Trial of Decompressive Craniectomy for Traumatic Intracranial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The effect of decompressive craniectomy on clinical outcomes in patients with refractory traumatic intracranial hypertension remains unclear. METHODS: From 2004 through 2014, we randomly assigned 408 patients, 10 to 65 years of age, with traumatic brain injury and refractory elevated intracranial pressure (>25 mm Hg) to undergo decompressive craniectomy or receive ongoing medical care. The primary outcome was the rating on the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) (an 8-point scale, ranging from death to "upper good recovery" [no injury-related problems]) at 6 months. The primary-outcome measure was analyzed with an ordinal method based on the proportional-odds model. If the model was rejected, that would indicate a significant difference in the GOS-E distribution, and results would be reported descriptively. RESULTS: The GOS-E distribution differed between the two groups (P<0.001). The proportional-odds assumption was rejected, and therefore results are reported descriptively. At 6 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 26.9% among 201 patients in the surgical group versus 48.9% among 188 patients in the medical group; vegetative state, 8.5% versus 2.1%; lower severe disability (dependent on others for care), 21.9% versus 14.4%; upper severe disability (independent at home), 15.4% versus 8.0%; moderate disability, 23.4% versus 19.7%; and good recovery, 4.0% versus 6.9%. At 12 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 30.4% among 194 surgical patients versus 52.0% among 179 medical patients; vegetative state, 6.2% versus 1.7%; lower severe disability, 18.0% versus 14.0%; upper severe disability, 13.4% versus 3.9%; moderate disability, 22.2% versus 20.1%; and good recovery, 9.8% versus 8.4%. Surgical patients had fewer hours than medical patients with intracranial pressure above 25 mm Hg after randomization (median, 5.0 vs. 17.0 hours; P<0.001) but had a higher rate of adverse events (16.3% vs. 9.2%, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: At 6 months, decompressive craniectomy in patients with traumatic brain injury and refractory intracranial hypertension resulted in lower mortality and higher rates of vegetative state, lower severe disability, and upper severe disability than medical care. The rates of moderate disability and good recovery were similar in the two groups. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; RESCUEicp Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN66202560 .).

Hypothermia for Intracranial Hypertension after Traumatic Brain Injury.

BACKGROUND: In patients with traumatic brain injury, hypothermia can reduce intracranial hypertension. The benefit of hypothermia on functional outcome is unclear. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults with an intracranial pressure of more than 20 mm Hg despite stage 1 treatments (including mechanical ventilation and sedation management) to standard care (control group) or hypothermia (32 to 35°C) plus standard care. In the control group, stage 2 treatments (e.g., osmotherapy) were added as needed to control intracranial pressure. In the hypothermia group, stage 2 treatments were added only if hypothermia failed to control intracranial pressure. In both groups, stage 3 treatments (barbiturates and decompressive craniectomy) were used if all stage 2 treatments failed to control intracranial pressure. The primary outcome was the score on the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E; range, 1 to 8, with lower scores indicating a worse functional outcome) at 6 months. The treatment effect was estimated with ordinal logistic regression adjusted for prespecified prognostic factors and expressed as a common odds ratio (with an odds ratio <1.0 favoring hypothermia). RESULTS: We enrolled 387 patients at 47 centers in 18 countries from November 2009 through October 2014, at which time recruitment was suspended owing to safety concerns. Stage 3 treatments were required to control intracranial pressure in 54% of the patients in the control group and in 44% of the patients in the hypothermia group. The adjusted common odds ratio for the GOS-E score was 1.53 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 2.30; P=0.04), indicating a worse outcome in the hypothermia group than in the control group. A favorable outcome (GOS-E score of 5 to 8, indicating moderate disability or good recovery) occurred in 26% of the patients in the hypothermia group and in 37% of the patients in the control group (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with an intracranial pressure of more than 20 mm Hg after traumatic brain injury, therapeutic hypothermia plus standard care to reduce intracranial pressure did not result in outcomes better than those with standard care alone. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN34555414.).

Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. METHODS: We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. RESULTS: For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. CONCLUSIONS: Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses.

A closed testing procedure to select an appropriate method for updating prediction models.

