HPVsim: An agent-based model of HPV transmission and cervical disease.

In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set of targets for countries to achieve over the next decade. At the same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in the pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand the reach of prophylactic vaccines, and prevent the acquisition, persistence and progression of oncogenic HPV. Detailed mechanistic modelling can help identify the combinations of current and future strategies to combat cervical cancer. Open-source modelling tools are needed to shift the capacity for such evaluations in-country. Here, we introduce the Human papillomavirus simulator (HPVsim), a new open-source software package for creating flexible agent-based models parameterised with country-specific vital dynamics, structured sexual networks, and co-transmitting HPV genotypes. HPVsim includes a novel methodology for modelling cervical disease progression, designed to be readily adaptable to new forms of screening. The software itself is implemented in Python, has built-in tools for simulating commonly-used interventions, includes a comprehensive set of tests and documentation, and runs quickly (seconds to minutes) on a laptop. Performance is greatly enhanced by HPVsim's multiscale modelling functionality. HPVsim is open source under the MIT License and available via both the Python Package Index (via pip install) and GitHub (hpvsim.org).

Breast cancer survival in India across 11 geographic areas under the National Cancer Registry Programme.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival is a key indicator for assessing the effectiveness of cancer control by a health care system in a specific geographic area. Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in India, accounting for over one quarter of all female cancers. The objective of this study was to estimate the 5-year survival of female patients who were diagnosed with breast cancer between 2012 and 2015 from the existing Population-Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) in India. METHODS: In total, 17,331 patients who had breast cancer diagnosed between 2012 and 2015 from 11 PBCRs were followed until June 30, 2021. Active methods were used to track the vital status of registered breast cancer cases. The study conducted survival analysis by calculating the difference between the date of first diagnosis and the date of death or censoring to estimate observed survival and relative survival using the actuarial survival approach and the Ederer-II approach, respectively. RESULTS: The 5-year age-standardized relative survival (95% confidence interval [CI]) of patients with breast cancer was 66.4% (95% CI, 65.5%-67.3%). Mizoram (74.9%; 95% CI, 68.1%-80.8%), Ahmedabad urban (72.7%; 95% CI, 70.3%-74.9%), Kollam (71.5%; 95% CI, 69.2%-73.6%), and Thiruvananthapuram (69.1%; 95% CI, 67.0%-71.2%) had higher survival rates than the national average. Conversely, Pasighat had the lowest survival rate (41.9%; 95% CI, 14.7%-68.6%). The 5-year observed survival rates for localized, regional, and distant metastasis in the pooled PBCRs were 81.0%, 65.5%, and 18.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall disparity in survival rates was observed across 11 PBCRs, with lower survival rates reported in Manipur, Tripura, and Pasighat. Therefore, it is imperative to implement comprehensive cancer control strategies widely throughout the country.

Burden of female breast cancer in India: estimates of YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs at national and subnational levels based on the national cancer registry programme.

PURPOSE: Female breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality in India, and accounted for 13.5% of new cancer cases and 10% of cancer-related deaths in 2020. This study aims to estimate and report the female BC burden in India at state level from 2012 to 2016 in terms of years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and to project the burden for the year 2025. METHODS: The cancer incidence and mortality data from 28 population-based cancer registries were analysed. The mean mortality to incidence ratio was estimated, and mortality figures were adjusted for underreporting. The burden of female BC was estimated at national and subnational levels using Census data, World Health Organisation's lifetables, disability weights, and the DisMod-II tool. A negative binomial regression is employed to project burden for 2025. RESULTS: The burden of BC among Indian women in 2016 was estimated to be 515.4 DALYs per 100,000 women after age standardization. The burden metrics at state level exhibited substantial heterogeneity. Notably, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, and Delhi had a higher burden of BC than states in the eastern and north-eastern regions. The projection for 2025 indicates to a substantial increase, reaching 5.6 million DALYs. CONCLUSION: The female BC burden in India was significantly high in 2016 and is expected to substantially increase. Undertaking a multidisciplinary, context-specific approach for its prevention and control can address this rising burden.

