Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development.

The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.

Impact of the updated 2018 American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists (ASCO/CAP) guidelines on Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) gene testing in invasive breast cancers: A single center study.

The study aimed to evaluate the impact of the updated 2018 American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists (ASCO/CAP) guidelines on Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) testing in invasive breast cancer compared with previous 2013 guidelines. Between Jan 2014 and May 2020, 3364 consecutive invasive breast carcinomas with concurrent HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) results were retrospectively reviewed for HER2 status. Both 2013 and 2018 testing criteria were applied to establish the HER2 status. The testing algorithms involved testing of invasive breast carcinomas by IHC, with equivocal results being reflexed to FISH assays. Concordance rate improved from 92.7% to 94.1% in the non-equivocal IHC cases with the 2018 guidelines. Comparing 2013 versus 2018 criteria, HER2 non-amplified cases increased significantly from 73.7% (n = 2478) to 76.8% (n = 2585), HER2 amplified cases remained similar from 23.4% (n = 789) to 23.2% (n = 779) while equivocal cases decreased from 2.9% (n = 97) to 0% with the new guidelines. Thus, 107 cases (3.2%) were reclassified from HER2 equivocal (n = 97) and amplified (n = 10) to non-amplified with the updated 2018 guidelines. Under the 2018 criteria, a total of 259 cases (7.7%) belonged to the uncommon categories (groups 2 to 4), with group 3 being the most frequent (4.6%), followed by group 4 (2.9%) and group 2 (0.2%). Implementation of 2018 guidelines resulted in a significant increase in HER2 non-amplified cases, mainly due to the abolishment of the equivocal FISH group. This has helped resolve the clinical practice dilemma by providing a more definitive HER2 gene status.

Clear cell sarcomas of the kidney are characterised by BCOR gene abnormalities, including exon 15 internal tandem duplications and BCOR-CCNB3 gene fusion.

AIMS: Clear cell sarcoma of the kidney (CCSK) is a rare paediatric renal malignant tumour. The majority of CCSKs have internal tandem duplications (ITDs) of the BCOR gene, whereas a minority have the YWHAE-NUTM2 gene fusion. A third 'double-negative' (DN) category comprises CCSKs with neither BCOR ITDs nor YWHAE-NUTM2 fusion. The aim of this study was to characterise 11 histologically diagnosed CCSKs immunohistochemically (with CCND1, BCOR and CCNB3 stains) and genetically. METHODS AND RESULTS: By next-generation sequencing, 10 cases (90.9%) had BCOR exon 15 ITDs, with positive BCOR immunoreactivity being found in four (36%) or eight (72%) cases, depending on the antibody clone. By reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, none had the YWHAE-NUTM2 fusion. The DN case had a BCOR-CCNB3 fusion and strong nuclear CCNB3 and BCOR immunoreactivity. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction showed markedly elevated BCOR expression in this case, whereas BCOR ITD cases had lower levels of elevated BCOR expression. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the CCSKs in our cohort had BCOR ITDs, and none had the YWHAE-NUTM2 fusion. We verified the strong, diffuse cyclin D1 (CCND1) immunoreactivity in CCSKs described in recent reports. BCOR immunoreactivity was not consistently positive in all CCSKs with BCOR ITDs, and therefore cannot be used as a diagnostic immunohistochemical stain to identify BCOR ITD cases. The DN case was a BCOR-CCNB3 fusion sarcoma. BCOR-CCNB3 sarcoma is typically a primary bone sarcoma affecting male adolescents, and this is the first report of it presenting in a kidney of a young child as a CCSK. The full spectrum of DN CCSKs awaits more comprehensive characterisation.