Prediction models fitted with logistic regression often show poor performance when applied in populations other than the development population. Model updating may improve predictions. Previously suggested methods vary in their extensiveness of updating the model. We aim to define a strategy in selecting an appropriate update method that considers the balance between the amount of evidence for updating in the new patient sample and the danger of overfitting. We consider recalibration in the large (re-estimation of model intercept); recalibration (re-estimation of intercept and slope) and model revision (re-estimation of all coefficients) as update methods. We propose a closed testing procedure that allows the extensiveness of the updating to increase progressively from a minimum (the original model) to a maximum (a completely revised model). The procedure involves multiple testing with maintaining approximately the chosen type I error rate. We illustrate this approach with three clinical examples: patients with prostate cancer, traumatic brain injury and children presenting with fever. The need for updating the prostate cancer model was completely driven by a different model intercept in the update sample (adjustment: 2.58). Separate testing of model revision against the original model showed statistically significant results, but led to overfitting (calibration slope at internal validation = 0.86). The closed testing procedure selected recalibration in the large as update method, without overfitting. The advantage of the closed testing procedure was confirmed by the other two examples. We conclude that the proposed closed testing procedure may be useful in selecting appropriate update methods for previously developed prediction models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Five-Year Mortality and Hospital Costs Associated with Surviving Intensive Care.

RATIONALE: Survivors of critical illness experience significant morbidity, but the impact of surviving the intensive care unit (ICU) has not been quantified comprehensively at a population level. OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with increased hospital resource use and to ascertain whether ICU admission was associated with increased mortality and resource use. METHODS: Matched cohort study and pre/post-analysis using national linked data registries with complete population coverage. The population consisted of patients admitted to all adult general ICUs during 2005 and surviving to hospital discharge, identified from the Scottish Intensive Care Society Audit Group registry, matched (1:1) with similar hospital control subjects. Five-year outcomes included mortality and hospital resource use. Confounder adjustment was based on multivariable regression and pre/post within-individual analyses. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 7,656 ICU patients, 5,259 survived to hospital discharge (5,215 [99.2%] matched to hospital control subjects). Factors present before ICU admission (comorbidities/pre-ICU hospitalizations) were stronger predictors of hospital resource use than acute illness factors. In the 5 years after the initial hospital discharge, compared with hospital control subjects, the ICU cohort had higher mortality (32.3% vs. 22.7%; hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.46; P < 0.001), used more hospital resources (mean hospital admission rate, 4.8 vs. 3.3/person/5 yr), and had 51% higher mean 5-year hospital costs ($25,608 vs. $16,913/patient). Increased resource use persisted after confounder adjustment (P < 0.001) and using pre/post-analyses (P < 0.001). Excess resource use and mortality were greatest for younger patients without significant comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This complete, national study demonstrates that ICU survivorship is associated with higher 5-year mortality and hospital resource use than hospital control subjects, representing a substantial burden on individuals, caregivers, and society.

Effects of Alteplase for Acute Stroke on the Distribution of Functional Outcomes: A Pooled Analysis of 9 Trials.

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase within 4.5 hours of ischemic stroke onset increases the overall likelihood of an excellent outcome (no, or nondisabling, symptoms). Any improvement in functional outcome distribution has value, and herein we provide an assessment of the effect of alteplase on the distribution of the functional level by treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. METHODS: Prespecified pooled analysis of 6756 patients from 9 randomized trials comparing alteplase versus placebo/open control. Ordinal logistic regression models assessed treatment differences after adjustment for treatment delay, age, stroke severity, and relevant interaction term(s). RESULTS: Treatment with alteplase was beneficial for a delay in treatment extending to 4.5 hours after stroke onset, with a greater benefit with earlier treatment. Neither age nor stroke severity significantly influenced the slope of the relationship between benefit and time to treatment initiation. For the observed case mix of patients treated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset (mean 3 hours and 20 minutes), the net absolute benefit from alteplase (ie, the difference between those who would do better if given alteplase and those who would do worse) was 55 patients per 1000 treated (95% confidence interval, 13-91; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with intravenous alteplase initiated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset increases the chance of achieving an improved level of function for all patients across the age spectrum, including the over 80s and across all severities of stroke studied (top versus bottom fifth means: 22 versus 4); the earlier that treatment is initiated, the greater the benefit.

Decompressive craniectomy following traumatic brain injury: developing the evidence base.

