Performance metrics for models designed to predict treatment effect.

BACKGROUND: Measuring the performance of models that predict individualized treatment effect is challenging because the outcomes of two alternative treatments are inherently unobservable in one patient. The C-for-benefit was proposed to measure discriminative ability. However, measures of calibration and overall performance are still lacking. We aimed to propose metrics of calibration and overall performance for models predicting treatment effect in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). METHODS: Similar to the previously proposed C-for-benefit, we defined observed pairwise treatment effect as the difference between outcomes in pairs of matched patients with different treatment assignment. We match each untreated patient with the nearest treated patient based on the Mahalanobis distance between patient characteristics. Then, we define the Eavg-for-benefit, E50-for-benefit, and E90-for-benefit as the average, median, and 90th quantile of the absolute distance between the predicted pairwise treatment effects and local-regression-smoothed observed pairwise treatment effects. Furthermore, we define the cross-entropy-for-benefit and Brier-for-benefit as the logarithmic and average squared distance between predicted and observed pairwise treatment effects. In a simulation study, the metric values of deliberately "perturbed models" were compared to those of the data-generating model, i.e., "optimal model". To illustrate these performance metrics, different modeling approaches for predicting treatment effect are applied to the data of the Diabetes Prevention Program: 1) a risk modelling approach with restricted cubic splines; 2) an effect modelling approach including penalized treatment interactions; and 3) the causal forest. RESULTS: As desired, performance metric values of "perturbed models" were consistently worse than those of the "optimal model" (Eavg-for-benefit ≥ 0.043 versus 0.002, E50-for-benefit ≥ 0.032 versus 0.001, E90-for-benefit ≥ 0.084 versus 0.004, cross-entropy-for-benefit ≥ 0.765 versus 0.750, Brier-for-benefit ≥ 0.220 versus 0.218). Calibration, discriminative ability, and overall performance of three different models were similar in the case study. The proposed metrics were implemented in a publicly available R-package "HTEPredictionMetrics". CONCLUSION: The proposed metrics are useful to assess the calibration and overall performance of models predicting treatment effect in RCTs.

Instrumental variable analysis to estimate treatment effects: a simulation study showing potential benefits of conditioning on hospital.

BACKGROUND: Instrumental variable (IV) analysis holds the potential to estimate treatment effects from observational data. IV analysis potentially circumvents unmeasured confounding but makes a number of assumptions, such as that the IV shares no common cause with the outcome. When using treatment preference as an instrument, a common cause, such as a preference regarding related treatments, may exist. We aimed to explore the validity and precision of a variant of IV analysis where we additionally adjust for the provider: adjusted IV analysis. METHODS: A treatment effect on an ordinal outcome was simulated (beta - 0.5 in logistic regression) for 15.000 patients, based on a large data set (the IMPACT data, n = 8799) using different scenarios including measured and unmeasured confounders, and a common cause of IV and outcome. We compared estimated treatment effects with patient-level adjustment for confounders, IV with treatment preference as the instrument, and adjusted IV, with hospital added as a fixed effect in the regression models. RESULTS: The use of patient-level adjustment resulted in biased estimates for all the analyses that included unmeasured confounders, IV analysis was less confounded, but also less reliable. With correlation between treatment preference and hospital characteristics (a common cause) estimates were skewed for regular IV analysis, but not for adjusted IV analysis. CONCLUSION: When using IV analysis for comparing hospitals, some limitations of regular IV analysis can be overcome by adjusting for a common cause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We do not report the results of a health care intervention.

