Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium. METHODS: Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Contrasting Carbohydrate Quantity and Quality and the Effects on Plasma Saturated and Monounsaturated Fatty Acids in Healthy Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether moderate differences in dietary carbohydrate quantity and quality influence plasma FAs in the lipogenic pathway in healthy adults. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of different carbohydrate quantities and quality on plasma palmitate concentrations (primary outcome) and other saturated and MUFAs in the lipogenic pathway. METHODS: Twenty healthy participants were randomly assigned, and 18 (50% women; age: 22-72 y; BMI: 18.2-32.7 kg/m2 and BMI was measured in kg/m2) started the cross-over intervention. During each 3-wk period (separated by a 1-wk washout period), 3 diets were consumed (all foods provided) in random order: low-carbohydrate (LC) (38% energy (E) carbohydrates, 25-35 g fiber/d, 0% E added sugars); high-carbohydrate/high-fiber (HCF) (53% E carbohydrates, 25-35 g fiber/d, 0% E added sugars); and high-carbohydrate/high-sugar (HCS) (53% E carbohydrates, 19-21 g fiber/d, 15% E added sugars). Individual FAs were measured proportionally to total FAs by GC in plasma cholesteryl esters, phospholipids, and TGs. False discovery rate-adjusted repeated measures ANOVA [ANOVA-false discovery rate (FDR)] was used to compare outcomes. RESULTS: The self-reported intakes of carbohydrates and added- and free sugars were; 30.6% E and 7.4% E in LC, 41.4% E and 6.9% E in HCF, and 45.7% E and 10.3% in HCS. Plasma palmitate did not differ between the diet periods (ANOVA FDR P > 0.43, n = 18). After HCS, myristate concentrations in cholesterol esters and phospholipids were ≥19% higher than LC and ≥22% higher than HCF (P = 0.005). After LC, palmitoleate in TG was 6% lower compared with HCF and 7% compared with HCS (P = 0.041). Body weight differed (≤0.75 kg) between diets before FDR correction. CONCLUSIONS: Different carbohydrate quantity and quality do not influence plasma palmitate concentrations after 3 wk in healthy Swedish adults, whereas myristate increased after the moderately higher intake of carbohydrate/high-sugar, but not carbohydrate/high-fiber. Whether plasma myristate is more responsive than palmitate to differences in carbohydrate intake requires further study, especially considering that participants deviated from the planned dietary targets. J Nutr 20XX;xx:xx-xx. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03295448.

The Effect of Retail Food Environment Interventions on Dietary Behavior in Postsecondary Education Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Postsecondary education institutions, where hundreds of millions of people work and study globally, are a key setting for retail food environment interventions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to synthesize the evidence for the effectiveness of retail food environment interventions in improving the healthiness of dietary behavior of students and staff in postsecondary education settings. METHODS: Academic databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies published until August 2023. Studies were eligible if they assessed the impact of a retail food environment intervention on healthiness of dietary behavior (purchases or consumption) in students or staff in postsecondary education settings and targeted one of the following food environment elements: placement, price, product, or promotion. Business-related outcomes (total sales, profit, or revenue) were included as secondary outcomes. Findings were synthesized in narrative form, organized by retail food environment element. Where comparable dietary outcome data were available from ≥10 interventions, findings were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 10,126 studies initially identified, 55 (76% quasi-experimental) were included, describing 71 separate interventions (n = 49 single-element and n = 22 multi-element). Two-thirds (n = 47, 66%) of interventions (n = 32 single-element and n = 15 multi-element) demonstrated significant improvements in dietary behavior. Single-element interventions targeting placement (n = 1) and price (n = 3) improved dietary behavior. Most (n = 9/10, 90%) interventions targeting product availability or convenience (product element) improved dietary behavior, while n = 19/35 (54%) targeting promotion did. Pooled findings from 12 interventions reporting changes in energy content demonstrated a significant decrease in purchased or consumed energy (-7.9%; 95% confidence interval: -10.3%, -5.6%). Almost all interventions (n = 11/12, 92%) that evaluated the impact on business-related outcomes found either a significant increase or no change following the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: We established encouraging evidence supporting the role of retail food environment interventions in postsecondary education settings to support healthy dietary behaviors of students and staff. REGISTRY: PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=295836; registration number CRD42022295836).

