Spatial quantile regression with application to high and low child birth weight in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Child low and high birth weight are important public health problems. Many studies have looked at factors of low and high birth weight using mean regression. This study aimed at using quantile regression to find out determinants of low and high birth weight. METHODS: Spatial quantile regression models at 0.05 and 0.95 percentiles of birth weight were fitted to 13,087 children birth weight in kilograms using Malawi demographic health survey data of 2010 study. Full Bayesian method by integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) was used to estimate the model. Second order random walk priors were assigned for mother age and antenatal visits for pregnancy while Gaussian markov random field prior was used for district of the child. RESULTS: Residual spatial patterns reveal areas in the southern region promoting high birth weight while areas in the central and northern region promote low birth weight. Most fixed effects findings are consistent with the literature. Richest family, normal mother body mass index (BMI), mother over weight (BMI > 25 kg/m2), birth order 2-3, mother secondary education and height (≥150 cm) negate low birth weight while weight 45-70 kg promote low birth weight. Birth order category 6+, mother height (≥150 cm) and poor wealth quintile, promote high birth weight, while richer and richest wealth quintiles and education categories: primary, secondary, and higher, and mother overweight (BMI > 25 kg/m2) reduce high birth weight. Antenatal visits for pregnancy reduce both low and high birth weight. CONCLUSION: Strategies to reduce low and high birth weight should simultaneously address mother education, weight gain during pregnancy and poverty while targeting areas increasing low and high birth weight.

Bayesian random effects modelling with application to childhood anaemia in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies in Malawi on child anaemia have neglected the community spatial effect to childhood anaemia. Neglecting the community spatial effect in the model ignores the influence of unobserved or unmeasured contextual variables, and at the same time the resultant model may under estimate model parameter standard errors which can result in erroneous significance of covariates. We aimed at investigating risk factors of childhood anaemia in Malawi with focus on geographical spatial effect. METHODS: We adopted a Bayesian random effect model for child anaemia with district as spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic healthy survey data. We fitted the binary logistic model for the two categories outcome (anaemia (Hb < 11), and no anaemia (Hb ≥ 11)). Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional spline. RESULTS: Residual spatial patterns reveal Nsanje, Chikhwawa, Salima, Nkhota-kota, Mangochi and Machinga increasing the risk of childhood anaemia. Karonga, Chitipa, Rumphi, Mzimba, Ntchisi, and Chiradzulu reduce the risk of childhood anaemia. Known determinants such as maternal anaemia, child stunting, and child fever, have a positive effect on child anaemia. Furthermore childhood anaemia decreases with child age. It also decreases with wealth index. There is a U relationship between child anaemia and mother age. CONCLUSION: Strategies in childhood anaemia control should be tailored to local conditions, taking into account the specific etiology and prevalence of anaemia.

Identification of common spatial and temporal trends in the epidemiology of cattle bovine tuberculosis and human extrapulmonary and drug-resistant tuberculosis in Malawi.

Background: Identification of common spatial disease trends between cattle bovine tuberculosis (BTB) and human extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) and drug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB) can support integrated disease control and monitoring programmes. We employed the recently developed multivariate disease mapping methods to examine whether the diseases exhibited any spatial correlation. Methods: A retrospective study of cattle BTB and human EPTB and DRTB cases from 2018 to 2022 was conducted. Bivariate shared spatiotemporal components models were fitted to a) cattle BTB and human EPTB and b) cattle BTB and human DRTB at the district level in Malawi, with cattle density, human density and climatic variables as independent variables. Results: Disease specific spatial effects were higher in the southern half of the country, while the shared spatial effects were more dominant in both the south and western parts of the country. The shared temporal effects showed constant trends, while disease specific temporal effects showed an increasing pattern for cattle BTB and a constant pattern for human EPTB and DRTB. The predicted disease incidence pattern for all forms of TB in the period without data showed a constant pattern over the years. Cattle density was positively associated with cattle BTB ( ß : 0.022; 95% Credible Interval (CI): 0.004, 0.042). Human density was positively associated with human EPTB ( ß : 0.005; 95% CI: 0.001, 0.009). Conclusion: Cattle BTB and human EPTB and DRTB have a common spatial pattern in the west and southern parts of Malawi. Integrated interventions targeting high-density areas for cattle and human may have positive impacts on cattle BTB and human EPTB and DRTB.