Randomized trial of intravenous immunoglobulin maintenance treatment regimens in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: High peak serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels may not be needed for maintenance intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) treatment in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) and such high levels may cause side effects. More frequent lower dosing may lead to more stable IgG levels and higher trough levels, which might improve efficacy. The aim of this trial is to investigate whether high frequent low dosage IVIg treatment is more effective than low frequent high dosage IVIg treatment. METHODS: In this randomized placebo-controlled crossover trial, we included patients with CIDP proven to be IVIg-dependent and receiving an individually established stable dose and interval of IVIg maintenance treatment. In the control arm, patients received their individual IVIg dose and interval followed by a placebo infusion at half the interval. In the intervention arm, patients received half their individual dose at half the interval. After a wash-out phase patients crossed over. The primary outcome measure was handgrip strength (assessed using a Martin Vigorimeter). Secondary outcome indicators were health-related quality of life (36-item Short-Form Health Survey), disability (Inflammatory Rasch-built Overall Disability Scale), fatigue (Rasch-built Fatigue Severity Scale) and side effects. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients were included and were treated at baseline with individually adjusted dosages of IVIg ranging from 20 to 80 g and intervals ranging from 14 to 35 days. Three participants did not complete the trial; the main analysis was therefore based on the 22 patients completing both treatment periods. There was no significant difference in handgrip strength change from baseline between the two treatment regimens (coefficient -2.71, 95% CI -5.4, 0.01). Furthermore, there were no significant differences in any of the secondary outcomes or side effects. CONCLUSIONS: More frequent lower dosing does not further improve the efficacy of IVIg in stable IVIg-dependent CIDP and does not result in fewer side effects.

Ordinal outcome analysis improves the detection of between-hospital differences in outcome.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in assessment of the quality of hospital care, based on outcome measures. Many quality of care comparisons rely on binary outcomes, for example mortality rates. Due to low numbers, the observed differences in outcome are partly subject to chance. We aimed to quantify the gain in efficiency by ordinal instead of binary outcome analyses for hospital comparisons. We analyzed patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and stroke as examples. METHODS: We sampled patients from two trials. We simulated ordinal and dichotomous outcomes based on the modified Rankin Scale (stroke) and Glasgow Outcome Scale (TBI) in scenarios with and without true differences between hospitals in outcome. The potential efficiency gain of ordinal outcomes, analyzed with ordinal logistic regression, compared to dichotomous outcomes, analyzed with binary logistic regression was expressed as the possible reduction in sample size while keeping the same statistical power to detect outliers. RESULTS: In the IMPACT study (9578 patients in 265 hospitals, mean number of patients per hospital = 36), the analysis of the ordinal scale rather than the dichotomized scale ('unfavorable outcome'), allowed for up to 32% less patients in the analysis without a loss of power. In the PRACTISE trial (1657 patients in 12 hospitals, mean number of patients per hospital = 138), ordinal analysis allowed for 13% less patients. Compared to mortality, ordinal outcome analyses allowed for up to 37 to 63% less patients. CONCLUSIONS: Ordinal analyses provide the statistical power of substantially larger studies which have been analyzed with dichotomization of endpoints. We advise to exploit ordinal outcome measures for hospital comparisons, in order to increase efficiency in quality of care measurements. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We do not report the results of a health care intervention.

Between-centre differences in care for in-hospital cardiac arrest: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest is poor, but current literature shows substantial heterogeneity in reported survival rates. This study aims to evaluate care for patients suffering in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in the Netherlands by assessing between-hospital heterogeneity in outcomes and to explain this heterogeneity stemming from differences in case-mix or differences in quality of care. METHODS: A prospective multicentre study was conducted comprising 14 centres. All IHCA patients were included. The adjusted variation in structure and process indicators of quality of care and outcomes (in-hospital mortality and cerebral performance category [CPC] scale) was assessed with mixed effects regression with centre as random intercept. Variation was quantified using the median odds ratio (MOR), representing the expected odds ratio for poor outcome between two randomly picked centres. RESULTS: After excluding centres with less than 10 inclusions (2 centres), 701 patients were included of whom, 218 (32%) survived to hospital discharge. The unadjusted and case-mix adjusted MOR for mortality was 1.19 and 1.05, respectively. The unadjusted and adjusted MOR for CPC score was 1.24 and 1.19, respectively. In hospitals where personnel received cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training twice per year, 183 (64.7%) versus 290 (71.4%) patients died or were in a vegetative state, and 59 (20.8%) versus 68 (16.7%) patients showed full recovery (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In the Netherlands, survival after IHCA is relatively high and between-centre differences in outcomes are small. The existing differences in survival are mainly attributable to differences in case-mix. Variation in neurological outcome is less attributable to case-mix.

