Cell-phone traces reveal infection-associated behavioral change.

Epidemic preparedness depends on our ability to predict the trajectory of an epidemic and the human behavior that drives spread in the event of an outbreak. Changes to behavior during an outbreak limit the reliability of syndromic surveillance using large-scale data sources, such as online social media or search behavior, which could otherwise supplement healthcare-based outbreak-prediction methods. Here, we measure behavior change reflected in mobile-phone call-detail records (CDRs), a source of passively collected real-time behavioral information, using an anonymously linked dataset of cell-phone users and their date of influenza-like illness diagnosis during the 2009 H1N1v pandemic. We demonstrate that mobile-phone use during illness differs measurably from routine behavior: Diagnosed individuals exhibit less movement than normal (1.1 to 1.4 fewer unique tower locations; [Formula: see text]), on average, in the 2 to 4 d around diagnosis and place fewer calls (2.3 to 3.3 fewer calls; [Formula: see text]) while spending longer on the phone (41- to 66-s average increase; [Formula: see text]) than usual on the day following diagnosis. The results suggest that anonymously linked CDRs and health data may be sufficiently granular to augment epidemic surveillance efforts and that infectious disease-modeling efforts lacking explicit behavior-change mechanisms need to be revisited.

Novel application of one-step pooled molecular testing and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia among rapid diagnostic test negative samples in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Detection of malaria parasitaemia in samples that are negative by rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) requires resource-intensive molecular tools. While pooled testing using a two-step strategy provides a cost-saving alternative to the gold standard of individual sample testing, statistical adjustments are needed to improve accuracy of prevalence estimates for a single step pooled testing strategy. METHODS: A random sample of 4670 malaria RDT negative dried blood spot samples were selected from a mass testing and treatment trial in Asembo, Gem, and Karemo, western Kenya. Samples were tested for malaria individually and in pools of five, 934 pools, by one-step quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Maximum likelihood approaches were used to estimate subpatent parasitaemia (RDT-negative, qPCR-positive) prevalence by pooling, assuming poolwise sensitivity and specificity was either 100% (strategy A) or imperfect (strategy B). To improve and illustrate the practicality of this estimation approach, a validation study was constructed from pools allocated at random into main (734 pools) and validation (200 pools) subsets. Prevalence was estimated using strategies A and B and an inverse-variance weighted estimator and estimates were weighted to account for differential sampling rates by area. RESULTS: The prevalence of subpatent parasitaemia was 14.5% (95% CI 13.6-15.3%) by individual qPCR, 9.5% (95% CI (8.5-10.5%) by strategy A, and 13.9% (95% CI 12.6-15.2%) by strategy B. In the validation study, the prevalence by individual qPCR was 13.5% (95% CI 12.4-14.7%) in the main subset, 8.9% (95% CI 7.9-9.9%) by strategy A, 11.4% (95% CI 9.9-12.9%) by strategy B, and 12.8% (95% CI 11.2-14.3%) using inverse-variance weighted estimator from poolwise validation. Pooling, including a 20% validation subset, reduced costs by 52% compared to individual testing. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to individual testing, a one-step pooled testing strategy with an internal validation subset can provide accurate prevalence estimates of PCR-positivity among RDT-negatives at a lower cost.

Development of a new barcode-based, multiplex-PCR, next-generation-sequencing assay and data processing and analytical pipeline for multiplicity of infection detection of Plasmodium falciparum.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous infection with multiple malaria parasite strains is common in high transmission areas. Quantifying the number of strains per host, or the multiplicity of infection (MOI), provides additional parasite indices for assessing transmission levels but it is challenging to measure accurately with current tools. This paper presents new laboratory and analytical methods for estimating the MOI of Plasmodium falciparum. METHODS: Based on 24 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified as stable, unlinked targets across 12 of the 14 chromosomes within P. falciparum genome, three multiplex PCRs of short target regions and subsequent next generation sequencing (NGS) of the amplicons were developed. A bioinformatics pipeline including B4Screening pathway removed spurious amplicons to ensure consistent frequency calls at each SNP location, compiled amplicons by SNP site diversity, and performed algorithmic haplotype and strain reconstruction. The pipeline was validated by 108 samples generated from cultured-laboratory strain mixtures in different proportions and concentrations, with and without pre-amplification, and using whole blood and dried blood spots (DBS). The pipeline was applied to 273 smear-positive samples from surveys conducted in western Kenya, then providing results into StrainRecon Thresholding for Infection Multiplicity (STIM), a novel MOI estimator. RESULTS: The 24 barcode SNPs were successfully identified uniformly across the 12 chromosomes of P. falciparum in a sample using the pipeline. Pre-amplification and parasite concentration, while non-linearly associated with SNP read depth, did not influence the SNP frequency calls. Based on consistent SNP frequency calls at targeted locations, the algorithmic strain reconstruction for each laboratory-mixed sample had 98.5% accuracy in dominant strains. STIM detected up to 5 strains in field samples from western Kenya and showed declining MOI over time (q < 0.02), from 4.32 strains per infected person in 1996 to 4.01, 3.56 and 3.35 in 2001, 2007 and 2012, and a reduction in the proportion of samples with 5 strains from 57% in 1996 to 18% in 2012. CONCLUSION: The combined approach of new multiplex PCRs and NGS, the unique bioinformatics pipeline and STIM could identify 24 barcode SNPs of P. falciparum correctly and consistently. The methodology could be applied to field samples to reliably measure temporal changes in MOI.