Burden of cancers in India - estimates of cancer crude incidence, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs for 2021 and 2025 based on National Cancer Registry Program.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is the major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The cancer burden varies within the regions of India posing great challenges in its prevention and control. The national burden assessment remains as a task which relies on statistical models in many developing countries, including India, due to cancer not being a notifiable disease. This study quantifies the cancer burden in India for 2016, adjusted mortality to incidence (AMI) ratio and projections for 2021 and 2025 from the National Cancer Registry Program (NCRP) and other publicly available data sources. METHODS: Primary data on cancer incidence and mortality between 2012 and 2016 from 28 Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs), all-cause mortality from Sample Registration Systems (SRS) 2012-16, lifetables and disability weight from World Health Organization (WHO), the population from Census of India and cancer prevalence using the WHO-DisMod-II tool were used for this study. The AMI ratio was estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method from longitudinal NCRP-PBCR data (2001-16). The burden was quantified at national and sub-national levels as crude incidence, mortality, Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The projections for the years 2021 and 2025 were done by the negative binomial regression model using STATA. RESULTS: The projected cancer burden in India for 2021 was 26.7 million DALYsAMI and expected to increase to 29.8 million in 2025. The highest burden was in the north (2408 DALYsAMI per 100,000) and northeastern (2177 DALYsAMI per 100,000) regions of the country and higher among males. More than 40% of the total cancer burden was contributed by the seven leading cancer sites - lung (10.6%), breast (10.5%), oesophagus (5.8%), mouth (5.7%), stomach (5.2%), liver (4.6%), and cervix uteri (4.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the use of reliable data sources and DisMod-II tools that adhere to the international standard for assessment of national and sub-national cancer burden. A wide heterogeneity in leading cancer sites was observed within India by age and sex. The results also highlight the need to focus on non-leading sites of cancer by age and sex. These findings can guide policymakers to plan focused approaches towards monitoring efforts on cancer prevention and control. The study simplifies the methodology used for arriving at the burden estimates and thus, encourages researchers across the world to take up similar assessments with the available data.

Cancer incidence estimates for 2022 & projection for 2025: Result from National Cancer Registry Programme, India.

Background & objectives: Information on recent cancer statistics is important for planning, monitoring and evaluating cancer control activities. This article aims to provide an update on the cancer incidence estimates in India by sex, age groups and anatomical sites for the year 2022. Methods: The National Cancer Registry Programme Report 2020, reported the cancer incidence from 28 Population-Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) for the years 2012-2016. This was used as the basis to calculate cancer estimates in India. Information pertaining to the population at risk was extracted from the Census of India (2001 and 2011) for the estimation of age-sex stratified population. PBCRs were categorised into the respective State and regions of the country to understand the epidemiology of cancer. The age-specific incidence rate for each specific anatomical site of cancer was applied to the estimated population to derive the number of cancer cases in India for 2022. Results: The estimated number of incident cases of cancer in India for the year 2022 was found to be 14,61,427 (crude rate:100.4 per 100,000). In India, one in nine people are likely to develop cancer in his/her lifetime. Lung and breast cancers were the leading sites of cancer in males and females, respectively. Among the childhood (0-14 yr) cancers, lymphoid leukaemia (boys: 29.2% and girls: 24.2%) was the leading site. The incidence of cancer cases is estimated to increase by 12.8 per cent in 2025 as compared to 2020. Interpretation & conclusions: The cancer incidence is continuing to increase in India. The new estimates will be helpful in planning cancer prevention and control activities through the intervention of early detection, risk reduction and management.

A clinicoepidemiological profile of lung cancers in India - Results from the National Cancer Registry Programme.

Background & objectives: Lung cancer is a significant public health concern in low- and middle-income countries such as India. The present article describes the epidemiology, and clinical profile of lung cancer in India, based on recent data from the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP). Methods: The latest data on lung cancer from the NCRP were collated from 28 population-based cancer registries and 58 hospital-based cancer registries across a five-year (2012-2016) reporting period. Results: The highest age-adjusted incidence rate and mortality (AAMR) was found amongst males and females in the Aizawl district of Mizoram. A significant increase in the annual per cent change of lung cancer incidence was observed in metropolitan cities from 1982 to 2016. About one-third of the cases (36.5%) in males and females (31.7%) were recorded in the age group of 55-64 yr. Adenocarcinoma accounted for about a third (34.3%) of the morphological type in males and half (52.7% ) amongst females. Out of 22,645 recorded lung cancer cases, close to half (44.8%) of the patients presented with distant spread, while over one-third (35.3%) had loco-regional spread of disease at the time of diagnosis. Interpretation & conclusions: Our estimates suggest that the number of cases is expected to rise sharply to 81,219 cases amongst males and 30,109 in females in 2025. The rising incidence and delayed diagnosis of lung cancer in India are grave concerns. The findings of the present study call for scaling up and intensification of lung cancer-specific preventive, early diagnosis and control measures.

