The present and future burden of previously treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by histology and line of therapy in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain: model-based predictions.

BACKGROUND: The burden of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not well understood, and the number of patients likely to receive treatment in Europe has not been quantified. The aim of this study was to forecast the annual number of patients with squamous and non-squamous advanced NSCLC likely to receive second and third lines of therapy (LOT) from 2016 to 2020 in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. METHODS: A patient count model (PCM) was developed in Microsoft Excel to estimate the number of patients with refractory advanced NSCLC eligible to receive systemic treatment. Using historical population-based cancer registry data, segmented linear regression ("Joinpoint") was used to forecast age- and sex-stratified lung cancer incidence rates in each country through 2020. Yearly incident case count totals by country were apportioned according to NSCLC histology and stage at diagnosis. Country-specific treatment rates came from a recent medical chart review study, and early- to advanced-stage disease progression rates were estimated over a 10-year interval. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed to estimate variability in the patient counts. RESULTS: The combined number of squamous and non-squamous advanced NSCLC patients estimated to receive second and third LOT, respectively, in 2016 were France = 11,600 and 3500; Germany = 15,100 and 4900; Italy = 13,500 and 2500; Spain = 9400 and 2100. The forecasted numbers of patients receiving second and third LOT, respectively, in 2020 were France = 13,900 and 4200; Germany = 16,200 and 5200; Italy = 15,100 and 2600; Spain = 11,000 and 2500. CONCLUSIONS: Driven by growth in the incidence of NSCLC among women, the model forecasts an overall increase in the number of patients with advanced-stage squamous and non-squamous NSCLC likely to receive systemic treatment in the year 2020. The results highlight the significant burden of refractory advanced NSCLC and the need for more robust surveillance data to accurately quantify the burden of disease.

Trends in the prescription of systemic anticancer therapy and mortality among patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a real-world retrospective observational cohort study from the I-O optimise initiative.

OBJECTIVES: To assess how a decade of developments in systematic anticancer therapy (SACT) for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) affected overall survival (OS) in a large UK University Hospital. DESIGN: Real-world retrospective observational cohort study using existing data recorded in electronic medical records. SETTING: A large National Health Service (NHS) university teaching hospital serving 800 000 people living in a diverse metropolitan area of the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 2119 adults diagnosed with advanced NSCLC (tumour, node, metastasis stage IIIB or IV) between 2007 and 2017 at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: OS following diagnosis and the analysis of factors associated with receiving SACT. RESULTS: Median OS for all participants was 2.9 months, increasing for the SACT-treated subcohort from 8.4 months (2007-2012) to 9.1 months (2013-2017) (p=0.02); 1-year OS increased from 33% to 39% over the same period for the SACT-treated group. Median OS for the untreated subcohort was 1.6 months in both time periods. Overall, 30.6% (648/2119) patients received SACT; treatment rates increased from 28.6% (338/1181) in 2007-2012 to 33.0% (310/938) in 2013-2017 (p=0.03). Age and performance status were independent predictors for SACT treatment; advanced age and higher performance status were associated with lower SACT treatment rates. CONCLUSION: Although developments in SACT during 2007-2017 correspond to some changes in survival for treated patients with advanced NSCLC, treatment rates remain low and the prognosis for all patients remains poor.

Costs and Cost Drivers Associated with Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Who Received Two or More Lines of Therapy in Europe.

PURPOSE: Advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (aNSCLC; stage IIIB/IV) presents a substantial clinical burden to society; reliable estimates of its economic burden are lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to quantify real-world health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs of patients with squamous (SQ) and non-SQ (NSQ) aNSCLC who received two or more lines of treatment (2L+) in Europe, and to describe cost-predictors. METHODS: The LENS (Leading the Evaluation of Non-squamous and Squamous NSCLC) retrospective chart review study collected data from 2L+ patients with aNSCLC diagnosed between 07/2009 and 08/2011 (wave 1) or 07/2010 and 09/2012 (wave 2) in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Patients were followed from diagnosis through most recent visit/death. A weighted average of country-specific unit costs (2018 Euro) was applied to systemic anti-cancer therapy usage and HCRU (hospital/emergency department visit, surgery, radiotherapy, ancillary care, biomarker testing) to determine the total cost from aNSCLC diagnosis to death. Generalized linear models (gamma distribution, log link) were used to assess clinical and demographic predictors. RESULTS: Of 973 2L+ aNSCLC patients, median overall survival (OS) was 1.5 years from advanced diagnosis (range: 0.2-5.3; median OS: 1.4 [SQ], 1.6 [NSQ]), 79.0% died during follow-up. Weighted mean total per-patient costs were €21,273, ranging from €17,761 (England) to €30,854 (Sweden), and €15,446 (SQ) to €26,477 (NSQ). Systemic drug costs comprised 77.4% of total costs. Insurance status, presence of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation, SQ histology, age, alcohol abuse, and year of diagnosis were significant predictors for lower total costs per patient-month, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥1 and country for higher costs. CONCLUSION: In the era pre-immunotherapy, HCRU and costs were substantial in aNSCLC 2L+ patients, with most of the costs accrued prior to start of 2L. NSQ patients incurred significantly higher total costs than SQ patients in all participating countries.