Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data show substantial variation in the risk of HIV infection between communities within African countries. We hypothesised that focusing appropriate interventions on geographies and key populations at high risk of HIV infection could improve the effect of investments in the HIV response. METHODS: With use of Kenya as a case study, we developed a mathematical model that described the spatiotemporal evolution of the HIV epidemic and that incorporated the demographic, behavioural, and programmatic differences across subnational units. Modelled interventions (male circumcision, behaviour change communication, early antiretoviral therapy, and pre-exposure prophylaxis) could be provided to different population groups according to their risk behaviours or their location. For a given national budget, we compared the effect of a uniform intervention strategy, in which the same complement of interventions is provided across the country, with a focused strategy that tailors the set of interventions and amount of resources allocated to the local epidemiological conditions. FINDINGS: A uniformly distributed combination of HIV prevention interventions could reduce the total number of new HIV infections by 40% during a 15-year period. With no additional spending, this effect could be increased by 14% during the 15 years-almost 100,000 extra infections, and result in 33% fewer new HIV infections occurring every year by the end of the period if the focused approach is used to tailor resource allocation to reflect patterns in local epidemiology. The cumulative difference in new infections during the 15-year projection period depends on total budget and costs of interventions, and could be as great as 150,000 (a cumulative difference as great as 22%) under different assumptions about the unit costs of intervention. INTERPRETATION: The focused approach achieves greater effect than the uniform approach despite exactly the same investment. Through prioritisation of the people and locations at greatest risk of infection, and adaption of the interventions to reflect the local epidemiological context, the focused approach could substantially increase the efficiency and effectiveness of investments in HIV prevention. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UNAIDS.

A sub-national HIV epidemic appraisal in Kenya: a new approach for identifying priority geographies, populations and programmes for optimizing coverage for HIV prevention.

INTRODUCTION: The HIV Prevention 2025 Roadmap, developed by UNAIDS, recommends the adoption of a precision prevention approach focused on priority populations and geographies. With reduction in new HIV acquisitions in many countries, designing a differentiated HIV prevention response, using a Programme Science approach, based on the understanding of the epidemic and transmission dynamics at a sub-national level, is critical. METHODS: To support strategic planning, an epidemic appraisal at the sub-national level across 47 counties, with the 2019 population ranging from 0.14 million in Lamu to 4.40 million in Nairobi City, was conducted in Kenya using several existing data sources. Using 2021 Spectrum/EPP/Naomi model estimates of national and sub-national HIV incidence and prevalence, counties with high HIV incidence and prevalence were identified for geographic prioritization. The size of local key population (KP) networks and HIV prevalence in key and general populations were used to define epidemic typology and prioritize populations for HIV prevention programmes. Analysis of routine programme monitoring data for 2021 was used to assess coverage gaps in HIV prevention programmes, including prevention of vertical transmission, anti-retroviral therapy, KP programmes, adolescent girls and young women programme, and voluntary male medical circumcision programme. RESULTS: Ten counties with more than 1000 incident acquisitions in 2021 accounted for 57% of new acquisitions. Twenty-four counties were grouped into the concentrated epidemic type-due to their low prevalence in the general population, high prevalence in KPs and relatively higher density of female sex workers and men who have sex with men populations. Four counties reflected a generalized epidemic, where HIV prevalence was more than 10% and 30%, respectively, among the general and key populations. The remaining 19 counties were classified as having mixed epidemics. Gaps in programmes were identified and counties where these gaps need to be addressed were also prioritized. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV burden in Kenya is unevenly distributed and hence the mix of prevention strategies may vary according to the epidemic typology of the county. Prioritization of programmes based not only on disease burden and epidemic typology, but also on the prevailing gaps in coverage for reducing inequities is a key aspect of this appraisal.

Ending Neglected Surgical Diseases (NSDs): Definitions, Strategies, and Goals for the Next Decade.

While there has been overall progress in addressing the lack of access to surgical care worldwide, untreated surgical conditions in developing countries remain an underprioritized issue. Significant backlogs of advanced surgical disease called neglected surgical diseases (NSDs) result from massive disparities in access to quality surgical care. We aim to discuss a framework for a public health rights-based initiative designed to prevent and eliminate the backlog of NSDs in developing countries. We defined NSDs and set forth six criteria that focused on the applicability and practicality of implementing a program designed to eradicate the backlog of six target NSDs from the list of 44 Disease Control Priorities 3rd edition (DCP3) surgical interventions. The human rights-based approach (HRBA) was used to clarify NSDs role within global health. Literature reviews were conducted to ascertain the global disease burden, estimated global backlog, average cost per treatment, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted from the treatment, return on investment, and potential gain and economic impact of the NSDs identified. Six index NSDs were identified, including neglected cleft lips and palate, clubfoot, cataracts, hernias and hydroceles, injuries, and obstetric fistula. Global definitions were proposed as a starting point towards the prevention and elimination of the backlog of NSDs. Defining a subset of neglected surgical conditions that illustrates society's role and responsibility in addressing them provides a framework through the HRBA lens for its eventual eradication.