Non-communicable diseases as a major contributor to deaths in 12 tribal districts in India.

Background & objectives: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in India. Although studies have reported a high prevalence of NCD in tribal populations, there are limited data pertaining mortality due to NCDs. Therefore, in this study we estimated the proportion of deaths due to NCDs among 15 yr and older age group in tribal districts in India. Methods: We conducted a community-based survey in 12 districts (one per State) with more than 50 per cent tribal population. Data were collected using a verbal autopsy tool from the family member of the deceased. The estimated sample size was 452 deaths per district. We obtained the list of deaths for the reference period of one year and updated it during the survey. The cause of death was assigned using the International Classification of Diseases-10 classification and analyzed the proportions of causes of death. The age-standardized death rate (ASRD) was also estimated. Results: We surveyed 5292 deaths among those above 15 years of age. Overall, NCDs accounted for 66 per cent of the deaths, followed by infectious diseases (15%) and injuries (11%). Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death in 10 of the 12 sites. In East Garo Hills (18%) and Lunglei (26%), neoplasms were the leading cause of death. ASRD due to NCD ranged from 426 in Kinnaur to 756 per 100,000 in East Garo Hills. Interpretation & conclusions: The findings of this community-based survey suggested that NCDs were the leading cause of death among the tribal populations in India. It is hence suggested that control of NCDs should be one of the public health priorities for tribal districts in India.

Preparedness of primary & secondary care health facilities for the management of non-communicable diseases in tribal population across 12 districts in India.

Background and objectives: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are highly prevalent in the tribal populations; however, there are limited data regarding health system preparedness to tackle NCDs among these populations. We estimated the availability of human resources, equipment, drugs, services and knowledge of doctors for NCD management in the selected tribal districts in India. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 12 districts (one from each State) with at least 50 per cent tribal population in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and eight northeastern States. Primary health centres (PHCs), community health centres (CHCs) and district/sub-district hospitals (DHs) were surveyed and data on screening and treatment services, human resources, equipment, drugs and information systems indicators were collected and analysed. The data were presented as proportions. Results: In the present study 177 facilities were surveyed, including 156 PHCs/CHCs and 21 DHs. DHs and the majority (82-96%) of the PHCs/CHCs provided outpatient treatment for diabetes and hypertension. Overall, 97 per cent of PHCs/CHCs had doctors, and 78 per cent had staff nurses. The availability of digital blood pressure monitors ranged from 35 to 43 per cent, and drugs were either not available or inadequate. Among 213 doctors, three-fourths knew the correct criteria for hypertension diagnosis, and a few correctly reported diabetes diagnosis criteria. Interpretation & conclusions: The results of this study suggest that the health system of the studied tribal districts was not adequately prepared to manage NCDs. The key challenges included inadequately trained workforce and a lack of equipment and drugs. It is suggested that capacity building and, procurement and distribution of equipment, drugs and information systems to track NCD patients should be the key focus areas of national programmes.

Regional estimates of noncommunicable diseases associated risk factors among adults in India: results from National Noncommunicable Disease Monitoring Survey.

