Causal Assessment of Income Inequality on Self-Rated Health and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Policy Points Income is thought to impact a broad range of health outcomes. However, whether income inequality (how unequal the distribution of income is in a population) has an additional impact on health is extensively debated. Studies that use multilevel data, which have recently increased in popularity, are necessary to separate the contextual effects of income inequality on health from the effects of individual income on health. Our systematic review found only small associations between income inequality and poor self-rated health and all-cause mortality. The available evidence does not suggest causality, although it remains methodologically flawed and limited, with very few studies using natural experimental approaches or examining income inequality at the national level. CONTEXT: Whether income inequality has a direct effect on health or is only associated because of the effect of individual income has long been debated. We aimed to understand the association between income inequality and self-rated health (SRH) and all-cause mortality (mortality) and assess if these relationships are likely to be causal. METHODS: We searched Medline, ISI Web of Science, Embase, and EconLit (PROSPERO: CRD42021252791) for studies considering income inequality and SRH or mortality using multilevel data and adjusting for individual-level socioeconomic position. We calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) for poor SRH and relative risk ratios (RRs) for mortality from random-effects meta-analyses. We critically appraised included studies using the Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized Studies - of Interventions tool. We assessed certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework and causality using Bradford Hill (BH) viewpoints. FINDINGS: The primary meta-analyses included 2,916,576 participants in 38 cross-sectional studies assessing SRH and 10,727,470 participants in 14 cohort studies of mortality. Per 0.05-unit increase in the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, the ORs and RRs (95% confidence intervals) for SRH and mortality were 1.06 (1.03-1.08) and 1.02 (1.00-1.04), respectively. A total of 63.2% of SRH and 50.0% of mortality studies were at serious risk of bias (RoB), resulting in very low and low certainty ratings, respectively. For SRH and mortality, we did not identify relevant evidence to assess the specificity or, for SRH only, the experiment BH viewpoints; evidence for strength of association and dose-response gradient was inconclusive because of the high RoB; we found evidence in support of temporality and plausibility. CONCLUSIONS: Increased income inequality is only marginally associated with SRH and mortality, but the current evidence base is too methodologically limited to support a causal relationship. To address the gaps we identified, future research should focus on income inequality measured at the national level and addressing confounding with natural experiment approaches.

The changing shape of general practice in Scotland: the rise of the 'megapractice'.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the trends in the nature of general practices in Scotland between 2014/15 and 2023. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive ecological study. METHODS: We obtained data from Public Health Scotland and used general practitioner (GP) practice codes, practice names, and the General Medical Council (GMC) numbers of their listed GPs to describe trends in practice characteristics and to identify individual practices that were likely to be operating as a single entity. RESULTS: Defining practice entities is difficult because different GP practice codes are often retained when GPs are performing across multiple practices. If GP practice codes alone are used, the median practice list size increased from 5094 to 5881, and the mean from 5588 to 6289, between 2013/14 and 2020/21. There was one outlier practice that grew to have over 45,000 patients registered by 2020/21. However, this underestimates the extent of this new mega-practice phenomenon. Using the GMC numbers of GPs listed as performers to identify where the same GPs are working across multiple GP practice codes, we identified a series of mega-practices that span across health board areas and which have experienced a dramatic increase in their list size (with the two largest having list sizes of over 101,000 and 77,000 patients, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to better understand: how mega-practices provide services and whether this differs from other practices; where financial rewards accumulate within mega-practices; differences in staffing between mega-practices and other models; and the impacts mega-practices have on the quality and continuity of care and on health and inequality outcomes.

The increasing significance of disease severity in a burden of disease framework.