Assessment of submicroscopic infections and gametocyte carriage of Plasmodium falciparum during peak malaria transmission season in a community-based cross-sectional survey in western Kenya, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Although malaria control intervention has greatly decreased malaria morbidity and mortality in many African countries, further decline in parasite prevalence has stagnated in western Kenya. In order to assess if malaria transmission reservoir is associated with this stagnation, submicroscopic infection and gametocyte carriage was estimated. Risk factors and associations between malaria control interventions and gametocyte carriage were further investigated in this study. METHODS: A total of 996 dried blood spot samples were used from two strata, all smear-positives (516 samples) and randomly selected smear-negatives (480 samples), from a community cross-sectional survey conducted at peak transmission season in 2012 in Siaya County, western Kenya. Plasmodium falciparum parasite presence and density were determined by stained blood smear and by 18S mRNA transcripts using nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assay (NASBA), gametocyte presence and density were determined by blood smear and by Pfs25 mRNA-NASBA, and gametocyte diversity by Pfg377 mRNA RT-PCR and RT-qPCR. RESULTS: Of the randomly selected smear-negative samples, 69.6 % (334/480) were positive by 18S-NASBA while 18S-NASBA detected 99.6 % (514/516) smear positive samples. Overall, 80.2 % of the weighted population was parasite positive by 18S-NASBA vs 30.6 % by smear diagnosis and 44.0 % of the weighted population was gametocyte positive by Pfs25-NASBA vs 2.6 % by smear diagnosis. Children 5-15 years old were more likely to be parasitaemic and gametocytaemic by NASBA than individuals >15 years old or children <5 years old while gametocyte density decreased with age. Anaemia and self-reported fever within the past 24 h were associated with increased odds of gametocytaemia. Fever was also positively associated with parasite density, but not with gametocyte density. Anti-malarial use within the past 2 weeks decreased the odds of gametocytaemia, but not the odds of parasitaemia. In contrast, recent anti-malarial use was associated with lowered parasite density, but not the gametocyte density. Use of ITNs was associated with lower odds for parasitaemia in part of the study area with a longer history of ITN interventions. In the same part of study area, the odds of having multiple gametocyte alleles were also lower in individuals using ITNs than in those not using ITNs and parasite density was positively associated with gametocyte diversity. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of submicroscopic parasites and gametocytes in western Kenya might contribute to the stagnation in malaria prevalence, suggesting that additional interventions targeting the infectious reservoir are needed. As school aged children and persons with anaemia and fever were major sources for gametocyte reservoir, these groups should be targeted for intervention and prevention to reduce malaria transmission. Anti-malarial use was associated with lower parasite density and odds of gametocytaemia, but not the gametocyte density, indicating a limitation of anti-malarial impact on the transmission reservoir. ITN use had a protective role against parasitaemia and gametocyte diversity in western Kenya.

Differences in intermittent and continuous fecal shedding patterns between natural and experimental Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infections in cattle.

