Characteristics of water quality mitigation measures that lead to greater adoption on farms.

Globally, agriculture is a significant pressure on water quality. While nutrient and sediment loss from agricultural land to water can be scientifically complex, mitigation measures primarily focus on reducing farm nutrient stocks or blocking loss pathways. The appropriateness of mitigation measures is dependent on the identification of specific context-related risks on individual farms. However, advisers also need to consider the likelihood of uptake of measures by farmers. Past research has looked at uptake of particular mitigation measures or a small range of measures. This research expands the literature with an analysis of uptake of a broad and diverse range of measures. Farm characteristics, farmer norms, knowledge required and costs (direct and indirect) associated with individual mitigation measures are investigated to identify factors that could influence greater adoption. Results show that alignment to farmer norms and lower specific costs were associated with high adoption rates. These results have implications for advisers in relation to the selection of measures most likely to be adopted by farmers, and also for policy-makers in relation to the need to incentivise the adoption of high-cost measures.

The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis.

We evaluate the COVID-19 resilience of a Continental welfare regime by nowcasting the implications of the shock and its associated policy responses on the distribution of household incomes over the whole of 2020. Our approach relies on a dynamic microsimulation modelling that combines a household income generation model estimated on the latest EU-SILC wave with novel nowcasting techniques to calibrate the simulations using external macro controls which reflect the macroeconomic climate during the crisis. We focus on Luxembourg, a country that introduced minor tweaks to the existing tax-benefit system, which has a strong social insurance focus that gave certainty during the crisis. We find the system was well-equipped ahead of the crisis to cushion household incomes against job losses. The income-support policy changes were effective in cushioning household incomes and mitigating an increase in income inequality, allowing average household disposable income and inequality levels to bounce back to pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of 2020. The share of labour incomes dropped, but was compensated by an increase in benefits, reflecting the cushioning effect of the transfer system. Overall market incomes dropped and became more unequal. Their disequalizing evolution was matched by an increase in redistribution, driven by an increase in the generosity of benefits and larger access to benefits. The nowcasting model is a "near" real-time analysis and decision support tool to monitor the recovery, scalable to other countries with high applicability for policymakers. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at doi:10.1007/s10888-021-09524-4.

Defining national biogenic methane targets: Implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives.

Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) modelled distinctly from long-lived GHGs such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide to establish global emission budgets for climate stabilisation. The Paris Agreement requires a 24-47% reduction in global biogenic methane emissions by 2050. Separate treatment of methane in national climate policies will necessitate consideration of how global emission budgets compatible with climate stabilisation can be downscaled to national targets, but implications of different downscaling rules for national food production and climate neutrality objectives are poorly understood. This study addresses that knowledge gap by examining four methods to determine national methane quotas, and two methods of GHG aggregation (GWP100 and GWP*) across four countries with contrasting agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors and socio-economic contexts (Brazil, France, India and Ireland). Implications for production of methane-intensive food (milk, meat, eggs and rice) in 2050 and national AFOLU climate neutrality targets are explored. It is assumed that methane quotas are always filled by food production where sufficient land is available. Global methane budgets for 1.5 °C scenarios are downscaled to national quotas based on: grand-parenting (equal percentage reductions across countries); equity (equal per capita emissions); ability (emission reductions proportionate to GDP); animal protein security (emissions proportionate to animal protein production in 2010). The choice of allocation method changes national methane quotas by a factor of between 1.7 (India) and 6.7 (Ireland). Despite projected reductions in emission-intensities, livestock production would need to decrease across all countries except India to comply with quotas under all but the most optimistic sustainable intensification scenarios. The extent of potential afforestation on land spared from livestock production is decisive in achieving climate neutrality. Brazil and Ireland could maintain some degree of milk and beef export whilst achieving territorial climate neutrality, but scenarios that comply with climate neutrality in India produce only circa 30% of national calorie and protein requirements via rice and livestock. The downscaling of global methane budgets into national policy targets in an equitable and internationally acceptable manner will require simultaneous consideration of the interconnected priorities of food security and (land banks available for) carbon offsetting.

