Heatwaves and mortality in Queensland 2010-2019: implications for a homogenous state-wide approach.

Heatwaves are a significant cause of adverse health outcomes and mortality in Australia, worsening with climate change. In Queensland, the northeastern-most state, little is known about the impact of heatwaves outside of the capital city of Brisbane. This study aims to explore the impact of heatwaves on mortality across various demographic and environmental conditions within Queensland from 2010 to 2019. The Excess Heat Factor was used to indicate heatwave periods at the Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level. Registered deaths data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and heatwave data from the Bureau of Meteorology were matched using a case-crossover approach. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were calculated across years, regions, age, sex, rurality, socioeconomic status, and cause of death. Heatwaves were associated with a 5% increase in all-cause mortality compared to deaths on non-heatwave days, with variability across the state. The risk of death on a heatwave day versus a non-heatwave day varied by heatwave severity. Individuals living in urban centers, the elderly, and those living in regions of lower socioeconomic status were most impacted by heatwave mortality. The relative risk of dying from neoplasms, nervous system conditions, respiratory conditions, and mental and behavioral conditions increased during heatwaves. As heatwaves increase in Queensland due to climate change, understanding the impact of heatwaves on mortality across Queensland is important to tailor public health messages. There is considerable variability across communities, demographic groups, and medical conditions, and as such messages need to be tailored to risk.

Understanding current and projected emergency department presentations and associated healthcare costs in a changing thermal climate in Adelaide, South Australia.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to extreme temperatures is associated with increased emergency department (ED) presentations. The resulting burden on health service costs and the potential impact of climate change is largely unknown. This study examines the temperature-EDs/cost relationships in Adelaide, South Australia and how this may be impacted by increasing temperatures. METHODS: A time series analysis using a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to explore the exposure-response relationships. The net-attributable, cold-attributable and heat-attributable ED presentations for temperature-related diseases and costs were calculated for the baseline (2014-2017) and future periods (2034-2037 and 2054-2057) under three climate representative concentration pathways (RCPs). RESULTS: The baseline heat-attributable ED presentations were estimated to be 3600 (95% empirical CI (eCI) 700 to 6500) with associated cost of $A4.7 million (95% eCI 1.8 to 7.5). Heat-attributable ED presentations and costs were projected to increase during 2030s and 2050s with no change in the cold-attributable burden. Under RCP8.5 and population growth, the increase in heat-attributable burden would be 1.9% (95% eCI 0.8% to 3.0%) for ED presentations and 2.5% (95% eCI 1.3% to 3.7%) for ED costs during 2030s. Under the same conditions, the heat effect is expected to increase by 3.7% (95% eCI 1.7% to 5.6%) for ED presentations and 5.0% (95% eCI 2.6% to 7.1%) for ED costs during 2050s. CONCLUSIONS: Projected climate change is likely to increase heat-attributable emergency presentations and the associated costs in Adelaide. Planning health service resources to meet these changes will be necessary as part of broader risk mitigation strategies and public health adaptation actions.

Heatwave and work-related injuries and illnesses in Adelaide, Australia: a case-crossover analysis using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) as a universal heatwave index.

PURPOSE: Heatwaves, or extended periods of extreme heat, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with climate change, but their impact on occupational injury has not been extensively studied. We examined the relationship between heatwaves of varying severity and work-related injuries and illnesses. We used a newly proposed metric of heatwave severity, the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), which accounts for local climate characteristics and acclimatization and compared it with heatwaves defined by daily maximum temperature. METHODS: Work-related injuries and illnesses were identified from two administrative data sources: workers' compensation claims and work-related ambulance call-outs for the years 2003-2013 in Adelaide, Australia. The EHF metrics were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A time-stratified case-crossover regression model was used to examine associations between heatwaves of three levels of severity, workers' compensation claims, and work-related ambulance call-outs. RESULTS: There was an increase in work-related ambulance call-outs and compensation claims during low and moderately severe heatwaves as defined using the EHF, and a non-significant decline during high-severity heatwaves. Positive associations were observed during moderate heatwaves in compensation claims made by new workers (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.55), workers in medium-sized enterprises (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.30), indoor industries (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.17), males (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23) and laborers (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04-1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Workers should adopt appropriate precautions during moderately severe heatwaves, when the risks of work-related injuries and illnesses are increased. Workplace policies and guidelines need to consider the health and safety of workers during heatwaves with relevant prevention and adaptation measures.

Using the excess heat factor to indicate heatwave-related urinary disease: a case study in Adelaide, South Australia.