BACKGROUND: This study describes regional differences and determinants on key noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors in adults from the National NCD Monitoring Survey (NNMS) across six geographic regions of India. METHODS: The NNMS was a cross-sectional multistage cluster survey conducted in 2017-18, on a representative sample of 300 urban and 300 rural primary sampling units (PSU) covering 20 households per PSU. One adult aged 18-69 years per household was selected using the KISH grid. Globally standard survey tools were adapted for data collection. To arrive at regional estimates, the country was divided into six regions (south, north, central, west, east and northeast) based on the distribution of a national sample. The results are presented as proportion with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify NCD risk factor determinants significant in the regions. A p-value < 0.05 was considered for statistical significance. RESULTS: The overall survey response rate was 96.3%. The prevalence of current tobacco (45.7%) and alcohol use (22.3%) was significantly high in the northeast region. The highest proportion of adults from northern India showed low levels of physical activity (49.6%). The prevalence of metabolic risk factors - obesity (12.5%), raised fasting blood glucose (21.2%) and raised blood pressure (35.6%) was highest in south India. The prevalence of raised blood pressure was high in north India (35.2%) similar in proportion to south India. Clustering of ≥3 risk factors (50.1%) and ten-year CVD risk of ≥30% or with existing CVD (18.1%) was highest in south India when compared to other regions. Older age, urban residents, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity were significantly associated with higher odds of raised blood pressure and raised fasting blood glucose. CONCLUSION: The NNMS presents variations in NCD risk factors within the regions of India. It contributes to robust evidence for strengthening interventions and monitoring the progress in reducing NCDs and their associated risk factors.

Performance of equations for estimation of 24-hour urinary sodium from morning fasting urine samples in a multisite study in India.

Background Dietary salt intake is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Estimation of 24-hour salt intake using morning urine samples needs to be validated in the Indian context. We examined the performance of INTERSALT, Tanaka and Kawasaki equations for the estimation of 24-hour urinary sodium from morning fasting urine (MFU) samples. Methods We enrolled 486 adults aged 18-69 years from four regions of India with equal rural/urban and sex representation to provide 24-hour urine samples. The next day, a MFU sample was obtained. Based on the volume and sodium content of the 24-hour urine sample, 24-hour sodium excretion (reference method) was calculated. Sodium levels in the MFU samples were measured along with other parameters required, and the above equations were used to estimate 24-hour urinary sodium levels. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess the degree of agreement between the estimates from the reference method and the three equations. Bland-Altman (BA) plots were used to identify systematic bias and limits of agreement. A difference of 1 g of salt (0.39 g of sodium) between the mean salt intake by 24-hour urine and as estimated by equations was considered acceptable. Results A total of 346 participants provided both the samples. The mean (SD) daily salt intake estimated by the 24-hour urine sample method was 9.9 (5.8) g. ICC was low for all the three equations: highest for Kawasaki (0.16; 95% CI 0.05-0.26) and least for Tanaka (0.12; 0.02-0.22). Only Tanaka equation provided estimates within 1 g of measured 24-hour salt intake (-0.36 g). BA plots showed that as the mean values increased, all the three equations provided lower estimates of salt intake. Conclusion Tanaka equation provided acceptable values of 24-hour salt intake at the population level. However, poor performance of all the equations highlights the need to understand the reasons and develop better methods for the measurement of sodium intake at the population level.

The International Collaboration for Research methods Development in Oncology (CReDO) workshops: shaping the future of global oncology research.

Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) have a disproportionately high burden of cancer and cancer mortality. The unique barriers to optimum cancer care in these regions necessitate context-specific research. The conduct of research in LMICs has several challenges, not least of which is a paucity of formal training in research methods. Building capacity by training early career researchers is essential to improve research output and cancer outcomes in LMICs. The International Collaboration for Research methods Development in Oncology (CReDO) workshop is an initiative by the Tata Memorial Centre and the National Cancer Grid of India to address gaps in research training and increase capacity in oncology research. Since 2015, there have been five CReDO workshops, which have trained more than 250 oncologists from India and other countries in clinical research methods and protocol development. Participants from all oncology and allied fields were represented at these workshops. Protocols developed included clinical trials, comparative effectiveness studies, health services research, and observational studies, and many of these protocols were particularly relevant to cancer management in LMICs. A follow-up of these participants in 2020 elicited an 88% response rate and showed that 42% of participants had made progress with their CReDO protocols, and 73% had initiated other research protocols and published papers. In this Policy Review, we describe the challenges to research in LMICs, as well as the evolution, structure, and impact of CReDO and other similar workshops on global oncology research.

Cancer scenario in North-East India & need for an appropriate research agenda.