The objective of this paper is to study shedding patterns of cows infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). While multiple single farm studies of MAP dynamics were reported, there is not large scale meta-analysis of both natural and experimental infections. Large difference in shedding patterns between experimentally and naturally infected cows were observed. Experimental infections are thus probably driven by different pathological mechanisms. For further evaluations of shedding patterns only natural infections were used. Within such infections, the transition to high shedding was studied as a proxy to the development of a clinical disease. The majority of studied cows never developed high shedding levels. Those that do, typically never reduced their shedding level to low or no shedding. Cows that eventually became high shedders showed a pattern of continuous shedding. In contrast, cows with an intermittent shedding pattern had a low probability to ever become high shedders. In addition, cows that start shedding at a younger age (less than three years of age) have a lower hazard of becoming high shedders compared to cows starting to shed at an older age. These data suggest the presence of three categories of immune control. Cows that are intermittent shedders have the infection process under control (no progressive infection). Cows that start shedding persistently at a young age partially control the infection, but eventually will be high shedders (slow progressive infection), while cows that start shedding persistently at an older age cannot effectively control the infection and become high shedders rapidly.

Associations between Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis antibodies in bulk tank milk, season of sampling and protocols for managing infected cows.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to identify associations between the concentration of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) antibodies in bulk milk and potential risk factors in herd management and herd characteristics, explaining high MAP antibody titers in milk. An extensive questionnaire was administered to 292 organic and conventional dairy farms from New York, Wisconsin and Oregon. Bulk milk samples were taken from each farm for MAP enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A general linear model was constructed with MAP ELISA value as the outcome variable and the management factors and herd characteristics as independent variables, while at the same time controlling for the study design variables of state, herd size, and production system (organic or conventional). High bulk tank MAP ELISA value may be due to either a high prevalence of MAP in a herd with many cows contributing to the antibody titer or due to a few infected cows that produce large quantities of antibodies. RESULTS: Results of the regression models indicated that bulk milk ELISA value was associated with season of sampling and the presence or absence of protocols for managing MAP-positive cows. The concentration of MAP antibodies in bulk milk varied seasonally with a peak in the summer and low concentrations in the winter months. When compared to farms that had never observed clinical Johne's disease, keeping MAP-positive cows or only culling them after a period of delay was associated with an increase in optical density. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonal variation in MAP antibody titers, with a peak in the summer, may be due to a seasonal increase in MAP-bacterial load. Additionally, seasonal calving practices may contribute to seasonal fluctuations in MAP antibody titers in bulk tank milk. Keeping MAP-positive cows increases the antibody titer in bulk milk, likely due to direct antibody production in the infected cow and indirect triggering of antibody production in herdmates.

Invasion and transmission of Salmonella Kentucky in an adult dairy herd using approximate Bayesian computation.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of Salmonella Kentucky followed by a high level of sustained endemic prevalence was recently observed in a US adult dairy herd enrolled in a longitudinal study involving intensive fecal sampling. To understand the invasion ability and transmission dynamics of Salmonella Kentucky in dairy cattle, accurate estimation of the key epidemiological parameters from longitudinal field data is necessary. The approximate Bayesian computation technique was applied for estimating the transmission rate (ß), the recovery rate (γ) and shape (n) parameters of the gamma distribution for the infectious (shedding) period, and the basic reproduction ratio (R0), given a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) compartment model with a gamma distribution for the infectious period. RESULTS: The results report that the mean transmission rate (ß) is 0.417 month-1 (median: 0.417, 95% credible interval [0.406, 0.429]), the average infectious period (γ-1) is 7.95 months (median: 7.95, 95% credible interval [7.70, 8.22]), the mean shape parameter (n) of the gamma distribution for the infectious period is 242 (median: 182, 95% credible interval [16, 482]), and the mean basic reproduction ratio (R0) is 2.91 (median: 2.91, 95% credible interval [2.83, 3.00]). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that Salmonella Kentucky in this herd was of mild infectiousness and had a long infectious period, which together provide an explanation for the observed prevalence pattern after invasion. The transmission rate and the recovery rate parameters are inferred with better accuracy than the shape parameter, therefore these two parameters are more sensitive to the model and the observed data. The estimated shape parameter (n) has large variability with a minimal value greater than one, indicating that the infectious period of Salmonella Kentucky in dairy cattle does not follow the conventionally assumed exponential distribution.

Factors Associated with Vaginal Lactobacillus Predominance Among African American Women Early in Pregnancy.