The excess heat factor (EHF) is being adopted nationally for heatwave forecasting in Australia, but there is limited research utilizing it as a predictor for heat-related morbidity from diseases of the urinary system (urinary diseases). In this study, the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific urinary disease categories was analyzed in relation to the EHF. Daily data for maximum and minimum temperature and data for metropolitan hospital emergency department presentations and inpatient admissions for urinary disease were acquired in Adelaide, South Australia, from 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014. An increased incidence for urolithiasis, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease, and lower urinary tract infections was associated with the EHF. Using the Australian national heatwave definition with the EHF, emergency department presentations increased on heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days for total urinary disease (IRR 1.046, 95% CI 1.016-1.076), urolithiasis (IRR 1.106, 95% 1.046-1.169), and acute kidney injury (AKI) (IRR 1.416, 95% CI 1.258-1.594). Likewise, inpatient admissions increased for total urinary disease (IRR 1.090, 95% CI 1.048-1.133) and AKI (IRR 1.335, 95% CI 1.204-1.480). The EHF is a reliable metric for predicting heat-induced morbidity from urinary disease. Climate change-related elevations in temperature can increase morbidity from urinary disease, especially AKI and urolithiasis. Diseases of the urinary system should be highlighted when providing public health guidance during heatwaves indicated by the EHF.

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult. METHODS: We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050. RESULTS: The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed.

Regional morbidity and mortality during heatwaves in South Australia.

Heatwaves can be a common occurrence in Australia, and the public health impacts can be severe. Heat warnings and interventions are being adopted widely to reduce the preventable health impacts. This study examines the effects of heatwaves on morbidity and mortality in different climatic regions in the state of South Australia, to inform the targeting of heat warnings according to regional needs. Heatwaves were defined using the excess heat factor (EHF), an index based on mean daily temperature indices that quantifies heatwave severity relative to the local climate. In all regions, there were increases in morbidity (daily rates of ambulance call-outs and heat-related emergency presentations and hospital admissions) on heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days, which increased with heatwave severity. This study demonstrates that a consistent measure for heatwave severity, based on EHF, can be used to underpin public health warnings for climatically diverse areas.

Extreme climatic conditions and health service utilisation across rural and metropolitan New South Wales.

Periods of successive extreme heat and cold temperature have major effects on human health and increase rates of health service utilisation. The severity of these events varies between geographic locations and populations. This study aimed to estimate the effects of heat waves and cold waves on health service utilisation across urban, regional and remote areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, during the 10-year study period 2005-2015. We divided the state into three regions and used 24 over-dispersed or zero-inflated Poisson time-series regression models to estimate the effect of heat waves and cold waves, of three levels of severity, on the rates of ambulance call-outs, emergency department (ED) presentations and mortality. We defined heat waves and cold waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and excess cold factor (ECF) metrics, respectively. Heat waves generally resulted in increased rates of ambulance call-outs, ED presentations and mortality across the three regions and the entire state. For all of NSW, very intense heat waves resulted in an increase of 10.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.5, 17.4%) in mortality, 3.4% (95% CI 0.8, 7.8%) in ED presentations and 10.9% (95% CI 7.7, 14.2%) in ambulance call-outs. Cold waves were shown to have significant effects on ED presentations (9.3% increase for intense events, 95% CI 8.0-10.6%) and mortality (8.8% increase for intense events, 95% CI 2.1-15.9%) in outer regional and remote areas. There was little evidence for an effect from cold waves on health service utilisation in major cities and inner regional areas. Heat waves have a large impact on health service utilisation in NSW in both urban and rural settings. Cold waves also have significant effects in outer regional and remote areas. EHF is a good predictor of health service utilisation for heat waves, although service needs may differ between urban and rural areas.

Determining the Impact of Heatwaves on Emergency Ambulance Calls in Queensland: A Retrospective Population-Based Study.

