Relationship between Emphysema Progression at CT and Mortality in Ever-Smokers: Results from the COPDGene and ECLIPSE Cohorts.

Background The relationship between emphysema progression and long-term outcomes is unclear. Purpose To determine the relationship between emphysema progression at CT and mortality among participants with emphysema. Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies, COPDGene (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00608764) and Evaluation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE; clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00292552), emphysema was measured at CT at two points by using the volume-adjusted lung density at the 15th percentile of the lung density histogram (hereafter, lung density perc15) method. The association between emphysema progression rate and all-cause mortality was analyzed by using Cox regression adjusted for ethnicity, sex, baseline age, pack-years, and lung density, baseline and change in smoking status, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and 6-minute walk distance. In COPDGene, respiratory mortality was analyzed by using the Fine and Gray method. Results A total of 5143 participants (2613 men [51%]; mean age, 60 years ± 9 [standard deviation]) in COPDGene and 1549 participants (973 men [63%]; mean age, 62 years ± 8) in ECLIPSE were evaluated, of which 2097 (40.8%) and 1179 (76.1%) had emphysema, respectively. Baseline imaging was performed between January 2008 and December 2010 for COPDGene and January 2006 and August 2007 for ECLIPSE. Follow-up imaging was performed after 5.5 years ± 0.6 in COPDGene and 3.0 years ± 0.2 in ECLIPSE, and mortality was assessed over the ensuing 5 years in both. For every 1 g/L per year faster rate of decline in lung density perc15, all-cause mortality increased by 8% in COPDGene (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.16; P = .03) and 6% in ECLIPSE (HR, 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.13; P = .045). In COPDGene, respiratory mortality increased by 22% (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.31; P < .001) for the same increase in the rate of change in lung density perc15. Conclusion In ever-smokers with emphysema, emphysema progression at CT was associated with increased all-cause and respiratory mortality. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Park in this issue.

Cost-effectiveness microsimulation of catheter-directed thrombolysis in submassive pulmonary embolism using a right ventricular function model.

Approximately 30-50% of hemodynamically stable patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have evidence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. These patients are classified as submassive PE and the role of reperfusion therapy remains unclear. We sought to identify the circumstances under which catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) would represent high-value care for submassive PE. We used a computer-based, individual-level, state-transition model with one million simulated patients to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the treatment of submassive PE with CDT followed by anticoagulation to treatment with anticoagulation alone. Because RV function impacts prognosis and is commonly used in PE outcomes research, our model used RV dysfunction to differentiate health states. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify model uncertainty. Our base case analysis generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $119,326 per quality adjusted life year. Sensitivity analyses resulted in ICERs consistent with high-value care when CDT conferred a reduction in the absolute probability of RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more. CDT yielded low-value ICERs if the absolute reduction was less than 1.56%. Our model suggests that catheter-directed thrombolytics represents high-value care compared to anticoagulation alone when CDT offers an absolute improvement in RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more, but there is substantial uncertainly around these results. We estimated the monetary value of clarifying the costs and consequences surrounding RV dysfunction after submassive PE to be approximately $268 million annually, suggesting further research in this area could be highly valuable.

Semi-quantitative visual assessment of chest radiography is associated with clinical outcomes in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory pathology is a major driver of mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU), even in the absence of a primary respiratory diagnosis. Prior work has demonstrated that a visual scoring system applied to chest radiographs (CXR) is associated with adverse outcomes in ICU patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). We hypothesized that a simple, semi-quantitative CXR score would be associated with clinical outcomes for the general ICU population, regardless of underlying diagnosis. METHODS: All individuals enrolled in the Registry of Critical Illness at Brigham and Women's Hospital between June 2008 and August 2018 who had a CXR within 24 h of admission were included. Each patient's CXR was assigned an opacification score of 0-4 in each of four quadrants with the total score being the sum of all four quadrants. Multivariable negative binomial, logistic, and Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, race, immunosuppression, a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a history of congestive heart failure, and APACHE II scores, were used to assess the total score's association with ICU length of stay (LOS), duration of mechanical ventilation, in-hospital mortality, 60-day mortality, and overall mortality, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 560 patients were included. Higher CXR scores were associated with increased mortality; for every one-point increase in score, in-hospital mortality increased 10% (OR 1.10, CI 1.05-1.16, p < 0.001) and 60-day mortality increased by 12% (OR 1.12, CI 1.07-1.17, p < 0.001). CXR scores were also independently associated with both ICU length of stay (rate ratio 1.06, CI 1.04-1.07, p < 0.001) and duration of mechanical ventilation (rate ratio 1.05, CI 1.02-1.07, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher values on a simple visual score of a patient's CXR on admission to the medical ICU are associated with increased in-hospital mortality, 60-day mortality, overall mortality, length of ICU stay, and duration of mechanical ventilation.

Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression and Outcomes in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors and clinical outcomes of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression over time have not been characterized. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the associations of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression with lung function, exercise capacity, and mortality? What are the demographic and genetic risk factors for quantitative interstitial abnormality progression? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Quantitative interstitial abnormality progression between visits 1 and 2 was assessed from 4,635 participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort and 1,307 participants in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) cohort. We used multivariable linear regression to determine the risk factors for progression and the longitudinal associations between progression and FVC and 6-min walk distance, and Cox regression models for the association with mortality. RESULTS: Age at enrollment, female sex, current smoking status, and the MUC5B minor allele were associated with quantitative interstitial abnormality progression. Each percent annual increase in quantitative interstitial abnormalities was associated with annual declines in FVC (COPDGene: 8.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 4.7-12.4 mL/y; P < .001; PLuSS: 9.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 3.7-15.4 mL/y; P = .001) and 6-min walk distance, and increased mortality (COPDGene: hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.12; P < .001; PLuSS: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.49; P = .001). INTERPRETATION: The objective, longitudinal measurement of quantitative interstitial abnormalities may help identify people at greatest risk for adverse events and most likely to benefit from early intervention.

Significant Spirometric Transitions and Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry Among Ever Smokers.

BACKGROUND: Emerging data from longitudinal studies suggest that preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm), defined by proportionate reductions in FEV1 and FVC, is a heterogeneous population with frequent transitions to other lung function categories relative to individuals with normal and obstructive spirometry. Controversy regarding the clinical significance of these transitions exists (eg, whether transitions merely reflect measurement variability or noise). RESEARCH QUESTION: Are individuals with PRISm enriched for transitions associated with substantial changes in lung function? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Current and former smokers enrolled in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study with spirometry available in phases 1 through 3 (enrollment, 5-year follow-up, and 10-year follow-up) were analyzed. Postbronchodilator lung function categories were as follows: PRISm (FEV1 < 80% predicted with FEV1/FVC ratio ≥ 0.7), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grade 0 (FEV1 ≥ 80% predicted and FEV1/FVC ≥ 0.7), and obstruction (FEV1/FVC < 0.7). Significant transition status was affirmative if a subject belonged to two or more spirometric categories and had > 10% change in FEV1 % predicted and/or FVC % predicted between consecutive visits. Ever-PRISm was present if a subject had PRISm at any visit. Logistic regression examined the association between significant transitions and ever-PRISm status, adjusted for age, sex, race, FEV1 % predicted, current smoking, pack-years, BMI, and ever-positive bronchodilator response. RESULTS: Among subjects with complete data (N = 1,775) over 10.1 ± 0.4 years of follow-up, the prevalence of PRISm remained consistent (10.4%-11.3%) between phases 1 through 3, but nearly one-half of subjects with PRISm transitioned into or out of PRISm at each visit. Among all subjects, 19.7% had a significant transition; ever-PRISm was a significant predictor of significant transitions (unadjusted OR, 10.3; 95% CI, 7.9-13.5; adjusted OR, 14.9; 95% CI, 10.9-20.7). Results were similar with additional adjustment for radiographic emphysema and gas trapping, when lower limit of normal criteria were used to define lung function categories, and when FEV1 alone (regardless of change in FVC % predicted) was used to define significant transitions. INTERPRETATION: PRISm is an unstable group, with frequent significant transitions to both obstruction and normal spirometry over time. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT000608764; URL: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov.

Longitudinal Association Between Muscle Loss and Mortality in Ever Smokers.

BACKGROUND: Body composition measures, specifically low weight or reduced muscle mass, are associated with mortality in COPD, but the effect of longitudinal body composition changes is undefined. RESEARCH QUESTION: Is the longitudinal loss of fat-free mass (FFM) associated with increased mortality, including in those with initially normal or elevated body composition metrics? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants with complete data for at least one visit in the COPDGene study (n = 9,268) and the ECLIPSE study (n = 1,760) were included and monitored for 12 and 8 years, respectively. Pectoralis muscle area (PMA) was derived from thoracic CT scans and used as a proxy for FFM. A longitudinal mixed submodel for PMA and a Cox proportional hazards submodel for survival were fitted on a joint distribution, using a shared random intercept parameter and Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation. RESULTS: Both cohorts demonstrated a left-shifted distribution of baseline FFM, not reflected in BMI, and an increase in all-cause mortality risk associated with longitudinal loss of PMA. For each 1-cm2 PMA loss, mortality increased 3.1% (95% CI, 2.4%-3.7%; P < .001) in COPDGene, and 2.4% (95% CI, 0.9%-4.0%; P < .001) in ECLIPSE. Increased mortality risk was independent of enrollment values for BMI and disease severity [BODE (body mass, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) index quartiles] and was significant even in participants with initially greater than average PMA. INTERPRETATION: Longitudinal loss of PMA is associated with increased all-cause mortality, regardless of BMI or initial muscle mass. Consideration of novel screening tests and further research into mechanisms contributing to muscle decline may improve risk stratification and identify novel therapeutic targets in ever smokers.

