Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries.

Sustainable Development Goal 2.2-to end malnutrition by 2030-includes the elimination of child wasting, defined as a weight-for-length z-score that is more than two standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization standards for child growth1. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence-key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6-59 months.

Early-childhood linear growth faltering in low- and middle-income countries.

Globally, 149 million children under 5 years of age are estimated to be stunted (length more than 2 standard deviations below international growth standards)1,2. Stunting, a form of linear growth faltering, increases the risk of illness, impaired cognitive development and mortality. Global stunting estimates rely on cross-sectional surveys, which cannot provide direct information about the timing of onset or persistence of growth faltering-a key consideration for defining critical windows to deliver preventive interventions. Here we completed a pooled analysis of longitudinal studies in low- and middle-income countries (n = 32 cohorts, 52,640 children, ages 0-24 months), allowing us to identify the typical age of onset of linear growth faltering and to investigate recurrent faltering in early life. The highest incidence of stunting onset occurred from birth to the age of 3 months, with substantially higher stunting at birth in South Asia. From 0 to 15 months, stunting reversal was rare; children who reversed their stunting status frequently relapsed, and relapse rates were substantially higher among children born stunted. Early onset and low reversal rates suggest that improving children's linear growth will require life course interventions for women of childbearing age and a greater emphasis on interventions for children under 6 months of age.

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings.

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions.

Crowdsourcing biomedical research: leveraging communities as innovation engines.

The generation of large-scale biomedical data is creating unprecedented opportunities for basic and translational science. Typically, the data producers perform initial analyses, but it is very likely that the most informative methods may reside with other groups. Crowdsourcing the analysis of complex and massive data has emerged as a framework to find robust methodologies. When the crowdsourcing is done in the form of collaborative scientific competitions, known as Challenges, the validation of the methods is inherently addressed. Challenges also encourage open innovation, create collaborative communities to solve diverse and important biomedical problems, and foster the creation and dissemination of well-curated data repositories.

Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense.

Germline contamination and leakage in whole genome somatic single nucleotide variant detection.

BACKGROUND: The clinical sequencing of cancer genomes to personalize therapy is becoming routine across the world. However, concerns over patient re-identification from these data lead to questions about how tightly access should be controlled. It is not thought to be possible to re-identify patients from somatic variant data. However, somatic variant detection pipelines can mistakenly identify germline variants as somatic ones, a process called "germline leakage". The rate of germline leakage across different somatic variant detection pipelines is not well-understood, and it is uncertain whether or not somatic variant calls should be considered re-identifiable. To fill this gap, we quantified germline leakage across 259 sets of whole-genome somatic single nucleotide variant (SNVs) predictions made by 21 teams as part of the ICGC-TCGA DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling Challenge. RESULTS: The median somatic SNV prediction set contained 4325 somatic SNVs and leaked one germline polymorphism. The level of germline leakage was inversely correlated with somatic SNV prediction accuracy and positively correlated with the amount of infiltrating normal cells. The specific germline variants leaked differed by tumour and algorithm. To aid in quantitation and correction of leakage, we created a tool, called GermlineFilter, for use in public-facing somatic SNV databases. CONCLUSIONS: The potential for patient re-identification from leaked germline variants in somatic SNV predictions has led to divergent open data access policies, based on different assessments of the risks. Indeed, a single, well-publicized re-identification event could reshape public perceptions of the values of genomic data sharing. We find that modern somatic SNV prediction pipelines have low germline-leakage rates, which can be further reduced, especially for cloud-sharing, using pre-filtering software.

Combining tumor genome simulation with crowdsourcing to benchmark somatic single-nucleotide-variant detection.

The detection of somatic mutations from cancer genome sequences is key to understanding the genetic basis of disease progression, patient survival and response to therapy. Benchmarking is needed for tool assessment and improvement but is complicated by a lack of gold standards, by extensive resource requirements and by difficulties in sharing personal genomic information. To resolve these issues, we launched the ICGC-TCGA DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling Challenge, a crowdsourced benchmark of somatic mutation detection algorithms. Here we report the BAMSurgeon tool for simulating cancer genomes and the results of 248 analyses of three in silico tumors created with it. Different algorithms exhibit characteristic error profiles, and, intriguingly, false positives show a trinucleotide profile very similar to one found in human tumors. Although the three simulated tumors differ in sequence contamination (deviation from normal cell sequence) and in subclonality, an ensemble of pipelines outperforms the best individual pipeline in all cases. BAMSurgeon is available at https://github.com/adamewing/bamsurgeon/.

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. METHODS: Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. FINDINGS: 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39-4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85-3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified predictive clinical variables and revealed aspartate aminotransferase as an important, albeit previously under-reported, prognostic biomarker. INTERPRETATION: Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer. FUNDING: Sanofi US Services, Project Data Sphere.

A Crowdsourcing Approach to Developing and Assessing Prediction Algorithms for AML Prognosis.

Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) is a fatal hematological cancer. The genetic abnormalities underlying AML are extremely heterogeneous among patients, making prognosis and treatment selection very difficult. While clinical proteomics data has the potential to improve prognosis accuracy, thus far, the quantitative means to do so have yet to be developed. Here we report the results and insights gained from the DREAM 9 Acute Myeloid Prediction Outcome Prediction Challenge (AML-OPC), a crowdsourcing effort designed to promote the development of quantitative methods for AML prognosis prediction. We identify the most accurate and robust models in predicting patient response to therapy, remission duration, and overall survival. We further investigate patient response to therapy, a clinically actionable prediction, and find that patients that are classified as resistant to therapy are harder to predict than responsive patients across the 31 models submitted to the challenge. The top two performing models, which held a high sensitivity to these patients, substantially utilized the proteomics data to make predictions. Using these models, we also identify which signaling proteins were useful in predicting patient therapeutic response.

Optimized clinical performance of growth hormone with an expanded genetic code.

The ribosomal incorporation of nonnative amino acids into polypeptides in living cells provides the opportunity to endow therapeutic proteins with unique pharmacological properties. We report here the first clinical study of a biosynthetic protein produced using an expanded genetic code. Incorporation of p-acetylphenylalanine (pAcF) at distinct locations in human growth hormone (hGH) allowed site-specific conjugation with polyethylene glycol (PEG) to produce homogeneous hGH variants. A mono-PEGylated mutant hGH modified at residue 35 demonstrated favorable pharmacodynamic properties in GH-deficient rats. Clinical studies in GH-deficient adults demonstrated efficacy and safety comparable to native human growth hormone therapy but with increased potency and reduced injection frequency. This example illustrates the utility of nonnative amino acids to optimize protein therapeutics in an analogous fashion to the use of medicinal chemistry to optimize conventional natural products, low molecular weight drugs, and peptides.

Participatory development of a target policy profile to support soil-transmitted helminth elimination.

Introduction: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are parasitic worms that infect nearly a quarter of the world's population, particularly those living in communities without access to adequate water, sanitation, and housing. Emerging evidence suggests that it may be possible to interrupt transmission of STH by deworming individuals of all ages via community-wide MDA (cMDA), as opposed to only treating children and other focal populations. Transitioning from a policy of STH control to STH elimination in targeted areas would require a fundamental shift in STH policy and programming. This policy change would require updated guidance to support countries as they adapt their current approaches for STH surveillance, supply chain management, community mobilization, and core programmatic activities in pursuit of STH elimination. There is an opportunity to engage with key stakeholders, such as program implementers and implementation partners, to understand what evidence they need to confidently adopt a new policy guideline and to deliver guideline adherent management at scale. Methods: We aimed to engage with STH stakeholders to develop a Target Policy Profile (TPoP), a single document that describes optimal characteristics and evidence requirements that STH stakeholders prioritized in future potential STH transmission interruption efforts. Steps in TPoP development included a scoping review and key informant interviews (KIIs), which were used to design a two-stage Delphi technique to identify and verify TPoP components. Results: The scoping review resulted in 25 articles, and 8 experts participated in KII's. Twenty respondents completed the first Delphi survey and 10 respondents completed the second. This systematic effort resulted in a net of 3 key information domains (background/context, clinical considerations, and implementation considerations) encompassing 24 evidence categories (examples include evidence regarding safety and adverse events, implementation feasibility, or evidence dissemination). For each evidence category, STH stakeholders reviewed, endorsed, or revised a range of options for how the evidence could be presented. Discussion: This information can be used by guideline committees or global policy makers prior to convening guideline advisory groups. The TPoP tool may also speed the process of stakeholder consensus building around guidelines, accelerating progress towards implementing evidence-based policy at scale.

Action for Increasing Diversity, Market Access, and Capacity in Oncology Registration Trials-Is Africa the Answer? Report From a Satellite Session of the Accelerating Anti-Cancer Agent Development and Validation Workshop.

Patients of African ancestry are not well-represented in cancer clinical trials despite bearing a disproportionate share of mortality both in United States and Africa. We describe key stakeholder perspectives and priorities related to bringing early-stage cancer clinical trials to Africa and outline essential action steps. Increasing Diversity, Market Access, and Capacity in Oncology Registration Trials-Is Africa the Answer? satellite session was organized at 2021 Accelerating Anti-Cancer Agent Development and Validation Workshop. Panelists included representatives of African Organization for Research and Training in Cancer, Uganda Cancer Institute, Uganda Women's Cancer Support Organization, BIO Ventures for Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the US Food and Drug Administration, Nigeria's National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control, Bayer, and Genentech, with moderators from ASCO and American Cancer Society. Key discussion themes and resulting action steps were agreed upon by all participants. Panelists agreed that increasing diversity in cancer clinical trials by including African patients is key to ensuring novel drugs are safe and effective across populations. They underscored the importance of equity in clinical trial access for patients in Africa. Panelists discussed their values related to access and barriers to opening clinical trials in Africa and described innovative solutions from their work aimed at overcoming these obstacles. Multisectoral collaboration efforts that allow leveraging of limited resources and result in sustainable capacity building and mutually beneficial long-term partnerships were discussed as key to outlined action steps. The panel discussion resulted in valuable insights about key stakeholder values and priorities related to bringing early-stage clinical trials to Africa, as well as specific actions for each stakeholder group.