Comparing parametric and Cox regression models using HIV/AIDS survival data from a retrospective study in Ntcheu district in Malawi.

Background: The study was designed to compare parametric and Cox regression survival models. It was also aimed at determining risk factors of death due to HIV/AIDS. Design and methods: The models were fitted to time from ART initiation to death due to HIV/AIDS while using data that was collected from 6670 patients records who registered for ART from 2007 to 2012 at Ntcheu district hospital in Malawi. The best fitting model was used to determine risk factors of death due to HIV/AIDS. Results: The exponential and Gompertz model competed very well with the Cox regression. Patients in WHO clinical stage 4 (HR = 1.69, p-value <0.001) and males (HR = 1.74, p-value <0.001) were associated with increased hazard of death than those in WHO clinical stage 3 and females. Patients with high body mass index (HR = 0.82, p-value <0.001) were associated with lower hazard of death than those with lower body mass index. Conclusions: Parametric models may perform as good as the Cox regression and the plausibility of all models needs to be investigated to use the correct model for accurate inferences. Furthermore, strategies to limit deaths due to HIV/AIDS should initiate ART early before WHO clinical stage 4 and males should receive special attention. The strategies should also aim at improving the body mass index of patients.

Estimating the national and regional prevalence of drinking or eating more than usual during childhood diarrhea in Malawi using the bivariate sample selection copula regression.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of prevalence of feeding practices during diarrhea using conventional imputation methods may be biased as these methods apply to observed factors and in this study, feeding practice status was unobserved for those without diarrhea. The study aimed at re-estimating the prevalence of feeding practices using the bivariate sample selection model. METHODS: The study used 2015-2016 Malawi demographic health survey (MDHS) data which had 16,246 children records who had diarrhea or not. A bivariate Joe copula regression model with 90 degrees rotation was fitted to either drinking or eating more, with diarrhea as a sample selection outcome in the bivariate models. The prevalence of drinking more than usual and prevalence of eating more than usual were then estimated based on the fitted bivariate model. These prevalences were then compared to the prevalences estimated using the conventional imputation method. RESULTS: There was a substantial increase in the re-estimated national prevalence of drinking more fluids (40.0%, 95% CI [31.7-50.5]) or prevalence of eating more food (20.46%, 95% CI [9.87-38.55]) using the bivariate model as compared to the prevalences estimated by the conventional imputation method, that is, (28.9%, 95% CI [27.0-30.7]) and (13.1%, 95% CI [12.0-15.0]) respectively. The maps of the regional prevalences showed similar results where the prevalences estimated by the bivariate model were relatively higher than those estimated by the standard imputation method. The presence of diarrhea was somehow weakly negatively correlated with either drinking more fluids or eating more food. CONCLUSION: The estimation of prevalence of drinking more fluids or eating more food during diarrhea should use bivariate modelling to model sample selection variable so as to minimize bias. The observed negative correlation between diarrhea presence and feeding practices implies that mothers should be encouraged to let their children drink more fluids or eat more food during diarrhea episode to avoid dehydration and malnutrition.

Spatial temporal distribution of COVID-19 risk during the early phase of the pandemic in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been one of the greatest challenges the world has faced since the second world war. This study aimed at investigating the distribution of COVID-19 in both space and time in Malawi. METHODS: The study used publicly available data of COVID-19 cases for the period from 2 April 2020 to 28 October 2020. Semiparametric spatial temporal models were fitted to the number of monthly confirmed cases as an outcome data, with time and district as independent variables, where district was the spatial unit, while accounting for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: The study found significant effects of location and time, with the two interacting. The spatial distribution of COVID-19 risk showed major cities being at greater risk than rural areas. Over time, the COVID-19 risk was increasing then decreasing in most districts with the rural districts being consistently at lower risk. High proportion of elderly people was positively associated with COVID-19 risk (ß = 1.272, 95% CI [0.171, 2.370]) than low proportion of elderly people. There was negative association between poverty incidence and COVID-19 risk (ß = -0.100, 95% CI [-0.136, -0.065]). CONCLUSION: Future or present strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19 should target major cities and the focus should be on time periods that had shown high risk. Furthermore, the focus should be on elderly and rich people.