Role of fluorescence in situ hybridization in diagnosing cholangiocarcinoma in indeterminate biliary strictures.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Brush cytology, the conventional method to diagnose cholangiocarcinoma, has been plagued by low diagnostic sensitivity and false-negative results. This paper aims to study the clinical utility of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in enhancing identification of malignant biliary strictures. METHODS: Brush cytologic specimens collected from endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for biliary strictures in a tertiary hospital in Singapore from March 2013 to July 2015 were examined by FISH technique using UroVysion probe set in this study. RESULTS: Thirty patients were chosen with five patients having multiple FISH performed due to indeterminate results. The diagnoses for biliary strictures were 13 (43.3%) cholangiocarcinomas, seven (23.3%) pancreatic cancers, seven (23.3%) benign biliary strictures, and three (10%) primary sclerosing cholangitis. Conventional brush cytology had sensitivity of 53.8% with specificity of 82.4%. FISH had sensitivity of 30.8% with specificity of 100%. When FISH results were interpreted in cases with negative or atypical brush cytology, two patients had positive FISH results and cholangiocarcinomas. Based on this pilot study, FISH increased sensitivity of brush cytology in detection of cholangiocarcinoma from 53.8% to 69.2% while preserving specificity of 82.4%. CONCLUSION: Compared with conventional cytology with low sensitivity, FISH may help to increase sensitivity on top of brush cytology while maintaining high specificity.

Novel genetic aberrations in breast phyllodes tumours: comparison between prognostically distinct groups.

Phyllodes tumours of the breast are uncommon fibroepithelial neoplasms which pose management challenges due to difficulties in accurate prediction of clinical behaviour, as histological assessment has its limitations. Molecular studies have improved the understanding of these rare tumours but such findings are scant. We aimed to investigate genetic aberrations in phyllodes tumours stratified according to clinical behaviour, to identify potential genes contributing to disease progression. Twenty phyllodes tumours were separated into prognostically distinct categories depending on whether they had recurred/metastasized within the follow-up period. DNA extracted from FFPE materials was subjected to Affymetrix OncoScan™ FFPE Express molecular inversion probe microarray platform for analysis of copy number changes and mutational status. Results were cross validated with Sanger sequencing, FISH and immunohistochemistry. A higher number of chromosomal aberrations were observed in cases which recurred/metastasized, with median events of 19 compared to 3.5 in cases which did not recur/metastasize. High-level amplification and homozygous deletions were detected exclusively in the former group. Regions of high-level amplification included MDM4 (1q32.1), RAF1 (3p25), EGFR (7p12) and PDZD2 (5p13.3). EGFR amplification was confirmed on FISH and accompanied by intense EGFR immunostaining. Regions of homozygous deletion included CDKN2A (9p21) and MACROD2 (20p12.1). Homozygous deletion of 9p21 which involved CDKN2A was accompanied by loss of protein expression. No mutations were identified in all samples. These findings provide insights into identifying target genes and pathways exploited by phyllodes tumours, which would aid future development of individualised therapy.

Improving Estimates of the Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in the United States: Revising Keyes et al.

OBJECTIVES: The United States faces an ongoing drug overdose crisis, but accurate information on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) remains limited. A recent analysis by Keyes et al used a multiplier approach with drug poisoning mortality data to estimate OUD prevalence. Although insightful, this approach made stringent and partly inconsistent assumptions in interpreting mortality data, particularly synthetic opioid (SO)-involved and non-opioid-involved mortality. We revise that approach and resulting estimates to resolve inconsistencies and examine several alternative assumptions. METHODS: We examine 4 adjustments to Keyes and colleagues' estimation approach: (A) revising how the equations account for SO effects on mortality, (B) incorporating fentanyl prevalence data to inform estimates of SO lethality, (C) using opioid-involved drug poisoning data to estimate a plausible range for OUD prevalence, and (D) adjusting mortality data to account for underreporting of opioid involvement. RESULTS: Revising the estimation equation and SO lethality effect (adj. A and B) while using Keyes and colleagues' original assumption that people with OUD account for all fatal drug poisonings yields slightly higher estimates, with OUD population reaching 9.3 million in 2016 before declining to 7.6 million by 2019. Using only opioid-involved drug poisoning data (adj. C and D) provides a lower range, peaking at 6.4 million in 2014-2015 and declining to 3.8 million in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The revised estimation equation presented is feasible and addresses limitations of the earlier method and hence should be used in future estimations. Alternative assumptions around drug poisoning data can also provide a plausible range of estimates for OUD population.

Temporal and spatial trends of fentanyl co-occurrence in the illicit drug supply in the United States: a serial cross-sectional analysis.