Recent estimates have reiterated that non-fatal causes of disease, such as low back pain, headaches and depressive disorders, are amongst the leading causes of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). For these causes, the contribution of years lived with disability (YLD) - put simply, ill-health - is what drives DALYs, not mortality. Being able to monitor trends in YLD closely is particularly relevant for countries that sit high on the socio-demographic spectrum of development, as it contributes more than half of all DALYs. There is a paucity of data on how the population-level occurrence of disease is distributed according to severity, and as such, the majority of global and national efforts in monitoring YLD lack the ability to differentiate changes in severity across time and location. This raises uncertainties in interpreting these findings without triangulation with other relevant data sources. Our commentary aims to bring this issue to the forefront for users of burden of disease estimates, as its impact is often easily overlooked as part of the fundamental process of generating DALY estimates. Moreover, the wider health harms of the COVID-19 pandemic have underlined the likelihood of latent and delayed demand in accessing vital health and care services that will ultimately lead to exacerbated disease severity and health outcomes. This places increased importance on attempts to be able to differentiate by both the occurrence and severity of disease.

What is missing from how we measure and understand the experience of poverty and deprivation in population health analyses?

BACKGROUND: Explaining why some populations are healthier than others is a core task of epidemiology. Socioeconomic position (SEP), encompassing a broad range of exposures relating to economic circumstances, social class and deprivation, is an important explanation, but lacks a comprehensive framework for understanding the range of relevant exposures it encompasses. METHODS: We reviewed existing literature on experiential accounts of poverty through database searching and the identification of relevant material by experts. We mapped relevant concepts into a complex systems diagram. We developed this diagram through a process of consultation with academic experts and experts with direct experience of poverty. Finally, we categorized concepts on the basis of whether they have previously been measured, their importance to the causal flow of the diagram, and their importance to those consulted, creating a list of priorities for future measurement. RESULTS: There are a great many aspects of SEP which are not frequently measured or used in epidemiological research and, for some of these, work is needed to better conceptualize and develop measures. Potentially important missing aspects include stigma, social class processes, access to education, sense of lost potential, neighbourhoods, fairness and justice, emotional labour, masking poverty, being (in)visible, costs, and experiences of power. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses seeking to understand the extent to which SEP exposures explain differences in the health of populations are likely to benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the range and inter-relationships between different aspects of SEP. More research to better conceptualize and measure these aspects is now needed.

A critical reflection on the use of improvement science approaches in public health.

OBJECTIVE: 'Improvement science' is used to describe specific quality improvement methods (including tests of change and statistical process control). The approach is spreading from clinical settings to population-wide interventions and is being extended from supporting the adoption of proven interventions to making generalisable claims about new interventions. The objective of this narrative review is to evaluate the strengths and risks of current improvement science practice, particularly in relation to how they might be used in population health. METHODS: A purposive sampling of published studies to identify how improvement science methods are being used and for what purpose. The setting was Scotland and studies that focused on health and wellbeing outcomes. RESULTS: We have identified a range of improvement science approaches which provide practitioners with accessible tools to assess small-scale changes in policy and practice. The strengths of such approaches are that they facilitate consistent implementation of interventions already known to be effective and motivate and empower staff to make local improvements. However, we also identified a number of potential risks. In particular, their use to assess the effectiveness of new interventions often seems to pay insufficient attention to random variation, measurement bias, confounding and ethical issues. CONCLUSIONS: The use of current improvement science methods to generate evidence of effectiveness for population-wide interventions is problematic and risks unjustified claims of effectiveness, inefficient resource use and harm to those not offered alternative effective interventions. Newer methodological approaches offer alternatives and should be more widely considered.

Inequalities in population health loss by multiple deprivation: COVID-19 and pre-pandemic all-cause disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused almost unprecedented change across health, education, the economy and social interaction. It is widely understood that the existing mechanisms which shape health inequalities have resulted in COVID-19 outcomes following this same, familiar, pattern. Our aim was to estimate inequalities in the population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020. Our secondary aim was to scale overall, and inequalities in, COVID-19 DALYs against the level of pre-pandemic inequalities in all-cause DALYs, derived from the Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) study. METHODS: National deaths and daily case data were input into the European Burden of Disease Network consensus model to estimate DALYs. Total Years of Life Lost (YLL) were estimated for each area-based deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years Lived with Disability were proportionately distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on YLL estimates. Inequalities were measured by: the range, Relative Index of Inequality (RII), Slope Index of Inequality (SII), and attributable DALYs were estimated by using the least deprived quintile as a reference. RESULTS: Marked inequalities were observed across several measures. The SII range was 2048 to 2289 COVID-19 DALYs per 100,000 population. The rate in the most deprived areas was around 58% higher than the mean population rate (RII = 1.16), with 40% of COVID-19 DALYs attributed to differences in area-based deprivation. Overall DALYs due to COVID-19 ranged from 7 to 20% of the annual pre-pandemic impact of inequalities in health loss combined across all causes. CONCLUSION: The substantial population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland was not shared equally across areas experiencing different levels of deprivation. The extent of inequality due to COVID-19 was similar to averting all annual DALYs due to diabetes. In the wider context of population health loss, overall ill-health and mortality due to COVID-19 was, at most, a fifth of the annual population health loss due to inequalities in multiple deprivation. Implementing effective policy interventions to reduce health inequalities must be at the forefront of plans to recover and improve population health.