In the context of traumatic brain injury (TBI), decompressive craniectomy (DC) is used as part of tiered therapeutic protocols for patients with intracranial hypertension (secondary or protocol-driven DC). In addition, the bone flap can be left out when evacuating a mass lesion, usually an acute subdural haematoma (ASDH), in the acute phase (primary DC). Even though, the principle of "opening the skull" in order to control brain oedema and raised intracranial pressure has been practised since the beginning of the 20th century, the last 20 years have been marked by efforts to develop the evidence base with the conduct of randomised trials. This article discusses the merits and challenges of this approach and provides an overview of randomised trials of DC following TBI. An update on the RESCUEicp study, a randomised trial of DC versus advanced medical management (including barbiturates) for severe and refractory post-traumatic intracranial hypertension is provided. In addition, the rationale for the RESCUE-ASDH study, the first randomised trial of primary DC versus craniotomy for adult head-injured patients with an ASDH, is presented.

Alteplase for acute ischemic stroke: outcomes by clinically important subgroups in the Third International Stroke Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Our aim was to identify whether particular subgroups of patients had an unacceptably high risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or low chance of benefit when treated with alteplase (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator). METHODS: Third International Stroke Trial was an international randomized trial of the intravenous (IV) recombinant plasminogen activator alteplase (0.9 mg/kg) versus control in 3035 (1515 versus 1520) patients. We analyzed the effect of recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator on 6-month functional outcome, early death, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (both ≤7 days). We tested for any differences in treatment effect between subgroups by a test of interaction. Our 13 protocol prespecified subgroups were time to randomization, age, sex, stroke subtype, atrial fibrillation, early ischemic change (clinician and expert panel), prior antiplatelet use, stroke severity, diastolic and systolic blood pressure at randomization, center's thrombolysis experience, and trial phase. Analyses were adjusted for key baseline prognostic factors. RESULTS: There were no significant interactions in the subgroups analyzed that were consistent across all 3 outcomes. Treatment with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage by a greater amount in patients taking prior antiplatelets than those who were not (P=0.019 for test of interaction), but had no clear detrimental effect on functional outcome at 6 months in this group (P=0.781 for test of interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Among the types of patient in the Third International Stroke Trial, this secondary analysis did not identify any subgroups for whom treatment should be avoided. Given the limitations of the analysis, we found no clear evidence to avoid treatment in patients with prior ischemic stroke, diabetes mellitus, or hypertension. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN25765518. http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN25765518.

Early surgery versus initial conservative treatment in patients with spontaneous supratentorial lobar intracerebral haematomas (STICH II): a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The balance of risk and benefit from early neurosurgical intervention for conscious patients with superficial lobar intracerebral haemorrhage of 10-100 mL and no intraventricular haemorrhage admitted within 48 h of ictus is unclear. We therefore tested the hypothesis that early surgery compared with initial conservative treatment could improve outcome in these patients. METHODS: In this international, parallel-group trial undertaken in 78 centres in 27 countries, we compared early surgical haematoma evacuation within 12 h of randomisation plus medical treatment with initial medical treatment alone (later evacuation was allowed if judged necessary). An automatic telephone and internet-based randomisation service was used to assign patients to surgery and initial conservative treatment in a 1:1 ratio. The trial was not masked. The primary outcome was a prognosis-based dichotomised (favourable or unfavourable) outcome of the 8 point Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) obtained by questionnaires posted to patients at 6 months. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN22153967. FINDINGS: 307 of 601 patients were randomly assigned to early surgery and 294 to initial conservative treatment; 298 and 291 were followed up at 6 months, respectively; and 297 and 286 were included in the analysis, respectively. 174 (59%) of 297 patients in the early surgery group had an unfavourable outcome versus 178 (62%) of 286 patients in the initial conservative treatment group (absolute difference 3·7% [95% CI -4·3 to 11·6], odds ratio 0·86 [0·62 to 1·20]; p=0·367). INTERPRETATION: The STICH II results confirm that early surgery does not increase the rate of death or disability at 6 months and might have a small but clinically relevant survival advantage for patients with spontaneous superficial intracerebral haemorrhage without intraventricular haemorrhage. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Formal and informal prediction of recurrent stroke and myocardial infarction after stroke: a systematic review and evaluation of clinical prediction models in a new cohort.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to: (1) systematically review the reporting and methods used in the development of clinical prediction models for recurrent stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) after ischemic stroke; (2) to meta-analyze their external performance; and (3) to compare clinical prediction models to informal clinicians' prediction in the Edinburgh Stroke Study (ESS). METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, reference lists and forward citations of relevant articles from 1980 to 19 April 2013. We included articles which developed multivariable clinical prediction models for the prediction of recurrent stroke and/or MI following ischemic stroke. We extracted information to assess aspects of model development as well as metrics of performance to determine predictive ability. Model quality was assessed against a pre-defined set of criteria. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool performance metrics. RESULTS: We identified twelve model development studies and eleven evaluation studies. Investigators often did not report effective sample size, regression coefficients, handling of missing data; typically categorized continuous predictors; and used data dependent methods to build models. A meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was possible for the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and for the Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II); the pooled AUROCCs were 0.60 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.62) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.64), respectively. An evaluation among minor stroke patients in the ESS demonstrated that clinicians discriminated poorly between those with and those without recurrent events and that this was similar to clinical prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: The available models for recurrent stroke discriminate poorly between patients with and without a recurrent stroke or MI after stroke. Models had a similar discrimination to informal clinicians' predictions. Formal prediction may be improved by addressing commonly encountered methodological problems.

