Retrospective insights of the COVID-19 epidemic in the major latin American city, São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil

São Paulo is the financial center of Brazil, with a population of over 12 million, that receives travelers from all over the world for business and tourism. It was the first city in Brazil to report a case of COVID-19 that rapidly spread across the city despite the implementation of the restriction measures. Despite many reports, much is still unknown regarding the genomic diversity and transmission dynamics of this virus in the city of São Paulo. Thus, in this study, we provide a retrospective overview of the COVID-19 epidemic in São Paulo City, Southeastern, Brazil, by generating a total of 9995 near-complete genome sequences from all the city’s different macro-regions (North, West, Central, East, South, and Southeast). Our analysis revealed that multiple independent introduction events of different variants (mainly Gamma, Delta, and Omicron) occurred throughout time. Additionally, our estimates of viral movement within the different macro-regions further suggested that the East and the Southeast regions were the largest contributors to the Gamma and Delta viral exchanges to other regions. Meanwhile, the North region had a higher contribution to the dispersion of the Omicron variant. Together, our results reinforce the importance of increasing SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring within the city and the country to track the real-time evolution of the virus and to detect earlier any eventual emergency of new variants of concern that could undermine the fight against COVID-19 in Brazil and worldwide.

Mayaro virus infection, the next epidemic wave after Zika? Evolutionary and structural analysis

Objective: To evaluate the evolution of the pathogen Mayaro virus, causing Mayaro fever (a mosquito-borne disease) and to perform selective pressure analysis and homology modelling. Methods: Nine different datasets were built, one for each protein (from protein C to non-structural protein 4) and the last one for the complete genome. Selective pressure and homology modelling analyses were applied. Results: Two main clades (A and B) were pointed in the maximum likelihood tree. The clade A included five Brazilian sequences sampled from 1955 to 2015. The Brazilian sequence sampled in 2014 significantly clustered with the Haitian sequence sampled in 2015. The clade B included the remaining 27 sequences sampled in the Central and Southern America from 1957 to 2013. Selective pressure analysis revealed several sites under episodic diversifying selection in envelope surface glycoprotein E1, non-structural protein 1 and non- structural protein 3 with a posterior probability P≤0.01. Homology modelling showed different sites modified by selective pressure and some protein-protein interaction sites at high interaction propensity. Conclusion: Maximum likelihood analysis confirmed the Mayaro virus previous circulation in Haiti and the successful spread to the Caribbean and USA. Selective pressure analysis revealed a strong presence of negatively selected sites, suggesting a probable purging of deleterious polymorphisms in functional genes. Homology model showed the position 31, under selective pressure, located in the edge of the ADP-ribose binding site predicting to possess a high potential of protein-protein interaction and suggesting the possible chance for a protective vaccine, thus preventing Mayaro virus urbanization as with Chikungunya virus.

Mayaro virus infection, the next epidemic wave after Zika? Evolutionary and structural analysis

Objective:To evaluate the evolution of the pathogen Mayaro virus, causing Mayaro fever (a mosquito-borne disease) and to perform selective pressure analysis and homology modelling.Methods:Nine different datasets were built, one for each protein (from protein C to non-structural protein 4) and the last one for the complete genome. Selective pressure and homology modelling analyses were applied.Results:Two main clades (A and B) were pointed in the maximum likelihood tree. The clade A included five Brazilian sequences sampled from 1955 to 2015. The Brazilian sequence sampled in 2014 significantly clustered with the Haitian sequence sampled in 2015. The clade B included the remaining 27 sequences sampled in the Central and Southern America from 1957 to 2013. Selective pressure analysis revealed several sites under episodic diversifying selection in envelope surface glycoprotein E1, non-structural protein 1 and non- structural protein 3 with a posterior probability P≤0.01. Homology modelling showed different sites modified by selective pressure and some protein-protein interaction sites at high interaction propensity.Conclusion:Maximum likelihood analysis confirmed the Mayaro virus previous circulation in Haiti and the successful spread to the Caribbean and USA. Selective pressure analysis revealed a strong presence of negatively selected sites, suggesting a probable purging of deleterious polymorphisms in functional genes. Homology model showed the position 31, under selective pressure, located in the edge of the ADP-ribose binding site predicting to possess a high potential of protein-protein interaction and suggesting the possible chance for a protective vaccine, thus preventing Mayaro virus urbanization as with Chikungunya virus.