Background & objectives: The North-Eastern (NE) region has the highest incidence of cancer in India, and is also burdened by higher prevalence of risk factors and inadequate cancer treatment facilities. The aim of this study was to describe the cancer profile of the NE region, focussing on the cancer sites that have high incidence and to identify research priorities. Methods: Incidence data from population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) in the North-East region (8 States) were utilized and relevant literature was reviewed to identify risk factors. Results: Aizawl district in Mizoram had the highest incidence of cancer in men [age-adjusted rate (AAR) of 269.4 per 100,000]. Among women, Papumpare district of Arunachal Pradesh had the highest incidence (AAR of 219.8) in India. East Khasi Hills district in Meghalaya had the highest incidence of oesophageal cancer (AAR of 75.4 in men and 33.6 in women). Aizawl district in Mizoram had the highest incidence of stomach (AAR-44.2 in men) and Papumpare district had highest incidence of stomach (AAR 27.1 in women), liver (AAR- 35.2 in men and 14.4 in women) and cervical cancers (AAR- 27.7). Lung cancer (AAR- 38.8 in men and 37.9 in women) and gall bladder cancer incidence (AAR- 7.9 in men and 16.2 in women) were highest in Aizawl and Assam (Kamrup urban) PBCRs, respectively. Nagaland had the highest incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (AAR of 14.4 in men and 6.5 in women), a relatively rare cancer in other regions of India. Four States (Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Sikkim and Tripura) in NE had only one cancer treating facility. Interpretation & conclusions: Further research on specific aetiological factors in the region and multi-disciplinary research for development of tools, techniques and guidelines for cancer control are the need of the hour.

Preparedness of primary and secondary health facilities in India to address major noncommunicable diseases: results of a National Noncommunicable Disease Monitoring Survey (NNMS).

BACKGROUND: The monitoring framework for evaluating health system response to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) include indicators to assess availability of affordable basic technologies and essential medicines to treat them in both public and private primary care facilities. The Government of India launched the National Program for Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS) in 2010 to strengthen health systems. We assessed availability of trained human resources, essential medicines and technologies for diabetes, cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases as one of the components of the National Noncommunicable Disease Monitoring Survey (NNMS - 2017-18). METHODS: NNMS was a cross-sectional survey. Health facility survey component covered three public [Primary health centre (PHC), Community health centre (CHC) and District hospital (DH)] and one private primary in each of the 600 primary sampling units (PSUs) selected by stratified multistage random sampling to be nationally representative. Survey teams interviewed medical officers, laboratory technicians, and pharmacists using an adapted World Health Organization (WHO) - Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) tool on handhelds with Open Data Kit (ODK) technology. List of essential medicines and technology was according to WHO - Package of Essential Medicines and Technologies for NCDs (PEN) and NPCDCS guidelines for primary and secondary facilities, respectively. Availability was defined as reported to be generally available within facility premises. RESULTS: Total of 537 public and 512 private primary facilities, 386 CHCs and 334 DHs across India were covered. NPCDCS was being implemented in 72.8% of CHCs and 86.8% of DHs. All essential technologies and medicines available to manage three NCDs in primary care varied between 1.1% (95% CI; 0.3-3.3) in rural public to 9.0% (95% CI; 6.2-13.0) in urban private facilities. In NPCDCS implementing districts, 0.4% of CHCs and 14.5% of the DHs were fully equipped. DHs were well staffed, CHCs had deficits in physiotherapist and specialist positions, whereas PHCs reported shortage of nurse-midwives and health assistants. Training under NPCDCS was uniformly poor across all facilities. CONCLUSION: Both private and public primary care facilities and public secondary facilities are currently not adequately prepared to comprehensively address the burden of NCDs in India.

Health systems challenges and opportunities in tackling non-communicable diseases in rural areas of India.

The increasing burden of non-communicable diseases in rural areas poses new challenges to an already overburdened health systems. We detail these challenges and identify opportunities to address them. The major challenges in service delivery in rural areas include poor accessibility, shortage of adequate manpower especially specialists in rural areas, irregular supply of medicines and lack of adequate diagnostic facilities. This has led to an increased dependency on the private sector resulting in high out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditure. The challenges are amplified by lower health literacy, large pool of informal or untrained healthcare practitioners, and lack of proper referral and follow up. The health system opportunities identified include task-shifting by training of mid-level healthcare providers and practitioners from Indian systems of medicine, widening use of e-health and m-health, community engagement and public-private partnerships. Participatory health governance through community engagement has been shown to improve accountability and quality in health systems. Civil society organizations (CSO) can also improve awareness and health-seeking behaviour. New and evidence-based strategies need to be implemented to address health system challenges for tackling non-communicable diseases in rural areas.