A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase IIB clinical trial of repeated application of gene therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis.

The UK Cystic Fibrosis Gene Therapy Consortium has been working towards clinical gene therapy for patients with cystic fibrosis for several years. We have recently embarked on a large, multi-dose clinical trial of a non-viral, liposome-based formulation powered for the first time to detect clinical benefit. The article describes the details of the protocol.

Surviving intensive care: a systematic review of healthcare resource use after hospital discharge*.

OBJECTIVES: Intensive care survivors continue to experience significant morbidity following acute hospital discharge, but healthcare costs associated with this ongoing morbidity are poorly described. As the demand for intensive care increases, understanding the magnitude of postacute hospital healthcare costs is of increasing relevance to clinicians and healthcare planners. We undertook a systematic review of the literature reporting major healthcare resource use by intensive care survivors following discharge from the hospital and identified factors associated with increased resource use. DATA SOURCES: Seven electronic databases (1990 to August 2012), conference proceedings, and reference lists were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Studies published in English were included that reported postacute hospital discharge healthcare resource use at the individual level for survivors of intensive care. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers screened abstracts and one abstracted data using standardized templates. Study quality was assessed using recognized appraisal methods specific to economic evaluation, epidemiological studies, and randomized trials. DATA SYNTHESIS: From 4,909 articles, 18 articles representing 14 cohorts fulfilled inclusion criteria. There was substantial variation in methodology, especially the resource categories included in the studies. Following standardization to a common currency and year, variation in cost of resource use was evident (range 2011 US $18,847-$148,454 for year 1 postdischarge). Studies undertaken within the United States reported the highest costs; those in the United Kingdom reported substantially lower costs. Factors associated with increased resource use included increasing age, comorbidities, organ dysfunction score, and previous resource use. CONCLUSIONS: Wide variation in methodological approaches limited study comparability and external validity of findings. We found substantial variation in the cost of resource use, especially among countries. Careful description of patient cohorts and healthcare systems is required to maximize generalizability. We give recommendations for a more standardized approach to improve design and reporting of future studies.

Protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of prognostic factors of foot ulceration in people with diabetes: the international research collaboration for the prediction of diabetic foot ulcerations (PODUS).