Background: Vaginal Lactobacillus is considered protective of some adverse reproductive health outcomes, including preterm birth. However, factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of harboring Lactobacillus in the vaginal microbiome remain largely unknown. In this study, we sought to identify risk and protective factors associated with vaginal Lactobacillus predominance within a cohort of pregnant African American women. Materials and Methods: Vaginal microbiome samples were self-collected by African American women (N = 436) during their 8-14th week of pregnancy. Sociodemographic information and measures of health behaviors, including substance use, antibiotic exposure, sexual practices, frequency of vaginal intercourse, and the use of vaginal products, were collected through participant self-report. The V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene was targeted for amplification and sequencing using Illumina HiSeq, with bacterial taxonomy assigned using the PECAN classifier. Univariate and a series of multivariate logistic regression models identified factors predictive of diverse vaginal microbiota or Lactobacillus predominance. Results: Participants who used marijuana in the past 30 days (aOR 1.80, 95% CI 1.08-2.98) were more likely to have diverse non-Lactobacillus-predominant vaginal microbiota, as were women not living with their partners (aOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.20-3.01). Cohabitating or marijuana usage were not associated with type of Lactobacillus (non-iners Lactobacillus vs. Lactobacillus iners) predominance (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.52-2.38 and aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.21-1.47, respectively). Conclusions: Living with a partner is conducive to vaginal Lactobacillus predominance. As such, cohabitation may be in important covariate to consider in vaginal microbiome studies.

Molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a longitudinal study of three dairy herds.

The objective of this study was to evaluate whether cows that were low shedders of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis were passively shedding or truly infected with M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. We also investigated whether it is possible that these M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis-infected animals could have been infected as adults by contemporary high-shedding animals (supershedders). The M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates were obtained from a longitudinal study of three dairy herds in the northeastern United States. Isolates were selected from fecal samples and tissues at slaughter from all animals that were culture positive at the same time that supershedders were present in the herds. Shedding levels (CFU of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis/g of feces) for the animals at each culture-positive occasion were determined. Using a multilocus short-sequence-repeat technique, we found 15 different strains of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis from a total of 142 isolates analyzed. Results indicated herd-specific infection patterns; there was a clonal infection in herd C, with 89% of isolates from animals sharing the same strain, whereas herds A and B showed several different strains infecting the animals at the same time. Tissues from 80% of cows with at least one positive fecal culture (other than supershedders) were culture positive, indicating a true M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection. The results of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis strain typing and observed shedding levels showed that at least 50% of low shedders have the same strain as that of a contemporary supershedder. Results of this study suggest that in a dairy herd, more of the low-shedding cows are truly infected with M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis than are passively shedding M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. The sharing of strains between low shedders and the contemporary supershedders suggests that low shedders may have been infected by environmental exposure of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis.

Elucidating Transmission Patterns of Endemic Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Using Molecular Epidemiology.

Mycobacterial diseases are persistent and characterized by lengthy latent periods. Thus, epidemiological models require careful delineation of transmission routes. Understanding transmission routes will improve the quality and success of control programs. We aimed to study the infection dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causal agent of ruminant Johne's disease, and to distinguish within-host mutation from individual transmission events in a longitudinally MAP-defined dairy herd in upstate New York. To this end, semi-annual fecal samples were obtained from a single dairy herd over the course of seven years, in addition to tissue samples from a selection of culled animals. All samples were cultured for MAP, and multi-locus short-sequence repeat (MLSSR) typing was used to determine MAP SSR types. We concluded from these precise MAP infection data that, when the tissue burden remains low, the majority of MAP infections are not detectable by routine fecal culture but will be identified when tissue culture is performed after slaughter. Additionally, we determined that in this herd vertical infection played only a minor role in MAP transmission. By means of extensive and precise longitudinal data from a single dairy herd, we have come to new insights regarding MAP co-infections and within-host evolution.

Stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota across pregnancy among African American women: the effect of socioeconomic status and antibiotic exposure.

