Changes in U.S. Adolescent Nicotine Vaping Prevalence from 2022 to 2023: The Role of Reduced Initiation Three Years Earlier during the Onset of the Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of adolescent nicotine vaping declined substantially after the COVID-19 pandemic onset in the U.S. during the Spring of 2020. This study examines whether the decline continued from 2022 to 2023, and the extent to which any decline reflects the lasting influence of lowered levels of initiation three years earlier, at the onset of the pandemic. METHODS: Data for this study come from nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys of U.S. 12th grade (n=9,854) and 10th grade (n=14,663) students administered in the Spring of 2022 and 2023. The main outcomes are past 12-month nicotine vaping and grade first ever vaped nicotine. RESULTS: From 2022 to 2023 prevalence of past 12-month nicotine vaping declined a relative 20% for 12th grade students, from 24.3% to 19.1%, and for 10th grade students by a relative 16%, from 17.8% to 15.1%. Among 12th grade students who vaped nicotine in the past 12 months, a significant decline in prevalence took place only among those who first ever vaped nicotine in 9th grade, and not among those who first ever vaped nicotine in any other grade. Among 10th grade students who vaped nicotine in the past 12 months, a significant decline in prevalence took place only among those who first ever vaped nicotine in 7th grade, and not among those who first ever vaped nicotine in any other grade. CONCLUSION: These results contribute national-level evidence that forestalled initiation of nicotine use for one year may have a lasting effect that continues to lower adolescents' levels of use many years afterwards. IMPLICATIONS: These findings caution against looking to contemporaneous policy for explanations of the large, one-year decline in nicotine vaping from 2022 to 2023. It can be tempting to interpret the decline as a victory for current efforts to restrict adolescent access to vaping products, or current education/media campaigns that warn adolescents of the dangers of vaping. The findings of this study suggest, instead, that the one-year vaping declines primarily result from declines in initiation that were set into place three years ago during the pandemic onset, more so than the immediate result of contemporaneous policy.

Adolescent Δ8-THC and Marijuana Use in the US.

Importance: Gummies, flavored vaping devices, and other cannabis products containing psychoactive hemp-derived Δ8-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) are increasingly marketed in the US with claims of being federally legal and comparable to marijuana. National data on prevalence and correlates of Δ8-THC use and comparisons to marijuana use among adolescents in the US are lacking. Objective: To estimate the self-reported prevalence of and sociodemographic and policy factors associated with Δ8-THC and marijuana use among US adolescents in the past 12 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationally representative cross-sectional analysis included a randomly selected subset of 12th-grade students in 27 US states who participated in the Monitoring the Future Study in-school survey during February to June 2023. Exposures: Self-reported sex, race, ethnicity, and parental education; census region; state-level adult-use (ie, recreational) marijuana legalization (yes vs no); and state-level Δ8-THC policies (regulated vs not regulated). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was self-reported Δ8-THC and marijuana use in the past 12 months (any vs no use and number of occasions used). Results: In the sample of 2186 12th-grade students (mean age, 17.7 years; 1054 [48.9% weighted] were female; 232 [11.1%] were Black, 411 [23.5%] were Hispanic, 1113 [46.1%] were White, and 328 [14.2%] were multiracial), prevalence of self-reported use in the past 12 months was 11.4% (95% CI, 8.6%-14.2%) for Δ8-THC and 30.4% (95% CI, 26.5%-34.4%) for marijuana. Of those 295 participants reporting Δ8-THC use, 35.4% used it at least 10 times in the past 12 months. Prevalence of Δ8-THC use was lower in Western vs Southern census regions (5.0% vs 14.3%; risk difference [RD], -9.4% [95% CI, -15.2% to -3.5%]; adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 0.35 [95% CI, 0.16-0.77]), states in which Δ8-THC was regulated vs not regulated (5.7% vs 14.4%; RD, -8.6% [95% CI, -12.9% to -4.4%]; aRR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.23-0.74]), and states with vs without legal adult-use marijuana (8.0% vs 14.0%; RD, -6.0% [95% CI, -10.8% to -1.2%]; aRR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.35-0.91]). Use in the past 12 months was lower among Hispanic than White participants for Δ8-THC (7.3% vs 14.4%; RD, -7.2% [95% CI, -12.2% to -2.1%]; aRR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.34-0.87]) and marijuana (24.5% vs 33.0%; RD, -8.5% [95% CI, -14.9% to -2.1%]; aRR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.59-0.94]). Δ8-THC and marijuana use prevalence did not differ by sex or parental education. Conclusions and Relevance: Δ8-THC use prevalence is appreciable among US adolescents and is higher in states without marijuana legalization or existing Δ8-THC regulations. Prioritizing surveillance, policy, and public health efforts addressing adolescent Δ8-THC use may be warranted.