Zika Virus spreading in South America: Evolutionary analysis of emerging neutralizing resistant Phe279Ser strains

Objective To investigate the genetic diversity of Zika Virus (ZIKV) and the relationships existing among these circulating viruses worldwide. To evaluate the genetic polymorphisms harbored from ZIKV that can have an influence on the virus circulation. Methods Three different ZIKV dataset were built. The first dataset included 63 E gene sequences, the second one 22 NS3 sequences and the third dataset was composed of 108 NS5 gene sequences. Phylogenetic and selective pressure analysis was performed. The edited nucleic acid alignment from the Envelope dataset was used to generate a conceptual translation to the corresponding peptide sequences through UGene software. Results The phylogeographic reconstruction was able to discriminate unambiguously that the Brazilian strains are belonged to the Asian lineage. The structural analysis reveals instead the presence of the Ser residue in the Brazilian sequences (however already observed in other previously reported ZIKV infections) that could suggest the presence of a neutralization-resistant population of viruses. Conclusions Phylogenetic, evolutionary and selective pressure analysis contributed to improve the knowledge on the circulation of ZIKV.

Phylogeny of Murray Valley encephalitis virus in Australia and Papua New Guinea

Objective: To study the genetic diversity of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) in Australia and Papua New Guinea. Methods: MVEV envelope gene sequences were aligned using Clustal X and manual editing was performed with Bioedit. ModelTest v. 3.7 was used to select the simplest evolutionary model that adequately fitted the sequence data. Maximum likelihood analysis was performed using PhyML. The phylogenetic signal of the dataset was investigated by the likelihood mapping analysis. The Bayesian phylogenetic tree was built using BEAST. Results: The phylogenetic trees showed two main clades. The clade I including eight strains isolated from West Australia. The clade II was characterized by at least four epidemic entries, three of which localized in Northern West Australia and one in Papua New Guinea. The estimated mean evolutionary rate value of the MVEV envelope gene was 0.407 × 10

Genetic diversity in Ebola virus: Phylogenetic and in silico structural studies of Ebola viral proteins

Objective: To explore the genetic diversity and the modification of antibody response in the recent outbreak of Ebola Virus. Methods: Sequences retrieved from public databases, the selective pressure analysis and the homology modeling based on the all protein (nucleoprotein, VP35, VP40, soluble glycoprotein, small soluble glycoprotein, VP30, VP24 and polymerase) were used. Results: Structural proteins VP24, VP30, VP35 and VP40 showed relative conserved sequences making them suitable target candidates for antiviral treatment. On the contrary, nucleoprotein, polymerase and soluble glycoprotein have high mutation frequency. Conclusions: Data from this study point out important aspects of Ebola virus sequence variability that for epitope and vaccine design should be considered for appropriate targeting of conserved protein regions.

Phylogeny of Murray Valley encephalitis virus in Australia and Papua New Guinea

OBJECTIVE@#To study the genetic diversity of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) in Australia and Papua New Guinea.@*METHODS@#MVEV envelope gene sequences were aligned using Clustal X and manual editing was performed with Bioedit. ModelTest v. 3.7 was used to select the simplest evolutionary model that adequately fitted the sequence data. Maximum likelihood analysis was performed using PhyML. The phylogenetic signal of the dataset was investigated by the likelihood mapping analysis. The Bayesian phylogenetic tree was built using BEAST.@*RESULTS@#The phylogenetic trees showed two main clades. The clade Ⅰ including eight strains isolated from West Australia. The clade Ⅱ was characterized by at least four epidemic entries, three of which localized in Northern West Australia and one in Papua New Guinea. The estimated mean evolutionary rate value of the MVEV envelope gene was 0.407 × 10(-3) substitution/site/year (95% HPD: 0.623 × 10(-4)-0.780 × 10(-3)). Population dynamics defines a relative constant population until the year 2000, when a reduction occurred, probably due to a bottleneck.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This study has been useful in supporting the probable connection between climate changes and viral evolution also by the vector point of view; multidisciplinary monitoring studies are important to prevent new viral epidemics inside and outside new endemic areas.

