How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US?

Although groundwater is a major resource of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western US. Recharge is expected to decrease slightly (highly certain) in the West (-1.6%) and Southwest (-2.9%) regions in the near future and decrease considerably (highly certain) in the South region (-10.6%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge (highly certain) in both the near (+5.0%) and far (+9.0%) future. In general, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. This study also shows that climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future.

Nitrogen critical loads and management alternatives for N-impacted ecosystems in California.

Empirical critical loads for N deposition effects and maps showing areas projected to be in exceedance of the critical load (CL) are given for seven major vegetation types in California. Thirty-five percent of the land area for these vegetation types (99,639 km(2)) is estimated to be in excess of the N CL. Low CL values (3-8 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) were determined for mixed conifer forests, chaparral and oak woodlands due to highly N-sensitive biota (lichens) and N-poor or low biomass vegetation in the case of coastal sage scrub (CSS), annual grassland, and desert scrub vegetation. At these N deposition critical loads the latter three ecosystem types are at risk of major vegetation type change because N enrichment favors invasion by exotic annual grasses. Fifty-four and forty-four percent of the area for CSS and grasslands are in exceedance of the CL for invasive grasses, while 53 and 41% of the chaparral and oak woodland areas are in exceedance of the CL for impacts on epiphytic lichen communities. Approximately 30% of the desert (based on invasive grasses and increased fire risk) and mixed conifer forest (based on lichen community changes) areas are in exceedance of the CL. These ecosystems are generally located further from emissions sources than many grasslands or CSS areas. By comparison, only 3-15% of the forested and chaparral land areas are estimated to be in exceedance of the NO(3)(-) leaching CL. The CL for incipient N saturation in mixed conifer forest catchments was 17 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). In 10% of the CL exceedance areas for all seven vegetation types combined, the CL is exceeded by at least 10 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), and in 27% of the exceedance areas the CL is exceeded by at least 5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Management strategies for mitigating the effects of excess N are based on reducing N emissions and reducing site N capital through approaches such as biomass removal and prescribed fire or control of invasive grasses by mowing, selective herbicides, weeding or domestic animal grazing. Ultimately, decreases in N deposition are needed for long-term ecosystem protection and sustainability, and this is the only strategy that will protect epiphytic lichen communities.

Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models.

Worldwide, the application of river basin water quality models is increasing, often imposed by law. It is, thus, important to know the degree of uncertainty associated with these models and their application to a specific watershed. These uncertainties lead to errors that are revealed when model outputs are compared to observations. Such uncertainty is typically described by calculating the residuals. However, residuals should not be seen as an estimate of total uncertainty, since through the calibration process, the residuals may be reduced by over-adjustment to the data, which is typically the case for over-parameterised models. Over-adjustment during a calibration period can also lead to highly biased results when the model is applied to other periods or environmental conditions. The total model uncertainties are, therefore, assessed by four components: the sum of the squares of the residuals (SSQ), parameter uncertainties (that can be ignored when their error is much smaller than SSQ), input data uncertainties, and an additional predictive uncertainty that is expressed when the model appears to be biased when it is applied for data other than the data used for calibration. The sources are ranked according to a quantification criterion (magnitude) as well as an identification criterion that depends on the number of observations that are covered by the confidence region. This approach is illustrated with SWAT2003 simulations for flow and sediment of Honey Creek, a tributary of the Sandusky River basin (Ohio). The results show the dominance of the model uncertainty. The input data uncertainty is less important.

Nitrate in polluted mountainous catchments with Mediterranean climates.

The mountains of southern California receive some of the highest rates of nitrogen (N) deposition in the world (approximately 40 kg ha(-1) year(-1)). These high rates of deposition have translated into consistently high levels of nitrate (NO3-) in some streams of the San Bernardino Mountains. However, not all streams are exhibiting these high levels of NO3-. Perennial streams have high NO3- concentrations (approximately 200 micromoles l(-1)) while ephemeral streams do not (approximately 20 micromoles l(-1)). This difference points to groundwater as the source of the NO3- observed in streams. Furthermore, the evidence indicates a differential impact of N deposition on terrestrial and aquatic systems in Mediterranean climates, with aquatic systems being impacted more quickly. The primary reason for this difference involves the asynchrony between the time that atmospheric deposition occurs (summer), the time period of maximum soil NO3- availability and leaching (winter), and the time of maximum plant N demand (spring). Our results indicate that semiarid Mediterranean climate systems behave differently from more humid systems in that, because of this asynchrony, aquatic systems may not be indicative of changes in terrestrial ecosystem response. These differences lead us to the conclusion that the extrapolation of impacts from humid to Mediterranean climates is problematic and the concept of N saturation may need to be revisited for semiarid and seasonally dry systems.

