RESUMO
BACKGROUND: To inform optimal management of HIV viremia on tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD), we examined viral load (VL) outcomes of a large cohort of adult PWH on TLD in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of adult PWH who had ≥1 VL after initiating TLD during January 2017-February 2023. VLs were categorized as undetectable (≤50âcopies/ml), low low-level viremia (LLV, 51-199âcopies/ml), high LLV (200-999âcopies/ml), virologic nonsuppression (VLNS, ≥1000âcopies/ml), and virologic failure (VF, ≥2 consecutive VLNS results). Among patients with ≥2 VLs on TLD, we described how viremia changed over time and examined virologic outcomes after VF. We identified predictors of subsequent VLNS using mixed-effects logistic regression and conducted planned contrasts between levels of VL result and regimen types. RESULTS: Analysis of 82,984 VL pairs from 47,531 patients demonstrated viral resuppression to ≤50âcopies/ml at follow-up VL in 66.7% of those with initial low LLV, 59.1% of those with initial high LLV, and 48.9% of those with initial VLNS. Of 662 patients with a follow-up VL after VF, 94.6% stayed on TLD; of which 57.8% (359/621) were undetectable at next VL without regimen change. Previous low LLV [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.74, 1.56-1.93], high LLV (aOR 2.35, 2.08-2.65), and VLNS (aOR 6.45, 5.81-7.16) were associated with increasingly higher odds of subsequent VLNS, whereas a previously undetectable VL (aOR 1.08, 0.99-1.71) on TLD was not. CONCLUSIONS: Despite increased odds of subsequent VLNS, most PWH with detectable viremia on TLD, including those with VF, will resuppress to an undetectable VL without a regimen change.
Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV , Infecções por HIV , Compostos Heterocíclicos com 3 Anéis , Lamivudina , Oxazinas , Piperazinas , Piridonas , Tenofovir , Carga Viral , Viremia , Humanos , Masculino , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Feminino , Compostos Heterocíclicos com 3 Anéis/uso terapêutico , Lamivudina/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Tenofovir/uso terapêutico , Viremia/tratamento farmacológico , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nigéria , Estudos Longitudinais , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Virologic suppression has been defined using a HIV viral load of less than 1000âcopies/ml. Low-level viremia (51-999âcopies/ml) is associated with an increased risk of virologic failure and HIV drug resistance. METHODS: Retrospective data from persons with HIV (PWH) who initiated ART between January 2016 and September 2022 in Nigeria were analyzed for virologic suppression at cut-off values less than 1000âcopies/ml. RESULTS: In 2022, virologic suppression at less than 1000âcopies/ml was 95.7%. Using cut-off values of less than 400, less than 200 and less than 50âcopies/ml, virologic suppression was 94.2%, 92.5%, and 87%, respectively. DISCUSSION: Monitoring virologic suppression using lower cut-off values, alongside differentiated management of low-level viremia, may help Nigeria achieve HIV epidemic control targets.
Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV , Infecções por HIV , Humanos , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Viremia/tratamento farmacológico , Carga ViralRESUMO
Diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) among young children (<5 years) is challenging due to the paucibacillary nature of clinical disease and clinical similarities to other childhood diseases. We used machine learning to develop accurate prediction models of microbial confirmation with simply defined and easily obtainable clinical, demographic, and radiologic factors. We evaluated eleven supervised machine learning models (using stepwise regression, regularized regression, decision tree, and support vector machine approaches) to predict microbial confirmation in young children (<5 years) using samples from invasive (reference-standard) or noninvasive procedure. Models were trained and tested using data from a large prospective cohort of young children with symptoms suggestive of TB in Kenya. Model performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC), accuracy metrics. (i.e., sensitivity, specificity), F-beta scores, Cohen's Kappa, and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient. Among 262 included children, 29 (11%) were microbially confirmed using any sampling technique. Models were accurate at predicting microbial confirmation in samples obtained from invasive procedures (AUROC range: 0.84-0.90) and from noninvasive procedures (AUROC range: 0.83-0.89). History of household contact with a confirmed case of TB, immunological evidence of TB infection, and a chest x-ray consistent with TB disease were consistently influential across models. Our results suggest machine learning can accurately predict microbial confirmation of M. tuberculosis in young children using simply defined features and increase the bacteriologic yield in diagnostic cohorts. These findings may facilitate clinical decision making and guide clinical research into novel biomarkers of TB disease in young children.
RESUMO
HIV infection is a significant independent risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease and death. We summarize COVID-19 vaccine responses in people with HIV (PWH). A systematic literature review of studies from January 1, 2020, to March 31, 2022, of COVID-19 vaccine immunogenicity in PWH from multiple databases was performed. Twenty-eight studies from 12 countries were reviewed. While 22 (73%) studies reported high COVID-19 vaccine seroconversion rates in PWH, PWH with lower baseline CD4 counts, CD4/CD8 ratios, or higher baseline viral loads had lower seroconversion rates and immunologic titers. Data on vaccine-induced seroconversion in PWH are reassuring, but more research is needed to evaluate the durability of COVID-19 vaccine responses in PWH.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: HIV transmission can occur with a viral load of at least 200 copies per mL of blood and low-level viraemia can lead to virological failure; the threshold level at which risk for virological failure is conferred is uncertain. To better understand low-level viraemia prevalence and outcomes, we analysed retrospective longitudinal data from a large cohort of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using previously collected longitudinal patient data, we estimated rates of virological suppression (≤50 copies per mL), low-level viraemia (51-999 copies per mL), virological non-suppression (≥1000 copies per mL), and virological failure (≥2 consecutive virological non-suppression results) among people living with HIV aged 18 years and older who initiated and received at least 24 weeks of ART at 1005 facilities in 18 Nigerian states. We analysed risk for low-level viraemia, virological non-suppression, and virological failure using log-binomial regression and mixed-effects logistic regression. FINDINGS: At first viral load for 402â668 patients during 2016-21, low-level viraemia was present in 64â480 (16·0%) individuals and virological non-suppression occurred in 46â051 (11·4%) individuals. Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological failure (adjusted relative risk 2·20, 95% CI 1·98-2·43; p<0·0001). Compared with patients with virological suppression, patients with low-level viraemia, even at 51-199 copies per mL, had increased odds of low-level viraemia and virological non-suppression at next viral load; patients on optimised ART (ie, integrase strand transfer inhibitors) had lower odds than those on non-integrase strand transfer inhibitors for the same low-level viraemia range (eg, viral load ≥1000 copies per mL following viral load 400-999 copies per mL, integrase strand transfer inhibitor: odds ratio 1·96, 95% CI 1·79-2·13; p<0·0001; non-integrase strand transfer inhibitor: 3·21, 2·90-3·55; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological non-suppression and failure. Programmes should revise monitoring benchmarks and targets from less than 1000 copies per mL to less than 50 copies per mL to strengthen clinical outcomes and track progress to epidemic control. FUNDING: None.