Packaged foods purchased on price promotion in Australia.

We examined the prevalence and magnitude of price promotions among purchases of packaged foods and beverages in Australia, as well as the contribution of price-promoted foods and beverages to apparent energy intake. We utilized grocery purchase data from a nationally representative panel of 10 000 households in 2019 (NielsenIQ Homescan panel), combined with a food nutrition dataset (FoodSwitch). Nutritional quality was defined using the Australian and New Zealand Health Star Rating (HSR), where products with an HSR <3.5 were classified as 'less healthy' and products with an HSR ≥3.5 were classified as 'healthy'. Apparent energy intake was expressed as the total energy content of all purchased products per day per capita. Price promotions were claimed by panel members. Overall, four-in-ten packaged products (41%) were purchased on price promotion. Compared to 'healthy' products, 'less healthy' products were more frequently purchased on price promotion (33% vs 48%, respectively, p < 0.001), but had a similar mean magnitude of price discount (both 22%). Low socio-economic status (SES) households consumed 18% more energy from 'less healthy' packaged products on price promotion than high SES households (1141 vs 970 kJ/day/capita, p < 0.001). In conclusion, restricting price promotions for 'less healthy' packaged foods and beverages could potentially improve diet quality and dietary inequalities in Australia.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

Socio-economic difference in purchases of ultra-processed foods in Australia: an analysis of a nationally representative household grocery purchasing panel.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with increased risk of obesity and non-communicable diseases. Little is known about current patterns of ultra-processed foods intake in Australia. The aim of this study was to examine the amount and type of ultra-processed foods purchased by Australian households in 2019 and determine whether purchases differed by socio-economic status (SES). We also assessed whether purchases of ultra-processed foods changed between 2015 and 2019.  METHODS: We used grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel in Australia to assess packaged and unpackaged grocery purchases that were brought home between 2015 to 2019. Ultra-processed foods were identified according to the NOVA system, which classifies foods according to the nature, extent and purpose of industrial food processing. Purchases of ultra-processed foods were calculated per capita, using two outcomes: grams/day and percent of total energy. The top food categories contributing to purchases of ultra-processed foods in 2019 were identified, and differences in ultra-processed food purchases by SES (Index of Relative Social Advantage and Disadvantage) were assessed using survey-weighted linear regression. Changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods between 2015 to 2019 were examined overall and by SES using mixed linear models. RESULTS: In 2019, the mean ± SD total grocery purchases made by Australian households was 881.1 ± 511.9 g/d per capita. Of this, 424.2 ± 319.0 g/d per capita was attributable to purchases of ultra-processed foods, which represented 56.4% of total energy purchased. The largest food categories contributing to total energy purchased included mass-produced, packaged breads (8.2% of total energy purchased), chocolate and sweets (5.7%), biscuits and crackers (5.7%) and ice-cream and edible ices (4.3%). In 2019, purchases of ultra-processed foods were significantly higher for the lowest SES households compared to all other SES quintiles (P < 0.001). There were no major changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods overall or by SES over the five-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2015 and 2019, ultra-processed foods have consistently made up the majority of groceries purchased by Australians, particularly for the lowest SES households. Policies that reduce ultra-processed food consumption may reduce diet-related health inequalities.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries.

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average

En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de

Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Volume, Tiered, and Absolute Sugar Content Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction. METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans. CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.

