant improvements in 5-year relative survival for brain and other nervous system tumors, colon and rectum cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all P values < .05). Limited or no improvement in survival was found for female breast cancer, cervical cancer, ovarian cancer, and bone and joint sarcomas. CONCLUSIONS: Five-year relative survival for multiple cancer types in AYAs has improved, but some common cancer types in this group still show limited survival improvements (eg, ovarian cancer). Survival improvements in colorectal cancer have been overshadowed by its rising incidence, which suggests a substantial disease burden. Future research should focus on female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which have seen minimal or no improvements in survival. LAY SUMMARY: Survival trends for adolescents and young adults with cancer are presented from a 40-year period. Although survival progress is noted for brain cancer, lung cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and colon and rectum cancer, the incidence of colon and rectum cancer remains high. Minimal progress is evident for female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which are in need of renewed focus.

Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, part II: Progress toward Healthy People 2020 objectives for 4 common cancers.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Cancer Society, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States and to address a special topic of interest. Part I of this report focuses on national cancer statistics, and part 2 characterizes progress in achieving select Healthy People 2020 cancer objectives. METHODS: For this report, the authors selected objectives-including death rates, cancer screening, and major risk factors-related to 4 common cancers (lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate). Baseline values, recent values, and the percentage change from baseline to recent values were examined overall and by select sociodemographic characteristics. Data from national surveillance systems were obtained from the Healthy People 2020 website. RESULTS: Targets for death rates were met overall and in most sociodemographic groups, but not among males, blacks, or individuals in rural areas, although these groups did experience larger decreases in rates compared with other groups. During 2007 through 2017, cancer death rates decreased 15% overall, ranging from -4% (rural) to -22% (metropolitan). Targets for breast and colorectal cancer screening were not yet met overall or in any sociodemographic groups except those with the highest educational attainment, whereas lung cancer screening was generally low (<10%). Targets were not yet met overall for cigarette smoking, recent smoking cessation, excessive alcohol use, or obesity but were met for secondhand smoke exposure and physical activity. Some sociodemographic groups did not meet targets or had less improvement than others toward reaching objectives. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring trends in cancer risk factors, screening test use, and mortality can help assess the progress made toward decreasing the cancer burden in the United States. Although many interventions to reduce cancer risk factors and promote healthy behaviors are proven to work, they may not be equitably applied or work well in every community. Implementing cancer prevention and control interventions that are sustainable, focused, and culturally appropriate may boost success in communities with the greatest need, ensuring that all Americans can access a path to long, healthy, cancer-free lives.

Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, part I: National cancer statistics.

BACKGROUND: The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. METHODS: Data on new cancer diagnoses during 2001 through 2016 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded and National Cancer Institute-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Data on cancer deaths during 2001 through 2017 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System. Trends in incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex, racial/ethnic group, and age were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the average annual percent change during the most recent 5 years (2012-2016 for incidence and 2013-2017 for mortality). RESULTS: Overall, cancer incidence rates decreased 0.6% on average per year during 2012 through 2016, but trends differed by sex, racial/ethnic group, and cancer type. Among males, cancer incidence rates were stable overall and among non-Hispanic white males but decreased in other racial/ethnic groups; rates increased for 5 of the 17 most common cancers, were stable for 7 cancers (including prostate), and decreased for 5 cancers (including lung and bronchus [lung] and colorectal). Among females, cancer incidence rates increased during 2012 to 2016 in all racial/ethnic groups, increasing on average 0.2% per year; rates increased for 8 of the 18 most common cancers (including breast), were stable for 6 cancers (including colorectal), and decreased for 4 cancers (including lung). Overall, cancer death rates decreased 1.5% on average per year during 2013 to 2017, decreasing 1.8% per year among males and 1.4% per year among females. During 2013 to 2017, cancer death rates decreased for all cancers combined among both males and females in each racial/ethnic group, for 11 of the 19 most common cancers among males (including lung and colorectal), and for 14 of the 20 most common cancers among females (including lung, colorectal, and breast). The largest declines in death rates were observed for melanoma of the skin (decreasing 6.1% per year among males and 6.3% among females) and lung (decreasing 4.8% per year among males and 3.7% among females). Among children younger than 15 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.8% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.4% per year during 2013 to 2017. Among adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 39 years, cancer incidence rates increased an average of 0.9% per year during 2012 to 2016, and cancer death rates decreased an average of 1.0% per year during 2013 to 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Although overall cancer death rates continue to decline, incidence rates are leveling off among males and are increasing slightly among females. These trends reflect population changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices, and treatment advances. Many cancers can be prevented or treated effectively if they are found early. Population-based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to inform efforts to decrease the cancer burden in the United States and regularly monitor progress toward goals.

