Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD). METHODS: Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.

Maternal Mortality in a Rural District of Pakistan and Contributing Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Pakistan is among the ten countries that account for 60% of global maternal mortality. Lack of accurate data on maternal mortality and a complex interrelation of access and quality of healthcare services, healthcare delivery system, and socio-economic and demographic factors contribute significantly to inadequate progress in reducing maternal mortality. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted in a rural district of Pakistan using data obtained from an enhanced surveillance system. A total of 7572 pregnancies and their outcomes were recorded by 273 Lady Health Workers and 73 Community Health Workers over 2016-2017. Logistic regression was used to calculate the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (OR) for maternal mortality for each risk factor. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) was derived from the ORs and risk factor prevalence. RESULTS: The study recorded 18 maternal deaths. The maternal mortality rate was estimated at 238/100,000 pregnancies (95% CI 141-376), and the maternal mortality ratio was 247/100,000 live births (95% CI 147-391). Half of the maternal deaths (9) were from obstetric hemorrhage, and 28% (5) from puerperal sepsis. Postpartum hemorrhage was associated with a 17-fold higher risk of maternal mortality (PAF = 40%) and puerperal sepsis with a 12-fold higher mortality risk (PAF = 29%) compared to women without these conditions. Women delivered by unskilled birth attendants had a three-fold (PAF = 21%), and women having prolonged labour had a fourfold risk of maternal mortality compared to those with these conditions. Women with leg swelling (47%) and pre-eclampsia (26%) are at seven times the risk of maternal mortality compared to those without these conditions. Mortality in women delivered by unskilled birth attendants was three times higher than with skilled attendants. CONCLUSION: The study, among a few large-scale prospective cohort studies conducted at the community level in a rural district of Pakistan, provides a better understanding of the risk factors determining maternal mortality in Pakistan. Poverty emerged as a significant risk factor for maternal mortality in the study area and contributes to the underutilization of health facilities and skilled birth attendants. Incorporating poverty reduction strategies across all sectors, including health, is urgently required to address higher maternal mortality in Pakistan. A paradigm shift is required in Maternal and Child health related programs and interventions to include poverty estimation and measuring mortality through linking mortality surveillance with the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics system. Accelerated efforts to expand the coverage and completeness of mortality data with risk factors to address inequalities in access and utilization of health services.

Trends in mortality and life expectancy in Fiji over 20 years.

BACKGROUND: Fiji, a Pacific Island nation of 884,887 (2017 census), has experienced a prolonged epidemiological transition. This study examines trends in mortality and life expectancy (LE) in Fiji by sex and ethnicity over 1996-2017, with comparisons to published estimates. METHODS: Trends in infant mortality rates (IMR), under-5 mortality (U5M), adult mortality (probability of dying), LE (at birth) and directly age-standardised death rates (DASRs) by sex and ethnicity, are calculated (with 95% confidence limits) using unit death records from the Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services. The LE gap between populations, or within populations over time, is examined using decomposition by age. Period trends are assessed for statistical significance using linear regression. RESULTS: Over 1996-98 to 2014-17: IMR and U5M for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent declined; U5M decline for i-Taukei (24.6 to 20.1/1000 live births) was significant (p = 0.016). Mortality (15-59 years) for i-Taukei males was unchanged at 27% but declined for Indians 33 to 30% (p = 0.101). Mortality for i-Taukei females increased 22 to 24% (p = 0.011) but declined for Indians 20 to 18% (p = 0.240). DASRs 1996-2017 were lower for i-Taukei (9.3 to 8.2/1000 population) than Indian males (10.6 to 9.8/1000). DASRs declined for i-Taukei (both sexes, p < 0.05), and for Indians (both sexes, p > 0.05). Over 22 years, LE at birth increased by 1 year or less (p = 0.030 in male i-Taukei). In 2014-17, LE (years) for males was: i-Taukei 64.9, Indians 63.5; and females: i-Taukei 67.0 and Indians 68.2. Mortality changes in most 5-year age groups increased or decreased the LE gap less than 10 weeks over 22 years. Compared to international agency reports, 2014-17 empirical LE estimates (males 64.7, females 67.8) were lower, as was IMR. CONCLUSIONS: Based on empirical data, LE in Fiji has minimally improved over 1996-2017, and is lower than some international agencies report. Adult mortality was higher in Indian than i-Taukei men, and higher in i-Taukei than Indian women. Exclusion of stillbirths resulted in IMRs lower than previously reported. Differing mortality trends in subgroups highlight the need to collect census and health data by ethnicity and sex, to monitor health outcomes and inform resource allocation.