BACKGROUND: Diabetes-related lower limb amputations are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality and are usually preceded by foot ulceration. The available systematic reviews of aggregate data are compromised because the primary studies report both adjusted and unadjusted estimates. As adjusted meta-analyses of aggregate data can be challenging, the best way to standardise the analytical approach is to conduct a meta-analysis based on individual patient data (IPD).There are however many challenges and fundamental methodological omissions are common; protocols are rare and the assessment of the risk of bias arising from the conduct of individual studies is frequently not performed, largely because of the absence of widely agreed criteria for assessing the risk of bias in this type of review. In this protocol we propose key methodological approaches to underpin our IPD systematic review of prognostic factors of foot ulceration in diabetes.Review questions;1. What are the most highly prognostic factors for foot ulceration (i.e. symptoms, signs, diagnostic tests) in people with diabetes?2. Can the data from each study be adjusted for a consistent set of adjustment factors?3. Does the model accuracy change when patient populations are stratified according to demographic and/or clinical characteristics? METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from their inception until early 2012 were searched and the corresponding authors of all eligible primary studies invited to contribute their raw data. We developed relevant quality assurance items likely to identify occasions when study validity may have been compromised from several sources. A confidentiality agreement, arrangements for communication and reporting as well as ethical and governance considerations are explained.We have agreement from the corresponding authors of all studies which meet the eligibility criteria and they collectively possess data from more than 17000 patients. We propose, as a provisional analysis plan, to use a multi-level mixed model, using "study" as one of the levels. Such a model can also allow for the within-patient clustering that occurs if a patient contributes data from both feet, although to aid interpretation, we prefer to use patients rather than feet as the unit of analysis. We intend to only attempt this analysis if the results of the investigation of heterogeneity do not rule it out and the model diagnostics are acceptable. DISCUSSION: This review is central to the development of a global evidence-based strategy for the risk assessment of the foot in patients with diabetes, ensuring future recommendations are valid and can reliably inform international clinical guidelines.

Relation between change in blood pressure in acute stroke and risk of early adverse events and poor outcome.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Scandinavian Candesartan Acute Stroke Trial (SCAST) found no benefits of candesartan in acute stroke. In the present analysis we aim to investigate the effect of change in blood pressure during the first 2 days of stroke on the risk of early adverse events and poor outcome. METHODS: SCAST was a multicenter, randomized controlled, double-blind trial of candesartan in acute stroke. The trial recruited 2029 patients presenting within 30 hours of acute stroke and with systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mm Hg. Treatment was given for 7 days. Change in blood pressure was defined as the difference in SBP between baseline and Day 2 and was used to divide patients into groups with increase/no change, a small decrease, moderate decrease, or large decrease in SBP. The primary effect parameter was early adverse events (recurrent stroke, stroke progression, and symptomatic hypotension) during the first 7 days, analyzed using logistic regression, with the group with a small decrease in SBP as the reference group. Secondary effect parameters were neurological status at 7 days and functional outcome at 6 months. RESULTS: Patients with a large decrease or increase/no change in SBP had a significantly increased risk of early adverse events relative to patients with a small decrease (OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.19-3.65 and OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.13-3.38, respectively). Patients with an increase/no change in SBP had a significantly increased risk of poor neurological outcome as compared with the other groups (P=0.001). No differences were observed in functional outcome at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the suggestion from SCAST that blood pressure reduction may be harmful and that routine blood pressure-lowering treatment should probably be avoided in the acute phase. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00120003.

The angiotensin-receptor blocker candesartan for treatment of acute stroke (SCAST): a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial.

BACKGROUND: Raised blood pressure is common in acute stroke, and is associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes. We aimed to examine whether careful blood-pressure lowering treatment with the angiotensin-receptor blocker candesartan is beneficial in patients with acute stroke and raised blood pressure. METHODS: Participants in this randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial were recruited from 146 centres in nine north European countries. Patients older than 18 years with acute stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic) and systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher were included within 30 h of symptom onset. Patients were randomly allocated to candesartan or placebo (1:1) for 7 days, with doses increasing from 4 mg on day 1 to 16 mg on days 3 to 7. Randomisation was stratified by centre, with blocks of six packs of candesartan or placebo. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. There were two co-primary effect variables: the composite endpoint of vascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke during the first 6 months; and functional outcome at 6 months, as measured by the modified Rankin Scale. Analyses were by intention to treat. The study is registered, number NCT00120003 (ClinicalTrials.gov), and ISRCTN13643354. FINDINGS: 2029 patients were randomly allocated to treatment groups (1017 candesartan, 1012 placebo), and data for status at 6 months were available for 2004 patients (99%; 1000 candesartan, 1004 placebo). During the 7-day treatment period, blood pressures were significantly lower in patients allocated candesartan than in those on placebo (mean 147/82 mm Hg [SD 23/14] in the candesartan group on day 7 vs 152/84 mm Hg [22/14] in the placebo group; p<0·0001). During 6 months' follow-up, the risk of the composite vascular endpoint did not differ between treatment groups (candesartan, 120 events, vs placebo, 111 events; adjusted hazard ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·84-1·41; p=0·52). Analysis of functional outcome suggested a higher risk of poor outcome in the candesartan group (adjusted common odds ratio 1·17, 95% CI 1·00-1·38; p=0·048 [not significant at p≤0·025 level]). The observed effects were similar for all prespecified secondary endpoints (including death from any cause, vascular death, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, myocardial infarction, stroke progression, symptomatic hypotension, and renal failure) and outcomes (Scandinavian Stroke Scale score at 7 days and Barthel index at 6 months), and there was no evidence of a differential effect in any of the prespecified subgroups. During follow-up, nine (1%) patients on candesartan and five (<1%) on placebo had symptomatic hypotension, and renal failure was reported for 18 (2%) patients taking candesartan and 13 (1%) allocated placebo. INTERPRETATION: There was no indication that careful blood-pressure lowering treatment with the angiotensin-receptor blocker candesartan is beneficial in patients with acute stroke and raised blood pressure. If anything, the evidence suggested a harmful effect. FUNDING: South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority; Oslo University Hospital Ullevål; AstraZeneca; Takeda.

Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: external validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models.

OBJECTIVE: The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation after Significant Head injury prognostic models for prediction of outcome after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. DESIGN: External validation study. PATIENTS: We considered five new datasets with a total of 9,036 patients, comprising three randomized trials and two observational series, containing prospectively collected individual traumatic brain injury patient data. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome, based on the Glasgow Outcome Score at 6 months after injury. To assess performance, we studied the discrimination of the models (by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves), and calibration (by comparison of the mean observed to predicted outcomes and calibration slopes). The highest discrimination was found in the Trauma Audit and Research Network trauma registry (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.83 and 0.87), and the lowest discrimination in the Pharmos trial (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.65 and 0.71). Although differences in predictor effects between development and validation populations were found (calibration slopes varying between 0.58 and 1.53), the differences in discrimination were largely explained by differences in case mix in the validation studies. Calibration was good, the fraction of observed outcomes generally agreed well with the mean predicted outcome. No meaningful differences were noted in performance between the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury models. More complex models discriminated slightly better than simpler variants. CONCLUSIONS: Since both the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and the Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models show good generalizability to more recent data, they are valid instruments to quantify prognosis in traumatic brain injury.

Persistence, adherence and outcomes with antiplatelet regimens following cerebral infarction in the Tayside Stroke Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Co-prescribed aspirin and dipyridamole are more effective than aspirin alone following cerebral infarction; however, patients may struggle with this more complex regimen. The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe postdischarge prescribing of antiplatelet regimens, (2) to measure patient persistence with different antiplatelet regimens, and (3) to measure whether persistence impacts on outcomes. METHODS: We used record linkage of the Tayside Stroke Cohort with community dispensed prescribing data from 1994 to 2005. All patients had suffered a radiologically confirmed cerebral infarction and were excluded if they had previously used or had other indications for antiplatelet agents. We measured persistence to initial and any antiplatelet regimen using survival analysis. To assess the impact of therapy we used survival analysis to follow up until the APTC endpoint of serious vascular event (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) or censored. Antiplatelet regimen was entered as a time-dependent covariate in a Cox model that also adjusted for age, sex, history of diabetes and baseline use of nitrates and statins. RESULTS: The study cohort contained 1,407 stroke patients (mean age 70.3 years, 46.8% male), with a total follow-up of 4,243 patient-years. Patients initiated on aspirin with dipyridamole had a worse persistence to their initial regimen compared with those initiated on aspirin alone (hazard ratio for non-persistence 1.62; 95% CI 1.37-1.92), but better persistence with any antiplatelet medication long term (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% CI 0.73-1.02). Compared to aspirin monotherapy, receiving no antiplatelet therapy was associated with significantly worse patient outcomes (hazard ratio 1.50; 95% CI 1.21-1.87), whilst receiving prescribed aspirin with dipyridamole was associated with better outcomes (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% CI 0.56-0.99). Only a few patients received clopidogrel or other antiplatelet regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Patients discharged on dual therapy have worse adherence to their initial regimen but better persistence to any antiplatelet agents in the long term. Continued exposure to antiplatelet regimens predicts good outcomes in patients with cerebral infarction.