Early estimates of cancer incidence for 2015: Expanding to include estimates for white and black races.

BACKGROUND: The National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence estimates through 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries' November 2017 submission are released in April 2018. METHODS: Early estimates (February 2017) of cancer incidence rates and trends from the SEER 18 registries for diagnoses in 2000 through 2015 were evaluated with a revised delay-adjustment model, which was used to adjust for the undercount of cases in the early release. For the first time, early estimates were produced for race (whites and blacks) along with estimates for new sites: the oral cavity and pharynx, leukemia, and myeloma. RESULTS: Model validation comparing delay-adjusted rates and trends through 2014 and using 2016 submissions showed good agreement. Differences in trends through 2015 in comparison with those through 2014 were evident. The rate of female breast cancer rose significantly from 2004 to 2015 by 0.3% per year (annual percent change [APC] = 0.3%); the prior trend through 2014 (the same magnitude) was not yet significant. The female colon and rectum cancer trend for whites became flat after previously declining. Lung and bronchus cancer for whites showed a significant decline (APC for males = -2.3%, 2012-2015; APC for females = -0.7%, 2011-2015). Thyroid cancer for black females changed from a continuous rise to a flat final segment (APC = 1.6%, not significant, 2011-2015). Both kidney and renal pelvis cancer (APC = 1.5%, 2011-2015) and childhood cancers (APC = 0.5%, 2000-2015) for white males showed a significant rise in the final segments from previously flat trends. Kidney and renal pelvis cancer for black males showed a change from a significant rise to a flat trend. CONCLUSIONS: The early release of SEER data continues to be useful as a preliminary estimate of the most current cancer incidence trends. Cancer 2018;124:2192-204. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Early estimates of SEER cancer incidence, 2014.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2014 using data reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in February 2016 and a validation of rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 and submitted in February 2015 using the November 2015 submission are reported. New cancer sites include the pancreas, kidney and renal pelvis, corpus and uterus, and childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years inclusive. METHODS: A new reporting delay model is presented for these estimates for more consistent results with the model used for the usual November SEER submissions, adjusting for the large case undercount in the February submission. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked for validity between the February 2016 and November 2016 submissions. RESULTS: Validation revealed that the delay model provides similar estimates of eventual counts using either February or November submission data. Trends declined through 2014 for prostate and colon and rectum cancer for males and females, male and female lung cancer, and cervical cancer. Thyroid cancer and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased. Pancreas (male and female) and corpus and uterus cancer demonstrated a modest increase. Slight increases occurred for male kidney and renal pelvis, and for all childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluating early cancer data submissions, adjusted for reporting delay, produces timely and valid incidence rates and trends. The results of the current study support using delay-adjusted February submission data for valid incidence rate and trend estimates over several data cycles. Cancer 2017;123:2524-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Assessing disparities in colorectal cancer mortality by socioeconomic status using new tools: health disparities calculator and socioeconomic quintiles.