Mortality in Tonga over three triennia, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Tonga is a South Pacific Island country with a population of 100,651 (2016 Census). This study examines Tongan infant mortality rates (IMR), under-five mortality rates (U5MR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) at birth from 2010 to 2018 using a recent collation of empirical mortality data over the past decade for comparison with other previously published mortality estimates. METHODS: Routinely collected mortality data for 2010-2018 from the Ministry of Health, national (Vaiola) hospital, community nursing reports, and the Civil Registry, were consolidated by deterministic and probabilistic linkage of individual death records. Completeness of empirical mortality reporting was assessed by capture-recapture analysis. The reconciled data were aggregated into triennia to reduce stochastic variation, and used to estimate IMR and U5MR (per 1000 live births), adult mortality (15-59, 15-34, 35-59, and 15-64 years), and LE at birth, employing the hypothetical cohort method (with statistical testing). Mortality trends and differences were assessed by Poisson regression. Mortality findings were compared with published national and international agency estimates. RESULTS: Over the three triennia in 2010-2018, levels varied minimally for IMR (12-14) and U5MR (15-19) per 1000 births (both ns, p > 0.05), and also for male LE at birth of 64-65 years, and female LE at birth 69-70 years. Cumulated risks of adult mortality were significantly higher in men than women; period mortality increases in 15-59-year women from 18 to 21% were significant (p < 0.05). Estimated completeness of the reconciled data was > 95%. International agencies reported generally comparable estimates of IMR and U5MR, with varying uncertainty intervals; but they reported significantly lower adult mortality and higher LE than the empirical estimates from this study. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in Tonga over 2010-2018 has remained relatively low and static, with low IMR and U5MR, indicating the substantial impact from premature adult mortality. This analysis of empirical data (> 95% complete) indicates lower LE and higher premature adult mortality than previously reported by international agencies using indirect and modelled methods. Continued integration of mortality recording and data systems in Tonga is important for improving the completeness and accuracy of mortality estimation for local health monitoring and planning.

Changes in proportional mortality from diabetes and circulatory disease in Mauritius and Fiji: possible effects of coding and certification.

BACKGROUND: Many developing countries are experiencing the epidemiological transition, with the majority of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and others. In some countries, large proportional mortality attributed to diabetes is evident in official mortality statistics, with Mauritius and Fiji rated as the highest in the world. METHODS: This study investigates trends in recorded diabetes and cardiovascular disease mortality in Mauritius and Fiji under coding from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) versions 9 and 10, using mortality data reported from these countries to the World Health Organization (WHO). RESULTS: In Mauritius over 1981-2004, T2DM proportional mortality varied between 4% and 7% in males (M) and 5% and 9% in females (F). In 2005 there was a sudden increase to M 20% and F 25%, which continued to M 25% and F 30% by 2012. Over 1981-2004 the proportion of circulatory disease mortality rose from 44% to 49% in males, and from 46% to 57% in females. In 2005, circulatory disease mortality proportions fell precipitously to 34% in males and 37% in females, and declined to 31% and 34% by 2013. ICD-10 coding was introduced in 2005. In Fiji, sharp rises in proportional T2DM mortality from 3% in both sexes in 2001 to M 15% and F 20% in 2002 were followed by more gradual trend increases to M 20% and F 26% by 2012-13. Circulatory disease proportions fell steeply from M 57% and F 53% in 2001 to M 44% and M 38% by 2004, with subsequent less steep declines to M 39% and F 30% by 2012. ICD-10 coding was introduced in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Large, abrupt changes in diabetes and circulatory disease proportional mortality in Fiji and Mauritius coincided with the local introduction of ICD-10 coding in different years. There is also evidence for diabetes-related misclassification of underlying cause of death in Australia and the USA. These artefacts can undermine accurate monitoring of cause of death for evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control, especially of circulatory disease mortality which is demonstrably reversible in populations.