A community challenge to evaluate RNA-seq, fusion detection, and isoform quantification methods for cancer discovery.

The accurate identification and quantitation of RNA isoforms present in the cancer transcriptome is key for analyses ranging from the inference of the impacts of somatic variants to pathway analysis to biomarker development and subtype discovery. The ICGC-TCGA DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling in RNA (SMC-RNA) challenge was a crowd-sourced effort to benchmark methods for RNA isoform quantification and fusion detection from bulk cancer RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data. It concluded in 2018 with a comparison of 77 fusion detection entries and 65 isoform quantification entries on 51 synthetic tumors and 32 cell lines with spiked-in fusion constructs. We report the entries used to build this benchmark, the leaderboard results, and the experimental features associated with the accurate prediction of RNA species. This challenge required submissions to be in the form of containerized workflows, meaning each of the entries described is easily reusable through CWL and Docker containers at https://github.com/SMC-RNA-challenge. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

Clinical trials in the pandemic age: What is fit for purpose?

It is critical to ensure that COVID-19 studies provide clear and timely answers to the scientific questions that will guide us to scalable solutions for all global regions. Significant challenges in operationalizing trials include public policies for managing the pandemic, public health and clinical capacity, travel and migration, and availability of tests and infrastructure. These factors lead to spikes and troughs in patient count by location, disrupting the ability to predict when or if a trial will reach recruitment goals. The focus must also be on understanding how to provide equitable access to these interventions ensuring that interventions reach those who need them the most, be it patients in low resource settings or vulnerable groups.  We introduce a website to be used by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and other funders of the COVID Therapeutics Accelerator that accept proposals for future clinical research. The portal enables evaluations of clinical study applications that focus on study qualities most likely to lead to informative outcomes and completed studies.

Evaluation of Combined Artificial Intelligence and Radiologist Assessment to Interpret Screening Mammograms.

Importance: Mammography screening currently relies on subjective human interpretation. Artificial intelligence (AI) advances could be used to increase mammography screening accuracy by reducing missed cancers and false positives. Objective: To evaluate whether AI can overcome human mammography interpretation limitations with a rigorous, unbiased evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic accuracy study conducted between September 2016 and November 2017, an international, crowdsourced challenge was hosted to foster AI algorithm development focused on interpreting screening mammography. More than 1100 participants comprising 126 teams from 44 countries participated. Analysis began November 18, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measurements: Algorithms used images alone (challenge 1) or combined images, previous examinations (if available), and clinical and demographic risk factor data (challenge 2) and output a score that translated to cancer yes/no within 12 months. Algorithm accuracy for breast cancer detection was evaluated using area under the curve and algorithm specificity compared with radiologists' specificity with radiologists' sensitivity set at 85.9% (United States) and 83.9% (Sweden). An ensemble method aggregating top-performing AI algorithms and radiologists' recall assessment was developed and evaluated. Results: Overall, 144 231 screening mammograms from 85 580 US women (952 cancer positive ≤12 months from screening) were used for algorithm training and validation. A second independent validation cohort included 166 578 examinations from 68 008 Swedish women (780 cancer positive). The top-performing algorithm achieved an area under the curve of 0.858 (United States) and 0.903 (Sweden) and 66.2% (United States) and 81.2% (Sweden) specificity at the radiologists' sensitivity, lower than community-practice radiologists' specificity of 90.5% (United States) and 98.5% (Sweden). Combining top-performing algorithms and US radiologist assessments resulted in a higher area under the curve of 0.942 and achieved a significantly improved specificity (92.0%) at the same sensitivity. Conclusions and Relevance: While no single AI algorithm outperformed radiologists, an ensemble of AI algorithms combined with radiologist assessment in a single-reader screening environment improved overall accuracy. This study underscores the potential of using machine learning methods for enhancing mammography screening interpretation.

Stratification of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients: a crowdsourcing approach.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease where substantial heterogeneity in clinical presentation urgently requires a better stratification of patients for the development of drug trials and clinical care. In this study we explored stratification through a crowdsourcing approach, the DREAM Prize4Life ALS Stratification Challenge. Using data from >10,000 patients from ALS clinical trials and 1479 patients from community-based patient registers, more than 30 teams developed new approaches for machine learning and clustering, outperforming the best current predictions of disease outcome. We propose a new method to integrate and analyze patient clusters across methods, showing a clear pattern of consistent and clinically relevant sub-groups of patients that also enabled the reliable classification of new patients. Our analyses reveal novel insights in ALS and describe for the first time the potential of a crowdsourcing to uncover hidden patient sub-populations, and to accelerate disease understanding and therapeutic development.