Risk scores for predicting incident heart failure admission in patients with chronic coronary syndromes: Validation in a prospective, monocentric, long-term, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) admission in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients has a prognostic impact. Stratification schemes have been described for predicting this endpoint, but none of them has been externally validated. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to develop point scores for predicting incident HF admission with data from previous studies, to perform an external validation in an independent prospective cohort and to compare their discriminative ability for this event. METHODS: Independent predictive variables of HF admission in CCS patients without baseline HF were selected from four previous prospective studies (CARE, PEACE, CORONOR and CLARIFY), generating scores based on the relative magnitude of the coefficients of Cox of each variable. Finally, the scores were validated and compared in a monocentric prospective cohort. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 1212 patients followed for up to 17 years, with 171 patients suffering at least one HF admission in the follow-up. Discriminative ability for predicting HF admission was statistically significant for all, and paired comparisons among them were all nonsignificant except for CORONOR score was superior to CLARIFY score (C-statistic 0.73, 95%CI 0.69-0.76 vs. 0.69, 95% CI 0.65-0.73; p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: All tested scores showed significant discriminative ability for predicting incident HF admission in this independent validation study. Their discriminative ability was similar, with significant differences only between the two scores with higher and lower performance.

Long-Term Prognostic Impact of Sex in Patients with Chronic Coronary Syndrome: A 17-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Women and men with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) have different clinical features and management, and studies on mid-term prognosis have reported conflicting results. Our objective was to investigate the impact of the female sex in the prognosis of the disease in the very long term. Methods and Results: We investigated differential features and very long-term prognosis in 1268 consecutive outpatients with CCS (337 [27%] women and 931 [73%] men). Women were older than men, more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, angina, and atrial fibrillation, and less likely to be exsmoker/active smoker and to have been treated with coronary revascularization (p < 0.05 for all). The prescription of statins, antiplatelets, and betablockers was similar in both groups. After up to 17 years of follow-up (median = 11 years, interquartile range = 4-15 years), cumulative incidences of acute myocardial infarction (10.2% vs. 11.8%) or stroke (11% vs. 10%) at median follow-up were similar, but the risks of major cardiovascular events (acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death, 41.2% vs. 33.6%), hospital admission for heart failure (20.9% vs. 11.9%), or cardiovascular death (32.3% vs. 22.1%) were significantly higher for women (p < 0.0005), with a nonsignificant trend to higher overall mortality (45.2% vs. 39.1%, p = 0.07). However, after multivariate adjustment, all these differences disappeared. Conclusion: Although women and men with CCS presented a different clinical profile, and crude rates of major cardiovascular events, heart failure and cardiovascular death were higher in women, female sex was not an independent prognostic factor in this study with up to 17 years of follow-up.