The burden of cancer on primary and secondary health care services before and after cancer diagnosis in New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Primary and secondary healthcare service usage is assessed in the year before and following a cancer diagnosis, in cancer cases versus matched non-cancer controls in New South Wales (NSW), Australia over 2006-2012, for all invasive cancers collectively and for selected common sites: breast, prostate, colorectal and lung, and melanoma. METHODS: The 45 and Up cohort (n ≈267,000) was linked to NSW Cancer Register (NSWCR), Emergency Department Data Collection (EDDC) and Medical Benefits Schedule (MBS) data using probabilistic record linkage. First-ever malignant cancers diagnosed after enrolment in the 45 and Up study comprised the study cases. Where possible, five controls were randomly selected per case from the 45 and Up cohort, matched by sex and year of birth. Controls comprised those with no cancer recorded on the NSWCR. For each month in the year preceding and following the cancer diagnosis, general practitioner, specialist and specified hospital ED service use was compared between cases and controls using proportions, means, and odds ratios derived from conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Compared to controls, cases of all cancers combined had a significantly higher likelihood of GP and specialist consultation in the year leading up to diagnosis. This was most pronounced in the 3-4 months leading up diagnosis for all cancers, similarly for lung cancer (GPs and specialists) and melanoma (GPs), and colorectal cancer (specialists). Likelihood of a GP consultation remained significantly higher in cases than controls in the 12 months following diagnosis. During most of the year preceding cancer diagnosis, the likelihood of specified ED presentations was also significantly higher in cases than controls for all cancers, and most pronounced in the 2-3 months before diagnosis. Excepting melanoma, the likelihood of specified ED presentations remained significantly elevated for most of the year following diagnosis for all cancers combined and for the selected cancers. CONCLUSIONS: People with cancer experience a higher use of primary and secondary healthcare services in the year preceding and following diagnosis, with GPs continuing to play a significant role post diagnosis. The higher likelihood of pre-diagnosis GP consultations among cancer cases requires further investigation, including whether signals might be derived to alert GPs to possibilities for earlier cancer detection.

Confluence of suicide and drug overdose epidemics in young Australian males: common causality?

BACKGROUND: Young adult (aged 20-34) males experience higher mortality than females, and in age groups immediately younger and older, and with considerable variation in death rates over time. Trends in mortality and the cause structure of deaths among young adult Australian males over 1979-2011 are investigated, with a focus on suicide and drug overdose. METHODS: Mortality data by age for the period 1979 to 2011 and Australian population figures were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Cause of death was investigated using relevant International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, and mortality by cause was examined graphically over time according to various ICD aggregations. Mortality trends were contextualised in relation to labour market changes occurring in Australia from the 1980s to early 2000s. RESULTS: Although motor vehicle accident (MVA) mortality declined by half between 1980 and 1998 in males, this did not translate into a reduction in total young male mortality because of simultaneous increases in suicide, and drug-related deaths classified as either poisoning (external cause) or drug dependence (mental disorders). When both suicide and drug-related deaths declined concurrently after 1998, total 20-34 year male mortality declined by almost half (46%) over 1998-2011. Declines in external cause mortality accounted for 63% of the total mortality decline in 20-34 year males over 1998-2011. The close temporal coincidence (statistically significant) of increases and declines in suicide and drug-related deaths over a decade suggests related causality. CONCLUSIONS: The coincidence of young male suicide and drug overdose mortality epidemics over the study period (excess deaths: 5000) suggest related causality such as exposure to common factors, including the labour market liberalisation and de-regulation of the 1990s, and deserves further investigation.

Continued increases in blood pressure over two decades in Samoa (1991-2013); around one-third of the increase explained by rising obesity levels.