Trends in infant mortality and stillbirth rates in Scotland by socio-economic position, 2000-2018: a longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: As Scotland strives to become a country where children flourish in their early years, it is faced with the challenge of socio-economic health inequalities, which are at risk of widening amidst austerity policies. The aim of this study was to explore trends in infant mortality rates (IMR) and stillbirth rates by socio-economic position (SEP) in Scotland, between 2000 and 2018, inclusive. METHODS: Data for live births, infant deaths, and stillbirths between 2000 and 2018 were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Annual IMR and stillbirth rates were calculated and visualised for all of Scotland and when stratified by SEP. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the association between SEP and infant mortality and stillbirth events, and to assess for break points in trends over time. The slope (SII) and relative (RII) index of inequality compared absolute and relative socio-economic inequalities in IMR and stillbirth rates before and after 2010. RESULTS: IMR fell from 5.7 to 3.2 deaths per 1000 live births between 2000 and 2018, with no change in trend identified. Stillbirth rates were relatively static between 2000 and 2008 but experienced accelerated reduction from 2009 onwards. When stratified by SEP, inequalities in IMR and stillbirth rates persisted throughout the study and were greatest amongst the sub-group of post-neonates. Although comparison of the SII and RII in IMR and stillbirths before and after 2010 suggested that inequalities remained stable, descriptive trends in mortality rates displayed a 3-year rise in the most deprived quintiles from 2016 onwards. CONCLUSION: Whilst Scotland has experienced downward trends in IMR and stillbirth rates between 2000 and 2018, the persistence of socio-economic inequalities and suggestion that mortality rates amongst the most deprived groups may be worsening warrants further action to improve maternal health and strengthen support for families with young children.

Health inequalities, fundamental causes and power: towards the practice of good theory.

Reducing health inequalities remains a challenge for policy makers across the world. Beginning from Lewin's famous dictum that "there is nothing as practical as a good theory", this paper begins from an appreciative discussion of 'fundamental cause theory', emphasizing the elegance of its theoretical encapsulation of the challenge, the relevance of its critical focus for action, and its potential to support the practical mobilisation of knowledge in generating change. Moreover, it is argued that recent developments in the theory, provide an opportunity for further theoretical development focused more clearly on the concept of power (Dickie et al. 2015). A critical focus on power as the essential element in maintaining, increasing or reducing social and economic inequalities - including health inequalities - can both enhance the coherence of the theory, and also enhance the capacity to challenge the roots of health inequalities at different levels and scales. This paper provides an initial contribution by proposing a framework to help to identify the most important sources, forms and positions of power, as well as the social spaces in which they operate. Subsequent work could usefully test, elaborate and adapt this framework, or indeed ultimately replace it with something better, to help focus actions to reduce inequalities.