The estimated health impact of sodium reduction through food reformulation in Australia: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The Australian Government recently established sodium targets for packaged foods to encourage voluntary reformulation to reduce population sodium consumption and related diseases. We modeled the health impact of Australia's sodium reformulation targets and additional likely health gains if more ambitious, yet feasible sodium targets had been adopted instead. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using comparative risk assessment models, we estimated the averted deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and stomach cancer after implementation of (a) Australia's sodium targets (overall and by individual companies); (b) United Kingdom's targets (that covers more product categories); and (c) an optimistic scenario (sales-weighted 25th percentile sodium content for each food category included in the UK program). We used nationally representative data to estimate pre- and post-intervention sodium intake, and other key data sources from the Global Burden of Disease study. Full compliance with the Australian government's sodium targets could prevent approximately 510 deaths/year (95% UI, 335 to 757), corresponding to about 1% of CVD, CKD, and stomach cancer deaths, and prevent some 1,920 (1,274 to 2,600) new cases and 7,240 (5,138 to 10,008) DALYs/year attributable to these diseases. Over half (59%) of deaths prevented is attributed to reformulation by 5 market-dominant companies. Compliance with the UK and optimistic scenario could avert approximately an additional 660 (207 to 1,227) and 1,070 (511 to 1,856) deaths/year, respectively, compared to Australia's targets. The main limitation of this study (like other modeling studies) is that it does not prove that sodium reformulation programs will prevent deaths and disease events; rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and the corresponding uncertainty of the potential effect of the different programs to guide the design of policies. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant potential to strengthen Australia's sodium reformulation targets to improve its health impact. Promoting compliance by market-dominant food companies will be critical to achieving the potential health gains.

Biomarkers of dairy fat intake, incident cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: A cohort study, systematic review, and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the association of serum pentadecanoic acid (15:0), a biomarker of dairy fat intake, with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a Swedish cohort study. We also systematically reviewed studies of the association of dairy fat biomarkers (circulating or adipose tissue levels of 15:0, heptadecanoic acid [17:0], and trans-palmitoleic acid [t16:1n-7]) with CVD outcomes or all-cause mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We measured 15:0 in serum cholesterol esters at baseline in 4,150 Swedish adults (51% female, median age 60.5 years). During a median follow-up of 16.6 years, 578 incident CVD events and 676 deaths were identified using Swedish registers. In multivariable-adjusted models, higher 15:0 was associated with lower incident CVD risk in a linear dose-response manner (hazard ratio 0.75 per interquintile range; 95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.93, P = 0.009) and nonlinearly with all-cause mortality (P for nonlinearity = 0.03), with a nadir of mortality risk around median 15:0. In meta-analyses including our Swedish cohort and 17 cohort, case-cohort, or nested case-control studies, higher 15:0 and 17:0 but not t16:1n-7 were inversely associated with total CVD, with the relative risk of highest versus lowest tertile being 0.88 (0.78, 0.99), 0.86 (0.79, 0.93), and 1.01 (0.91, 1.12), respectively. Dairy fat biomarkers were not associated with all-cause mortality in meta-analyses, although there were ≤3 studies for each biomarker. Study limitations include the inability of the biomarkers to distinguish different types of dairy foods and that most studies in the meta-analyses (including our novel cohort study) only assessed biomarkers at baseline, which may increase the risk of misclassification of exposure levels. CONCLUSIONS: In a meta-analysis of 18 observational studies including our new cohort study, higher levels of 15:0 and 17:0 were associated with lower CVD risk. Our findings support the need for clinical and experimental studies to elucidate the causality of these relationships and relevant biological mechanisms.

Estimating the potential impact of the Australian government's reformulation targets on household sugar purchases.