BACKGROUND: To analyse trends over the period 1991-2013 in systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and the prevalence of hypertension in adults aged 25-64 years in Samoa; and to assess the contribution of rising obesity levels to period trends. METHODS: Unit record data from seven population-based surveys (n = 10,881) conducted between 1991 and 2013 were included for analysis. Surveys were adjusted to the nearest previous census to improve national representativeness. Hypertension was defined as SBP ≥140 mmHg and/or DBP ≥90 mmHg and/or on medication for hypertension. Obesity was measured by body mass index (BMI). Poisson, linear and meta-regression were used to assess period trends. RESULTS: Over 1991-2013 mean SBP and DBP (mmHg), and the prevalence of hypertension (%) increased in both sexes. Increases in hypertension were: from 18.3 to 33.9% (p < 0.001) in men (mean BP from 122/74 to 132/78); and from 14.3 to 26.4% (p < 0.001) in women (mean BP from 118/73 to 126/78). The estimate of the age-adjusted mean SBP and DBP over 1991-2013, and the relative risk for hypertension in 2013 compared to 1991, were attenuated after adjusting for BMI: by 22% (men) and 32% (women) for mean SBP; 37% (men) and 32% (women) for mean DBP; and 19% in both sexes for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Significant increases have occurred in SBP/DBP and hypertension prevalence in both sexes in Samoa during 1991-2013, which would contribute significantly to premature mortality from cardiovascular disease. Obesity accounts for around one-third of the rising trend in blood pressure in the Samoan population. Strengthening of population control of hypertension through reduction in obesity and salt intake, and case detection and treatment through primary care, is required to reduce premature mortality from cardiovascular disease in Samoa.

Mammography service screening and breast cancer mortality in New Zealand: a National Cohort Study 1999-2011.

BACKGROUND: This breast cancer mortality evaluation of service screening mammography in New Zealand, the first since commencement of screening in 1999, applies to the 1999-2011 diagnostic period. Individual-level linked information on mammography screening, breast cancer diagnosis and breast cancer mortality is used to analyse differences in breast cancer mortality according to participation in organised screening mammography, as provided by BreastScreen Aotearoa (BSA). METHODS: Women were followed from the time they became eligible for screening, from age 50 years (1999-2004) and 45 years (⩾2004). Breast cancer mortality from cancers diagnosed during the screening period from 1999 to 2011 (n=4384) is examined in relation to individual screening participation or non-participation during preceding person-years of follow-up from the time of screening eligibility. To account for changes from never- to ever-screened status, breast cancer mortality is calculated for each year in relation to prior accumulated time of participation and non-participation in screening. Breast cancer mortality is also examined in regularly screened women (screened ⩾3 times and mean screening interval ⩽30 months), and irregularly screened women compared with never-screened women. Statistical analyses are by negative binomial and Poisson regression with adjustment for age and ethnic group (Maori, Pacific women) in a repeated-measures analysis. Relative risks for breast cancer mortality compared with never-screened women, are adjusted also for screening selection bias, to indicate the extent of breast cancer mortality reduction in a population offered and not offered mammography screening. Prognostic indicators at diagnosis of breast cancer are also compared between different screening participation groups, including by grade of tumour, extent of disease (spread), multiple tumour status and maximum tumour size using χ2 statistics, t-tests and two-sample median tests. RESULTS: For 1999-2011, after adjusting for age and ethnicity, breast cancer mortality in ever-screened women is estimated to be 62% (95% CI: 51-70) lower than in never-screened women. After further adjustment for screening selection bias, the mortality reduction in NZ is estimated to be 29% (95% CI: 20-38) at an average screening coverage of 64% for 2001-2011, and 34% (95% CI: 25-43) for recent screening coverage (2012-13, 71%). For irregularly screened women, the mortality reduction is estimated to be 31% (95% CI: 21-40), and 39% (95% CI: 22-52) in regularly screened women compared with never-screened women, after adjusting for age, ethnicity and screening selection bias (using recent 2012-2013 screening coverage of 71%). Ever-screened women diagnosed with breast cancer have more favourable prognostic indicators than never-screened women, with a higher proportion of localised cancer (63 compared with 46%), a higher proportion with a well-differentiated tumour (30 compared with 18%), lower risk of multiple tumours (RR=0.48) and smaller median tumour size (15 mm compared with 20 mm)-all differences are statistically significant (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first total population cohort study of an established nation-wide screening mammography programme using individual-level information on screening participation and mortality outcomes from breast cancer. The findings are in accord with other mammography screening service evaluations and with randomised trials of mammography screening.