Genetic diversity in Ebola virus: Phylogenetic and in silico structural studies of Ebola viral proteins

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the genetic diversity and the modification of antibody response in the recent outbreak of Ebola Virus.@*METHODS@#Sequences retrieved from public databases, the selective pressure analysis and the homology modeling based on the all protein (nucleoprotein, VP35, VP40, soluble glycoprotein, small soluble glycoprotein, VP30, VP24 and polymerase) were used.@*RESULTS@#Structural proteins VP24, VP30, VP35 and VP40 showed relative conserved sequences making them suitable target candidates for antiviral treatment. On the contrary, nucleoprotein, polymerase and soluble glycoprotein have high mutation frequency.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Data from this study point out important aspects of Ebola virus sequence variability that for epitope and vaccine design should be considered for appropriate targeting of conserved protein regions.

Zika Virus spreading in South America: Evolutionary analysis of emerging neutralizing resistant Phe279Ser strains

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the genetic diversity of Zika Virus (ZIKV) and the relationships existing among these circulating viruses worldwide. To evaluate the genetic polymorphisms harbored from ZIKV that can have an influence on the virus circulation.@*METHODS@#Three different ZIKV dataset were built. The first dataset included 63 E gene sequences, the second one 22 NS3 sequences and the third dataset was composed of 108 NS5 gene sequences. Phylogenetic and selective pressure analysis was performed. The edited nucleic acid alignment from the Envelope dataset was used to generate a conceptual translation to the corresponding peptide sequences through UGene software.@*RESULTS@#The phylogeographic reconstruction was able to discriminate unambiguously that the Brazilian strains are belonged to the Asian lineage. The structural analysis reveals instead the presence of the Ser residue in the Brazilian sequences (however already observed in other previously reported ZIKV infections) that could suggest the presence of a neutralization-resistant population of viruses.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Phylogenetic, evolutionary and selective pressure analysis contributed to improve the knowledge on the circulation of ZIKV.

The 2019-new Coronavirus epidemic: evidence for virus evolution

There is concern about a new coronavirus, the 2019-nCoV, as a global public health threat. In this article, we provide a preliminary evolutionary and molecular epidemiological analysis of this new virus. A phylogenetic tree has been built using the 15 available whole genome sequence of 2019-nCoV and 12 whole genome sequences highly similar sequences available in gene bank (5 from SARS, 2 from MERS and 5 from Bat SARS-like Coronavirus). FUBAR analysis shows that the Nucleocapsid and the Spike Glycoprotein has some sites under positive pressure while homology modelling helped to explain some molecular and structural differences between the viruses. The phylogenetic tree showed that 2019.nCoV significantly clustered with Bat SARS-like Coronavirus sequence isolated in 2015, whereas structural analysis revealed mutation in S and nucleocapsid proteins. From these results, 2019nCoV could be considered a coronavirus distinct from SARS virus, probably transmitted from bats or another host where mutations conferred upon it the ability to infect humans.

Phylogenetic analysis and in silico studies link spike Q675H mutation to SARS-CoV-2 adaptive evolution

Genotype screening was implemented in Italy and showed a significant prevalence of new SARS-CoV-2 mutants carrying Q675H mutation, near the furin cleavage site of spike protein. Currently, this mutation, which is expressed on different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating worldwide, has not been thoughtfully investigated. Therefore, we performed phylogenetic and biocomputational analysis to better understand SARS-CoV-2 Q675H mutants evolutionary relationships with other circulating lineages and Q675H function in its molecular context. Our studies reveal that Q675H spike mutation is the result of parallel evolution because it arose independently in separate evolutionary clades. In silico data show that the Q675H mutation gives rise to a hydrogen-bonds network in the spike polar region delimiting the conformational space of the highly flexible loop containing the furin cleavage site. This results in an optimized directionality of arginine residues involved in interaction of spike with the furin binding pocket, thus improving proteolytic exposure of the viral protein. Furin was found to have a greater affinity for Q675H than Q675 substrate conformations. As a consequence, Q675H mutation is likely to confer a fitness advantage to SARS-CoV-2 by promoting a more efficient viral entry. Interestingly, here we show an ongoing increase in the occurrence of Q675H spike mutation in the most common SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC). This finding highlights that, VOC are still evolving and start acquiring the Q675H mutation. At the same time, it suggests that our hypothesis of fitness advantage prompted by Q675H could be concrete.