Heatwaves are a significant and growing threat to the health and well-being of the residents of Queensland, Australia. This threat is increasing due to climate change. Excess heat increases the demand for health services, including ambulance calls, and the purpose of this study was to explore this impact across Queensland. A state-wide retrospective analysis of heatwaves and emergency 'Triple Zero' (000) calls to Queensland Ambulance (QAS) from 2010-2019 was undertaken. Call data from the QAS and heatwave data from the Bureau of Meteorology were analysed using a case-crossover approach at the postcode level. Ambulance calls increased by 12.68% during heatwaves. The effect was greatest during low-severity heatwaves (22.16%), followed by severe (14.32%) and extreme heatwaves (1.16%). The impact varied by rurality, with those living in very remote areas and major cities most impacted, along with those of low and middle socioeconomic status during low and severe intensity heat events. Lag effects post-heatwave continued for at least 10 days. Heatwaves significantly increase ambulance call centre workload, so ambulance services must actively prepare resources and personnel to address increases in heatwave frequency, duration, and severity. Communities must be informed of the risks of heatwaves at all severities, particularly low severity, and the sustained risks in the days following a heat event.

Cellulose nanomaterials review: structure, properties and nanocomposites.

This critical review provides a processing-structure-property perspective on recent advances in cellulose nanoparticles and composites produced from them. It summarizes cellulose nanoparticles in terms of particle morphology, crystal structure, and properties. Also described are the self-assembly and rheological properties of cellulose nanoparticle suspensions. The methodology of composite processing and resulting properties are fully covered, with an emphasis on neat and high fraction cellulose composites. Additionally, advances in predictive modeling from molecular dynamic simulations of crystalline cellulose to the continuum modeling of composites made with such particles are reviewed (392 references).

Evaluating cost benefits from a heat health warning system in Adelaide, South Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the cost benefits of a heat health warning system (HHWS) in South Australia. METHODS: Information from key agencies was used to estimate the costs associated with the South Australian HHWS, including for three targeted public health interventions. Health cost savings were estimated based on previously reported HHWS-attributable reductions in hospital and emergency department (ED) admissions and ambulance callouts. RESULTS: The estimated cost for a one-week activation of the HHWS was AU$593,000. Activation costs compare favourably with the potential costs averted through HHWS-attributable reductions in hospital admissions and ambulance callouts with an estimated benefit-cost ratio of 2.0-3.3. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of estimated cost benefit, the South Australian HHWS is a no-regret public health response to heatwaves. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: As global temperatures rise there are likely to be significant health impacts from more frequent and intense heatwaves. This study indicates that HHWSs incorporating targeted supports for vulnerable groups are likely to be cost-effective public health interventions.

Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change.

This study aimed to estimate respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures and to estimate the future hospitalization costs in Australia. The associations between daily hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases and temperatures in Sydney and Perth over the study period of 2010-2016 were analyzed using distributed non-linear lag models. Future hospitalization costs were estimated based on three predicted climate change scenarios-RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The estimated respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures increased from 493.2 million Australian dollars (AUD) in the 2010s to more than AUD 700 million in 2050s in Sydney and from AUD 98.0 million to about AUD 150 million in Perth. The current cold attributable fraction in Sydney (23.7%) and Perth (11.2%) is estimated to decline by the middle of this century to (18.1-20.1%) and (5.1-6.6%), respectively, while the heat-attributable fraction for respiratory disease is expected to gradually increase from 2.6% up to 5.5% in Perth. Limitations of this study should be noted, such as lacking information on individual-level exposures, local air pollution levels, and other behavioral risks, which is common in such ecological studies. Nonetheless, this study found both cold and hot temperatures increased the overall hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases, although the attributable fractions varied. The largest contributor was cold temperatures. While respiratory disease hospitalization costs will increase in the future, climate change may result in a decrease in the cold attributable fraction and an increase in the heat attributable fraction, depending on the location.

Increasing impacts of temperature on hospital admissions, length of stay, and related healthcare costs in the context of climate change in Adelaide, South Australia.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies have investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on morbidity and health service use. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature-attributable cost burden. OBJECTIVES: This study examines the relationship of daily mean temperature with hospital admissions, length of hospital stay (LoS), and costs; and estimates the baseline temperature-attributable hospital admissions, and costs and in relation to warmer climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia. METHOD: A daily time series analysis using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) was used to explore exposure-response relationships and to estimate the aggregated burden of hospital admissions for conditions associated with temperatures (i.e. renal diseases, mental health, diabetes, ischaemic heart diseases and heat-related illnesses) as well as the associated LoS and costs, for the baseline period (2010-2015) and different future climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia. RESULTS: During the six-year baseline period, the overall temperature-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and associated costs were estimated to be 3915 cases (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 235, 7295), 99,766 days (95% eCI: 14,484, 168,457), and AU$159 million (95% eCI: 18.8, 269.0), respectively. A climate scenario consistent with RCP8.5 emissions, and including projected demographic change, is estimated to lead to increases in heat-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and costs of 2.2% (95% eCI: 0.5, 3.9), 8.4% (95% eCI: 1.1, 14.3), and 7.7% (95% eCI: 0.3, 13.3), respectively by mid-century. CONCLUSIONS: There is already a substantial temperature-attributable impact on hospital admissions, LoS, and costs which are estimated to increase due to climate change and an increasing aged population. Unless effective climate and public health interventions are put into action, the costs of treating temperature-related admissions will be high.