Path From Clinical Research to Implementation: Endovascular Treatment of Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands.

Before 2015, endovascular treatment (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke was considered a promising treatment option. Based on limited evidence, it was performed in several dedicated stroke centers worldwide on selected patients. Since 2015, EVT for patients with intracranial large vessel occlusion has quickly been implemented as standard treatment in many countries worldwide, supported by the revised international guidelines based on solid evidence from multiple clinical trials. We describe the development in use of EVT in the Netherlands before, during, and after the pivotal EVT trials. We used data from all patients who were treated with EVT in the Netherlands from January 2002 until December 2018. We undertook a time-series analysis to examine trends in the use of EVT using Poisson regression analysis. Incidence rate ratios per year with 95% CIs were obtained to demonstrate the impact and implementation after the publication of the EVT trial results. We made regional observation plots, adjusted for stroke incidence, to assess the availability and use of the treatment in the country. In the buildup to the MR CLEAN (Multicenter Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands), a slow increase of EVT patients was observed, with 0.2% of all ischemic stroke patients receiving EVT. Before the trial results were formally announced, a statistically significant increase in EVT-treated patients per year was observed (incidence rate ratio, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.46-2.04]), and after the trial publication, an immediate steep increase was seen, followed by a more gradual increase (incidence rate ratio, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.77-2.59]). In 2018, the percentage of ischemic stroke patients receiving EVT increased to 5.8%. A well-developed infrastructure, a pragmatic approach toward the use of EVT in clinical practice, in combination with a strict adherence by the regulatory authorities to national evidence-based guidelines has led to successful implementation of EVT in the Netherlands. Ongoing efforts are directed at further increasing the proportion of stroke patients with EVT in all regions of the country.

Trauma models to identify major trauma and mortality in the prehospital setting.

BACKGROUND: Patients with major trauma might benefit from treatment in a trauma centre, but early identification of major trauma (Injury Severity Score (ISS) over 15) remains difficult. The aim of this study was to undertake an external validation of existing prognostic models for injured patients to assess their ability to predict mortality and major trauma in the prehospital setting. METHODS: Prognostic models were identified through a systematic literature search up to October 2017. Injured patients transported by Emergency Medical Services to an English hospital from the Trauma Audit and Research Network between 2013 and 2016 were included. Outcome measures were major trauma (ISS over 15) and in-hospital mortality. The performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination (concordance index, C-statistic) and net benefit to assess the clinical usefulness. RESULTS: A total of 154 476 patients were included to validate six previously proposed prediction models. Discriminative ability ranged from a C-statistic value of 0·602 (95 per cent c.i. 0·596 to 0·608) for the Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age and Arterial Pressure model to 0·793 (0·789 to 0·797) for the modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (mREMS) in predicting in-hospital mortality (11 882 patients). Major trauma was identified in 52 818 patients, with discrimination from a C-statistic value of 0·589 (0·586 to 0·592) for mREMS to 0·735 (0·733 to 0·737) for the Kampala Trauma Score in predicting major trauma. None of the prediction models met acceptable undertriage and overtriage rates. CONCLUSION: Currently available prehospital trauma models perform reasonably in predicting in-hospital mortality, but are inadequate in identifying patients with major trauma. Future research should focus on which patients would benefit from treatment in a major trauma centre.

