Age differences in the neural basis of decision-making under uncertainty.

Humans globally are reaping the benefits of longer lives. Yet, longer life spans also require engaging with consequential but often uncertain decisions well into old age. Previous research has yielded mixed findings with regards to life span differences in how individuals make decisions under uncertainty. One factor contributing to the heterogeneity of findings is the diversity of paradigms that cover different aspects of uncertainty and tap into different cognitive and affective mechanisms. In this study, 175 participants (53.14% females, mean age = 44.9 years, SD = 19.0, age range = 16 to 81) completed functional neuroimaging versions of two prominent paradigms in this area, the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and the Delay Discounting Task. Guided by neurobiological accounts of age-related changes in decision-making under uncertainty, we examined age effects on neural activation differences in decision-relevant brain structures, and compared these across multiple contrasts for the two paradigms using specification curve analysis. In line with theoretical predictions, we find age differences in nucleus accumbens, anterior insula, and medial prefrontal cortex, but the results vary across paradigm and contrasts. Our results are in line with existing theories of age differences in decision making and their neural substrates, yet also suggest the need for a broader research agenda that considers how both individual and task characteristics determine the way humans deal with uncertainty.

Good + Bad = ? Developmental Differences in Balancing Gains and Losses in Value-Based Decisions From Memory.

Value-based decisions often involve comparisons between benefits and costs that must be retrieved from memory. To investigate the development of value-based decisions, 9- to 10-year olds (N = 30), 11- to 12-year olds (N = 30), and young adults (N = 30) first learned to associate gain and loss magnitudes with symbols. In a subsequent decision task, participants rapidly evaluated objects that consisted of combinations of these symbols. All age groups achieved high decision performance and were sensitive to gain-loss magnitudes, suggesting that required core cognitive abilities are developed early. A cognitive-modeling analysis of performance revealed that children were less efficient in object evaluation (drift rate) and had longer nondecision times than adults. Developmental differences, which emerged particularly for objects of high positive net value, were linked to mnemonic and numerical abilities.

Who Dares, Who Errs? Disentangling Cognitive and Motivational Roots of Age Differences in Decisions Under Risk.

We separate for the first time the roles of cognitive and motivational factors in shaping age differences in decision making under risk. Younger and older adults completed gain, loss, and mixed-domain choice problems as well as measures of cognitive functioning and affect. The older adults' decision quality was lower than the younger adults' in the loss domain, and this age difference was attributable to the older adults' lower cognitive abilities. In addition, the older adults chose the more risky option more often than the younger adults in the gain and mixed domains; this difference in risk aversion was attributable to less pronounced negative affect among the older adults. Computational modeling with a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative prospect theory revealed that the older adults had higher response noise and more optimistic decision weights for gains than did the younger adults. Moreover, the older adults showed no loss aversion, a finding that supports a positivity-focus (rather than a loss-prevention) view of motivational reorientation in older age.

Information structuring improves recall of emergency discharge information: a randomized clinical trial.

This article examines the extent to which structuring Emergency Department discharge information improves the ability to recall that information, and whether such benefits interact with relevant prior knowledge. Using three samples of students with different levels of prior medical knowledge, we investigated the amount of information recalled after structured vs. non-structured presentation of information. Across all student samples, the structured discharge information led to a relative increase in recalled items of 17% compared to non-structured discharge information (M = 9.70, SD = 4.96 vs. M = 8.31, SD = 4.93). In the sample with least medical knowledge, however, the structured discharge information resulted in a relative increase in recall by 42% (M = 8.12 vs. M = 5.71). These results suggest that structuring discharge information can be a useful tool to improve recall of information and is likely to be most beneficial for patient populations with lower levels of medical knowledge.

Propensity for Risk Taking Across the Life Span and Around the Globe.

