Predicting Particulate Matter (PM 10) Levels in Morocco: A 5-Day Forecast Using the Analog Ensemble Method.

Accurate prediction of Particulate Matter (PM 10) levels, an indicator of natural pollutants such as those resulting from dust storms, is crucial for public health and environmental planning. This study aims to provide accurate forecasts of PM 10 over Morocco for five days. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) and the Bias Correction (AnEnBc) techniques were employed to post-process PM 10 forecasts produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global atmospheric composition forecasts, using CAMS reanalysis data as a reference. The results show substantial prediction improvements: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreased from 63.83 µg/m 3 in the original forecasts to 44.73 µg/m 3 with AnEn and AnEnBc, while the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reduced from 36.70 µg/m 3 to 24.30 µg/m 3. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (R 2) increased more than twofold from 29.11% to 65.18%, and the Pearson correlation coefficient increased from 0.61 to 0.82. This is the first use of this approach for Morocco and the Middle East and North Africa and has the potential for translation into early and more accurate warnings of PM 10 pollution events. The application of such approaches in environmental policies and public health decision making can minimize air pollution health impacts.

Aedes (Ochlerotatus) epactius along an elevation and climate gradient in Veracruz and Puebla States, México.

We report on the collection ofimmatures of Aedes (Ochlerotatus) epactius Dyar & Knab from artificial containers during July through September 2011 in 12 communities located along an elevation and climate gradient extending from sea level in Veracruz State to high elevations (>2,000 m) in Veracruz and Puebla States, México. Ae. epactius was collected from 11 of the 12 study communities; the lone exception was the highest elevation community along the transect (>2,400 m). This mosquito species was thus encountered at elevations ranging from near sea level in Veracruz City on the Gulf of México to above 2,100 m in Puebla City in the central highlands. Collection sites included the city of C6rdoba, located at approximately 850 m, from which some of the first described specimens of Ae. epactius were collected in 1908. Estimates for percentage of premises in each community with Ae. epactius pupae present, and abundance of Ae. epactius pupae on the study premises, suggest that along the transect in central México, the mosquito is present but rare at sea level, most abundant at mid-range elevations from 1,250-1,750 m and then decreases in abundance above 1,800 m. Statistically significant parabolic relationships were found between percentage of premises with Ae. epactius pupae present and average minimum daily temperature, cumulative growing degree-days, and rainfall. We recorded Ae. epactius immatures from a wide range of container types including cement water tanks, barrels/ drums, tires, large earthen jars, small discarded containers, buckets, cement water troughs, flower pots, cement water cisterns, and larger discarded containers. There were 45 documented instances of co-occurrence of Ae. epactius and Aedes aegypti (L.) immatures in individual containers.

The dengue virus mosquito vector Aedes aegypti at high elevation in Mexico.

México has cities (e.g., México City and Puebla City) located at elevations > 2,000 m and above the elevation ceiling below which local climates allow the dengue virus mosquito vector Aedes aegypti to proliferate. Climate warming could raise this ceiling and place high-elevation cities at risk for dengue virus transmission. To assess the elevation ceiling for Ae. aegypti and determine the potential for using weather/climate parameters to predict mosquito abundance, we surveyed 12 communities along an elevation/climate gradient from Veracruz City (sea level) to Puebla City (∼2,100 m). Ae. aegypti was commonly encountered up to 1,700 m and present but rare from 1,700 to 2,130 m. This finding extends the known elevation range in México by > 300 m. Mosquito abundance was correlated with weather parameters, including temperature indices. Potential larval development sites were abundant in Puebla City and other high-elevation communities, suggesting that Ae. aegypti could proliferate should the climate become warmer.