ANTECEDENTES: Los pacientes con traumatismo mayor pueden beneficiarse del tratamiento en un centro de trauma, pero la identificación precoz del traumatismo mayor (Injury Severity Score, ISS > 15) sigue siendo difícil. El objetivo de este estudio fue validar externamente los modelos pronósticos existentes para los pacientes con traumatismos con el fin de evaluar su capacidad para predecir el traumatismo mayor y la mortalidad en el entorno pre-hospitalario. MÉTODOS: Los modelos pronóstico se identificaron mediante una búsqueda sistemática de la literatura hasta octubre de 2017. Los pacientes incluidos fueron pacientes con traumatismos que fueron trasladados mediante los servicios de emergencia médica (emergency medical services, EMS) a un hospital inglés perteneciente a Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) entre 2013 y 2016. Las variables evaluadas fueron los traumatismos graves (ISS > 15) y la mortalidad hospitalaria. El rendimiento de los modelos se analizó en términos de discriminación (índice de concordancia, c) y de beneficio neto para evaluar la utilidad clínica. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron un total de 154.476 pacientes para validar los seis modelos de predicción propuestos previamente. La capacidad discriminatoria osciló entre c = 0,602 (i.c. del 95%: 0,596-0,608) para el modelo que incluye mecanismo, escala de coma de Glasgow, edad y presión arterial (MGAP) hasta c = 0,793 (0,789-0,797) para la puntuación de medicina de emergencia rápida modificada (mREMS) en la predicción de la mortalidad hospitalaria (n = 11.882). Se identificó un traumatismo mayor en 52.818 pacientes, con una discriminación de c = 0,589 (0,586-0,592) para mREMS a c = 0,735 (0,733-0,737) para la puntuación de trauma de Kampala en la predicción de traumatismo mayor. Ninguno de los modelos de predicción cumplió con las tasas aceptables de subtriaje (undertriage) y sobretriaje (overtriage). CONCLUSIÓN: Los modelos de trauma pre-hospitalarios actualmente disponibles tienen un rendimiento razonable para predecir la mortalidad hospitalaria, pero son inadecuados para identificar a los pacientes con traumatismo mayor. En el futuro, las investigaciones deberían centrarse en identificar a los pacientes que se podrían beneficiar del tratamiento en un centro de trauma especializado.

Variation in the practice of tracheal intubation in Europe after traumatic brain injury: a prospective cohort study.

Traumatic brain injury patients frequently undergo tracheal intubation. We aimed to assess current intubation practice in Europe and identify variation in practice. We analysed data from patients with traumatic brain injury included in the prospective cohort study collaborative European neurotrauma effectiveness research in traumatic brain injury (CENTER-TBI) in 45 centres in 16 European countries. We included patients who were transported to hospital by emergency medical services. We used mixed-effects multinomial regression to quantify the effects on pre-hospital or in-hospital tracheal intubation of the following: patient characteristics; injury characteristics; centre; and trauma system characteristics. A total of 3843 patients were included. Of these, 1322 (34%) had their tracheas intubated; 839 (22%) pre-hospital and 483 (13%) in-hospital. The fit of the model with only patient characteristics predicting intubation was good (Nagelkerke R2 64%). The probability of tracheal intubation increased with the following: younger age; lower pre-hospital or emergency department GCS; higher abbreviated injury scale scores (head and neck, thorax and chest, face or abdomen abbreviated injury score); and one or more unreactive pupils. The adjusted median odds ratio for intubation between two randomly chosen centres was 3.1 (95%CI 2.1-4.3) for pre-hospital intubation, and 2.7 (95%CI 1.9-3.5) for in-hospital intubation. Furthermore, the presence of an anaesthetist was independently associated with more pre-hospital intubation (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.3-6.6), in contrast to the presence of ambulance personnel who are allowed to intubate (OR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3-0.8). In conclusion, patient and injury characteristics are key drivers of tracheal intubation. Between-centre differences were also substantial. Further studies are needed to improve the evidence base supporting recommendations for tracheal intubation.

Systematic review of current randomised control trials in chronic subdural haematoma and proposal for an international collaborative approach.