Recent, national trends in US adolescent use of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes.

OBJECTIVE: In light of the current U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposal to ban menthol cigarettes, this study updates trends in menthol cigarette use among adolescents age 13-18 years up to the year 2020. The study considers a potential role for the ban to reduce black/non-black disparities in menthol cigarette use, as well as a counterargument that a ban is not necessary because menthol use is already diminishing. METHODS: Data are from annual, cross-sectional, nationally representative Monitoring the Future (MTF) surveys of 85 547 8th, 10th and 12th grade students surveyed between 2012 and 2020. Analyses include trends in past 30-day menthol and non-menthol cigarette smoking among the total adolescent population, as well as stratified by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Declines in adolescent menthol and non-menthol cigarette smoking continued through 2020 so that in 2018-2020 past 30-day prevalence for each was less than 1% for non-Hispanic black adolescents and less than 2.2% for non-black adolescents. For non-Hispanic black adolescents no smoking declines in mentholated or non-mentholated cigarette use from 2015-2017 to 2018-2020 were statistically significant, in part because prevalence levels approached a floor effect and had little room to fall further. Menthol levels were lower for non-Hispanic black versus all other adolescents in all study years. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing declines in adolescent menthol prevalence indicate that both menthol prevalence and also black/non-black disparities in its use are steadily decreasing. However, these decreases in adolescence will take decades to reach later ages through generational replacement. Efforts to accelerate menthol decreases will require new initiatives to increase cessation among adult menthol users.

The great decline in adolescent cigarette smoking since 2000: consequences for drug use among US adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: Adolescent cigarette smoking declined steadily and substantially from 2000 to 2018. This paper considers the potential consequences of this 'great decline' for the prevalence of other drug use among adolescents. METHODS: Data are annual, cross-sectional, nationally representative Monitoring the Future surveys of more than 1.2 million US students in 12th, 10th and 8th grades from 2000 to 2018. Analyses include trends in the past 12 months' non-medical amphetamine, tranquillisers and opioid use overall, among ever and never cigarette smokers, and projected if adolescent cigarette smoking levels had remained at 2000 levels. RESULTS: Within groups of ever and never cigarette smokers, the prevalence for each of the three substances has either changed little or overall increased in 2018 as compared with 2000. When the two groups were combined into one pool, the overall prevalence for each of the drugs declined by about half. The decline resulted from the growing group of never smokers, whose levels of non-medical drug use over the study period were at least four times lower than the levels of ever smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the 'gateway' prediction that declines in cigarette smoking among adolescents pull downward their non-medical use of amphetamines, tranquillisers and opioids. Continuing to reduce adolescent smoking through policy and programmatic prevention efforts should have further positive spillover effects on adolescent drug use.

