CAGI 5 splicing challenge: Improved exon skipping and intron retention predictions with MMSplice.

Pathogenic genetic variants often primarily affect splicing. However, it remains difficult to quantitatively predict whether and how genetic variants affect splicing. In 2018, the fifth edition of the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation proposed two splicing prediction challenges based on experimental perturbation assays: Vex-seq, assessing exon skipping, and MaPSy, assessing splicing efficiency. We developed a modular modeling framework, MMSplice, the performance of which was among the best on both challenges. Here we provide insights into the modeling assumptions of MMSplice and its individual modules. We furthermore illustrate how MMSplice can be applied in practice for individual genome interpretation, using the MMSplice VEP plugin and the Kipoi variant interpretation plugin, which are directly applicable to VCF files.

Assessing predictions of the impact of variants on splicing in CAGI5.

Precision medicine and sequence-based clinical diagnostics seek to predict disease risk or to identify causative variants from sequencing data. The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) is a community experiment consisting of genotype-phenotype prediction challenges; participants build models, undergo assessment, and share key findings. In the past, few CAGI challenges have addressed the impact of sequence variants on splicing. In CAGI5, two challenges (Vex-seq and MaPSY) involved prediction of the effect of variants, primarily single-nucleotide changes, on splicing. Although there are significant differences between these two challenges, both involved prediction of results from high-throughput exon inclusion assays. Here, we discuss the methods used to predict the impact of these variants on splicing, their performance, strengths, and weaknesses, and prospects for predicting the impact of sequence variation on splicing and disease phenotypes.

MMSplice: modular modeling improves the predictions of genetic variant effects on splicing.

Predicting the effects of genetic variants on splicing is highly relevant for human genetics. We describe the framework MMSplice (modular modeling of splicing) with which we built the winning model of the CAGI5 exon skipping prediction challenge. The MMSplice modules are neural networks scoring exon, intron, and splice sites, trained on distinct large-scale genomics datasets. These modules are combined to predict effects of variants on exon skipping, splice site choice, splicing efficiency, and pathogenicity, with matched or higher performance than state-of-the-art. Our models, available in the repository Kipoi, apply to variants including indels directly from VCF files.