Evaluation of Outcomes Among Patients With Traumatic Intracranial Hypertension Treated With Decompressive Craniectomy vs Standard Medical Care at 24 Months: A Secondary Analysis of the RESCUEicp Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Trials often assess primary outcomes of traumatic brain injury at 6 months. Longer-term data are needed to assess outcomes for patients receiving surgical vs medical treatment for traumatic intracranial hypertension. Objective: To evaluate 24-month outcomes for patients with traumatic intracranial hypertension treated with decompressive craniectomy or standard medical care. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prespecified secondary analysis of the Randomized Evaluation of Surgery With Craniectomy for Uncontrollable Elevation of Intracranial Pressure (RESCUEicp) randomized clinical trial data was performed for patients with traumatic intracranial hypertension (>25 mm Hg) from 52 centers in 20 countries. Enrollment occurred between January 2004 and March 2014. Data were analyzed between 2018 and 2021. Eligibility criteria were age 10 to 65 years, traumatic brain injury (confirmed via computed tomography), intracranial pressure monitoring, and sustained and refractory elevated intracranial pressure for 1 to 12 hours despite pressure-controlling measures. Exclusion criteria were bilateral fixed and dilated pupils, bleeding diathesis, or unsurvivable injury. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive a decompressive craniectomy with standard care (surgical group) or to ongoing medical treatment with the option to add barbiturate infusion (medical group). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was measured with the 8-point Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (1 indicates death and 8 denotes upper good recovery), and the 6- to 24-month outcome trajectory was examined. Results: This study enrolled 408 patients: 206 in the surgical group and 202 in the medical group. The mean (SD) age was 32.3 (13.2) and 34.8 (13.7) years, respectively, and the study population was predominantly male (165 [81.7%] and 156 [80.0%], respectively). At 24 months, patients in the surgical group had reduced mortality (61 [33.5%] vs 94 [54.0%]; absolute difference, -20.5 [95% CI, -30.8 to -10.2]) and higher rates of vegetative state (absolute difference, 4.3 [95% CI, 0.0 to 8.6]), lower or upper moderate disability (4.7 [-0.9 to 10.3] vs 2.8 [-4.2 to 9.8]), and lower or upper severe disability (2.2 [-5.4 to 9.8] vs 6.5 [1.8 to 11.2]; χ27 = 24.20, P = .001). For every 100 individuals treated surgically, 21 additional patients survived at 24 months; 4 were in a vegetative state, 2 had lower and 7 had upper severe disability, and 5 had lower and 3 had upper moderate disability, respectively. Rates of lower and upper good recovery were similar for the surgical and medical groups (20 [11.0%] vs 19 [10.9%]), and significant differences in net improvement (≥1 grade) were observed between 6 and 24 months (55 [30.0%] vs 25 [14.0%]; χ22 = 13.27, P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: At 24 months, patients with surgically treated posttraumatic refractory intracranial hypertension had a sustained reduction in mortality and higher rates of vegetative state, severe disability, and moderate disability. Patients in the surgical group were more likely to improve over time vs patients in the medical group. Trial Registration: ISRCTN Identifier: 66202560.

Genetic associations between fibrinogen and cognitive performance in three Scottish cohorts.

There is increasing evidence to suggest that elevated plasma levels of fibrinogen are associated with late-life cognitive performance. This study tested the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the fibrinogen α (FGA) and ß (FGB) genes with cognitive performance. Data were analysed from three community-dwelling populations of older persons (>50 years) in central Scotland: the Aspirin for Asymptomatic Atherosclerosis (AAA) Trial (n = 2,091), the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS, n = 1,066), and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936, n = 1,091). Cognition was assessed using a battery of five, seven, and four psychometric tests, respectively. This information was used to derive a general cognitive factor. Weakly significant associations were found between the rs4220 (FGB), and rs2227412 (FGB) SNPs and a single test of cognitive performance in the AAA Trial (p < 0.05). These findings did not replicate in the LBC1936 or ET2DS cohorts, except for the rs2227412 SNP, which was significantly associated with the general cognitive factor in the ET2DS (p = 3.3 × 10(-4)). A summary term that combined results from all three studies suggested that the rs2227412 genotype associated with reduced cognitive ability also associated with higher plasma fibrinogen levels. These findings suggest a tentative role for fibrinogen as a determinant of late-life cognitive performance and justify further attempts at replication in older persons.