Modeling User Reputation in Online Social Networks: The Role of Costs, Benefits, and Reciprocity.

We analyze an agent-based model to estimate how the costs and benefits of users in an online social network (OSN) impact the robustness of the OSN. Benefits are measured in terms of relative reputation that users receive from their followers. They can be increased by direct and indirect reciprocity in following each other, which leads to a core-periphery structure of the OSN. Costs relate to the effort to login, to maintain the profile, etc. and are assumed as constant for all users. The robustness of the OSN depends on the entry and exit of users over time. Intuitively, one would expect that higher costs lead to more users leaving and hence to a less robust OSN. We demonstrate that an optimal cost level exists, which maximizes both the performance of the OSN, measured by means of the long-term average benefit of its users, and the robustness of the OSN, measured by means of the lifetime of the core of the OSN. Our mathematical and computational analyses unfold how changes in the cost level impact reciprocity and subsequently the core-periphery structure of the OSN, to explain the optimal cost level.

Quantifying individual influence in leading-following behavior of Bechstein's bats.

Leading-following behavior as a way of transferring information about the location of resources is wide-spread in many animal societies. It represents active information transfer that allows a given social species to reach collective decisions in the presence of limited information. Although leading-following behavior has received much scientific interest in the form of field studies, there is a need for systematic methods to quantify and study the individual contributions in this information transfer, which would eventually lead us to hypotheses about the individual mechanisms underlying this behaviour. In this paper we propose a general methodology that allows us to (a) infer individual leading-following behaviour from discrete observational data and (b) quantify individual influence based on methods from social network analysis. To demonstrate our methodology, we analyze longitudinal data of the roosting behavior of two different colonies of Bechstein's bats in different years. Regarding (a) we show how the inference of leading-following events can be calibrated from data making it a general approach when only discrete observations are available. This allows us to address (b) by constructing social networks in which nodes represent individual bats and directed and weighted links-the leading-following events. We then show how social network theory can be used to define and quantify individual influence in a way that reflects the dynamics of the specific social network. We find that individuals can be consistently ranked regarding their influence in the information transfer. Moreover, we identify a small set of individuals that play a central role in leading other bats to roosts. In the case of Bechstein's bats this finding can direct future studies on the individual-level mechanisms that result in such collective pattern. More generally, we posit that our data-driven methodology can be used to quantify leading-following behavior and individual impact in other animal systems, solely based on discrete observational data.

The digital traces of bubbles: feedback cycles between socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy.

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we focus on Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has experienced periods of rapid increase in exchange rates (price) followed by sharp decline; we hypothesize that these fluctuations are largely driven by the interplay between different social phenomena. We thus quantify four socio-economic signals about Bitcoin from large datasets: price on online exchanges, volume of word-of-mouth communication in online social media, volume of information search and user base growth. By using vector autoregression, we identify two positive feedback loops that lead to price bubbles in the absence of exogenous stimuli: one driven by word of mouth, and the other by new Bitcoin adopters. We also observe that spikes in information search, presumably linked to external events, precede drastic price declines. Understanding the interplay between the socio-economic signals we measured can lead to applications beyond cryptocurrencies to other phenomena that leave digital footprints, such as online social network usage.

Quantifying the effects of social influence.

How do humans respond to indirect social influence when making decisions? We analysed an experiment where subjects had to guess the answer to factual questions, having only aggregated information about the answers of others. While the response of humans to aggregated information is a widely observed phenomenon, it has not been investigated quantitatively, in a controlled setting. We found that the adjustment of individual guesses depends linearly on the distance to the mean of all guesses. This is a remarkable, and yet surprisingly simple regularity. It holds across all questions analysed, even though the correct answers differ by several orders of magnitude. Our finding supports the assumption that individual diversity does not affect the response to indirect social influence. We argue that the nature of the response crucially changes with the level of information aggregation. This insight contributes to the empirical foundation of models for collective decisions under social influence.