OBJECTIVE: A growing body of research has investigated the human microbiota and pregnancy outcomes, especially preterm birth. Most studies of the prenatal microbiota have focused on the vagina, with fewer investigating other body sites during pregnancy. Although pregnancy involves profound hormonal, immunological and metabolic changes, few studies have investigated either shifts in microbiota composition across pregnancy at different body sites or variation in composition at any site that may be explained by maternal characteristics. The purpose of this study was to investigate: (1) the stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota from early (8-14 weeks) through later (24-30 weeks) pregnancy among African American women according to measures of socioeconomic status, accounting for prenatal antibiotic use; (2) whether measures of socioeconomic status are associated with changes in microbiota composition over pregnancy; and (3) whether exposure to prenatal antibiotics mediate any observed associations between measures of socioeconomic status and stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota across pregnancy. METHODS: We used paired vaginal, oral, or gut samples available for 16S rRNA gene sequencing from two time points in pregnancy (8-14 and 24-30 weeks) to compare within-woman changes in measures of alpha diversity (Shannon and Chao1) and beta-diversity (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) among pregnant African American women (n = 110). Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the effect of level of education and prenatal health insurance as explanatory variables for changes in diversity, considering antibiotic exposure as a mediator, adjusting for age, obstetrical history, and weeks between sampling. RESULTS: For the oral and gut microbiota, there were no significant associations between measures of socioeconomic status or prenatal antibiotic use and change in Shannon or Chao1 diversity. For the vaginal microbiota, low level of education (high school or less) was associated with an increase in Shannon and Chao1 diversity over pregnancy, with minimal attenuation when controlling for prenatal antibiotic use. Conversely, for within-woman Bray-Curtis dissimilarity for early compared to later pregnancy, low level of education and prenatal antibiotics were associated with greater dissimilarity for the oral and gut sites, with minimal attenuation when controlling for prenatal antibiotics, and no difference in dissimilarity for the vaginal site. CONCLUSIONS: Measures of maternal socioeconomic status are variably associated with changes in diversity across pregnancy for the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota, with minimal attenuation by prenatal antibiotic exposure. Studies that evaluate stability of the microbiota across pregnancy in association with health outcomes themselves associated with socioeconomic status (such as preterm birth) should incorporate measures of socioeconomic status to avoid finding spurious relationships.

Survival of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in bovine monocyte-derived macrophages is not affected by host infection status but depends on the infecting bacterial genotype.

In this study we investigated the ability of different Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (M. paratuberculosis) strains to survive in bovine monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) of cows naturally infected with M. paratuberculosis and control cows. We tested the hypotheses that infection status of cows affects macrophage killing ability and that survival of M. paratuberculosis in macrophages is dependent on the strain. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were obtained from Johne's disease-positive (n=3) and age and stage of lactation matched Johne's disease-negative (n=3) multiparious cows. Following differentiation, MDMs were challenged in vitro with four M. paratuberculosis strains of different host specificity (cattle and sheep). Two hours and 2, 4, and 7 days after infection, ingestion, and intracellular survival of M. paratuberculosis strains were determined by fluorescence microscopy. There was no effect of the origin of MDMs (Johne's disease-positive or control animals) on phagocytosis, survival of bacteria, or macrophage survival. In contrast, important strain differences were observed. These findings suggest that some M. paratuberculosis strains interfere more successfully than others with the ability of macrophages to kill intracellular pathogens which may make it important to include strain typing when designing control programs.

Plasma Cytokine Levels in Chronic Asymptomatic HIV-1 Subtype C Infection as an Indicator of Disease Progression in Botswana: A Retrospective Case Control Study.

HIV infects cells of the immune system causing immune activation and proliferation of immune cells, leading to alteration of production and activity of a number of cytokines. These changes in cytokine levels can affect the immune function, and have the potential to directly impact the course of HIV disease. We characterized plasma cytokine concentration profiles in HIV-1 subtype C chronically infected, antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive participants to establish their influence on disease progression and viremia. Plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-1α, IL-7, IL-12p40, granulocyte macrophage-colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), and interferon (IFN)-γ were quantified in samples from 60 treatment-naive participants in the placebo arm of the completed Micronutrient-HIV disease progressions study, "Dikotlana" (2004-2009) in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were stratified into progressors (P) and nonprogressors (NP) based on their rates of CD4(+) T cell depletion during the study period. Nonprogressors were those who had <1% CD4(+) T cell depletion at 24 months postenrollment. Progressors were defined as those with CD4(+) T cell depletion of >15% at 24 months postenrollment. Cytokine levels were compared between P and NP using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine if cytokines predicted disease progression. Correlations of cytokines with CD4(+) T cell counts and viral loads were determined by the Spearman rank test. Median baseline CD4(+) T cell counts were 453 (Q1, Q3; 401, 592) and 479 (Q1, Q3; 401-592) for nonprogressors and progressors, respectively. Nonprogressors had a higher viral set point than progressors. IL-12p40 levels were significantly higher in the P than in NP at enrollment and 24 months (p < 0.05). Levels of IL-1α, IL-7, IFN-γ, and GM-CSF did not differ significantly between the two groups. Except for IL-12p40, which displayed an inverse correlation with CD4(+) T cell counts and a direct correlation with viral load, all other cytokines showed no correlations. IL-12p40 was found to be the most significant predictor of progression and its production was most likely driven by HIV replication products as evidenced by its direct correlation with viral load. In chronic HIV-1 subtype C infection, CD4(+) T cell counts and plasma cytokine levels may not necessarily evolve in parallel, suggesting the involvement of other factors in determining the rates of CD4(+) T cell depletion.