Past empirical work suggests that aging is associated with decreases in risk taking. But are such effects universal? Life-history theory suggests that the link between age and risk taking is a function of specific reproductive strategies that can be more or less risky depending on the ecology. We assessed variation in the age-risk curve using World Values Survey data from 77 countries (N = 147,118). The results suggest that propensity for risk taking tends to decline across the life span in the vast majority of countries. In addition, there is systematic variation among countries: Countries in which hardship (e.g., high infant mortality) is higher are characterized by higher levels of risk taking and flatter age-risk curves. These findings suggest that hardship may function as a cue to guide life-history strategies. Age-risk relations thus cannot be understood without reference to the demands and affordances of the environment.

Adult age differences in frontostriatal representation of prediction error but not reward outcome.

Emerging evidence from decision neuroscience suggests that although younger and older adults show similar frontostriatal representations of reward magnitude, older adults often show deficits in feedback-driven reinforcement learning. In the present study, healthy adults completed reward-based tasks that did or did not depend on probabilistic learning, while undergoing functional neuroimaging. We observed reductions in the frontostriatal representation of prediction errors during probabilistic learning in older adults. In contrast, we found evidence for stability across adulthood in the representation of reward outcome in a task that did not require learning. Together, the results identify changes across adulthood in the dynamic coding of relational representations of feedback, in spite of preserved reward sensitivity in old age. Overall, the results suggest that the neural representation of prediction error, but not reward outcome, is reduced in old age. These findings reveal a potential dissociation between cognition and motivation with age and identify a potential mechanism for explaining changes in learning-dependent decision making in old adulthood.

Novel embeddings improve the prediction of risk perception.

We assess whether the classic psychometric paradigm of risk perception can be improved or supplanted by novel approaches relying on language embeddings. To this end, we introduce the Basel Risk Norms, a large data set covering 1004 distinct sources of risk (e.g., vaccination, nuclear energy, artificial intelligence) and compare the psychometric paradigm against novel text and free-association embeddings in predicting risk perception. We find that an ensemble model combining text and free association rivals the predictive accuracy of the psychometric paradigm, captures additional affect and frequency-related dimensions of risk perception not accounted for by the classic approach, and has greater range of applicability to real-world text data, such as news headlines. Overall, our results establish the ensemble of text and free-association embeddings as a promising new tool for researchers and policymakers to track real-world risk perception. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00478-x.

Lifespan trajectories of risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control: A dataset containing self-report, informant-report, behavioral, hormone and functional neuroimaging measures from a cross-sectional human sample.

This paper describes data collected from a cross-sectional convenience sample of 200 healthy human volunteers between 16 and 81 years of age. We assembled an extensive battery of measures of risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control, as well as a range of demographic and cognitive measures, Crucially, we adopted different measure categories, including self-reports, informant reports, behavioral measures, and biological measures (hormones, brain function) to capture individual differences, and adopted a within-participant design. Data collection took place over multiple sessions. First, participants completed a laboratory session at the university during which we collected computer-assisted self-report measures (i.e., standardized questionnaires) as well as behavioral measures using computerized tasks. Second, participants independently completed a home session that included the completion of self-report measures, and the collection of saliva samples. In parallel, we acquired informant reports from up to three individuals nominated by the study participants. Third, participants completed a final session at the local hospital during which we collected structural and functional neuroimaging data, as well as further self-report measures. The data was collected to address questions concerning the developmental trajectories of risk preference and related constructs while assessing the impact of the assessment method; however, we invite fellow researchers to benefit from and further explore the data for research on decision-making under risk and uncertainty in general, and to apply novel analytical approaches (e.g., machine-learning applications to the neuroimaging data). Combining a large set of measures with a within-participant design affords a wealth of opportunities for further insights and a more robust evidence base supporting current theorizing on (age-related) differences in risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control.