Characterising the impact of heatwaves on work-related injuries and illnesses in three Australian cities using a standard heatwave definition- Excess Heat Factor (EHF).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heatwaves have potential health and safety implications for many workers, and heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change. There is currently a lack of comparative evidence for the effects of heatwaves on workers' health and safety in different climates (sub-tropical and temperate). This study examined the relationship between heatwave severity (as defined by the Excess Heat Factor) and workers' compensation claims, to define impacts and identify workers at higher risk. METHODS: Workers' compensation claims data from Australian cities with temperate (Melbourne and Perth) and subtropical (Brisbane) climates for the years 2006-2016 were analysed in relation to heatwave severity categories (low and moderate/high severity) using time-stratified case-crossover models. RESULTS: Consistent impacts of heatwaves were observed in each city with either a protective or null effect during heatwaves of low-intensity while claims increased during moderate/high-severity heatwaves compared with non-heatwave days. The highest effect during moderate/high-severity heatwaves was in Brisbane (RR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.42-1.48). Vulnerable worker subgroups identified across the three cities included: males, workers aged under 34 years, apprentice/trainee workers, labour hire workers, those employed in medium and heavy strength occupations, and workers from outdoor and indoor industrial sectors. CONCLUSION: These findings show that work-related injuries and illnesses increase during moderate/high-severity heatwaves in both sub-tropical and temperate climates. Heatwave forecasts should signal the need for heightened heat awareness and preventive measures to minimise the risks to workers.

Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.

Limbal Stem Cell Preservation During Proton Beam Irradiation for Diffuse Iris Melanoma.

PURPOSE: To report the outcome after limbal stem cell preservation during proton beam irradiation for diffuse iris melanoma. METHODS: This is a single-case report of diffuse iris melanoma that was managed with proton beam radiation (53 Gy), wherein preemptively harvested superior and inferior limbal stem cells before radiation were replaced after irradiation. Regeneration of the palisades of Vogt and the limbal stem cells was documented by an optical coherence tomography-based imaging protocol. RESULTS: At 24 months after radiation therapy, best-corrected visual acuity was 20/25. The cornea was clear without evidence of limbal stem cell dysfunction. Clinical examination (including gonioscopy and ultrasound biomicroscopy [UBM]) was indicative of local control, and systemic surveillance was negative for metastatic disease. At posttransplant (21 months), there were more palisade structures visible in both anterior and posterior regions of the superior and inferior limbus, and the linear presentation of the inferior palisades appears to have regenerated. CONCLUSIONS: Diffuse iris melanoma can be managed successfully with proton beam radiation while preserving corneal limbal stem cells by harvesting them before radiation and then replacing them after irradiation. Regeneration of the palisades of Vogt could be documented by an optical coherence tomography-based imaging protocol.

Variation in Population Vulnerability to Heat Wave in Western Australia.

Heat waves (HWs) have killed more people in Australia than all other natural hazards combined. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of HWs and leads to a doubling of heat-related deaths over the next 40 years. Despite being a significant public health issue, HWs do not attract the same level of attention from researchers, policy makers, and emergency management agencies compared to other natural hazards. The purpose of the study was to identify risk factors that might lead to population vulnerability to HW in Western Australia (WA). HW vulnerability and resilience among the population of the state of WA were investigated by using time series analysis. The health impacts of HWs were assessed by comparing the associations between hospital emergency department (ED) presentations, hospital admissions and mortality data, and intensities of HW. Risk factors including age, gender, socioeconomic status (SES), remoteness, and geographical locations were examined to determine whether certain population groups were more at risk of adverse health impacts due to extreme heat. We found that hospital admissions due to heat-related conditions and kidney diseases, and overall ED attendances, were sensitive indicators of HW. Children aged 14 years or less and those aged 60 years or over were identified as the most vulnerable populations to HWs as shown in ED attendance data. Females had more ED attendances and hospital admissions due to kidney diseases; while males had more heat-related hospital admissions than females. There were significant dose-response relationships between HW intensity and SES, remoteness, and health service usage. The more disadvantaged and remotely located the population, the higher the health service usage during HWs. Our study also found that some population groups and locations were resilient to extreme heat. We produced a mapping tool, which indicated geographic areas throughout WA with various vulnerability and resilience levels to HW. The findings from this study will allow local government, community service organizations, and agencies in health, housing, and education to better identify and understand the degree of vulnerability to HW throughout the state, better target preparatory strategies, and allocate limited resources to those most in need.