Distinguishing Smoking-Related Lung Disease Phenotypes Via Imaging and Molecular Features.

BACKGROUND: Chronic tobacco smoke exposure results in a broad range of lung pathologies including emphysema, airway disease and parenchymal fibrosis as well as a multitude of extra-pulmonary comorbidities. Prior work using CT imaging has identified several clinically relevant subgroups of smoking related lung disease, but these investigations have generally lacked organ specific molecular correlates. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can CT imaging be used to identify clinical phenotypes of smoking related lung disease that have specific bronchial epithelial gene expression patterns to better understand disease pathogenesis? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using K-means clustering, we clustered participants from the COPDGene study (n = 5,273) based on CT imaging characteristics and then evaluated their clinical phenotypes. These clusters were replicated in the Detection of Early Lung Cancer Among Military Personnel (DECAMP) cohort (n = 360), and were further characterized using bronchial epithelial gene expression. RESULTS: Three clusters (preserved, interstitial predominant and emphysema predominant) were identified. Compared to the preserved cluster, the interstitial and emphysema clusters had worse lung function, exercise capacity and quality of life. In longitudinal follow-up, individuals from the emphysema group had greater declines in exercise capacity and lung function, more emphysema, more exacerbations, and higher mortality. Similarly, genes involved in inflammatory pathways (tumor necrosis factor-α, interferon-ß) are more highly expressed in bronchial epithelial cells from individuals in the emphysema cluster, while genes associated with T-cell related biology are decreased in these samples. Samples from individuals in the interstitial cluster generally had intermediate levels of expression of these genes. INTERPRETATION: Using quantitative CT imaging, we identified three groups of individuals in older ever-smokers that replicate in two cohorts. Airway gene expression differences between the three groups suggests increased levels of inflammation in the most severe clinical phenotype, possibly mediated by the tumor necrosis factor-α and interferon-ß pathways. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: COPDGene (NCT00608764), DECAMP-1 (NCT01785342), DECAMP-2 (NCT02504697).

Preoperative brain injury in transposition of the great arteries is associated with oxygenation and time to surgery, not balloon atrial septostomy.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative brain injury is an increasingly recognized phenomenon in neonates with complex congenital heart disease. Recently, reports have been published that associate preoperative brain injury in neonates with transposition of the great arteries with the performance of balloon atrial septostomy (BAS), a procedure that improves systemic oxygenation preoperatively. It is unclear whether BAS is the cause of brain injury or is a confounder, because neonates who require BAS are typically more hypoxemic. We sought to determine the relationship between preoperative brain injury in neonates with transposition of the great arteries and the performance of BAS. We hypothesized that brain injury results from hypoxic injury, not from the BAS itself. METHODS AND RESULTS: Infants with transposition of the great arteries (n=26) were retrospectively included from a larger cohort of infants with congenital heart disease who underwent preoperative brain MRI as part of 2 separate prospective studies. Data collected included all preoperative pulse oximetry recordings, all values from preoperative arterial blood gas measurements, and BAS procedure data. MRI scans were performed on the day of surgery, before the surgical repair. Of the 26 neonates, 14 underwent BAS. No stroke was seen in the entire cohort, whereas 10 (38%) of 26 patients were found to have hypoxic brain injury in the form of periventricular leukomalacia. Periventricular leukomalacia was not associated with BAS; however, neonates with periventricular leukomalacia had lower preoperative oxygenation (P=0.026) and a longer time to surgery (P=0.028) than those without periventricular leukomalacia. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative brain injury in neonates with transposition of the great arteries is associated with hypoxemia and longer time to surgery. We found no association between BAS and brain injury.

Optical measurement of cerebral hemodynamics and oxygen metabolism in neonates with congenital heart defects.

We employ a hybrid diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitor for neonates with congenital heart disease (n=33). The NIRS-DCS device measured changes during hypercapnia of oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, and total hemoglobin concentrations; cerebral blood flow (rCBF(DCS)); and oxygen metabolism (rCMRO(2)). Concurrent measurements with arterial spin-labeled magnetic resonance imaging (rCBF(ASL-MRI), n=12) cross-validate rCBF(DCS) against rCBF(ASL-MRI), showing good agreement (R=0.7, p=0.01). The study demonstrates use of NIRS-DCS on a critically ill neonatal population, and the results indicate that the optical technology is a promising clinical method for monitoring this population.