BACKGROUND: Chronic subdural haematoma (CSDH) is a pathology that is frequently encountered by neurosurgeons. Nevertheless, there is a lack of guidelines based on solid evidence. There has been a recent and considerable increase in the interest on management and outcomes for CSDH. Therefore, we systematically reviewed all currently running randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in chronic subdural haematoma to understand the areas under investigation and plan future collaborative trials. METHODS: Clinical trials databases (Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, WHO ICTRP and clinical trials.gov) were searched for trials relevant to chronic subdural haematoma. It was then established which trials were currently running and fulfilled robust research methodology for a RCT. RESULTS: There are 26 currently running RCTs in CSDH, with the most common topics covering application of steroids (7), surgical techniques (5) and tranexamic acid (5). Further to this, there are trials running on other pharmacological agents (4), middle meningeal artery (MMA) embolisation (2) and peri-operative management (3). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacological agents are a particular focus of CSDH management currently, and a wealth of studies on steroids will hopefully lead to more harmonised, evidence-based practice regarding this in the near future. Surgical techniques and new procedures such as MMA embolisation are also important focuses for improving patient outcomes. There is an on-going need for future RCTs and evidence-based guidelines in CSDH, particularly including low- and middle-income countries, and it is hoped that the establishment of the iCORIC (International COllaborative Research Initiative on Chronic Subdural Haematoma) will help address this.

Follow-up infarct volume as a mediator of endovascular treatment effect on functional outcome in ischaemic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: The putative mechanism for the favourable effect of endovascular treatment (EVT) on functional outcome after acute ischaemic stroke is preventing follow-up infarct volume (FIV) progression. We aimed to assess to what extent difference in FIV explains the effect of EVT on functional outcome in a randomised trial of EVT versus no EVT (MR CLEAN). METHODS: FIV was assessed on non-contrast CT scan 5-7 days after stroke. Functional outcome was the score on the modified Rankin Scale at 3 months. We tested the causal pathway from intervention, via FIV to functional outcome with a mediation model, using linear and ordinal regression, adjusted for relevant baseline covariates, including stroke severity. Explained effect was assessed by taking the ratio of the log odds ratios of treatment with and without adjustment for FIV. RESULTS: Of the 500 patients included in MR CLEAN, 60 died and four patients underwent hemicraniectomy before FIV was assessed, leaving 436 patients for analysis. Patients in the intervention group had better functional outcomes (adjusted common odds ratio (acOR) 2.30 (95% CI 1.62-3.26) than controls and smaller FIV (median 53 vs. 81 ml) (difference 28 ml; 95% CI 13-41). Smaller FIV was associated with better outcome (acOR per 10 ml 0.60, 95% CI 0.52-0.68). After adjustment for FIV the effect of intervention on functional outcome decreased but remained substantial (acOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.44-2.91). This implies that preventing FIV progression explains 14% (95% CI 0-34) of the beneficial effect of EVT on outcome. CONCLUSION: The effect of EVT on FIV explains only part of the treatment effect on functional outcome. KEY POINTS: • Endovascular treatment in acute ischaemic stroke patients prevents progression of follow-up infarct volume on non-contrast CT at 5-7 days. • Follow-up infarct volume was related to functional outcome, but only explained a modest part of the effect of intervention on functional outcome. • A large proportion of treatment effect on functional outcome remains unexplained, suggesting FIV alone cannot be used as an early surrogate imaging marker of functional outcome.

Prediction models for mortality in adult patients visiting the Emergency Department: a systematic review.

We provide a systematic overview of literature on prediction models for mortality in the Emergency Department (ED). We searched various databases for observational studies in the ED or similar setting describing prediction models for short-term mortality (up to 30 days or in-hospital mortality) in a non-trauma population. We used the CHARMS-checklist for quality assessment. We found a total of 14.768 articles and included 17 articles, describing 22 models. Model performance ranged from AUC 0.63-0.93. Most articles had a moderate risk of bias in one or more domains. The full model and PARIS model performed best, but are not yet ready for implementation. There is a need for validation studies to compare multiple prediction models and to evaluate their accuracy.