Aerosol and precipitation chemistry in the southwestern United States: spatiotemporal trends and interrelationships.

This study characterizes the spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol and precipitation composition at six sites across the United States Southwest between 1995 and 2010. Precipitation accumulation occurs mostly during the wintertime (December-February) and during the monsoon season (July-September). Rain and snow pH levels are usually between 5-6, with crustal-derived species playing a major role in acid neutralization. These species (Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Na+) exhibit their highest concentrations between March and June in both PM2.5 and precipitation due mostly to dust. Crustal-derived species concentrations in precipitation exhibit positive relationships with [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and Cl-, suggesting that acidic gases likely react with and partition to either crustal particles or hydrometeors enriched with crustal constituents. Concentrations of particulate [Formula: see text] show a statistically significant correlation with rain [Formula: see text] unlike snow [Formula: see text], which may be related to some combination of the vertical distribution of [Formula: see text] (and precursors) and the varying degree to which [Formula: see text]-enriched particles act as cloud condensation nuclei versus ice nuclei in the region. The coarse : fine aerosol mass ratio was correlated with crustal species concentrations in snow unlike rain, suggestive of a preferential role of coarse particles (mainly dust) as ice nuclei in the region. Precipitation [Formula: see text] : [Formula: see text] ratios exhibit the following features with potential explanations discussed: (i) they are higher in precipitation as compared to PM2.5; (ii) they exhibit the opposite annual cycle compared to particulate [Formula: see text] : [Formula: see text] ratios; and (iii) they are higher in snow relative to rain during the wintertime. Long-term trend analysis for the monsoon season shows that the [Formula: see text] : [Formula: see text] ratio in rain increased at the majority of sites due mostly to air pollution regulations of [Formula: see text] precursors.

Empirical and simulated critical loads for nitrogen deposition in California mixed conifer forests.

Empirical critical loads (CL) for N deposition were determined from changes in epiphytic lichen communities, elevated NO(3)(-) leaching in streamwater, and reduced fine root biomass in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at sites with varying N deposition. The CL for lichen community impacts of 3.1 kg ha(-1) year(-1) is expected to protect all components of the forest ecosystem from the adverse effects of N deposition. Much of the western Sierra Nevada is above the lichen-based CL, showing significant changes in lichen indicator groups. The empirical N deposition threshold and that simulated by the DayCent model for enhanced NO(3)(-)leaching were 17 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). DayCent estimated that elevated NO(3)(-) leaching in the San Bernardino Mountains began in the late 1950s. Critical values for litter C:N (34.1), ponderosa pine foliar N (1.1%), and N concentrations (1.0%) in the lichen Letharia vulpina ((L.) Hue) are indicative of CL exceedance.

N saturation symptoms in chaparral catchments are not reversed by prescribed fire.

Fire is a critical ecosystem process in many landscapes and is particularly dominant in the chaparral shrublands of southern California which are also exposed to high levels of atmospheric N deposition. Few studies have addressed the combined effects of these two disturbance factors. In this study we evaluate the hydrologic and biogeochemical response of a control and a prescribed burn catchment over a 15-year period. Streamwater nitrate concentrations and export in the burned catchment were higher than those in the unburned catchment for 7-10 years after the burn and concentrations remained high in both catchments during the entire study. Therefore, fire is not an effective mitigation tool for N deposition in these semi-arid systems. Additionally, the extended N export in this system indicates that chaparral ecosystems do not recovertheir N retention capabilities as rapidly as humid systems do when subjected to disturbance.

Attenuation of tick-borne encephalitis virus by structure-based site-specific mutagenesis of a putative flavivirus receptor binding site.