Background: Fentanyl and its analogs contribute substantially to drug overdose deaths in the United States. There is concern that people using drugs are being unknowingly exposed to fentanyl, increasing their risk of overdose death. This study examines temporal trends and spatial variations in the co-occurrence of fentanyl with other seized drugs. Methods: We identified fentanyl co-occurrence (the proportion of samples of non-fentanyl substances that also contain fentanyl) among 9 substances or substance classes of interest: methamphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, heroin, club drugs, hallucinogens, and prescription opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines. We used serial cross-sectional data on drug reports across 50 states and the District of Columbia from the National Forensic Laboratory Information System, the largest available database on the U.S. illicit drug supply, from January 2013 to December 2023. Findings: We analyzed data from 11,940,207 samples. Fentanyl co-occurrence with all examined substances increased monotonically over time (Mann-Kendall p < 0.0001). Nationally, fentanyl co-occurrence was highest among heroin samples (approx. 50%), but relatively low among methamphetamine (≤1%), cocaine (≤4%), and other drug samples. However, co-occurrence rates have grown to over 10% for cocaine and methamphetamine in several Northeast states in 2017-2023. Interpretation: Fentanyl co-occurs most commonly with heroin, but its presence in stimulant supplies is increasing in some areas, where it may pose a disproportionately high risk of overdose. Funding: This work was partly supported by FDA grant U01FD00745501. This article reflects the views of the authors and does not represent the views or policies of the FDA or US Department of Health and Human Services.

Comparison of an amplicon-based large panel next generation sequencing (NGS) assay with conventional testing methods for MET and HER2 amplification in lung and breast cancers.

The frequency of MET and HER2 amplification being detected by next generation sequencing (NGS) is increasing due to NGS being increasingly adopted for molecular profiling of cancers. However, the accuracy of NGS in detecting these gene amplifications remains uncertain due to conflicting reports in the scientific literature. We studied the accuracy of an amplicon-based large panel NGS assay in detecting MET and HER2 amplification in lung and breast cancers, respectively, by comparing it against conventional testing methods. Amongst 48 lung cancers, four of five cancers that were MET amplified on fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) were classified as amplified on NGS while 42 of the remaining 43 non-amplified cancers were classified as non-amplified on NGS, giving a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 97.7% and overall concordance of 95.8%. Of the 46 breast cancers tested, only six of the nine cancers that were HER2-positive on immunohistochemistry (IHC)/FISH were HER2-positive on NGS, while all the remaining HER2-negative cases were negative on NGS, giving a sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 100% and overall concordance of 93.5%. All the false-negative cases had low level gene amplification (MET:CEP7 or HER2:CEP17 FISH ratio of <3). The low sensitivity for HER2 amplification may be confounded by the small sample size and disproportionate number of cases with low level amplification. In summary, the NGS assay has good concordance with conventional testing methods but may be less sensitive in detecting low level gene amplification.

The association between longitudinal trends in receipt of buprenorphine for opioid use disorder and buprenorphine-waivered providers in the United States.

AIMS, DESIGN AND SETTING: We sought to describe longitudinal trends in buprenorphine receipt and buprenorphine-waivered providers in the United States from 2003 to 2021 and measure whether the relationship between the two differed after capacity-building strategies were enacted nationally in 2017. This was a retrospective study of two separate cohorts covering the years 2003-21, testing whether the association between two trends in these cohorts changed comparing 2003 to 2016 and from 2017 to 2021, among buprenorphine providers in the United States, regardless of treatment setting. Patients receiving dispensed buprenorphine at retail pharmacies. PARTICIPANTS: All providers who have obtained a waiver to prescribe buprenorphine in the United States, and an estimate of the annual number of patients who had buprenorphine for opioid use disorder (OUD) dispensed to them at a retail pharmacy. MEASUREMENTS: We synthesized and summarized data from multiple sources to assess the cumulative number of buprenorphine-waivered providers over time. We used national-level prescription data from IQVIA to estimate annual buprenorphine receipt for OUD. FINDINGS: From 2003 to 2021, the number of buprenorphine-waivered providers in the United States increased from fewer than 5000 in the first 2 years of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to more than 114 000 in 2021, while patients receiving buprenorphine products for OUD increased from approximately 19 000 to more than 1.4 million. The strength of association between waivered providers and patients is significantly different before and after 2017 (P < 0.001). From 2003 to 2016, for each additional provider, there was an average increase of 32.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 28.7-35.6] patients, but an increase of only 4.6 (95% CI= 3.5-5.7) patients for each additional provider, beginning in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, the relationship between the rates of growth in buprenorphine providers and patients became weaker after 2017. While efforts to increase buprenorphine-waivered providers were successful, there was less success in translating that into significant increases in buprenorphine receipt.