Genomic monitoring unveils a high prevalence of SARS-CoV 2 Omicron Variant in vaccine breakthrough cases in Bahia, Brazil

Genome sequencing proved to be an excellent tool to monitor the molecular epidemiology of the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, i.e., coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Some reports of infected, vaccinated individuals have aroused great interest because they are primarily being infected with circulating variants of concern (VOCs). To investigate the cases of infected, vaccinated individuals in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, we performed genomic monitoring to estimate the magnitude of the different VOCs in these cases. Nasopharyngeal swabs from infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic), fully vaccinated individuals (n=29) who were of varying age and had RT-qPCR Ct values of [≤]30 were subjected to viral sequencing using Nanopore technology. Our analysis revealed that the Omicron variant was found in 99% of cases and that only one case was due to the Delta variant. Infected, fully vaccinated patients have a favorable clinical prognosis; however, within the community, they become viral carriers with the aggravating factor of viral dissemination of VOCs not neutralized by the vaccines.

Genome Detective Coronavirus Typing Tool for rapid identification and characterization of novel coronavirus genomes

SummaryGenome Detective is a web-based, user-friendly software application to quickly and accurately assemble all known virus genomes from next generation sequencing datasets. This application allows the identification of phylogenetic clusters and genotypes from assembled genomes in FASTA format. Since its release in 2019, we have produced a number of typing tools for emergent viruses that have caused large outbreaks, such as Zika and Yellow Fever Virus in Brazil. Here, we present The Genome Detective Coronavirus Typing Tool that can accurately identify novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) sequences isolated in China and around the world. The tool can accept up to 2,000 sequences per submission and the analysis of a new whole genome sequence will take approximately one minute. The tool has been tested and validated with hundreds of whole genomes from ten coronavirus species, and correctly classified all of the SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV) and all of the available public data for 2019-nCoV. The tool also allows tracking of new viral mutations as the outbreak expands globally, which may help to accelerate the development of novel diagnostics, drugs and vaccines. AvailabilityAvailable online: https://www.genomedetective.com/app/typingtool/cov * Contactkoen@emweb.be and deoliveira@ukzn.ac.za Supplementary informationSupplementary data is available online.

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependence in severity of COVID-19

Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from previous exposure to endemic coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and severity of COVID-19 disease. Here, we use a stochastic individual-based model to show that heterogeneities in individual exposure histories to endemic coronaviruses are able to explain observed age patterns of hospitalisation due to COVID-19 in EU/EEA countries and the UK, provided there is (i) a decrease in cross-protection to SARS-CoV-2 with the number of eHCoV exposures and (ii) an increase in potential disease severity with number of eHCoV exposures or as a result of immune senescence. We also show that variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to endemic coronaviruses and highlight potential challenges arising from heterogeneous health care capacity and testing.

Severe airport sanitarian control could slow down the spreading of COVID-19 pandemics in Brazil

BackgroundWe investigated a likely scenario of COVID-19 spreading in Brazil through the complex airport network of the country, for the 90 days after the first national occurrence of the disease. After the confirmation of the first imported cases, the lack of a proper airport entrance control resulted in the infection spreading in a manner directly proportional to the amount of flights reaching each city, following first occurrence of the virus coming from abroad. MethodologyWe developed a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model divided in a metapopulation structure, where cities with airports were demes connected by the number of flights. Subsequently, we further explored the role of Manaus airport for a rapid entrance of the pandemic into indigenous territories situated in remote places of the Amazon region. ResultsThe expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus between cities was fast, directly proportional to the airport closeness centrality within the Brazilian air transportation network. There was a clear pattern in the expansion of the pandemic, with a stiff exponential expansion of cases for all cities. The more an airport showed closeness centrality, the greater was its vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2. ConclusionsWe discussed the weak pandemic control performance of Brazil in comparison with other tropical, developing countries, namely India and Nigeria. Finally, we proposed measures for containing virus spreading taking into consideration the scenario of high poverty.

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 Indian variants: are electrostatic potential changes responsible for a higher transmission rate?