National Stroke Registry Programme in India for Surveillance and Research: Design and Methodology.

The burden of stroke is increasing, and India lacks comparable long-term data on stroke incidence and mortality. Disease surveillance using a registry model can provide long-term data on stroke for linking with public health interventions in stroke prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation. The objectives of the National Stroke Registry Programme (NSRP), India, are to generate reliable data on the incidence of first-ever stroke events in defined populations through a population-based stroke registry (PBSR) and to describe the patterns of care and outcomes of patients with stroke in different treatment settings through a hospital-based stroke registry (HBSR). Continuous systematic collection on a standardized format of diagnostic, treatment, and outcome information on stroke events in persons of defined population (PBSR) and those who attend hospitals (HBSR) is conducted through active data abstraction from review of records from all health facilities and imaging centres that cater to stroke patients. Data are ICD coded, verified, and completed by obtaining survival status of registered patients. IT tools are used for data collection,management and analysis. The NSRP shall establish a standardized stroke surveillance system that would reliably measure stroke incidence, subtypes, treatment patterns, complications, disability, case fatality, and survival. This evidence shall inform health planning of stroke interventions and control activities. It would facilitate improvement in stroke services to improve quality of care and outcomes of stroke. A thrust for research on stroke would be encouraged based on evidence-based hypothesis generation.

Overnutrition: Current scenario & combat strategies.

Large population-based surveys by the Government of India and several other regional studies have reconfirmed the coexisting burden of over- and undernutrition. While time trends from the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds of the National Family Health Survey show declining trends in the prevalence of the underweight, it also highlights increasing rates in the overweight/obesity. Dose-response relationships with different micro- and macronutrient consumption with overweight/obesity prevalence have been established. In this context, it was attempted to identify the specific diet pattern and socio-behavioural determinants of overnutrition along with its combat strategies. This review highlights that while the proportion of chronic energy deficiency is decreasing in India, the intake of micronutrients and food groups continues to be below the recommended dietary allowance set by the Indian Council of Medical Research. Distal factors that determine the nutritional imbalance among Indians are presented under (i) household contextual factors, (ii) peer and socio-cultural influencers, and (iii) business and neighbourhood environment. Accumulation of such factors increases the density of obesogenic environment around individuals. Further, the review offers action points at individual, society and policy levels, presented in a 'logframe matrix' for bringing convergence actions across sectors in consultation with programme managers from different ministries/departments.

Prevalence of Adult Celiac Disease in India: Regional Variations and Associations.

OBJECTIVES: Although celiac disease (CeD) affects 1% of people in the northern part of India, it is believed to be uncommon in the southern and northeastern parts because of significant differences in dietary pattern and ethnicity. We estimated the prevalence of CeD in these three populations. In a subset, we also investigated differences in the prevalence of HLA-DQ 2/8 allelotype and dietary grain consumption. METHODS: A total of 23,331 healthy adults were sampled from three regions of India-northern (n=6207), northeastern (n=8149), and southern (n=8973)-and screened for CeD using IgA anti-tissue transglutaminase antibody. Positive tests were reconfirmed using a second ELISA. CeD was diagnosed if the second test was positive and these participants were further investigated. A subsample of participants was tested for HLA-DQ2/-DQ8 and underwent detailed dietary evaluation. RESULTS: Age-adjusted prevalence of celiac autoantibodies was 1.23% in northern, 0.87% in northeastern, and 0.10% in southern India (P<0.0001). Prevalence of CeD and latent CeD, respectively, was 8.53/1,000 and 3.70/1,000 in northern, 4.66/1,000 and 3.92/1,000 in northeastern, and 0.11/1,000 and 1.22/1,000 in the southern part. The population prevalence of genes determining HLA-DQ2 and/or -DQ8 expression was 38.1% in northern, 31.4% in northeastern, and 36.4% in southern India. Mean daily wheat intake was highest in northern (455 g) compared with northeastern (37 g) or southern part (25 g), whereas daily rice intake showed an inverse pattern. CONCLUSIONS: CeD and latent CeD were most prevalent in northern India and were the least in southern India. The prevalence correlated with wheat intake and did not reflect differences in the genetic background.