Theory driven analysis of social class and health outcomes using UK nationally representative longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: Social class is frequently used as a means of ranking the population to expose inequalities in health, but less often as a means of understanding the social processes of causation. We explored how effectively different social class mechanisms could be measured by longitudinal cohort data and whether those measures were able to explain health outcomes. METHODS: Using a theoretically informed approach, we sought to map variables within the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to five different social class mechanisms: social background and early life circumstances; habitus and distinction; exploitation and domination; location within market relations; and power relations. Associations between the SF-36 physical, emotional and general health outcomes at age 50 years and the social class measures within NCDS were then assessed through separate multiple linear regression models. R2 values were used to quantify the proportion of variance in outcomes explained by the independent variables. RESULTS: We were able to map the NCDS variables to the each of the social class mechanisms except 'Power relations'. However, the success of the mapping varied across mechanisms. Furthermore, although relevant associations between exposures and outcomes were observed, the mapped NCDS variables explained little of the variation in health outcomes: for example, for physical functioning, the R2 values ranged from 0.04 to 0.10 across the four mechanisms we could map. CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated both the potential and the limitations of available cohort studies in measuring aspects of social class theory. The relatively small amount of variation explained in the outcome variables in this study suggests that these are imperfect measures of the different social class mechanisms. However, the study lays an important foundation for further research to understand the complex interactions, at various life stages, between different aspects of social class and subsequent health outcomes.

Impact of Political Economy on Population Health: A Systematic Review of Reviews.

Background. Although there is a large literature examining the relationship between a wide range of political economy exposures and health outcomes, the extent to which the different aspects of political economy influence health, and through which mechanisms and in what contexts, is only partially understood. The areas in which there are few high-quality studies are also unclear. Objectives. To systematically review the literature describing the impact of political economy on population health. Search Methods. We undertook a systematic review of reviews, searching MEDLINE, Embase, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, ProQuest Public Health, Sociological Abstracts, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, EconLit, SocINDEX, Web of Science, and the gray literature via Google Scholar. Selection Criteria. We included studies that were a review of the literature. Relevant exposures were differences or changes in policy, law, or rules; economic conditions; institutions or social structures; or politics, power, or conflict. Relevant outcomes were any overall measure of population health such as self-assessed health, mortality, life expectancy, survival, morbidity, well-being, illness, ill health, and life span. Two authors independently reviewed all citations for relevance. Data Collection and Analysis. We undertook critical appraisal of all included reviews by using modified Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) criteria and then synthesized narratively giving greater weight to the higher-quality reviews. Main Results. From 4912 citations, we included 58 reviews. Both the quality of the reviews and the underlying studies within the reviews were variable. Social democratic welfare states, higher public spending, fair trade policies, extensions to compulsory education provision, microfinance initiatives in low-income countries, health and safety policy, improved access to health care, and high-quality affordable housing have positive impacts on population health. Neoliberal restructuring seems to be associated with increased health inequalities and higher income inequality with lower self-rated health and higher mortality. Authors' Conclusions. Politics, economics, and public policy are important determinants of population health. Countries with social democratic regimes, higher public spending, and lower income inequalities have populations with better health. There are substantial gaps in the synthesized evidence on the relationship between political economy and health, and there is a need for higher-quality reviews and empirical studies in this area. However, there is sufficient evidence in this review, if applied through policy and practice, to have marked beneficial health impacts. Public Health Implications. Policymakers should be aware that social democratic welfare state types, countries that spend more on public services, and countries with lower income inequalities have better self-rated health and lower mortality. Research funders and researchers should be aware that there remain substantial gaps in the available evidence base. One such area concerns the interrelationship between governance, polities, power, macroeconomic policy, public policy, and population health, including how these aspects of political economy generate social class processes and forms of discrimination that have a differential impact across social groups. This includes the influence of patterns of ownership (of land and capital) and tax policies. For some areas, there are many lower-quality reviews, which leave uncertainties in the relationship between political economy and population health, and a high-quality review is needed. There are also areas in which the available reviews have identified primary research gaps such as the impact of changes to housing policy, availability, and tenure.

Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas.