Patient-Reported Outcome Measures May Add Value in Breast Cancer Surgery.

PURPOSE: Considering the comparable prognosis in early-stage breast cancer after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) and mastectomy, quality of life should be a focus in treatment decision(s). We retrospectively collected PROs and analyzed differences per type of surgery delivered. We aimed to obtain reference values helpful in shared decision-making. PATIENTS AND METHODS: pTis-T3N0-3M0 patients operated between January 2005 and September 2016 were eligible if: (1) no chemotherapy was administered < 6 months prior to enrolment, and (2) identical surgeries were performed in case of bilateral surgery. After consent, EQ-5D-5L, EORTC-QLQ-C30/BR23, and BREAST-Q were administered. PROs were evaluated per baseline characteristics using multivariable linear regression models. Outcomes were compared for different surgeries as well as for primary (PBC) and second primary or recurrent (SBC) breast cancer patients using analyses of variance (ANOVAs). RESULTS: The response rate was 68%. PROs in 612 PBC patients were comparable to those in 152 SBC patients. Multivariable analyses showed increasing age to be associated with lower "physical functioning" [ß - 0.259, p < 0.001] and "sexual functioning" [ß - 0.427, p < 0.001], and increasing time since surgery with less "fatigue" [ß - 1.083, p < 0.001]. Mastectomy [ß - 13.596, p = 0.003] and implant reconstruction [ß - 13.040, p = 0.007] were associated with lower "satisfaction with breast" scores than BCT. Radiation therapy was associated with lower satisfaction scores than absence of radiotherapy. DISCUSSION: PRO scores were associated with age, time since surgery, type of surgery, and radiation therapy in breast cancer patients. The scores serve as a reference value for different types of surgery in the study population and enable prospective use of PROs in shared decision-making.

Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. METHODS: The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. RESULTS: Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. CONCLUSION: Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems.

Increase in national intravenous thrombolysis rates for ischaemic stroke between 2005 and 2012: is bigger better?

BACKGROUND: Intravenous thrombolytic therapy after ischaemic stroke significantly reduces mortality and morbidity. Actual thrombolysis rates are disappointingly low in many western countries. It has been suggested that higher patient volume is related to shorter door-to-needle-time (DNT) and increased thrombolysis rates. We address a twofold research question: a) What are trends in national thrombolysis rates and door-to-needle times in the Netherlands between 2005-2012? and b) Is there a relationship between stroke patient volume per hospital, thrombolysis rates and DNT? METHODS: We used data from the Stroke Knowledge Network Netherlands dataset. Information on volume, intravenous thrombolysis rates, and admission characteristics per hospital is acquired through yearly surveys, in up to 65 hospitals between January 2005 and December 2012. We used linear regression to determine a possible relationship between hospital stroke admission volume, hospital thrombolysis rates and mean hospital DNT, adjusted for patient characteristics. RESULTS: Information on 121.887 stroke admissions was available, ranging from 7.393 admissions in 2005 to 24.067 admissions in 2012. Mean national thrombolysis rate increased from 6.4% in 2005 to 14.6% in 2012. Patient characteristics (mean age, gender, type of stroke) remained stable. Mean DNT decreased from 72.7 min in 2005 to 41.4 min in 2012. Volume of stroke admissions was not an independent predictor for mean thrombolysis rate nor for mean DNT. CONCLUSION: Intravenous thrombolysis rates in the Netherlands more than doubled between 2005 and 2012, in parallel with a large decline in mean DNT. We found no convincing evidence for a relationship between stroke patient volume per hospital and thrombolysis rate or DNT.

Use of surgical-site infection rates to rank hospital performance across several types of surgery.