The Influence of College Attendance on Risk for Marijuana Initiation in the United States: 1977 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: To examine a potential increase in marijuana initiation among US college students as compared with their age peers not in college before and after 2013, a watershed year for increasing tolerance of marijuana use in the United States. METHODS: Data come from the Monitoring the Future study, which has followed longitudinal panels drawn from annual nationally representative, baseline samples of 12th-grade students starting with the class of 1976. We studied panel members aged 19 to 22 years who had never used marijuana by 12th grade between 1977 and 2015. RESULTS: College as a risk factor for marijuana initiation has increased significantly since 2013. The increased probability of past-year marijuana use for those enrolled versus not enrolled in college was 51% in 2015, 41% in 2014, and 31% in 2013; it averaged 17% to 22% from 1977 to 2012 among youths who had never used marijuana by 12th grade. CONCLUSIONS: College has grown as a risk factor for marijuana initiation since 2013. Public Health Implications. College students are in position to usher in new increases in population marijuana use unless colleges soon address the issue with new or modified programs for marijuana prevention and intervention.

Age-Specific Prevalence of Binge and High-Intensity Drinking Among U.S. Young Adults: Changes from 2005 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: This study examined changes during the past decade, from 2005 to 2015, in binge and high-intensity drinking in 7 separate age groups of U.S. 12th graders and young adults. METHODS: National longitudinal data (N = 6,711) from Monitoring the Future were used to examine trends in consuming 5+, 10+, and 15+ drinks on the same occasion in the past 2 weeks from ages 18 to 29/30 overall and by gender. Results were compared with trends in past 12-month and 30-day alcohol use for the same age groups. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2015, binge (5+) and high-intensity drinking (10+, 15+) generally decreased for individuals in their early 20s, remained somewhat stable for individuals in their mid-20s, and increased for individuals at the end of young adulthood (age 29/30). The observed historical trends in binge and high-intensity drinking were similar to those for past 12-month and past 30-day alcohol use for those aged 18 to 20, but diverged for most other age groups in young adulthood. Trends were generally similar for men and women, except that the increase in prevalence began earlier in young adulthood for women than for men. CONCLUSIONS: Binge and high-intensity drinking among U.S. 12th graders and young adults are dynamic phenomena. Prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing the harms resulting from 5+, 10+, and 15+ drinking should acknowledge and focus on differences in trends in these behaviors by age and gender.

What are kids vaping? Results from a national survey of US adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To examine what substances US youth vape. METHODS: Data come from Monitoring the Future, an annual, nationally representative survey of USA 12th-grade, 10th-grade and 8th-grade students. Respondents reported what substance they vaped the last time they used a vaporiser such as an e-cigarette. RESULTS: Among students who had ever used a vaporiser, 65-66% last used 'just flavouring' in 12th, in 10th and in 8th grade, more than all other responses combined. In all three grades, the percentage using 'just flavouring' was above 57% for males, females, African-Americans, Hispanics, Whites, and students both with and without a parent with a college degree. Nicotine use came in a distant second, at about 20% in 12th and 10th grade and 13% in 8th grade. Taking into account youth who vaped nicotine at last use increases national estimates of tobacco/nicotine prevalence in the past 30 days by 24-38% above and beyond cigarette smoking, which is substantial but far less than estimates that assume all vaporiser users inhale nicotine. CONCLUSIONS: These results challenge the common assumption that all vaporiser users inhale nicotine. They (a) call into question the designation of vaporisers and e-cigarettes as ENDS ('Electronic Nicotine Delivery System'), (b) suggest that the recent rise in adolescent vaporiser use does not necessarily indicate a nicotine epidemic, and (c) indicate that vaporiser users can be candidates for primary prevention programmes. Finally, the results suggest the importance of developing different rationales for the regulation of vaporiser devices as compared to the regulation of substances marketed for vaporiser use.