Lineage B.1.617+, also known as G/452R.V3, is a recently described SARS-CoV-2 variant under investigation (VUI) firstly identified in October 2020 in India. As of May 2021, three sublineages labelled as B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 have been already identified, and their potential impact on the current pandemic is being studied. This variant has 13 amino acid changes, three in its spike protein, which are currently of particular concern: E484Q, L452R and P681R. Here we report a major effect of the mutations characterizing this lineage, represented by a marked alteration of the surface electrostatic potential (EP) of the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein. Enhanced RBD-EP is particularly noticeable in the B.1.617.2 sublineage, which shows multiple replacements of neutral or negatively-charged amino acids with positively-charged amino acids. We here hypothesize that this EP change can favor the interaction between the B.1.617+RBD and the negatively-charged ACE2 thus conferring a potential increase in the virus transmission.

COVID-19 Sniffer Dog experimental training: which protocol and which implications for reliable identification?

The introduction of trained sniffer dogs for COVID-19 disease detection could be an opportunity, as previously described for other diseases. Dogs could be trained to detect volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the whiff of COVDI-19 disease. Dogs involved in the study were three one male and two females from different breeds, Black German Shepherd, German Shepherd and Dutch Shepherd. The training was performed using sweat samples from COVID-19 positive apteints and from covid-19 free patients admitted at the University Hospital Campus Bio-medico of Rome. Gauze with sweat were collected in glass jar with metal top and put in metal boxes used for dog training. The dog training protocol was performed in two phase: the olfactory conditioning and the olfactory discrimintaion research. The training palnning was focused on the switch moment for the sniffer dog, the moment when the dog was able to identify VOCs specific for COVID-19 disease. At this time the dog was able to identify VOCs specific for COVID-19 disease with significant reliability, in terms of number of correct versus uncorrect (p<0.0001) reporting. In conclusion, this protocol could provide a useful tool for sniffer dogs training and their introduction in mass screening context, cheaper and faster than a conventional testing method.

Whole Genome Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2: Adapting Illumina Protocols for Quick and Accurate Outbreak Investigation During a Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic spread very fast around the world. A few days after the first detected case in South Africa, an infection started a large hospital outbreak in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes can be used to trace the path of transmission within a hospital. It can also identify the source of the outbreak and provide lessons to improve infection prevention and control strategies. In this manuscript, we outline the obstacles we encountered in order to genotype SARS-CoV-2 in real-time during an urgent outbreak investigation. In this process, we encountered problems with the length of the original genotyping protocol, reagent stockout and sample degradation and storage. However, we managed to set up three different library preparation methods for sequencing in Illumina. We also managed to decrease the hands on library preparation time from twelve to three hours, which allowed us to complete the outbreak investigation in just a few weeks. We also fine-tuned a simple bioinformatics workflow for the assembly of high-quality genomes in real-time. In order to allow other laboratories to learn from our experience, we released all of the library preparation and bioinformatics protocols publicly and distributed them to other laboratories of the South African Network for Genomics Surveillance (SANGS) consortium.

Genetic and structural data on the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BQ.1 variant reveal its low potential for epidemiological expansion

The BQ.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant, also known as Cerberus, is one of the most recent Omicron descendant lineages. Compared to its direct progenitor BA.5, BQ.1 carries out some additional spike mutations in some key antigenic site which confer it further immune escape ability over other circulating lineage. In such a context, here we performed a genome-based survey aimed to obtain an as complete as possible nuance of this rapidly evolving Omicron subvariant. Genetic data suggests that BQ.1 represents an evolutionary blind background, lacking of the rapid diversification which is typical of a dangerous lineage. Indeed, the evolutionary rate of BQ.1 is very similar to that of BA.5 (7.6 x 10-4 and 7 x 10-4 subs/site/year, respectively), which is circulating by several months. Bayesian Skyline Plot reconstruction, indicates low level of genetic variability, suggesting that the peak has been reached around September 3, 2022. Structure analyses performed by comparing the properties of BQ.1 and BA.5 RBD indicated that the impact of the BQ.1 mutations on the affinity for ACE2 may be modest. Likewise, immunoinformatic analyses showed modest differences between the BQ.1 and the BA5 potential B-cells epitope. In conclusion, genetic and structural analysis on SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1 suggest that, it does not show evidence about its particular dangerous or high expansion capability. The monitoring genome-based must continue uninterrupted for a better understanding of its descendant and all other lineages.