More than two decades of Agri-Environment schemes: Has the profile of participating farms changed?

The agri-food sector is under increased pressure from consumers to improve on the sustainability of production processes. Policies that incentivise farmers to improve environmental performance, such as agri-environment schemes (AES), are increasingly important. Understanding the choice to participate in these programmes aids policymakers in designing schemes that meet participation and environmental goals. While a number of studies have investigated the decision using cross-sectional data on one or multiple locations, very few have used longitudinal data to investigate the impact of institutional changes over time. Using Ireland as a case study, this paper uses a nationally representative panel of data spanning 23 years to model the impact of scheme and policy changes on the type of farms participating in AES. This paper argues that environmental issues surrounding intensive farms (such as the loss of nutrients and sediment to water and greenhouse gas emissions) are not being optimally addressed in scheme design and further development of such programmes is needed to reduce negative environmental impacts.

Effects of Vocational Re-training on Employment Outcomes Among Persons with Disabilities in Germany: A Quasi-Experiment.

Purpose To investigate how completing vocational re-training influenced income and employment days of working-age people with disabilities in the first 8 years after program admission. The investigation also included the influence of vocational re-training on the likelihood of receiving an earnings incapacity pension and on social security benefit receipt. Methods This retrospective cohort study with 8 years follow up was based on data from 2399 individuals who had completed either a 1-year vocational re-training program (n = 278), or a 2-year vocational re-training program (n = 1754) or who were admitted into re-training but never completed the program (n = 367). A propensity score-based method was used to account for observed differences and establish comparability between program graduates and program dropouts. Changes in outcomes were examined using the inverse probability-weighted regression adjustment method. Results After controlling for other factors, over the 8 years after program admission, graduates of 1-year re-training, on average, were employed for an additional 405 days, 95% CI [249 days, 561 days], and had earned €24,260 more than without completed re-training, 95% CI [€12,805, €35,715]. Two-year program completers, on average, were employed for 441 additional days, 95% CI [349 days, 534 days], and had earned €35,972 more than without completed re-training, 95% CI [€27,743, €44,202]. The programs also significantly reduced the number of days on social-security and unemployment benefits and lowered the likelihood of an earnings incapacity pension. Conclusion Policies to promote the labor market re-integration of persons with disabilities should consider that vocational re-training may be an effective tool for sustainably improving work participation outcomes.

Afforestation: Replacing livestock emissions with carbon sequestration.

In Ireland, agriculture accounts for 33% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Ireland faces significant challenges in terms of emissions reduction and is well off course in terms of meeting binding European Union targets. Flexibility mechanisms will allow Ireland to offset 5.6% of its commitment via sequestration in biomass and soils and land use change. Agricultural emissions in Ireland are largely driven by livestock production. As such, the purpose of this research is to estimate the net GHG emission benefit resulting from a land use change with forest replacing livestock systems (dairy, beef cattle and sheep). We estimate the total carbon sequestration in biomass and harvested wood products, along with the total emissions avoided from each livestock system on a per hectare basis. In addition, the paper compares the social cost of carbon to the average income per hectare of each livestock system. Finally, a hypothetical national planting scenario is modelled using plausible planting rates. Results indicate that the greatest carbon benefit is achieved when forest replaces dairy production. This is due to high emissions per hectare from dairy systems, and greater sequestration potential in higher-yielding forests planted on better quality soils associated with dairy production. The inclusion of harvested wood products in subsequent rotations has the potential to enhance GHG mitigation and offset terrestrial carbon loss. A hypothetical national planting scenario, afforesting 100,000 ha substituting dairy, beef cattle and sheep livestock systems could abate 13.91 Mt CO2e after 10 years, and 150.14 Mt CO2e (unthinned plantations) or 125.89 Mt CO2e (thinned plantations) over the course of the rotation. These results highlight the critical role for forest land use change in meeting the urgent need to tackle rising agricultural emissions.