PURPOSE: Colorectal cancer mortality rates dropped by half in the past three decades, but these gains were accompanied by striking differences in colorectal cancer mortality by socioeconomic status (SES). Our research objective is to examine disparities in colorectal cancer mortality by SES, using a scientifically rigorous and reproducible approach with publicly available online tools, HD*Calc and NCI SES Quintiles. METHODS: All reported colorectal cancer deaths in the United States from 1980 to 2010 were categorized into NCI SES quintiles and assessed at the county level. Joinpoint was used to test for significant changes in trends. Absolute and relative concentration indices (CI) were computed with HD*Calc to graph change in disparity over time. RESULTS: Disparities by SES significantly declined until 1993-1995, and then increased until 2010, due to a mortality drop in populations living in high SES areas that exceeded the mortality drop in lower SES areas. HD*Calc results were consistent for both absolute and relative concentration indices. Inequality aversion parameter weights of 2, 4, 6 and 8 were compared to explore how much colorectal cancer mortality was concentrated in the poorest quintile compared to the richest quintile. Weights larger than 4 did not increase the slope of the disparities trend. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence for a significant crossover in colorectal cancer disparity from 1980 to 2010. Trends in disparity can be accurately and readily summarized using the HD*Calc tool. The disparity trend, combined with published information on the timing of screening and treatment uptake, is concordant with the idea that introduction of medical screening and treatment leads to lower uptake in lower compared to higher SES populations and that differential uptake yields disparity in population mortality.

Preliminary estimates of SEER cancer incidence for 2013.

BACKGROUND: This article presents a first look at rates and trends for cases in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program diagnosed through 2013 using the February 2015 submission, and a validation of rates and trends from the February 2014 submission using the subsequent November 2014 submission. To the authors' knowledge, this is the second time SEER has published trends based on the early February submission. Three new cancer sites were added: cervix, thyroid, and liver/ intrahepatic bile duct. METHODS: A reporting delay model adjusted for the undercount of cases, which is substantially larger for the February than the subsequent November submission, was used. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked to assess validity between the February and November 2014 submissions. RESULTS: The validation of rates and trends from the February and November 2014 submissions demonstrated even better agreement than the previously reported comparison between the February and November 2013 submissions, thereby affording additional confidence that the delay-adjusted February submission data can be used to produce valid estimates of incidence trends. Trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 revealed more rapid declines in female colon and rectal cancer and prostate cancer. A plateau in female melanoma trends and a slowing of the increases in thyroid cancer and male liver/intrahepatic bile duct cancer trends were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of early cancer data submissions can provide a preliminary indication of differences in incidence trends with an additional year of data. Although the delay adjustment correction adjusts for underreporting of cases, caution should be exercised when interpreting the results in this early submission. Cancer 2016;122:1579-87. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Using Gini coefficient to determining optimal cluster reporting sizes for spatial scan statistics.

BACKGROUND: Spatial and space-time scan statistics are widely used in disease surveillance to identify geographical areas of elevated disease risk and for the early detection of disease outbreaks. With a scan statistic, a scanning window of variable location and size moves across the map to evaluate thousands of overlapping windows as potential clusters, adjusting for the multiple testing. Almost always, the method will find many very similar overlapping clusters, and it is not useful to report all of them. This paper proposes to use the Gini coefficient to help select which of the many overlapping clusters to report. METHODS: The Gini coefficient provides a quick and intuitive way to evaluate the degree of the heterogeneity of the collection of clusters, which is useful to explain how well the cluster collection reveal the underlying true cluster patterns. Using simulation studies and real cancer mortality data, it is compared with the traditional approach for reporting non-overlapping clusters. RESULTS: The Gini coefficient can identify a more refined collection of non-overlapping clusters to report. For example, it is able to determine when it makes more sense to report a collection of smaller non-overlapping clusters versus a single large cluster containing all of them. It also fulfils a set of desirable theoretical properties, such as being invariant under a uniform multiplication of the population numbers by the same constant. CONCLUSIONS: The Gini coefficient can be used to determine which set of non-overlapping clusters to report. It has been implemented in the free SaTScan™ software version 9.3 ( www.satscan.org ).

