Statistical approaches for the integration of external controls in a cystic fibrosis clinical trial: a simulation and an application.

Development of new therapeutics for a rare disease such as cystic fibrosis (CF) is hindered by challenges in accruing enough patients for clinical trials. Using external controls from well-matched historical trials can reduce prospective trial sizes, and this approach has supported regulatory approval of new interventions for other rare diseases. We consider three statistical methods that incorporate external controls into a hypothetical clinical trial of a new treatment to reduce pulmonary exacerbations in CF patients: 1) inverse probability weighting, 2) Bayesian modeling with propensity score-based power priors, and 3) hierarchical Bayesian modeling with commensurate priors. We compare the methods via simulation study and in a real clinical trial data setting. Simulations showed that bias in the treatment effect was <4% using any of the methods, with type 1 error (or in the Bayesian cases, posterior probability of the null hypothesis) usually <5%. Inverse probability weighting was sensitive to similarity in prevalence of the covariates between historical and prospective trial populations. The commensurate prior method performed best with real clinical trial data. Using external controls to reduce trial size in future clinical trials holds promise and can advance the therapeutic pipeline for rare diseases.

Impact of day-to-day variation in FEV1 on measures of change: A conceptual description.

Clinical trials often demonstrate treatment efficacy through change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), comparing single FEV1 measurements from post- versus pre-treatment timepoints. Day-to-day variation in measured FEV1 is common for reasons such as diurnal variation and intermittent health changes, relative to a stable, monthly average. This variation can alter estimation of associations between change in FEV1 and baseline in predictable ways, through a phenomenon called regression to the mean. We quantify and explain day-to-day variation in percent-predicted FEV1 (ppFEV1) from 4 previous trials, and we present a statistical, data-driven explanation for potential bias in ceiling and floor effects due to commonly observed amounts of variation. We recommend accounting for variation when assessing associations between baseline value and change in CF outcomes in single-arm trials, and we consider possible impact of variation on conventional standards for study eligibility.

In vitro modulator responsiveness of 655 CFTR variants found in people with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration initiated expansion of drug labels for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) to include CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene variants based on in vitro functional studies. This study aims to identify CFTR variants that result in increased chloride (Cl-) transport function by the CFTR protein after treatment with the CFTR modulator combination elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor (ELX/TEZ/IVA). These data may benefit people with CF (pwCF) who are not currently eligible for modulator therapies. METHODS: Plasmid DNA encoding 655 CFTR variants and wild-type (WT) CFTR were transfected into Fisher Rat Thyroid cells that do not natively express CFTR. After 24 h of incubation with control or TEZ and ELX, and acute addition of IVA, CFTR function was assessed using the transepithelial current clamp conductance assay. Each variant's forskolin/cAMP-induced baseline Cl- transport activity, responsiveness to IVA alone, and responsiveness to the TEZ/ELX/IVA combination were measured in three different laboratories. Western blots were conducted to evaluate CFTR protein maturation and complement the functional data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: 253 variants not currently approved for CFTR modulator therapy showed low baseline activity (<10 % of normal CFTR Cl- transport activity). For 152 of these variants, treatment with ELX/TEZ/IVA improved the Cl- transport activity by ≥10 % of normal CFTR function, which is suggestive of clinical benefit. ELX/TEZ/IVA increased CFTR function by ≥10 percentage points for an additional 140 unapproved variants with ≥10 % but <50 % of normal CFTR function at baseline. These findings significantly expand the number of rare CFTR variants for which ELX/TEZ/IVA treatment should result in clinical benefit.

Expansion of the HSV-2-specific T cell repertoire in skin after immunotherapeutic HSV-2 vaccine.

The skin at the site of HSV-2 reactivation is enriched for HSV-2-specific T cells. To evaluate whether an immunotherapeutic vaccine could elicit skin-based memory T cells, we studied skin biopsies and HSV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells from PBMCs by T cell receptor (TCR) ß chain (TRB) sequencing before and after vaccination with a replication-incompetent whole-virus HSV-2 vaccine candidate (HSV529). The representation of HSV-2-reactive CD4+ TRB sequences from PBMCs in the skin TRB repertoire increased after the first vaccine dose. We found sustained expansion after vaccination of unique, skin-based T cell clonotypes that were not detected in HSV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells isolated from PBMCs. In one participant, a switch in immunodominance occurred with the emergence of a TCR αß pair after vaccination that was not detected in blood. This TCRαß was shown to be HSV-2 reactive by expression of a synthetic TCR in a Jurkat-based NR4A1 reporter system. The skin in areas of HSV-2 reactivation possessed an oligoclonal TRB repertoire that was distinct from the circulation. Defining the influence of therapeutic vaccination on the HSV-2-specific TRB repertoire requires tissue-based evaluation.

Expansion of the HSV-2-specific T cell repertoire in skin after immunotherapeutic HSV-2 vaccine.

The skin at the site of HSV-2 reactivation is enriched for HSV-2-specific T cells. To evaluate whether an immunotherapeutic vaccine could elicit skin-based memory T cells, we studied skin biopsies and HSV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) by T cell receptor ß (TRB) sequencing before and after vaccination with a replication-incompetent whole virus HSV-2 vaccine candidate (HSV529). The representation of HSV-2-reactive CD4+ TRB sequences from PBMCs in the skin TRB repertoire increased after the first vaccine dose. We found sustained expansion after vaccination of unique, skin-based T-cell clonotypes that were not detected in HSV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells isolated from PBMCs. In one participant a switch in immunodominance occurred with the emergence of a T cell receptor (TCR) αß pair after vaccination that was not detected in blood. This TCRαß was shown to be HSV-2-reactive by expression of a synthetic TCR in a Jurkat-based NR4A1 reporter system. The skin in areas of HSV-2 reactivation possesses an oligoclonal TRB repertoire that is distinct from the circulation. Defining the influence of therapeutic vaccination on the HSV-2-specific TRB repertoire requires tissue-based evaluation.