BACKGROUND: Even after accounting for deprivation, mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to the rest of Western Europe. Higher mortality from alcohol- and drug-related deaths (DRDs), violence and suicide (particularly in young adults) contribute to this 'excess' mortality. Age-period and cohort effects help explain the trends in alcohol-related deaths and suicide, respectively. This study investigated whether age, period or cohort effects might explain recent trends in DRDs in Scotland and relate to exposure to the changing political context from the 1980s. METHODS: We analysed data on DRDs from 1979 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: The peak age for DRDs fell around 1990, especially for males as rates increased for those aged 18 to 45 years. There was evidence of a cohort effect, especially among males living in the most deprived areas; those born between 1960 and 1980 had an increased risk of DRD, highest for those born 1970 to 1975. The cohort effect started around a decade earlier in the most deprived areas compared to the rest of the population. CONCLUSION: Age-standardised rates for DRDs among young adults rose during the 1990s in Scotland due to an increased risk of DRD for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially for males living in the most deprived areas. This cohort effect is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to the changing social, economic and political contexts of the 1980s created a delayed negative health impact.

Right Here Right Now (RHRN) pilot study: testing a method of near-real-time data collection on the social determinants of health.

BACKGROUND: Informing policy and practice with up-to-date evidence on the social determinants of health is an ongoing challenge. One limitation of traditional approaches is the time-lag between identification of a policy or practice need and availability of results. The Right Here Right Now (RHRN) study piloted a near-real-time data-collection process to investigate whether this gap could be bridged. METHODS: A website was developed to facilitate the issue of questions, data capture and presentation of findings. Respondents were recruited using two distinct methods - a clustered random probability sample, and a quota sample from street stalls. Weekly four-part questions were issued by email, Short Messaging Service (SMS or text) or post. Quantitative data were descriptively summarised, qualitative data thematically analysed, and a summary report circulated two weeks after each question was issued. The pilot spanned 26 weeks. RESULTS: It proved possible to recruit and retain a panel of respondents providing quantitative and qualitative data on a range of issues. The samples were subject to similar recruitment and response biases as more traditional data-collection approaches. Participants valued the potential to influence change, and stakeholders were enthusiastic about the findings generated, despite reservations about the lack of sample representativeness. Stakeholders acknowledged that decision-making processes are not flexible enough to respond to weekly evidence. CONCLUSION: RHRN produced a process for collecting near-real-time data for policy-relevant topics, although obtaining and maintaining representative samples was problematic. Adaptations were identified to inform a more sustainable model of near-real-time data collection and dissemination in the future.

Obesity in Scotland: a persistent inequality.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a health problem in its own right and a risk factor for other conditions such as cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in Scotland between 1995 and 2008 with socio-economic inequalities persisting in adults over time and increasing in children. This paper explores changes in the underlying distribution of body mass index (BMI) which is less well understood. METHODS: Using data from the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) between 1995 and 2014 for adults aged 18-64 years, we calculated population distributions for BMI for the population overall, and for age, sex and deprivation strata. We used SHeS data for children aged 2-15 years between 1998 and 2014, in addition to data from the Child Health Systems Programme (CHSP) collected from primary one (P1) children in participating local authorities, to describe the overall trends and to compare trends in inequalities by deprivation strata. RESULTS: Amongst adults, the BMI distribution shifted upwards, with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight between 1995 and 2008 before subsequently stabilising across the distribution. In men the prevalence of obesity showed a linear deprivation gradient in 1995 but over time obesity declined in the least deprived quintile while the remaining four quintiles converged (and stabilised). In contrast, a persistent and generally linear gradient is evident among women for most of the 1995-2014 period. For those aged 2-15 years, obesity increased between 1998 and 2014 for the most deprived 40% of children contrasted with stable trends for the least deprived. The surveillance data for P1 children in Scotland showed a persistent inequality between 2005/06 and 2014/15 though it was less clear if this is widening. CONCLUSIONS: The BMI distribution for adults increased between 1995 and 2008 with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight before stabilising across the distribution. Inequalities in obesity persist for adults (with different underlying patterns evident for men and women), and may be widening for children. Actions to reduce the obesogenic environment, including structural changes not dependent on individual agency, are urgently needed if the long-term health, social and inequality consequences of obesity are to be reduced.

Tracking Biases: An Update to the Validity and Reliability of Alcohol Retail Sales Data for Estimating Population Consumption in Scotland.

AIMS: To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption. METHODS: Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases. RESULTS: Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from -4% in 2010 to -7% in 2013. CONCLUSION: Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated.

