RESUMO
Irreversible shifts in ecosystems caused by large herbivores are becoming widespread around the world. We analyzed data derived from the 2009-2010 Sika Deer Impact Survey, which assessed the geographical distribution of deer impacts on vegetation through a questionnaire, on a scale of 5-km grid-cells. Our aim was to identify areas facing irreversible ecosystem shifts caused by deer overpopulation and in need of management prioritization. Our results demonstrated that the areas with heavy impacts on vegetation were widely distributed across Japan from north to south and from the coastal to the alpine areas. Grid-cells with heavy impacts are especially expanding in the southwestern part of the Pacific side of Japan. The intensity of deer impacts was explained by four factors: (1) the number of 5-km grid-cells with sika deer in neighboring 5 km-grid-cells in 1978 and 2003, (2) the year sika deer were first recorded in a grid-cell, (3) the number of months in which maximum snow depth exceeded 50 cm, and (4) the proportion of urban areas in a particular grid-cell. Based on our model, areas with long-persistent deer populations, short snow periods, and fewer urban areas were predicted to be the most vulnerable to deer impact. Although many areas matching these criteria already have heavy deer impact, there are some areas that remain only slightly impacted. These areas may need to be designated as having high management priority because of the possibility of a rapid intensification of deer impact.