The impact of a specific region of the envelope protein E of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus on the biology of this virus was investigated by a site-directed mutagenesis approach. The four amino acid residues that were analyzed in detail (E308 to E311) are located on the upper-lateral surface of domain III according to the X-ray structure of the TBE virus protein E and are part of an area that is considered to be a potential receptor binding determinant of flaviviruses. Mutants containing single amino acid substitutions, as well as combinations of mutations, were constructed and analyzed for their virulence in mice, growth properties in cultured cells, and genetic stability. The most significant attenuation in mice was achieved by mutagenesis of threonine 310. Combining this mutation with deletion mutations in the 3'-noncoding region yielded mutants that were highly attenuated. The biological effects of mutation Thr 310 to Lys, however, could be reversed to a large degree by a mutation at a neighboring position (Lys 311 to Glu) that arose spontaneously during infection of a mouse. Mutagenesis of the other positions provided evidence for the functional importance of residue 308 (Asp) and its charge interaction with residue 311 (Lys), whereas residue 309 could be altered or even deleted without any notable consequences. Deletion of residue 309 was accompanied by a spontaneous second-site mutation (Phe to Tyr) at position 332, which in the three-dimensional structure of protein E is spatially close to residue 309. The information obtained in this study is relevant for the development of specific attenuated flavivirus strains that may serve as future live vaccines.

Sequence analysis and genetic classification of tick-borne encephalitis viruses from Europe and Asia.

The epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis virus was investigated by comparative sequence analysis of virus strains isolated in endemic areas of Europe and Asia. Phylogenetic relationships were determined from the nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the major envelope (E) protein of 16 newly sequenced strains and nine previously published sequences. Three genetic lineages could be clearly distinguished, corresponding to a European, a Far Eastern and a Siberian subtype. Amino acids characteristic for each of the subtypes ('signature' amino a cids) were identified and their location in the atomic structure of protein E was determined. The degree of variation between strains within subtypes was low and exhibited a maximum of only 2.2% at the amino acid level. A maximum difference of 5.6% was found between the three subtypes, which is in the range of variation reported for other flaviviruses.

Spontaneous and engineered deletions in the 3' noncoding region of tick-borne encephalitis virus: construction of highly attenuated mutants of a flavivirus.

The flavivirus genome is a positive-strand RNA molecule containing a single long open reading frame flanked by noncoding regions (NCR) that mediate crucial processes of the viral life cycle. The 3' NCR of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus can be divided into a variable region that is highly heterogeneous in length among strains of TBE virus and in certain cases includes an internal poly(A) tract and a 3'-terminal conserved core element that is believed to fold as a whole into a well-defined secondary structure. We have now investigated the genetic stability of the TBE virus 3' NCR and its influence on viral growth properties and virulence. We observed spontaneous deletions in the variable region during growth of TBE virus in cell culture and in mice. These deletions varied in size and location but always included the internal poly(A) element of the TBE virus 3' NCR and never extended into the conserved 3'-terminal core element. Subsequently, we constructed specific deletion mutants by using infectious cDNA clones with the entire variable region and increasing segments of the core element removed. A virus mutant lacking the entire variable region was indistinguishable from wild-type virus with respect to cell culture growth properties and virulence in the mouse model. In contrast, even small extensions of the deletion into the core element led to significant biological effects. Deletions extending to nucleotides 10826, 10847, and 10870 caused distinct attenuation in mice without measurable reduction of cell culture growth properties, which, however, were significantly restricted when the deletion was extended to nucleotide 10919. An even larger deletion (to nucleotide 10994) abolished viral viability. In spite of their high degree of attenuation, these mutants efficiently induced protective immune responses even at low inoculation doses. Thus, 3'-NCR deletions represent a useful technique for achieving stable attenuation of flaviviruses that can be included in the rational design of novel flavivirus live vaccines.

Adaptation of tick-borne encephalitis virus to BHK-21 cells results in the formation of multiple heparan sulfate binding sites in the envelope protein and attenuation in vivo.

Propagation of the flavivirus tick-borne encephalitis virus in BHK-21 cells selected for mutations within the large surface glycoprotein E that increased the net positive charge of the protein. In the course of 16 independent experiments, 12 different protein E mutation patterns were identified. These were located in all three of the structural domains and distributed over almost the entire upper and lateral surface of protein E. The mutations resulted in the formation of local patches of predominantly positive surface charge. Recombinant viruses carrying some of these mutations in a defined genetic backbone showed heparan sulfate (HS)-dependent phenotypes, resulting in an increased specific infectivity and binding affinity for BHK-21 cells, small plaque formation in porcine kidney cells, and significant attenuation of neuroinvasiveness in adult mice. Our results corroborate the notion that the selection of attenuated HS binding mutants is a common and frequent phenomenon during the propagation of viruses in cell culture and suggest a major role for HS dependence in flavivirus attenuation. Recognition of this principle may be of practical value for designing attenuated flavivirus strains in the future.