BACKGROUND: Countries around the world are putting in place sugar reformulation targets for packaged foods to reduce excess sugar consumption. The Australian government released its voluntary sugar reformulation targets for nine food categories in 2020. We estimated the potential impact of these targets on household sugar purchases and examined differences by income. For comparison, we also modelled the potential impact of the UK sugar reduction targets on per capita sugar purchases as the UK has one of the most comprehensive sugar reduction strategies in the world. METHODS: Grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel (n=7,188) in Australia was linked with a large database (FoodSwitch) with product-specific sugar content information for packaged foods (n=25,261); both datasets were collected in 2018. Potential reductions in per capita sugar purchases were calculated overall and by food category. Differences in sugar reduction across income level were assessed by analysis of variance. RESULTS: In 2018, the total sugar acquired from packaged food and beverage purchases consumed at-home was 56.1 g/day per capita. Australia's voluntary reformulation targets for sugar covered 2,471/25,261 (9.8%) unique products in the FoodSwitch dataset. Under the scenario that all food companies adhered to the voluntary targets, sugar purchases were estimated to be reduced by 0.9 g/day per capita, which represents a 1.5% reduction in sugar purchased from packaged foods. However, if Australia adopted the UK targets, over twice as many products would be covered (n=4,667), and this would result in a more than four times greater reduction in sugar purchases (4.1 g/day per capita). It was also estimated that if all food companies complied with Australia's voluntary sugar targets, reductions to sugar would be slightly greater in low-income households compared with high-income households by 0.3 g/day (95%CI 0.2 - 0.4 g/day, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Sugar-reduction policies have the potential to substantially reduce population sugar consumption and may help to reduce health inequalities related to excess sugar consumption. However, the current reformulation targets in Australia are estimated to achieve only a small reduction to sugar intakes, particularly in comparison to the UK's sugar reduction program.

Biomarkers of Dietary Omega-6 Fatty Acids and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Global dietary recommendations for and cardiovascular effects of linoleic acid, the major dietary omega-6 fatty acid, and its major metabolite, arachidonic acid, remain controversial. To address this uncertainty and inform international recommendations, we evaluated how in vivo circulating and tissue levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) relate to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across multiple international studies. METHODS: We performed harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses in a global consortium of 30 prospective observational studies from 13 countries. Multivariable-adjusted associations of circulating and adipose tissue LA and AA biomarkers with incident total CVD and subtypes (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality) were investigated according to a prespecified analytic plan. Levels of LA and AA, measured as the percentage of total fatty acids, were evaluated linearly according to their interquintile range (ie, the range between the midpoint of the first and fifth quintiles), and categorically by quintiles. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, statin use, aspirin use, omega-3 levels, and fatty acid desaturase 1 genotype (when available). RESULTS: In 30 prospective studies with medians of follow-up ranging 2.5 to 31.9 years, 15 198 incident cardiovascular events occurred among 68 659 participants. Higher levels of LA were significantly associated with lower risks of total CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and ischemic stroke, with hazard ratios per interquintile range of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), 0.78 (0.70-0.85), and 0.88 (0.79-0.98), respectively, and nonsignificantly with lower coronary heart disease risk (0.94; 0.88-1.00). Relationships were similar for LA evaluated across quintiles. AA levels were not associated with higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes; in a comparison of extreme quintiles, higher levels were associated with lower risk of total CVD (0.92; 0.86-0.99). No consistent heterogeneity by population subgroups was identified in the observed relationships. CONCLUSIONS: In pooled global analyses, higher in vivo circulating and tissue levels of LA and possibly AA were associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events. These results support a favorable role for LA in CVD prevention.

Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Australia: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: trans-fatty acids (TFAs) are a well-known risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD). In Australia, the highest TFA intake is concentrated to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Elimination of industrial TFA (iTFA) from the Australian food supply could result in reduced IHD mortality and morbidity while improving health equity. However, such legislation could lead to additional costs for both government and food industry. Thus, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and effects on health equality of an iTFA ban from the Australian food supply. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Markov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden and health equity, as well as the cost-effectiveness of a national ban of iTFA in Australia. Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011-2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution with a mean of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from nonindustrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Policy costs, avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and changes in IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the adult Australian population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using net policy cost and HALYs gained. Health benefits and healthcare cost changes were also assessed in subgroups based on socioeconomic status, defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Compared to a base case of no ban and current TFA intakes, elimination of iTFA was estimated to prevent 2,294 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,765; 2,851) IHD deaths and 9,931 (95% UI: 8,429; 11,532) IHD events over the first 10 years. The greatest health benefits were accrued to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles and among Australians living outside of major cities. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving (net cost <0 AUD) or cost-effective (i.e., ICER < AUD 169,361/HALY) regardless of the time horizon, with ICERs of 1,073 (95% UI: dominant; 3,503) and 1,956 (95% UI: 1,010; 2,750) AUD/HALY over 10 years and lifetime, respectively. Findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Key limitations of the study include the lack of recent data of TFA intake and the small sample sizes used to estimate intakes in subgroups. As with all simulation models, our study does not prove that a ban of iTFA will prevent IHD, rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and corresponding uncertainty of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our model estimates that a ban of iTFAs could avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Australia and would likely be a highly cost-effective strategy to reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in health. These findings suggest that elimination of iTFA can cost-effectively improve health and health equality even in countries with low iTFA intake.

Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and incidence of type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Seventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970-1973 to 2006-2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3-75.5 years; % women = 20.4%-62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41-1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33-1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05-1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07-1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%-73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D.

Interim effects of salt substitution on urinary electrolytes and blood pressure in the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS).

The Salt Substitute and Stroke Study is an ongoing 5-year large-scale cluster randomized trial investigating the effects of potassium-enriched salt substitute compared to usual salt on the risk of stroke. The study involves 600 villages and 20,996 individuals in rural China. Intermediate risk markers were measured in a random subsample of villages every 12 months over 3 years to track progress against key assumptions underlying study design. Measures of 24-hour urinary sodium, 24-hour urinary potassium, blood pressure and participants' use of salt substitute were recorded, with differences between intervention and control groups estimated using generalized linear mixed models. The primary outcome of annual event rate in the two groups combined was determined by dividing confirmed fatal and non-fatal strokes by total follow-up time in the first 2 years. The mean differences (95% CI) were -0.32 g (-0.68 to 0.05) for 24-hour urinary sodium, +0.77 g (+0.60 to +0.93) for 24-hour urinary potassium, -2.65 mmHg (-4.32 to -0.97) for systolic blood pressure and +0.30 mmHg (-0.72 to +1.32) for diastolic blood pressure. Use of salt substitute was reported by 97.5% in the intervention group versus 4.2% in the control group (P<.0001). The overall estimated annual event rate for fatal and non-fatal stroke was 3.2%. The systolic blood pressure difference and the annual stroke rate were both in line with the statistical assumptions underlying study design. The trial should be well placed to address the primary hypothesis at completion of follow-up.

Correction to: Contribution of major food companies and their products to household dietary sodium purchases in Australia.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Contribution of major food companies and their products to household dietary sodium purchases in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The Australian federal government will soon release voluntary sodium reduction targets for 30 packaged food categories through the Healthy Food Partnership. Previous assessments of voluntary targets show variable industry engagement, and little is known about the extent that major food companies and their products contribute to dietary sodium purchases among Australian households. METHODS: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the relative contribution that food companies and their products made to Australian household sodium purchases in 2018, and to examine differences in sodium purchases by household income level. We used 1 year of grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel of Australian households who reported their grocery purchases (the Nielsen Homescan panel), combined with database that contains product-specific sodium content for packaged foods and beverages (FoodSwitch). The top food companies and food categories were ranked according to their contribution to household sodium purchases. Differences in per capita sodium purchases by income levels were assessed by 1-factor ANOVA. All analyses were modelled to the Australian population in 2018 using sample weights. RESULTS: Sodium data were available from 7188 households who purchased 26,728 unique products and purchased just under 7.5 million food product units. Out of 1329 food companies, the top 10 accounted for 35% of unique products and contributed to 58% of all sodium purchased from packaged foods and beverages. The top three companies were grocery food retailers each contributing 12-15% of sodium purchases from sales of their private label products, particularly processed meat, cheese and bread. Out of the 67 food categories, the top 10 accounted for 73% of sodium purchased, particularly driven by purchases of processed meat (14%), bread (12%) and sauces (11%). Low-income Australian households purchased significantly more sodium from packaged products than high-income households per capita (452 mg/d, 95%CI: 363-540 mg/d, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A small number of food companies and food categories account for most of the dietary sodium purchased by Australian households. Prioritizing government engagement with these groups could deliver a large reduction in population sodium intake.