Early estimates of SEER cancer incidence for 2012: Approaches, opportunities, and cautions for obtaining preliminary estimates of cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program collects and publishes population-based cancer incidence data from registries covering approximately 28% (seer.cancer.gov/registries/data.html) of the US population. SEER incidence rates are released annually in April from data submitted the prior November. The time needed to identify, consolidate, clean, and submit data requires the latest diagnosis year included to be 3 years before release. Approaches, opportunities, and cautions for an earlier release of data based on a February submission are described. METHODS: First, cases submitted in February for the latest diagnosis year represented 92% to 98% of those in the following November submission. A reporting delay model was used to statistically adjust counts in recent diagnosis years for cases projected in the future. February submissions required larger adjustment factors than November submissions. Second, trends were checked to assess the validity. RESULTS: Most cancer sites had similar annual percent change (APC) trends for February and November 2013. Male colon and rectum cancer and female lung and bronchus cancer showed an acceleration in declining APC trends only in February. Average annual percent change (AAPC) trends for the 2 submissions were similar for all sites. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, preliminary 2012 incidence rates, based on February submissions, are provided. An accelerated decline starting in 2008 for male colon and rectum cancer rates and male lung cancer rates did not persist when 2012 data were added. An earlier release of SEER data is possible. Caution must be exercised when one is interpreting changing trends. Use of the more conservative AAPC is advised.

US lung cancer trends by histologic type.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer incidence rates overall are declining in the United States. This study investigated the trends by histologic type and demographic characteristics. METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program rates of microscopically confirmed lung cancer overall and squamous cell, small cell, adenocarcinoma, large cell, other, and unspecified carcinomas among US whites and blacks diagnosed from 1977 to 2010 and white non-Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and white Hispanics diagnosed from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed by sex and age. RESULTS: Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates declined since the 1990s, although less rapidly among females than males. Adenocarcinoma rates decreased among males and only through 2005, after which they then rose during 2006 to 2010 among every racial/ethnic/sex group; rates for unspecified type declined. Male/female rate ratios declined among whites and blacks more than among other groups. Recent rates among young females were higher than among males for adenocarcinoma among all racial/ethnic groups and for other specified carcinomas among whites. CONCLUSIONS: US lung cancer trends vary by sex, histologic type, racial/ethnic group, and age, reflecting historical cigarette smoking rates, duration, cessation, cigarette composition, and exposure to other carcinogens. Substantial excesses among males have diminished and higher rates of adenocarcinoma among young females have emerged as rates among males declined more rapidly. The recognition of EGFR mutation and ALK rearrangements that occur primarily in adenocarcinomas are the primary basis for the molecular revolution that has transformed lung cancer diagnosis and treatment over the past decade, and these changes have affected recent type-specific trends.

Recent Spatiotemporal Patterns of US Lung Cancer by Histologic Type.

BACKGROUND: After a period of increasing rates, lung cancer incidence is declining in the US for men and women. We investigated lung cancer rate patterns by gender, geographic location, and histologic subtype, and for total lung cancer (TLC), for the entire study period, and for 2000-2011 from 17 surveillance, epidemiology, and end results areas. METHODS: For each gender-histologic type combination, time trend plots and maps of age-adjusted rates are presented. Time trend significance was tested by joinpoint regression analysis. Spatial random effects models were applied to examine effects of sociodemographic factors, health insurance coverage, smoking, and physician density at the county level. Linked micromap plots illustrate patterns for important model predictors. RESULTS: Declining incidence trends occurred for TLC (p < 0.05, entire period). Squamous cell carcinoma trends increased for females only (p < 0.05). Small cell carcinoma trends declined overall, p < 0.05, but recently increased faster for females than males. Adenocarcinoma rates initially declined, but were significantly increasing by 2004, p < 0.05. Counties with higher current smoking and family poverty were strongly associated with higher risk for all gender-histologic types (p < 0.0001, for both variables). County socioeconomic status was associated with higher risk for all lung cancer subtypes for females, p < 0.02. Counties with more diagnostic radiologists were associated with higher TLC rates (p < 0.03); counties with greater primary care physician access were associated with lower TLC rates (p < 0.03). TLC incidence rates were higher in eastern and southern states than western areas. Male rates were higher than female rates along the West Coast. Males and females had similar small cell rate patterns, with higher rates in the Midwest and southeast. Squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma rate patterns were similar to TLC patterns, except for relatively higher female adenocarcinoma rates in the northeast and northwest. CONCLUSION: Geographic patterns and declining time trends for incident lung cancer are consistent with previous mortality patterns. Male-female time trend and geographic pattern differences occur by histologic type. Time trends remain significant, even after adjustment for significant covariates. Knowledge of the variation of lung cancer incidence by region and histologic type is useful for surveillance and for implementing lung cancer control efforts.

