Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018).

BACKGROUND: For assessing the HIV epidemic in Kenya, a series of independent HIV indicator household-based surveys of similar design can be used to investigate the trends in key indicators relevant to HIV prevention and control and to describe geographic and sociodemographic disparities, assess the impact of interventions, and develop strategies. We developed methods and tools to facilitate a robust analysis of trends across three national household-based surveys conducted in Kenya in 2007, 2012, and 2018. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator surveys (KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012) and the 2018 Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA 2018). To assess the design and other variables of interest from each study, variables were recoded to ensure that they had equivalent meanings across the three surveys. After assessing weighting procedures for comparability, we used the KAIS 2012 nonresponse weighting procedure to revise normalized KENPHIA weights. Analyses were restricted to geographic areas covered by all three surveys. The revised analysis files were then merged into a single file for pooled analysis. We assessed distributions of age, sex, household wealth, and urban/rural status to identify unexpected changes between surveys. To demonstrate how a trend analysis can be carried out, we used continuous, binary, and time-to-event variables as examples. Specifically, temporal trends in age at first sex and having received an HIV test in the last 12 months were used to demonstrate the proposed analytical approach. These were assessed with respondent-specific variables (age, sex, level of education, and marital status) and household variables (place of residence and wealth index). All analyses were conducted in SAS 9.4, but analysis files were created in Stata and R format to support additional analyses. RESULTS: This study demonstrates trends in selected indicators to illustrate the approach that can be used in similar settings. The incidence of early sexual debut decreased from 11.63 (95% CI: 10.95-12.34) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2007 to 10.45 (95% CI: 9.75-11.2) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2012 and to 9.58 (95% CI: 9.08-10.1) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2018. HIV-testing rates increased from 12.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-13.6%) in 2007 to 56.1% (95% CI: 54.6%-57.6%) in 2012 but decreased slightly to 55.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) in 2018. The decrease in incidence of early sexual debut could be convincingly demonstrated between 2007 and 2012 but not between 2012 and 2018. Similarly, there was virtually no difference between HIV Testing rates in 2012 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be used to support trend comparisons for variables in HIV surveys in low-income settings. Independent national household surveys can be assessed for comparability, adjusted as appropriate, and used to estimate trends in key indicators. Analyzing trends over time can not only provide insights into Kenya's progress toward HIV epidemic control but also identify gaps.

Male circumcision programmes in Kenya: lessons from the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey 2007.

OBJECTIVE: To provide guidance for male circumcision programmes in Kenya by estimating the population of uncircumcised men and investigating the association between circumcision and infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with particular reference to uncircumcised, HIV-uninfected men. METHODS: Data on men aged 15 to 64 years were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey, which involved interviews and blood collection to test for HIV and herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2). The prevalence of HIV infection and circumcision in Kenyan provinces was calculated and the demographic characteristics and sexual behaviour of circumcised and uncircumcised, HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected men were recorded. FINDINGS: The national prevalence of HIV infection in uncircumcised men was 13.2% (95% confidence interval, CI: 10.8-15.7) compared with 3.9% (95% CI: 3.3-4.5) among circumcised men. Nyanza province had the largest estimated number of uncircumcised, HIV-uninfected men (i.e. 601 709), followed by Rift Valley, Nairobi and Western Province, respectively, and most belonged to the Luo ethnic tribe. Of these men, 77.8% did not know their HIV status and 33.2% were HSV-2-positive. In addition, 65.3% had had unprotected sex with a partner of discordant or unknown HIV status in the past 12 months and only 14.7% consistently used condoms with their most recent partner. However, only 21.8% of the uncircumcised, HIV-uninfected men aged 15 to 19 years were sexually active. CONCLUSION: The Kenyan male circumcision strategy should focus on the provinces with the highest number of uncircumcised, HIV-uninfected men and target young men before or shortly after sexual debut.

Lessons learned in the conduct, validation, and interpretation of national population based HIV surveys.