Numerical modelling of orthogonal cutting: application to woodworking with a bench plane.

A numerical model for orthogonal cutting using the material point method was applied to woodcutting using a bench plane. The cutting process was modelled by accounting for surface energy associated with wood fracture toughness for crack growth parallel to the grain. By using damping to deal with dynamic crack propagation and modelling all contact between wood and the plane, simulations could initiate chip formation and proceed into steady-state chip propagation including chip curling. Once steady-state conditions were achieved, the cutting forces became constant and could be determined as a function of various simulation variables. The modelling details included a cutting tool, the tool's rake and grinding angles, a chip breaker, a base plate and a mouth opening between the base plate and the tool. The wood was modelled as an anisotropic elastic-plastic material. The simulations were verified by comparison to an analytical model and then used to conduct virtual experiments on wood planing. The virtual experiments showed interactions between depth of cut, chip breaker location and mouth opening. Additional simulations investigated the role of tool grinding angle, tool sharpness and friction.

Responding to heatwave intensity: Excess Heat Factor is a superior predictor of health service utilisation and a trigger for heatwave plans.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which measures of heatwave have the greatest predictive power for increases in health service utilisation in Perth, Western Australia. METHODS: Three heatwave formulas were compared, using Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson regression, against the number of presentations to emergency departments from all causes, and the number of inpatient admissions from heat-related causes. The period from July 2006 to June 2013 was included. A series of standardised thresholds were calculated to allow comparison between formulas, in the absence of a gold standard definition of heatwaves. RESULTS: Of the three heatwave formulas, Excess Heat Factor (EHF) produced the most clear dose-response relationship with Emergency Department presentations. The EHF generally predicted periods that resulted in a similar or higher rate of health service utilisation, as compared to the two other formulas, for the thresholds examined. CONCLUSIONS: The EHF formula, which considers a period of acclimatisation as well as the maximum and minimum temperature, best predicted periods of greatest health service demand. The strength of the dose-response relationship reinforces the validity of the measure as a predictor of hazardous heatwave intensity. IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that the EHF formula is well suited for use as a means of activating heatwave plans and identifies the required level of response to extreme heatwave events as well as moderate heatwave events that produce excess health service demand.

The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity.

Heatwaves represent a significant natural hazard in Australia, arguably more hazardous to human life than bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods. In the 2008/2009 summer, for example, many more lives were lost to heatwaves than to that summer's bushfires which were among the worst in the history of the Australian nation. For many years, these other forms of natural disaster have received much greater public attention than heatwaves, although there are some signs of change. We propose a new index, called the excess heat factor (EHF) for use in Australian heatwave monitoring and forecasting. The index is based on a three-day-averaged daily mean temperature (DMT), and is intended to capture heatwave intensity as it applies to human health outcomes, although its usefulness is likely to be much broader and with potential for international applicability. The index is described and placed in a climatological context in order to derive heatwave severity. Heatwave severity, as characterised by the climatological distribution of heatwave intensity, has been used to normalise the climatological variation in heatwave intensity range across Australia. This methodology was used to introduce a pilot national heatwave forecasting service for Australia during the 2013/2014 summer. Some results on the performance of the service are presented.

Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to predict the risk of heat related deaths.

Extremes of climate are not uncommon in Australia and heatwaves are not infrequent. Periods of high ambient temperature may result in clusters of heat related deaths, which may place strain on forensic facilities. This paper describes the formulation of the Excess Heat Factor using meteorological data to provide a means of predicting death resulting from periods of extreme heat stress. The 2009 South Australian heatwave had the highest ranked Excess Heat Factor in Adelaide's records. There were 58 heat related deaths, with the bulk of the heat related deaths following the peak Excess Heat Factor value (144 °C(2)). The 2008 heatwave had a lower peak Excess Heat Factor value (36 °C(2)); there was only one heat related death, which followed the peak in the Excess Heat Factor. It is proposed that calculation of the Excess Heat Factor from meteorological data could provide a means to predict and identify heat related deaths resulting from extreme weather conditions.