BACKGROUND: Comparing and ranking hospitals based on health outcomes is becoming increasingly popular, although case-mix differences between hospitals and random variation are known to distort interpretation. The aim of this study was to explore whether surgical-site infection (SSI) rates are suitable for comparing hospitals, taking into account case-mix differences and random variation. METHODS: Data from the national surveillance network in the Netherlands, on the eight most frequently registered types of surgery for the year 2009, were used to calculate SSI rates. The variation in SSI rate between hospitals was estimated with multivariable fixed- and random-effects logistic regression models to account for random variation and case mix. 'Rankability' (as the reliability of ranking) of the SSI rates was calculated by relating within-hospital variation to between-hospital variation. RESULTS: Thirty-four hospitals reported on 13 629 patients, with overall SSI rates per surgical procedure varying between 0 and 15·1 per cent. Statistically significant differences in SSI rate between hospitals were found for colonic resection, caesarean section and for all operations combined. Rankability was 80 per cent for colonic resection but 0 per cent for caesarean section. Rankability was 8 per cent in all operations combined, as the differences in SSI rates were explained mainly by case mix. CONCLUSION: When comparing SSI rates in all operations, differences between hospitals were explained by case mix. For individual types of surgery, case mix varied less between hospitals, and differences were explained largely by random variation. Although SSI rates may be used for monitoring quality improvement within hospitals, they should not be used for ranking hospitals.

Clinical outcome of CIDP one year after start of treatment: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess clinical outcome in treatment-naive patients with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP). METHODS: We included adult treatment-naive patients participating in the prospective International CIDP Outcome Study (ICOS) that fulfilled the European Federation of Neurological Societies/Peripheral Nerve Society (EFNS/PNS) diagnostic criteria for CIDP. Patients were grouped based on initial treatment with (1) intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), (2) corticosteroid monotherapy or (3) IVIg and corticosteroids (combination treatment). Outcome measures included the inflammatory Rasch-built overall disability scale (I-RODS), grip strength, and Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score. Treatment response, treatment status, remissions (improved and untreated), treatment changes, and residual symptoms or deficits were assessed at 1 year. RESULTS: Forty patients were included of whom 18 (45%) initially received IVIg, 6 (15%) corticosteroids, and 16 (40%) combination treatment. Improvement on ≥ 1 of the outcome measures was seen in 31 (78%) patients. At 1 year, 19 (48%) patients were still treated and fourteen (36%) patients were in remission. Improvement was seen most frequently in patients started on IVIg (94%) and remission in those started on combination treatment (44%). Differences between groups did not reach statistical significance. Residual symptoms or deficits ranged from 25% for neuropathic pain to 96% for any sensory deficit. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement was seen in most patients. One year after the start of treatment, more than half of the patients were untreated and around one-third in remission. Residual symptoms and deficits were common regardless of treatment.

Posttransplantation encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis contributes significantly to mortality after kidney transplantation.

Encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS) is a severe complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and may present after kidney transplantation, a condition known as posttransplantation EPS. The prevalence and impact of posttransplantation EPS on survival after kidney transplantation is unknown. From January 1, 1996 until July 1, 2007, 1241 PD patients were transplanted. Thirty-eight cases of posttransplantation EPS (3%) were identified from the Dutch multicenter EPS study. In EPS patients the mean pretransplant dialysis duration was longer than in the controls (71.4 ± 37.5 months vs. 34.7 ± 25.5, p < 0.0001). The majority of EPS cases were observed within the first 2 years after transplantation, but some cases appeared many years after transplantation. Two hundred and one (16.2%) patients died after transplantation, of which 17 were EPS patients. After infection (23.9%), cardiovascular disease (21.9%) and malignancy (10.9%), EPS (8.5%) was the fourth known cause of death after transplantation. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant decreased survival for transplanted patients with posttransplantation EPS compared to transplanted patients without EPS. In conclusion, posttransplantation EPS is rare but carries a high mortality. A prolonged clinical vigilance and a high index of suspicion for the diagnosis are warranted, specifically in PD patients with a relatively long cumulative pretransplant duration of PD.