Convergence of Age Differences in Risk Preference, Impulsivity, and Self-Control: A Multiverse Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Numerous theories exist regarding age differences in risk preference and related constructs, yet many of them offer conflicting predictions and fail to consider convergence between measurement modalities or constructs. To pave the way for conceptual clarification and theoretical refinement, in this preregistered study we aimed to comprehensively examine age effects on risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control using different measurement modalities, and to assess their convergence. METHODS: We collected a large battery of self-report, informant report, behavioral, hormone, and neuroimaging measures from a cross-sectional sample of 148 (55% female) healthy human participants between 16 and 81 years (mean age = 46 years, standard deviation [SD] = 19). We used an extended sample of 182 participants (54% female, mean age = 46 years, SD = 19) for robustness checks concerning the results from self-reports, informant reports, and behavioral measures. For our main analysis, we performed specification curve analyses to visualize and estimate the convergence between the different modalities and constructs. RESULTS: Our multiverse analysis approach revealed convergent results for risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control from self- and informant reports, suggesting a negative effect of age. For behavioral, hormonal, and neuroimaging outcomes, age effects were mostly absent. DISCUSSION: Our findings call for conceptual clarification and improved operationalization to capture the putative mechanisms underlying age-related differences in risk preference and related constructs.

Aging and Economic Preferences: Cumulative Meta-Analyses of Age Differences in Risk, Time, Social, and Effort Preferences.

OBJECTIVES: Several theories predict changes in individuals' economic preferences across the life span. To test these theories and provide a historical overview of this literature, we conducted meta-analyses on age differences in risk, time, social, and effort preferences as assessed by behavioral measures. METHODS: We conducted separate meta-analyses and cumulative meta-analyses on the association between age and risk, time, social, and effort preferences. We also conducted analyses of historical trends in sample sizes and citation patterns for each economic preference. RESULTS: The meta-analyses identified overall no significant effects of age for risk (r = -0.02, 95% CI [-0.06, 0.02], n = 39,832) and effort preferences (r = 0.24, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.52], n = 571), but significant effects of age for time (r = -0.04, 95% CI [-0.07, -0.01], n = 115,496) and social preferences (r = 0.11, 95% CI [0.01, 0.21], n = 2,997), suggesting increased patience and altruism with age, respectively. Equivalence tests, which compare these effects to practically important ones (i.e., r = |0.1|), however, suggest that all effects are of trivial significance. The analyses of temporal trends suggest that the magnitude of effects and sample sizes have not changed significantly over time, nor do they dramatically affect the extent that articles are cited. DISCUSSION: Overall, our results contrast with theories of aging that propose general age effects for risk and effort preferences, yet provide some but tenuous support for those suggesting age-related changes in time and social preferences. We discuss implications for theory development as well as future empirical work on economic preferences.

Life-Course Trajectories of Risk-Taking Propensity: A Coordinated Analysis of Longitudinal Studies.

OBJECTIVES: How does risk preference change across the life span? We address this question by conducting a coordinated analysis to obtain the first meta-analytic estimates of adult longitudinal age differences in risk-taking propensity in different domains. METHODS: We report results from 26 longitudinal samples (12 panels; 187,733 unique respondents; 19 countries) covering general and domain-specific risk-taking propensity (financial, driving, recreational, occupational, health) across 3 or more waves. RESULTS: Results revealed a negative relation between age and both general and domain-specific risk-taking propensity. Furthermore, females consistently reported lower levels of risk taking across the life span than males in all domains, but there is little support for the idea of an age by gender interaction. Although we found evidence of systematic and universal age differences, we also detected considerable heterogeneity across domains and samples. DISCUSSION: Our work suggests a need to understand the nature of heterogeneity of age differences in risk-taking propensity and recommends the use of domain-specific and population estimates for applications interested in modeling heterogeneity in risk preference for economic and policy-making purposes.

Cohort profile: Genetic data in the German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-G).