In the past few years several countries have conducted national population-based HIV surveys. Survey methods, levels of participation bias from absence or refusal and lessons learned conducting such surveys are compared in four national population surveys: Mali, Kenya, Peru and Zambia. In Mali, Zambia, and Kenya, HIV testing of adult women and men was included in the national-level demographic and health surveys carried out regularly in these countries, whereas in Peru the national HIV survey targeted young people in 24 cities with populations over 50 000.The household response rate was above 90% in all countries, but some individuals were absent for interviews. HIV testing rates were between 70 and 79% of those eligible, with higher test rates for women. Three critical questions in this type of survey need to be answered: who did the surveys miss; how much it matters that they were missed; and what can be done to increase the participation of respondents so the coverage rates are adequate. The level of representativeness of the populations tested was adequate in each survey to provide a reliable national estimate of HIV prevalence that complements other methods of HIV surveillance. Different lessons were learned from each survey. These population-based HIV seroprevalence surveys demonstrate that reliable and useful results can be obtained, although they require careful planning and increased financial and human resource investment to maximize responses at the household and individual level, which are key elements to validate survey results.This review was initiated through an international meeting on 'New strategies for HIV/AIDS Surveillance in Resource-constrained Countries' held in Addis Ababa on 26-30 January 2004 to share and develop recommendations to guide future surveys.

Prevalence and incidence of HIV infection, trends, and risk factors among persons aged 15-64 years in Kenya: results from a nationally representative study.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced HIV surveillance using demographic, behavioral, and biologic data from national surveys can provide information to evaluate and respond to HIV epidemics efficiently. METHODS: From October 2012 to February 2013, we conducted a 2-stage cluster sampling survey of persons aged 18 months to 64 years in 9 geographic regions in Kenya. Participants answered questionnaires and provided blood for HIV testing. We estimated HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, described trends in HIV prevalence over the past 5 years, and identified factors associated with HIV infection. This analysis was restricted to persons aged 15-64 years. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 5.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.9 to 6.3] in 2012, a significant decrease from 2007, when HIV prevalence, excluding the North Eastern region, was 7.2% (95% CI: 6.6 to 7.9). HIV incidence was 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.9) in 2012. Among women, factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection included being aged 35-39 years, divorced or separated, from urban residences and Nyanza region, self-perceiving a moderate risk of HIV infection, condom use with the last partner in the previous 12 months, and reporting 4 or more lifetime number of partners. Among men, widowhood, condom use with the last partner in the previous 12 months, and lack of circumcision were associated with undiagnosed HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence has declined in Kenya since 2007. With improved access to treatment, HIV prevalence has become more challenging to interpret without data on new infections and mortality. Correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection provide important information on where to prioritize prevention interventions to reduce transmission of HIV in the broader population.

Knowledge of HIV status, sexual risk behaviors and contraceptive need among people living with HIV in Kenya and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Several studies support the need for effective interventions to reduce HIV transmission risk behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs). DESIGN: Cross-sectional nationally representative demographic health survey of Kenya (2003) and Malawi (2004-2005) that included HIV testing for consenting adults. METHODS: We analyzed demographic health survey data for awareness of HIV status and sexual behaviors of PLWHAs (Kenya: 412; Malawi: 664). The analysis was adjusted (weighted) for the design of the survey and the results are nationally representative. FINDINGS: Eighty-four percent of PLWHAs in Kenya and 86% in Malawi had sex in the past 12 months and in each country, 10% reported using condoms at last intercourse. Among sexually active PLWHAs, 86% in Kenya and 96% in Malawi reported their spouse or cohabiting partner as their most recent partner. In multivariate logistic regression models, married or cohabiting PLWHAs were significantly more likely to be sexually active and less likely to use condoms. Over 80% of PLWHAs were unaware of their HIV status. Of HIV-infected women, nearly three-quarters did not want more children either within the next 2 years or ever, but 32% in Kenya and 20% in Malawi were using contraception. INTERPRETATION: In 2003-2005, majority of PLWHAs in Kenya and Malawi were unaware of their HIV status and were sexually active, especially married or cohabiting PLWHAs. Of HIV-infected women not wanting more children, few used contraception. HIV testing should be expanded, prevention programs should target married or cohabiting couples and family planning services should be integrated with HIV services.