Enumerating contributions of fentanyls and other factors to the unprecedented 2020 rise in opioid overdose deaths: model-based analysis.

In 2020, the ongoing US opioid overdose crisis collided with the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Opioid overdose deaths (OODs) rose an unprecedented 38%, due to a combination of COVID-19 disrupting services essential to people who use drugs, continued increases in fentanyls in the illicit drug supply, and other factors. How much did these factors contribute to increased OODs? We used a validated simulation model of the opioid overdose crisis, SOURCE, to estimate excess OODs in 2020 and the distribution of that excess attributable to various factors. Factors affecting OODs that could have been disrupted by COVID-19, and for which data were available, included opioid prescribing, naloxone distribution, and receipt of medications for opioid use disorder. We also accounted for fentanyls' presence in the heroin supply. We estimated a total of 18,276 potential excess OODs, including 1,792 lives saved due to increases in buprenorphine receipt and naloxone distribution and decreases in opioid prescribing. Critically, growth in fentanyls drove 43% (7,879) of the excess OODs. A further 8% is attributable to first-ever declines in methadone maintenance treatment and extended-released injectable naltrexone treatment, most likely due to COVID-19-related disruptions. In all, 49% of potential excess OODs remain unexplained, at least some of which are likely due to additional COVID-19-related disruptions. While the confluence of various COVID-19-related factors could have been responsible for more than half of excess OODs, fentanyls continued to play a singular role in excess OODs, highlighting the urgency of mitigating their effects on overdoses.

Why Similar Policies Resulted In Different COVID-19 Outcomes: How Responsiveness And Culture Influenced Mortality Rates.

In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, per capita mortality varied by more than a hundredfold across countries, despite most implementing similar nonpharmaceutical interventions. Factors such as policy stringency, gross domestic product, and age distribution explain only a small fraction of mortality variation. To address this puzzle, we built on a previously validated pandemic model in which perceived risk altered societal responses affecting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Using data from more than 100 countries, we found that a key factor explaining heterogeneous death rates was not the policy responses themselves but rather variation in responsiveness. Responsiveness measures how sensitive communities are to evolving mortality risks and how readily they adopt nonpharmaceutical interventions in response, to curb transmission. We further found that responsiveness correlated with two cultural constructs across countries: uncertainty avoidance and power distance. Our findings show that more responsive adoption of similar policies saves many lives, with important implications for the design and implementation of responses to future outbreaks.

Long-Term Effects of Increasing Buprenorphine Treatment Seeking, Duration, and Capacity on Opioid Overdose Fatalities: A Model-based Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Because buprenorphine treatment of opioid use disorder reduces opioid overdose deaths (OODs), expanding access to care is an important policy and clinical care goal. Policymakers must choose within capacity limitations whether to expand the number of people with opioid use disorder who are treated or extend duration for existing patients. This inherent tradeoff could be made less acute with expanded buprenorphine treatment capacity. METHODS: To inform such decisions, we used a validated simulation model to project the effects of increasing buprenorphine treatment-seeking, average episode duration, and capacity (patients per provider) on OODs in the United States from 2023 to 2033, varying the start time to assess the effects of implementation delays. RESULTS: Results show that increasing treatment duration alone could cost lives in the short term by reducing capacity for new admissions yet save more lives in the long term than accomplished by only increasing treatment seeking. Increasing provider capacity had negligible effects. The most effective 2-policy combination was increasing capacity and duration simultaneously, which would reduce OODs up to 18.6% over a decade. By 2033, the greatest reduction in OODs (≥20%) was achieved when capacity was doubled and average duration reached 2 years, but only if the policy changes started in 2023. Delaying even a year diminishes the benefits. Treatment-seeking increases were equally beneficial whether they began in 2023 or 2025 but of only marginal benefit beyond what capacity and duration achieved. CONCLUSIONS: If policymakers only target 2 policies to reduce OODs, they should be to increase capacity and duration, enacted quickly and aggressively.