The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) serves a global research community by providing representative annual longitudinal data of respondents living in private households in Germany. The dataset offers a valuable life course panorama, encompassing living conditions, socioeconomic status, familial connections, personality traits, values, preferences, health, and well-being. To amplify research opportunities further, we have extended the SOEP Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) by collecting genetic data from 2,598 participants, yielding the first genotyped dataset for Germany based on a representative population sample (SOEP-G). The sample includes 107 full-sibling pairs, 501 parent-offspring pairs, and 152 triads, which overlap with the parent-offspring pairs. Leveraging the results from well-powered genome-wide association studies, we created a repository comprising 66 polygenic indices (PGIs) in the SOEP-G sample. We show that the PGIs for height, BMI, and educational attainment capture 22∼24%, 12∼13%, and 9% of the variance in the respective phenotypes. Using the PGIs for height and BMI, we demonstrate that the considerable increase in average height and the decrease in average BMI in more recent birth cohorts cannot be attributed to genetic shifts within the German population or to age effects alone. These findings suggest an important role of improved environmental conditions in driving these changes. Furthermore, we show that higher values in the PGIs for educational attainment and the highest math class are associated with better self-rated health, illustrating complex relationships between genetics, cognition, behavior, socio-economic status, and health. In summary, the SOEP-G data and the PGI repository we created provide a valuable resource for studying individual differences, inequalities, life-course development, health, and interactions between genetic predispositions and the environment.

Effects of a salsa dance training on balance and strength performance in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in static and particularly dynamic postural control and force production have frequently been associated with an increased risk of falling in older adults. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of salsa dancing on measures of static/dynamic postural control and leg extensor power in seniors. METHODS: Twenty-eight healthy older adults were randomly assigned to an intervention group (INT, n = 14, age 71.6 ± 5.3 years) to conduct an 8-week progressive salsa dancing programme or a control group (CON, n = 14, age 68.9 ± 4.7 years). Static postural control was measured during one-legged stance on a balance platform and dynamic postural control was obtained while walking on an instrumented walkway. Leg extensor power was assessed during a countermovement jump on a force plate. RESULTS: Programme compliance was excellent with participants of the INT group completing 92.5% of the dancing sessions. A tendency towards an improvement in the selected measures of static postural control was observed in the INT group as compared to the CON group. Significant group × test interactions were found for stride velocity, length and time. Post hoc analyses revealed significant increases in stride velocity and length, and concomitant decreases in stride time. However, salsa dancing did not have significant effects on various measures of gait variability and leg extensor power. CONCLUSION: Salsa proved to be a safe and feasible exercise programme for older adults accompanied with a high adherence rate. Age-related deficits in measures of static and particularly dynamic postural control can be mitigated by salsa dancing in older adults. High physical activity and fitness/mobility levels of our participants could be responsible for the nonsignificant findings in gait variability and leg extensor power.

On the semantic representation of risk.

What are the defining features of lay people's semantic representation of risk? We contribute to mapping the semantics of risk based on word associations to provide insight into both universal and individual differences in the representation of risk. Specifically, we introduce a mini-snowball word association paradigm and use the tools of network and sentiment analysis to characterize the semantics of risk. We find that association-based representations not only corroborate but also extend those extracted from past survey- and text-based approaches. Crucially, we find that the semantics of risk show universal properties and individual and group differences. Most notably, while semantic clusters generalize across languages, their frequency varies systematically across demographic groups, with older and female respondents showing more negative connotations and mentioning more often certain types of activities (e.g., recreational activities) relative to younger adults and males, respectively. Our work has general implications for the measurement of risk-related constructs by suggesting that "risk" can mean different things to different individuals.

Structural differences in the semantic networks of younger and older adults.

Cognitive science invokes semantic networks to explain diverse phenomena, from memory retrieval to creativity. Research in these areas often assumes a single underlying semantic network that is shared across individuals. Yet, recent evidence suggests that content, size, and connectivity of semantic networks are experience-dependent, implying sizable individual and age-related differences. Here, we investigate individual and age differences in the semantic networks of younger and older adults by deriving semantic networks from both fluency and similarity rating tasks. Crucially, we use a megastudy approach to obtain thousands of similarity ratings per individual to allow us to capture the characteristics of individual semantic networks. We find that older adults possess lexical networks with smaller average degree and longer path lengths relative to those of younger adults, with older adults showing less interindividual agreement and thus more unique lexical representations relative to younger adults. Furthermore, this approach shows that individual and age differences are not evenly distributed but, rather, are related to weakly connected, peripheral parts of the networks. All in all, these results reveal the interindividual differences in both the content and the structure of semantic networks that may accumulate across the life span as a function of idiosyncratic experiences.