Association between carbohydrate intake and fatty acids in the de novo lipogenic pathway in serum phospholipids and adipose tissue in a population of Swedish men.

PURPOSE: Fatty acid composition in blood and adipose tissue (AT) is a useful biomarker of dietary fat quality. However, circulating saturated fatty acids (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) have been proposed to also reflect carbohydrate-induced de novo lipogenesis (DNL) and stearoyl-CoA desaturase (SCD) activity. We aimed to test the hypothesis that high carbohydrate intake is related to SFA and MUFA in serum or AT in a Swedish population. METHODS: Fatty acid composition was measured in serum phospholipids (PL) and AT by gas chromatography in 63-year-old men (n = 299). Carbohydrate and alcohol intake was assessed (validated 7-day food records) in relation to total SFA, 16:0 (palmitate), 16:1 (palmitoleate), and estimated SCD activity (16:1n-7/16:0-ratio) in serum PL and in AT, respectively. RESULTS: Total carbohydrate intake was inversely associated with 16:0 in PL (P = 0.005), independently of BMI. Disaccharides were non-linearly (restricted cubic splines) and weakly associated with 16:1 and SCD activity in PL (nonlinear trend, P ≤ 0.02) but not AT. Carbohydrate intake and SCD expression were not associated (P ≥ 0.08, n = 81). Alcohol intake was, however, linearly associated with 16:0 in PL (P < 0.001), and with 16:1 (P < 0.001) and SCD activity (P ≤ 0.005) in both PL and AT. CONCLUSIONS: Higher carbohydrate intake from sugar-rich foods or beverages was not clearly reflected by higher SFA or SCD activity in serum PL or AT. Alcohol was, however, associated with higher SFA and MUFA.

Fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate prospective associations of circulating or adipose tissue odd-chain fatty acids 15:0 and 17:0 and trans-palmitoleic acid, t16:1n-7, as potential biomarkers of dairy fat intake, with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Sixteen prospective cohorts from 12 countries (7 from the United States, 7 from Europe, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan) performed new harmonised individual-level analysis for the prospective associations according to a standardised plan. In total, 63,682 participants with a broad range of baseline ages and BMIs and 15,180 incident cases of T2D over the average of 9 years of follow-up were evaluated. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Prespecified interactions by age, sex, BMI, and race/ethnicity were explored in each cohort and were meta-analysed. Potential heterogeneity by cohort-specific characteristics (regions, lipid compartments used for fatty acid assays) was assessed with metaregression. After adjustment for potential confounders, including measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) and lipogenesis (levels of palmitate, triglycerides), higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with lower incidence of T2D. In the most adjusted model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per cohort-specific 10th to 90th percentile range of 15:0 was 0.80 (0.73-0.87); of 17:0, 0.65 (0.59-0.72); of t16:1n7, 0.82 (0.70-0.96); and of their sum, 0.71 (0.63-0.79). In exploratory analyses, similar associations for 15:0, 17:0, and the sum of all three fatty acids were present in both genders but stronger in women than in men (pinteraction < 0.001). Whereas studying associations with biomarkers has several advantages, as limitations, the biomarkers do not distinguish between different food sources of dairy fat (e.g., cheese, yogurt, milk), and residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders may exist. CONCLUSIONS: In a large meta-analysis that pooled the findings from 16 prospective cohort studies, higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with a lower risk of T2D.