Trends in stage-specific breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia: insights into the effects of 25 years of screening mammography.

PURPOSE: Screening mammography aims to improve breast cancer (BC) prognosis by increasing the incidence of early-stage tumours in order to decrease the incidence of late-stage cancer, but no reports have investigated these potential effects in an Australian population. Therefore we aimed to identify temporal trends in stage-specific BC in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 1972 and 2012. METHODS: An observational study of women who received a diagnosis of BC from 1972-2012 as recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, a population-based registry with almost complete coverage and high rates of histological verification. We analysed trends in stage-specific incidence before screening and compared them to periods after screening began. Our primary group of interest was women in the target age range of 50-69 years, though trends in women outside the target age were also assessed. RESULTS: Screening was not associated with lower incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis. Incidence for all stages remained higher than prescreening levels. In women aged 50-69 years, the incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS), localised and regional BC has more than doubled compared to the prescreening era, with incidence rate ratios ranging from 2.0 for regional (95% CI 1.95-2.13) to 121.8 for CIS (95% CI 82.58-179.72). Before the introduction of screening, there was a downward trend in distant metastatic BC incidence, and after the introduction of screening there was an increase (IRR 1.8; 95% CI 1.62-2.00). In women too young to screen the incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis also increased, whereas localised disease was stable. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of all stages of BC has increased over the past 40 years, with the greatest rise seen during the established screening period for women aged 50-69 years. Our findings suggest that some of the expected benefits of screening may not have been realised and are consistent with overdiagnosis.

Mortality trends in Australian Aboriginal peoples and New Zealand Maori.

BACKGROUND: The health status of Indigenous populations of Australia and New Zealand (NZ) Maori manifests as life expectancies substantially lower than the total population. Accurate assessment of time trends in mortality and life expectancy allows evaluation of progress in reduction of health inequalities compared to the national or non-Indigenous population. METHODS: Age-specific mortality and life expectancy (at birth) (LE) for Indigenous populations (Australia from 1990 and NZ from 1950); and all Australia and non-Maori NZ (from 1890), males (M) and females (F), were obtained from published sources and national statistical agency reports. Period trends were assessed for credible estimates of Indigenous LE, and the LE gap compared to the total population for Australia, and non-Maori for NZ. Period trends in premature adult mortality, as cumulative probability of dying over 15-59 years, were assessed similarly. The relative contribution of differences in age-specific mortality to the LE gap between Indigenous and the all-Australia population, and the non-Maori NZ, was estimated for each country by sex for the most recent period: 2010-2012 for Australia, 2012-2014 for NZ. RESULTS: LE increased for all populations, although LE gaps between Indigenous and all Australia showed little change over time. LE gaps between NZ Maori and non-Maori increased significantly from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and since then have fallen again. Recent LE gaps in Australia (M 12.5; F 12.0 years in 2010-2012) were larger than in NZ (M 7.3; F 6.8 years in 2012-2014). Premature adult mortality (15-59 years) improved for all populations, but mortality ratios show little change since 2000, with Indigenous at 3½-4 times that of all Australians, and Maori 2-3 times that of non-Maori. Using decomposition analysis, the age interval contributing most strongly to differences in LE between Indigenous and all Australia was 35-59 years, but between Maori and non-Maori it was 60-74 years. CONCLUSION: In Australia and NZ, Indigenous LE and adult mortality are improving in absolute terms, but not relative to the entire or non-Indigenous populations, causing gaps in life expectancy to persist.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. METHODS: Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. RESULTS: Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. CONCLUSIONS: Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. IMPLICATIONS: This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline.