Climate and location as determinants of childhood stunting, wasting, and overweight: An application of semiparametric multivariate probit model.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate and location while using the multivariate model of malnutrition. METHODS: The joint semiparametric model of stunting, wasting, and overweight was fitted to 2015 child Malawi demographic health survey data with 5149 records. The MDHS was a cross-sectional study. The smooth functions for the non-parametric terms were the regression splines and the effect of location was smoothed by the Markov random field (MRF). RESULTS: Rainfall had a positive effect on stunting (ß = 0.076, P = 0.044) and overweight (ß = 0.854, P = 0.039). Mean temperature (ß = 1.220, P = 0.031) and distance to water body (ß = 0.009, P = 0.049) also had a positive effect on wasting. Increased length of rainy season was associated with reduced overweight (ß = -0.163, P = 0.042). Location was not a significant predictor of all malnutrition indicators, although there was observable spatial variation regarding overweight and wasting. There was significant positive correlation between stunting and overweight (ρ = 0.234; 95% confidence interval, 0.135-0.324). The findings on socioeconomic determinants are consistent with the literature. CONCLUSION: Nutrition interventions may target hot spot areas that have shown increased risk for overweight and wasting. The strategies to minimize malnutrition should focus on consequences of climate change like high rainfall, length of season, and temperature.

Analysis on the Association Among Stunting, Wasting and Underweight in Malawi: An Application of a Log-Linear Model for the Three-Way Table.

Childhood undernutrition is an important public health problem. Many studies have investigated the factors of childhood undernutrition, but not the association between the undernutrition indicators. This study aimed at investigating the association between the childhood undernutrition indicators. A loglinear model of cell counts of a three way table of stunting, wasting, and underweight was fitted based on the 2010 Malawi demographic health survey data. Interaction terms in the model depicted deviations from independence. A multiple correspondence analysis of undernutrition indicators was also plotted to have a visual impression of association of the undernutrition variables. A loglinear model showed that underweight was associated with both stunting (P<0.001), and wasting (P<0.001). There was no association between stunting and wasting (P=1). Furthermore there was no three way association of stunting, wasting and underweight (P=1). Lack of three way interaction of stunting, wasting and underweight means that childhood undernutrition multidimensional nature is still valid, and no each indicator can represent the other.

Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Malawi: Bayesian Geo-Additive Modelling.

Studies on factors of low birth weight in Malawi have neglected the flexible approach of using smooth functions for some covariates in models. Such flexible approach reveals detailed relationship of covariates with the response. The study aimed at investigating risk factors of low birth weight in Malawi by assuming a flexible approach for continuous covariates and geographical random effect. A Bayesian geo-additive model for birth weight in kilograms and size of the child at birth (less than average or average and higher) with district as a spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic and health survey data was adopted. A Gaussian model for birth weight in kilograms and a binary logistic model for the binary outcome (size of child at birth) were fitted. Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized (p) splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional p-spline. The study found that child birth order, mother weight and height are significant predictors of birth weight. Secondary education for mother, birth order categories 2-3 and 4-5, wealth index of richer family and mother height were significant predictors of child size at birth. The area associated with low birth weight was Chitipa and areas with increased risk to less than average size at birth were Chitipa and Mchinji. The study found support for the flexible modelling of some covariates that clearly have nonlinear influences. Nevertheless there is no strong support for inclusion of geographical spatial analysis. The spatial patterns though point to the influence of omitted variables with some spatial structure or possibly epidemiological processes that account for this spatial structure and the maps generated could be used for targeting development efforts at a glance.