E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine vaping as a predictor of future cigarette smoking among youth with and without previous cigarette smoking experience. A secondary aim is to investigate whether vaping may desensitise youth to the dangers of smoking. METHODS: Analysis of prospective longitudinal panel data from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. The analysis is based on 347 12th grade students who were part of a randomly selected subsample that completed in-school surveys in 2014 and were resurveyed 1-year later. RESULTS: Among youth who had never smoked a cigarette by 12th grade, baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (relative risk (RR)=4.78) more likely to report past-year cigarette smoking at follow-up, even among youth who reported the highest possible level of perceived risk for cigarette smoking at baseline. Among 12th grade students who had smoked in the past but had not recently smoked at baseline, recent vapers were twice (RR=2.15) as likely to report smoking in the past 12 months at the follow-up. Vaping did not predict cessation of smoking among recent smokers at baseline. Among never-smokers at baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (RR=4.73) more likely to move away from the perception of cigarettes as posing a 'great risk' of harm, a finding consistent with a desensitisation process. CONCLUSIONS: These results contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting vaping as a one-way bridge to cigarette smoking among youth. Vaping as a risk factor for future smoking is a strong, scientifically-based rationale for restricting youth access to e-cigarettes.

The Influence of Men's Military Service on Smoking Across the Life Course.

The military is described as a social context that contributes to the (re-)initiation or intensification of cigarette smoking. We draw on data from the 1985-2014 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) to conduct complementary sub-studies of the influence of military service on men's smoking outcomes across the life course. Descriptive findings from an age-period-cohort analysis of NSDUH data document higher probabilities of current smoking and heavy smoking among veteran men across a broad range of cohorts and at all observed ages. Findings from sibling fixed-effects Poisson models estimated on the WLS data document longer durations of smoking among men who served in the military and no evidence that selection explains the observed relationship. Together, these results provide novel and potentially generalizable evidence that participation in the military in early adulthood exerts a causal influence on smoking across the life course.

E-Cigarettes and the Drug Use Patterns of Adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines the role of e-cigarettes in the drug use patterns of adolescents. Of specific interest is whether adolescent e-cigarette users fall into a group of (1) youth who do not use traditional drugs of abuse or (2) polysubstance users. METHODS: Using latent class analysis, we identify major "classes" of substance users on the basis of recent use of e-cigarettes, alcohol, marijuana, cigarettes, and prescription drugs. Analyses are conducted separately for adolescents in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades. Data come from 16 615 participants in the 2014 Monitoring the Future survey. RESULTS: Youth who do not use traditional drugs of abuse account for about 50% of e-cigarette users in 8th grade, 35% in 10th grade, and 17% in 12th grade. These youth come from a large "low-level users" group found in each grade, characterized by low probability of use for all substances (e-cigarette probability in this group for 8th graders = .046; 10th graders = .071; 12th graders = .027). Other e-cigarette users come from a smaller, "poly-users" group found in each grade, characterized by high-to-moderate probabilities (.83-.21) of using e-cigarettes and other substances. Specific to 12th grade is a third, additional polysubstance group characterized by high likelihood of e-cigarette use (.93). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of e-cigarette users who do not use traditional drugs of abuse is larger at younger ages. Longitudinal panel studies starting at 8th and 10th grades may best inform the current debate on whether e-cigarette use is a risk or protective factor for future transition to the use of other substances. IMPLICATIONS: The proportion of e-cigarette users who do not use traditional drugs of abuse is larger at younger ages. Longitudinal panel studies starting at 8th and 10th grades may best inform the current debate on whether e-cigarette use is a risk or protective factor for future transition to the use of other substances.

Parental and adolescent health behaviors and pathways to adulthood.

This paper examines associations among parental and adolescent health behaviors and pathways to adulthood. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we identify a set of latent classes describing pathways into adulthood and examine health-related predictors of these pathways. The identified pathways are consistent with prior research using other sources of data. Results also show that both adolescent and parental health behaviors differentiate pathways. Parental and adolescent smoking are associated with lowered probability of the higher education pathway and higher likelihood of the work and the work & family pathways (entry into the workforce soon after high school completion). Adolescent drinking is positively associated with the work pathway and the higher education pathway, but decreases the likelihood of the work & family pathway. Neither parental nor adolescent obesity are associated with any of the pathways to adulthood. When combined, parental/adolescent smoking and adolescent drinking are associated with displacement from the basic institutions of school, work, and family.

Cannabis reduction among adolescents as spillover from successful tobacco control.