Process of care partly explains the variation in mortality between hospitals after peripheral vascular surgery.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to investigate whether variation in mortality at hospital level reflects differences in quality of care of peripheral vascular surgery patients. DESIGN: Observational study. MATERIALS: In 11 hospitals in the Netherlands, 711 consecutive vascular surgery patients were enrolled. METHODS: Multilevel logistic regression models were used to relate patient characteristics, structure and process of care to mortality at 1 year. The models were constructed by consecutively adding age, sex and Lee index, then remaining risk factors, followed by structural measures for quality of care and finally, selected process of care parameters. RESULTS: Total 1-year mortality was 11%, ranging from 6% to 26% in different hospitals. Large differences in patient characteristics and quality indicators were observed between hospitals (e.g., age>70 years: 28-58%; beta-blocker therapy: 39-87%). Adjusted analyses showed that a large part of variation in mortality was explained by age, sex and the Lee index (Akaike's information criterion (AIC)=59, p<0.001). Another substantial part of the variation was explained by process of care (AIC=5, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Differences between hospitals exist in patient characteristics, structure of care, process of care and mortality. Even after adjusting for the patient population at risk, a substantial part of the variation in mortality can be explained by differences in process measures of quality of care.

Statin treatment after a recent TIA or stroke: is effectiveness shown in randomized clinical trials also observed in everyday clinical practice?

AIM AND BACKGROUND: The benefit of statin treatment in patients with a previous ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) has been demonstrated in randomized clinical trials (RCT). However, the effectiveness in everyday clinical practice may be decreased because of a different patient population and less controlled setting. We aim to describe statin use in an unselected cohort of patients, identify factors related to statin use and test whether the effect of statins on recurrent vascular events and mortality observed in RCTs is also observed in everyday clinical practice. METHODS: In 10 centers in the Netherlands, patients admitted to the hospital or visiting the outpatient clinic with a recent TIA or ischemic stroke were prospectively and consecutively enrolled between October 2002 and May 2003. Statin use was determined at discharge and during follow-up. We used logistic regression models to estimate the effect of statins on the occurrence of vascular events (stroke or myocardial infarction) and mortality within 3 years. We adjusted for confounders with a propensity score that relates patient characteristics to the probability of using statins. RESULTS: Of the 751 patients in the study, 252 (34%) experienced a vascular event within 3 years. Age, elevated cholesterol levels and other cardiovascular risk factors were associated with statin use at discharge. After 3 years, 109 of 280 (39%) of the users at discharge had stopped using statins. Propensity score adjusted analyses showed a beneficial effect of statins on the occurrence of the primary outcome (odds ratio 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6-1.2). CONCLUSION: In our study, we found poor treatment adherence to statins. Nevertheless, after adjustment for the differences between statin users and non-statin users, the observed beneficial effect of statins on the occurrence of vascular events within 3 years, although not statistically significant, is compatible with the effect observed in clinical trials.

Prediction of 60 day case-fatality after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: results from the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT).

Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is a devastating event with substantial case-fatality. Our purpose was to examine which clinical and neuro-imaging characteristics, available on admission, predict 60 day case-fatality in aSAH and to evaluate performance of our prediction model. We performed a secondary analysis of patients enrolled in the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT), a randomised multicentre trial to compare coiling with clipping in aSAH patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model to estimate the risk of dying within 60 days from aSAH based on clinical and neuro-imaging characteristics. The model was internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. The study population comprised of 2,128 patients who had been randomised to either endovascular coiling or neurosurgical clipping. In this population 153 patients (7.2%) died within 60 days. World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade was the most important predictor of case-fatality, followed by age, lumen size of the aneurysm and Fisher grade. The model discriminated reasonably between those who died within 60 days and those who survived (c statistic = 0.73), with minor optimism according to bootstrap re-sampling (optimism corrected c statistic = 0.70). Several strong predictors are available to predict 60 day case-fatality in aSAH patients who survived the early stage up till a treatment decision; after external validation these predictors could eventually be used in clinical decision making.