Back to the real world: connecting models with data.

Mathematical models for infectious disease are often used to improve our understanding of infection biology or to evaluate the potential efficacy of intervention programs. Here, we develop a mathematical model that aims to describe infection dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). The model was developed using current knowledge of infection biology and also includes some components of MAP infection dynamics that are currently still hypothetical. The objective was to show methods for parameter estimation of state transition models and to connect simulation models with detailed real life data. Thereby making model predictions and results of simulations more reflective and predictive of real world situations. Longitudinal field data from a large observational study are used to estimate parameter values. It is shown that precise data, including molecular diagnostics on the obtained MAP strains, results in more precise and realistic parameter estimates. It is argued that modeling of infection disease dynamics is of great value to understand the patho-biology, epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The quality of conclusions drawn from model studies depend on two key issues; first, the quality of biology that has gone in the process of developing the model structure; second the quality of the data that go into the estimation of the parameters and the quality and quantity of the data that go into model validation. The more real world data that are used in the model building process, the more likely that modeling studies will provide novel, innovative and valid results.

Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. DESIGN: Stochastic simulation model. SAMPLE: Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. PROCEDURES: A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin test-based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant [annual] testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection-based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. RESULTS: On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1,000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test-based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy.

Impact of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis vaccines in dairy herds: a mathematical modeling approach.

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential impacts of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) vaccines on the dynamics of MAP infection in US dairy herds using a mathematical modeling approach. Vaccine-based control programs have been implemented to reduce the prevalence of MAP infection in some dairy herds; however, MAP vaccines are imperfect. Vaccines can provide partial protection for susceptible calves, reduce the infectiousness of animals shedding MAP, lengthen the latent period of infected animals, slow the progression from low shedding to high shedding in infectious animals, and reduce clinical disease. To quantitatively study the impacts of imperfect MAP vaccines, we developed a deterministic multi-group vaccination model and performed global sensitivity analyses. Our results explain why MAP vaccination might have a beneficial, negligible, or detrimental effect in the reduction of prevalence and show that vaccines that are beneficial to individual animals may not be useful for a herd-level control plan. The study suggests that high efficacy vaccines that are aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the host are the most effective in controlling MAP transmission. This work indicates that MAP vaccination should be integrated into a comprehensive control program that includes test-and-cull intervention and improved calf rearing management.

Quantification of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) survival in monocyte-derived macrophages.

Real-time PCR assays were developed to quantitate Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in bovine monocyte-derived macrophages. We measured the absolute number of both host cells and bacteria in in vitro challenge assays. Results obtained from real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) DNA copy counts were compared to visual quantitation of fluorescent-stained MAP in macrophages. Conclusions from our original visual analysis were supported by the second (qPCR) methodology; however, the qPCR assay proved to be more consistent between samples and was easier to perform. There was a strain-to-strain difference in growth curves between fluorescent quantitation (FQ) and qPCR that we believe to be a consequence of bacterial growth characteristics in FQ. In summary, real-time PCR assays provided a more accurate and precise method for evaluating intracellular growth dynamics when comparing strains of MAP.

Prevalence and clinical associations of CXCR4-using HIV-1 among treatment-naive subtype C-infected women in Botswana.

HIV-1 coreceptor use was determined using a phenotypic assay in plasma samples from treatment-naive women infected with subtype C virus who had CD4 cell counts below 200 cells/mm3. Of 148 women, 14.9% were infected with dual/mixed virus; the remainder had R5 virus. A greater proportion of women in the lowest CD4 cell count stratum had dual/mixed virus (P = 0.026); change in coreceptor use after antiretroviral therapy exposure was uncommon. CXCR4-using HIV-1 was less common in subtype C-infected women than reported in subtype B cohorts but was most prevalent in women with the lowest CD4 cell counts.