Cord blood-derived Vδ2+ and Vδ2- T cells acquire differential cell state compositions upon in vitro expansion.

Human cord blood-derived γδ T cells (CBγδ) display a highly diverse TCRγδ repertoire and have a unique subtype composition different from fetal or adult peripheral blood counterparts. We expanded CBγδ in vitro using an irradiated Epstein-Barr virus-transformed feeder cell-based modified rapid expansion protocol (REP). Single-cell RNA sequencing tracked progressive differentiation of naïve CBγδ into cells expressing neoantigen-reactive tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte as well as tissue-resident memory precursor-like and antigen-presenting cell-like gene signatures. TCRγδ clonal tracing revealed a bias toward cytotoxic effector differentiation in a much larger proportion of Vδ2- clones compared to Vδ2+ clones, resulting in the former being more cytotoxic at the population level. These clonotype-specific differentiation dynamics were not restricted to REP and were recapitulated upon secondary nonviral antigen stimulations. Thus, our data showed intrinsic cellular differences between major subtypes of human γδ T cells already in operation at early postnatal stage and highlighted key areas of consideration in optimizing cell manufacturing processes.

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis.

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers' capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.

Behavioral dynamics of COVID-19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations.

Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data. Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7.03 and 1.44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.51 percent, which has been declining over time. Absent adherence fatigue, cumulative cases would have been 47 percent lower. Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date. Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations. A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months. © 2021 System Dynamics Society.

Correlating SS18-SSX immunohistochemistry (IHC) with SS18 fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) in synovial sarcomas: a study of 36 cases.

The recently introduced, highly sensitive and specific SS18-SSX immunohistochemistry (IHC) is an attractive alternative to SS18 fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) testing in synovial sarcoma (SS). However, little is known about how SS18-SSX IHC correlates with SS18 FISH. We correlated the SS18 FISH results of SS from 36 patients with SS18-SSX IHC. Twenty-six tumours had a classic break-apart FISH pattern (1 fused, 1 red and 1 green signal) and all stained positive for the IHC. Ten had an atypical (non-classic) FISH pattern of which 5 stained positive for the IHC. Four of these (including two with novel atypical SS18 FISH patterns) were confirmed to harbour the SS18-SSX fusion on targeted RNA sequencing, while one had classic features of a biphasic SS. The remaining 5 tumours stained negative for the IHC. One had a TPM3-NTRK1 fusion, and one had no fusion, while the remaining three had insufficient tissue/RNA for sequencing. The sensitivity of the IHC was 91% (after excluding the 2 cases with confirmed absence of SS18-SSX fusion). Twenty histologic mimics of SS also stained negative for the IHC (100% specificity). Our study shows that the SS18-SSX IHC is more specific than SS18 FISH in diagnosing SS, especially in cases with atypical FISH patterns. It correlates well with RNA sequencing result and has the potential to replace SS18 FISH testing. A positive IHC result supports the diagnosis of SS, while a tumour with atypical FISH pattern and negative IHC result should undergo further molecular testing.

Implementation of cytogenomic microarray with plasma cell enrichment enables better abnormality detection and risk stratification in patients with plasma cell neoplasia than conventional cytogenetics and fluorescence in situ hybridization.