Using Network Science to Understand the Aging Lexicon: Linking Individuals' Experience, Semantic Networks, and Cognitive Performance.

People undergo many idiosyncratic experiences throughout their lives that may contribute to individual differences in the size and structure of their knowledge representations. Ultimately, these can have important implications for individuals' cognitive performance. We review evidence that suggests a relationship between individual experiences, the size and structure of semantic representations, as well as individual and age differences in cognitive performance. We conclude that the extent to which experience-dependent changes in semantic representations contribute to individual differences in cognitive aging remains unclear. To help fill this gap, we outline an empirical agenda that utilizes network analysis and involves the concurrent assessment of large-scale semantic networks and cognitive performance in younger and older adults. We present preliminary data to establish the feasibility and limitations of such empirical, network-analytical approaches.

Temporal discounting across adulthood: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

A number of developmental theories have been proposed that make differential predictions about the links between age and temporal discounting, or the devaluation of future rewards. Most empirical studies examining adult age differences in temporal discounting have relied on economic intertemporal choice tasks, which pit choosing a smaller, sooner monetary reward against choosing a larger, later one. Although initial studies using these tasks suggested older adults discount less than younger adults, follow-up studies provided heterogeneous, and thus inconclusive, results. Using an open science approach, we test the replicability of adult age differences in temporal discounting by conducting a preregistered systematic literature search and meta-analysis of adult age differences in intertemporal choice tasks. Across 37 cross-sectional studies (Total N = 104,737), a planned meta-analysis found no sizeable relation between age and temporal discounting, r = -0.068, 95% CI [-0.170, 0.035]. We also found little evidence of publication bias or p-hacking. Exploratory analyses of moderators found no effect of research design (e.g., extreme-group vs. continuous age), incentives (hypothetical vs. real rewards), duration of delay (e.g., days, weeks, months, or years), or quantification of discounting behavior (e.g., proportion of immediate choices vs. parameters from computational modeling). Additional analyses of 12 participant-level data sets found little support for a nonlinear relation between age and temporal discounting across adulthood. Overall, the results suggest that younger, middle-aged, and older adults show similar preferences for smaller, sooner over larger, later rewards. We provide recommendations for future empirical work on temporal discounting across the adult life span. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

When easy comes hard: the development of adaptive strategy selection.

Can children learn to select the right strategy for a given problem? In one experiment, 9- to 10-year-olds (N = 50), 11- to 12-year-olds (N = 50), and adults (N = 50) made probabilistic inferences. Participants encountered environments favoring either an information-intensive strategy that integrates all available information or an information-frugal strategy that relies only on the most valid pieces of information. Nine- to 10-year-olds but not older children or adults had more difficulties learning to select an information-frugal strategy than an information-intensive strategy. This counterintuitive finding is explained by children's less developed ability to selectively attend to relevant information, an ability that seems to develop during late childhood. The results suggest that whether a strategy can be considered "easy" depends on the development of specific cognitive abilities.

Age differences in affective forecasting and experienced emotion surrounding the 2008 US presidential election.

In everyday life, people frequently make decisions based on tacit or explicit forecasts about the emotional consequences associated with the possible choices. We investigated age differences in such forecasts and their accuracy by surveying voters about their expected and, subsequently, their actual emotional responses to the 2008 US presidential election. A sample of 762 Democratic and Republican voters aged 20 to 80 years participated in a web-based study; 346 could be re-contacted two days after the election. Older adults forecasted lower increases in high-arousal emotions (e.g., excitement after winning; anger after losing) and larger increases in low-arousal emotions (e.g., sluggishness after losing) than younger adults. Age differences in actual responses to the election were consistent with forecasts, albeit less pervasive. Additionally, among supporters of the winning candidate, but not among supporters of the losing candidate, forecasting accuracy was enhanced with age, suggesting a positivity effect in affective forecasting. These results add to emerging findings about the role of valence and arousal in emotional ageing and demonstrate age differences in affective forecasting about a real-world event with an emotionally charged outcome.