The crossroads of GIS and health information: a workshop on developing a research agenda to improve cancer control.

Cancer control researchers seek to reduce the burden of cancer by studying interventions, their impact in defined populations, and the means by which they can be better used. The first step in cancer control is identifying where the cancer burden is elevated, which suggests locations where interventions are needed. Geographic information systems (GIS) and other spatial analytic methods provide such a solution and thus can play a major role in cancer control. This report presents findings from a workshop held June 16-17, 2005, to bring together experts and stakeholders to address current issues in GIScience and cancer control. A broad range of areas of expertise and interest was represented, including epidemiology, geography, statistics, environmental health, social science, cancer control, cancer registry operations, and cancer advocacy. The goals of this workshop were to build consensus on important policy and research questions, identify roadblocks to future progress in this field, and provide recommendations to overcome these roadblocks.

Adolescent and young adult cancer survival.

Adolescent and young adults (AYAs) face challenges in having their cancers recognized, diagnosed, treated, and monitored. Monitoring AYA cancer survival is of interest because of the lack of improvement in outcome previously documented for these patients as compared with younger and older patient outcomes. AYA patients 15-39 years old, diagnosed during 2000-2008 with malignant cancers were selected from the SEER 17 registries data. Selected cancers were analyzed for incidence and five-year relative survival by histology, stage, and receptor subtypes. Hazard ratios were estimated for cancer death risk among younger and older ages relative to the AYA group. AYA survival was worse for female breast cancer (regardless of estrogen receptor status), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). AYA survival for AML was lowest for a subtype associated with a mutation of the nucleophosmin 1 gene (NPM1). AYA survival for breast cancer and leukemia remain poor as compared with younger and older survivors. Research is needed to address disparities and improve survival in this age group.

Cancer survival and incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program.

An overview of data on cancer at all sites combined and on selected, frequently occurring cancers is presented. Descriptive cancer statistics include average annual Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program incidence, U.S. mortality and median age at diagnosis, and death for the period 1996-2000. Changes during the time period 1992-2000 are summarized by the annual percent change in SEER incidence and U.S. mortality data for this period. Five-year relative survival for selected cancers is examined by stage at diagnosis, based on data from 1990-1999. In addition, 5-year conditional survival for patients already surviving for 1-3 years after diagnosis is discussed as well as relative survival for other time periods. These measures may be more meaningful for clinical management and prognosis than 5-year relative survival from time of diagnosis. The likelihood of developing cancer during one's lifetime is 1 in 2 for males and 1 in 3 for females, based on 1998-2000 data. It is estimated that approximately 9.6 million people in the U.S. who have had a diagnosis of cancer are alive. Five-year relative survival varies greatly by cancer site and stage at diagnosis, and tends to increase with time since diagnosis. The median age at cancer diagnosis is 68 for men and 65 for women. The 5-year relative survival rate for persons diagnosed with cancer is 62.7%, with variation by cancer site and stage at diagnosis. For patients diagnosed with cancers of the prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and urinary bladder, the relative survival rate at 8 years is over 75%.