The detection of chromosomal abnormalities is important in the diagnosis, prognosis and disease monitoring in plasma cell neoplasia (PCN). However, the gold standard diagnostic techniques of conventional cytogenetics (CC) and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) are hampered by culture difficulties and probe availability. Cytogenomic microarray (CMA), however, is able to surmount such limitations and generate a comprehensive genomic profile with the implementation of plasma cell (PC) enrichment. In this study, we examined 89 bone marrow specimens with CC and FISH without PC enrichment, 35 of which were examined with CMA after PC enrichment. Results revealed that after PC enrichment, CMA was able to detect chromosomal abnormalities in 34 of 35 specimens tested (97.1%), compared to 21 and 32 specimens (60% and 91.4%, respectively) achieved by CC and FISH, respectively, which were similar to the abnormality detection rates among all 89 specimens (59.5% by CC and 92.1% by FISH). In addition, as the only technique capable of detecting copy neutral loss of heterozygosity (CN-LOH) and chromothripsis, CMA appears to be the most powerful tool in risk stratification as it successfully re-stratified 9 (25.7%) and 12 (34.3%) specimens from standard risk (determined by CC and FISH, respectively) to high risk. Based on the encouraging data presented by our study and others, we conclude that implementation of CMA with PC enrichment is of great value in routine clinical workup in achieving a more complete genetic profile of patients with PCN.

Data Needs in Opioid Systems Modeling: Challenges and Future Directions.

INTRODUCTION: The opioid crisis is a pervasive public health threat in the U.S. Simulation modeling approaches that integrate a systems perspective are used to understand the complexity of this crisis and analyze what policy interventions can best address it. However, limitations in currently available data sources can hamper the quantification of these models. METHODS: To understand and discuss data needs and challenges for opioid systems modeling, a meeting of federal partners, modeling teams, and data experts was held at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in April 2019. This paper synthesizes the meeting discussions and interprets them in the context of ongoing simulation modeling work. RESULTS: The current landscape of national-level quantitative data sources of potential use in opioid systems modeling is identified, and significant issues within data sources are discussed. Major recommendations on how to improve data sources are to: maintain close collaboration among modeling teams, enhance data collection to better fit modeling needs, focus on bridging the most crucial information gaps, engage in direct and regular interaction between modelers and data experts, and gain a clearer definition of policymakers' research questions and policy goals. CONCLUSIONS: This article provides an important step in identifying and discussing data challenges in opioid research generally and opioid systems modeling specifically. It also identifies opportunities for systems modelers and government agencies to improve opioid systems models.

Individualized Molecular Profiling for Allocation to Clinical Trials Singapore Study-An Asian Tertiary Cancer Center Experience.

PURPOSE: Precision oncology has transformed the management of advanced cancers through implementation of advanced molecular profiling technologies to identify increasingly defined subsets of patients and match them to appropriate therapy. We report outcomes of a prospective molecular profiling study in a high-volume Asian tertiary cancer center. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with advanced cancer were enrolled onto a prospective protocol for genomic profiling, the Individualized Molecular Profiling for Allocation to Clinical Trials Singapore study, at the National Cancer Center Singapore. Primary objective was to identify molecular biomarkers in patient's tumors for allocation to clinical trials. The study commenced in February 2012 and is ongoing, with the results of all patients who underwent multiplex next-generation sequencing (NGS) testing until December 2018 presented here. The results were discussed at a molecular tumor board where recommendations for allocation to biomarker-directed trials or targeted therapies were made. RESULTS: One thousand fifteen patients were enrolled with a median age of 58 years (range 20-83 years). Most common tumor types were lung adenocarcinoma (26%), colorectal cancer (15%), and breast cancer (12%). A total of 1,064 NGS assays were performed, on fresh tumor tissue for 369 (35%) and archival tumor tissue for 687 (65%) assays. TP53 (39%) alterations were most common, followed by EGFR (21%), KRAS (14%), and PIK3CA (10%). Of 405 NGS assays with potentially actionable alterations, 111 (27%) were allocated to a clinical trial after molecular tumor board and 20 (4.9%) were enrolled on a molecularly matched clinical trial. Gene fusions were detected in 23 of 311 (7%) patients tested, including rare fusions in new tumor types and known fusions in rare tumors. CONCLUSION: Individualized Molecular Profiling for Allocation to Clinical Trials Singapore demonstrates the feasibility of a prospective broad molecular profiling program in an Asian tertiary cancer center, with the ability to develop and adapt to a dynamic landscape of precision oncology.