Tobacco smoking trends in Samoa over four decades: can continued globalization rectify that which it has wrought?

BACKGROUND: The island country of Samoa (population 188,000 in 2011) forms part of Polynesia in the South Pacific. Over the past several decades Samoa has experienced exceptional modernization and globalization of many sectors of society, with noncommunicable diseases (NCD) now the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. The evolution of risk factor prevalence underpinning the increase in NCDs, however, has not been well described, including tobacco smoking which is related to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: The present study examines tobacco smoking in relation to different forms and effects of globalization in Samoa using 7 population-based surveys (n = 9223) over 1978-2013. RESULTS: The prevalence of daily tobacco smoking steadily decreased over 1978-2013 from 76% to 36% in men, and from 27% to 15% in women (p < 0.0001 both sexes). During 1991-2013, current tobacco smoking also steadily decreased from 64% to 40% in men (p < 0.0001), and from 21% to 17% in women (p < 0.05). Declines were similar in younger (25-44 years) and older (45-64 years) men and women. Colonial globalization facilitated the introduction and prolific spread of tobacco trade and consumption in the Pacific Islands from the sixteenth century, with many populations inexorably pulled into trade relations and links to the global economy. It has also been a different globalization which may have led to the decline in smoking prevalence in Samoa in recent decades, through global dissemination since the 1950s of information on the harmful effects of tobacco smoking derived from research studies in the USA and Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 35 years tobacco smoking has steadily declined among Samoan adults; the only NCD risk factor to demonstrate marked declines during this period. By 2013 tobacco smoking in women had decreased to levels similar to Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), however in men smoking prevalence remained more than three times higher than ANZ. The impact on smoking prevalence of the variety of tobacco control interventions that have been implemented so far in Samoa need to be evaluated in order to determine the most effective initiatives that should be prioritized and strengthened.

Cancer survival disparities worsening by socio-economic disadvantage over the last 3 decades in new South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Public concerns are commonly expressed about widening health gaps. This cohort study examines variations and trends in cancer survival by socio-economic disadvantage, geographical remoteness and country of birth in an Australian population over a 30-year period. METHODS: Data for cases diagnosed in New South Wales (NSW) in 1980-2008 (n = 651,245) were extracted from the population-based NSW Cancer Registry. Competing risk regression models, using the Fine & Gray method, were used for comparative analyses to estimate sub-hazard ratios (SHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) among people diagnosed with cancer. RESULTS: Increased risk of cancer death was associated with living in the most socio-economically disadvantaged areas compared with the least disadvantaged areas (SHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13-1.17), and in outer regional/remote areas compared with major cities (SHR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.06). People born outside Australia had a similar or lower risk of cancer death than Australian-born (SHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.01 and SHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92 for people born in other English and non-English speaking countries, respectively). An increasing comparative risk of cancer death was observed over time when comparing the most with the least socio-economically disadvantaged areas (SHR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10 for 1980-1989; SHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.17 for 1990-1999; and SHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.21-1.27 for 2000-2008; p < 0.001 for interaction between disadvantage quintile and year of diagnosis). CONCLUSIONS: There is a widening gap in comparative risk of cancer death by level of socio-economic disadvantage that warrants a policy response and further examination of reasons behind these disparities.