BACKGROUND: National programs that reduce adolescent cannabis use warrant renewed attention in light of current discussions to reform cannabis legislation, including the possibility of legalization for recreational use. This study measures the size of a decrease in a country's prevalence of adolescent cannabis use that accompanies a decrease in its prevalence of adolescents who had ever smoked a cigarette. METHODS: Data are from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD), which is a collaborative effort of more than 40 European countries to surveil adolescent substance use. This study uses data from the seven survey administrations in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. The main analysis is a fixed-effect regression analysis of country-level, four-year changes in adolescent lifetime cannabis use prevalence on country-level, four-year changes in adolescent lifetime cigarette use prevalence. RESULTS: Decreases in the national prevalence of adolescents who had ever smoked a cigarette were accompanied by decreases half as large in national prevalence of adolescent lifetime cannabis use. CONCLUSION: For European countries considering the legalization of adult recreational cannabis use, tobacco control can offer a tool to help counter potential increases in cannabis use among adolescents.

Nicotine use among reservation-area American Indian adolescents compared with a national sample.

BACKGROUND: Past research has found significant nicotine use disparities for reservation-area American Indian adolescents when compared to national levels. However, adolescent nicotine use has changed markedly, with reduced smoking and rapid increases in nicotine vaping. This study presents 2021-2022 prevalence estimates of tobacco product use, perceived harm and availability for reservation-area American Indian youth, with comparisons to the Monitoring the Future (MTF) national study. METHODS: Participants were 8th, 10th and 12th grade students. American Indian data were 33 reservation-area schools in 2021-2022 (n=2420); MTF data were 308 schools in Spring 2022 (n=31,438). Measures were lifetime, 30-day cigarette smoking, smokeless tobacco use, and nicotine vaping; past-year nicotine vaping; daily smoking; perceived harmfulness and availability of these tobacco products. Prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were computed by grade. RESULTS: Estimated prevalence of lifetime, monthly and daily cigarette smoking among American Indian 8th and 10th graders was higher than national levels. Nicotine vaping prevalence was similar between samples. American Indian students were less likely to report tobacco product use poses great risk, but also less likely to report tobacco products are easily available. CONCLUSIONS: Although estimated smoking prevalence among American Indian 8th and 10th graders was higher than national levels, prevalence appears lower than reported in earlier studies, suggesting declining disparities. Prevalence of nicotine vaping among reservation-area American Indian adolescents generally mirrors the national population; however, a lower percentage reported regular nicotine vaping poses a serious risk. This discrepancy suggests a need for prevention and intervention efforts culturally tailored for this population.

The effects of the military's antidrug policies over the life course: the case of past-year hallucinogen use.

We analyze long-term trends in past-year hallucinogen use among veterans as compared to nonveterans. This topic is theoretically strategic because the military adopted stringent and successful antidrug policies in the mid-1980s, which serves as a natural experiment to examine the potential long-term impact of comprehensive drug policies on illegal drug use. Drawing on self-reported data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health in years 1985, 1988, and 1990-2010, the analysis uses age-period-cohort analysis to update trends in past-year hallucinogen use and to examine the impact of veteran status. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that a stringent antidrug policy can lead to a life-long reduction in hallucinogen use. Among birth cohorts who were young adults immediately before the implementation of the antidrug policies (those in the 1960-1964 birth cohort) odds of past-year hallucinogen use were twice as high for veterans as compared to nonveterans over the life course. This difference disappeared among birth cohorts that were young adults after the antidrug policies were implemented, when the prevalence of past-year hallucinogen use would be expected to be higher for veterans because of their significantly higher rates of illegal drug use in adolescence. After the drug-testing policies were implemented veterans actually had significantly lower prevalence of past-year hallucinogen use in comparison to nonveterans among the subgroup of respondents who reported a history of illegal drug use before age 18 (OR = .77, p < .01). These trends across veterans and nonveterans were not explained by trends in recruits' tendencies for illegal drug use. These findings point to service in today's armed forces as a turning point that, overall, leads to a lasting, lifelong reduction in substance use.