Occupational class differences in later life hospital use by women who survived to age 80: the Renfrew and Paisley prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: population ageing challenges the sustainability of healthcare provision. OBJECTIVE: to investigate occupational class differences in hospital use in women aged 80+ years. METHODS: a total of 8,353 female residents, aged 45-64, took part in the Renfrew and Paisley prospective cohort study in 1972-76. Information on general and mental health hospital discharges was provided from computerised linkage with the Scottish Morbidity Records data to 31 December 2012. Numbers of admissions and bed-days after the 80th birthday were calculated for all and specific causes. Rate ratios by occupational class were calculated using negative binomial regression analysis, adjusting for age and a range of risk factors. RESULTS: four thousand and four hundred and seven (56%) women survived to age 80 and had 17,563 general admissions thereafter, with a mean stay of 19.4 days. There were no apparent relationships with occupational class for all general admissions, but lower occupational class was associated with higher rate ratios for coronary heart disease and stroke and lower rate ratios for cancer. Adjustment for risk factors could not fully explain the raised rate ratios. Bed-day use was higher in lower occupational classes, especially for stroke. There were strong associations with mental health admissions, especially dementia. Compared with the highest occupational class, admission rate ratios for dementia were higher for the lowest occupational class (adjusted rate ratio = 2.60, 95% confidence interval 1.79-3.77). CONCLUSION: in this population, there were no socio-economic gradients seen in hospital utilisation for general admissions in old age. However, occupational class was associated with mental health admissions, coronary heart disease, stroke and cancer.

No mean city: adolescent health and risk behaviours in a UK urban setting.

BACKGROUND: The adult population of Glasgow has worse health than in the rest of Scotland, only partially explained by deprivation. Little is known about the health of young Glaswegians. METHODS: The 2010 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey data were analysed using multilevel modelling to compare outcomes in Glasgow relative to the rest of Scotland. RESULTS: Glasgow adolescents had similar or better self-reported health on some measures--e.g. adjusting for age and sex, OR for 'very happy' was 0.93 (95% CI = (0.75, 1.14))--and the beta coefficient for positive GHQ-12 was 2.79 (0.72, 4.85) compared with the rest of Scotland. However, many health aspects were worse in Glasgow especially for eating and sedentary behaviour, subjective health and aggression, e.g. the OR for 'daily consumption of vegetables' was 0.59 (0.46, 0.77), of reporting 'excellent health' was 0.66 (0.50, 0.87); headaches was 1.40 (1.09, 1.80); however drinking alcohol in the past week was lower (OR 0.71 (0.50, 0.99)) and smoking, similar. Adjustment for family affluence and school type marginally attenuated the association with Glasgow. CONCLUSIONS: The worse health experienced by Glasgow adults is only partially seen among young people in Glasgow; however, these are seen at the youngest ages in the study.

Always looking on the bright side of life? Exploring optimism and health in three UK post-industrial urban settings.

BACKGROUND: Many theories have been proposed to explain the high levels of 'excess' mortality (i.e. higher mortality over and above that explained by differences in socio-economic circumstances) shown in Scotland-and, especially, in its largest city, Glasgow-compared with elsewhere in the UK. One such proposal relates to differences in optimism, given previously reported evidence of the health benefits of an optimistic outlook. METHODS: A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Optimism was measured by the Life Orientation Test (Revised) (LOT-R), and compared between the cities by means of multiple linear regression models, adjusting for any differences in sample characteristics. RESULTS: Unadjusted analyses showed LOT-R scores to be similar in Glasgow and Liverpool (mean score (SD): 14.7 (4.0) for both), but lower in Manchester (13.9 (3.8)). This was consistent in analyses by age, gender and social class. Multiple regression confirmed the city results: compared with Glasgow, optimism was either similar (Liverpool: adjusted difference in mean score: -0.16 (95% CI -0.45 to 0.13)) or lower (Manchester: -0.85 (-1.14 to -0.56)). CONCLUSIONS: The reasons for high levels of Scottish 'excess' mortality remain unclear. However, differences in psychological outlook such as optimism appear to be an unlikely explanation.

Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data.

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality. METHODS: Alcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010-11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed. RESULTS: Per adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.