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence is traditionally derived from cohort studies that are not always feasible, representative, or available. The present study estimates T2DM incidence in Fijian adults from T2DM prevalence estimates assembled from surveys of 25-64 year old adults conducted over 30 years (n = 14,288). METHODS: T2DM prevalence by five-year age group from five population-based risk factor surveys conducted over 1980-2011 were variously adjusted for urban-rural residency, ethnicity, and sex to previous censuses (1976, 1986, 1996, 2009) to improve representativeness. Prevalence estimates were then used to calculate T2DM incidence based on birth cohorts from the age-period (Lexis) matrix following the Styblo technique, first used to estimate annual risk of tuberculosis infection (incidence) from sequential Mantoux population surveys. Poisson regression of year, age, sex, and ethnicity strata (n = 160) was used to develop projections of T2DM prevalence and incidence to 2020 based on various scenarios of population weight measured by body mass index (BMI) change. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence and annual incidence increased in Fiji over 1980-2011. Prevalence was higher in Indians and men than i-Taukei and women. Incidence was higher in Indians and women. From regression analyses, absolute reductions of 2.6 to 5.1% in T2DM prevalence (13-26% lower), and 0.5-0.9 per 1000 person-years in incidence (8-14% lower), could be expected in 2020 in adults if mean population weight could be reduced by 1-4 kg, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first application of the Styblo technique to calculate T2DM incidence from population-based prevalence surveys over time. Reductions in population BMI are predicted to reduce T2DM incidence and prevalence in Fiji among adults aged 25-64 years.

Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

BACKGROUND: The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. METHODS: A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. RESULTS: NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the survey highlight the need for individual and community interventions to address the high levels of NCD/RFs. Evaluation of interventions is needed in order to inform NCD control policies in Fiji and other Pacific Island nations.

Survival from breast, colon, lung, ovarian and rectal cancer by geographical remoteness in New South Wales, Australia, 2000-2008.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare survival from breast, colon, lung, ovarian and rectal cancer by geographical remoteness in New South Wales (NSW). DESIGN: Retrospective population-wide registry study. SETTING: NSW, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 107 060 NSW residents, who were diagnosed with any of the five cancers between 01 January 2000 and 31 December 2008. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Kaplan-Meier survival curves and proportional hazards regression were used to compare survival by geographical remoteness of residence at diagnosis, controlling for gender, age and extent of disease at diagnosis. Remoteness was classified using standard definitions: major city, inner regional (InnReg), outer regional (OutReg) and remote (including very remote). RESULTS: Significant differences in survival (likelihood of death) were identified in all five cancers: breast (adjusted hazard ratio(HR) = 1.22 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.001-1.48) in regionalised and HR = 1.30 (1.02-1.64) in metastatic disease for OutReg areas); colon (HR = 1.14 (1.01-1.29) for OutReg areas in metastatic disease); lung (HR range = 1.08-1.35 (1.01-1.48) for most non-metropolitan areas in all stages of disease excepting regionalised); ovarian (HR = 1.32 (1.06-1.65) for OutReg areas in metastatic disease, HR = 1.40 (1.04-1.90) for InnReg areas and HR = 1.68 (1.02-2.77) for OutReg areas in unknown stage of disease) and rectal (HR = 1.37 (1.05-1.78) for OutReg areas in localised and HR = 1.14 (1.002-1.30) for InnReg areas in regionalised disease). Where significant differences were found, major cities tended to show the best survival, whereas OutReg areas tended to show the worst. Although no definitive interpretation could be made regarding remote areas due to small patient numbers, their survival appeared relatively favourable. CONCLUSIONS: Reasons that contribute to the differences observed and the disparate results between cancer types need to be further explored in order to facilitate targeted solutions in reducing survival inequality between NSW regions.

What factors are predictive of surgical resection and survival from localised non-small cell lung cancer?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate opportunities to reduce lung cancer mortality after diagnosis of localised non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in New South Wales through surgical resection. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND SETTING: In this cohort study, resection rates and lung cancer mortality risk were explored using multivariate logistic regression and competing risk regression, respectively. Data for 3040 patients were extracted from the NSW Central Cancer Registry for the diagnostic period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2007. Subset analyses for patients at low surgical risk indicated resection rates and outcomes under ideal circumstances. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Resection rates and lung cancer mortality. RESULTS: The resection rate in NSW was estimated to be between 38% and 43%, peaking at 59% by local health district (LHD) of residence. Not having a resection was associated with older age, lower socioeconomic status, lack of private health insurance, and residence by LHD. Adjusted 5-year cumulated probabilities of death were 76% in absence of resection, 30% for wedge resection, 18% for segmental resection, 22% for lobectomy and 45% for pneumonectomy. Of 255 "low surgical risk" patients, 71% had a resection. Those not receiving a resection had a higher probability of death (adjusted subhazard ratio, 14.1; 95% CI, 7.2-27.5). If the low overall resection rate of 38%-43% in NSW were increased to 59% (the highest LHD resection rate), the proportion of all patients with localised NSCLC dying of NSCLC in the 5 years from diagnosis would decrease by about 10%, based on differences in probabilities of death by resection estimated in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Potential exists to reduce deaths from NSCLC in NSW through increased resection.

Suicide in young adults: psychiatric and socio-economic factors from a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Suicide in young adults remains an important public health issue in Australia. The attributable risks associated with broader socioeconomic factors, compared to more proximal psychiatric disorders, have not been considered previously in individual-level studies of young adults. This study compared the relative contributions of psychiatric disorder and socio-economic disadvantage associated with suicide in terms of relative and attributable risk in young adults. METHOD: A population-based case-control study of young adults (18-34 years) compared cases of suicide (n = 84) with randomly selected controls (n = 250) from population catchments in New South Wales (Australia), with exposure information collected from key informant interviews (for both cases and controls). The relative and attributable risk of suicide associated with ICD-10 defined substance use, affective, and anxiety disorder was compared with educational achievement and household income, adjusting for key confounders. Prevalence of exposures from the control group was used to estimate population attributable fractions (PAF). RESULTS: Strong associations were evident between mental disorders and suicide for both males and females (ORs 3.1 to 18.7). The strongest association was for anxiety disorders (both males and females), followed by affective disorders and substance use disorders. Associations for socio-economic status were smaller in magnitude than for mental disorders for both males and females (ORs 1.1 to 4.8 for lower compared to high SES groups). The combined PAF% for all mental disorders (48% for males and 52% for females) was similar in magnitude to socio-economic status (46% for males and 58% for females). CONCLUSION: Socio-economic status had a similar magnitude of population attributable risk for suicide as mental disorders. Public health interventions to reduce suicide should incorporate socio-economic disadvantage in addition to mental illness as a potential target for intervention.

A review of life expectancy and infant mortality estimations for Australian Aboriginal people.

BACKGROUND: Significant variation exists in published Aboriginal mortality and life expectancy (LE) estimates due to differing and evolving methodologies required to correct for inadequate recording of Aboriginality in death data, under-counting of Aboriginal people in population censuses, and unexplained growth in the Aboriginal population attributed to changes in the propensity of individuals to identify as Aboriginal at population censuses. The objective of this paper is to analyse variation in reported Australian Aboriginal mortality in terms of LE and infant mortality rates (IMR), compared with all Australians. METHODS: Published data for Aboriginal LE and IMR were obtained and analysed for data quality and method of estimation. Trends in reported LE and IMR estimates were assessed and compared with those in the entire Australian population. RESULTS: LE estimates derived from different methodologies vary by as much as 7.2 years for the same comparison period. Indirect methods for estimating Aboriginal LE have produced LE estimates sensitive to small changes in underlying assumptions, some of which are subject to circular reasoning. Most indirect methods appear to under-estimate Aboriginal LE. Estimated LE gaps between Aboriginal people and the overall Australian population have varied between 11 and 20 years. Latest mortality estimates, based on linking census and death data, are likely to over-estimate Aboriginal LE. Temporal LE changes by each methodology indicate that Aboriginal LE has improved at rates similar to the Australian population overall. Consequently the gap in LE between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population appears to be unchanged since the early 1980s, and at the end of the first decade of the 21st century remains at least 11-12 years. In contrast, focussing on the 1990-2010 period Aboriginal IMR declined steeply over 2001-08, from more than 12 to around 8 deaths per 1,000 live births, the same level as Australia overall in 1993-95. The IMR gap between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population, while still unacceptable, has declined considerably, from over 8 before 2000 to around 4 per 1,000 live births by 2008. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of estimation method used, mortality and LE gaps between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people are substantial, but remain difficult to estimate accurately.