Spatial and temporal variability in costs and effectiveness in phosphorus loss mitigation at farm scale: A scenario analysis.

Current policy instruments under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) to mitigate phosphorus (P) loss require that P use on farms is managed through regulation of farm gate P balances. Regulation at farm scale does not account for spatial variability in nutrient use and soil fertility at field scale, affecting the costs and effectiveness of farm gate measures. This study simulated the implementation of a P loss mitigation measure coupled with improving soil fertility so that farm productivity would not be compromised. The measure was simulated at field scale and the costs and effectiveness assessed at farm scale. Effectiveness was expressed as the time taken for excessive soil P levels to decline to levels that matched off-takes and this varied temporally and spatially within and between farms ranging from 1 to 8 years. Sub-optimum soil fertility was corrected on all fields across both farms, with applications of other soil nutrients and lime to protect productivity. An increase in costs ranging from 1.5 to 116% was predicted in the first two years of the measure on both farms after-which savings of 15-31% were predicted for each subsequent year until the measure was effective in year 9. Despite initial cost increase, there was no statistically significant difference in costs over the time taken for the measure to be effective, when compared to baseline costs. Successful implementation of measures should consider the impact on farm costs and time taken for measures to environmentally effective. Adoption of measures could improve if demonstrating to farmers that costs will not vary significantly from current practice and in time may results in savings if measures are paired with correcting soil fertility and increasing yields. This 'win-win' approach could be used into the future to ensure successful implementation and uptake of measures within the farming community.

Which factors influence farmers' intentions to adopt nutrient management planning?

The adoption of nutrient management practices can lead to win-win outcomes in terms of both improving productivity and reducing the environmental impact of farming. However, adoption of key practices remains below expectations globally. Few studies specifically focus on the adoption of nutrient management practices and the majority overlook psychological factors in their analysis. This study examines the factors which influence Irish farmers' intention to apply fertiliser on the basis of soil test results. An expanded version of the theory of planned behaviour is used as a framework for analysis. The influence of policy is also accounted for by this study which requires certain farmers in Ireland to adopt soil testing on a mandatory basis. The results for the national sample (n = 1009) show that attitudes, subjective norms (social pressure), perceived behavioural control (ease/difficulty) and perceived resources are significant and positively associated with farmers' intentions. In terms of the voluntary sample (n = 587), only attitude, perceived behavioural control and perceived resources are significantly and positively associated with farmers' intentions. Whereas, for the mandatory sample (n = 422), subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and perceived resources are significantly and correlated in a positive direction with intentions. A number of farm and farmer characteristics are also significantly associated with intentions. Policy recommendations are made based on these results.

Economic Assessment of Waterborne Outbreak of Cryptosporidiosis.

In 2007, a waterborne outbreak of Cryptosporidium hominis infection occurred in western Ireland, resulting in 242 laboratory-confirmed cases and an uncertain number of unconfirmed cases. A boil water notice was in place for 158 days that affected 120,432 persons residing in the area, businesses, visitors, and commuters. This outbreak represented the largest outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Ireland. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost of this outbreak. We adopted a societal perspective in estimating costs associated with the outbreak. Economic cost estimated was based on totaling direct and indirect costs incurred by public and private agencies. The cost of the outbreak was estimated based on 2007 figures. We estimate that the cost of the outbreak was >€19 million (≈€120,000/day of the outbreak). The US dollar equivalent based on today's exchange rates would be $22.44 million (≈$142,000/day of the outbreak). This study highlights the economic need for a safe drinking water supply.

The physical, economic and policy drivers of land conversion to forestry in Ireland.

Land use change is fundamentally a product of the interaction of physical land characteristics, economic considerations and agricultural and environmental policies. Researchers are increasingly combining physical and socio-economic spatial data to investigate the drivers of land-use change in relation to policy and economic developments. Focusing on Ireland, this study develops a panel data set of annual afforestation over 2811 small-area boundaries between 1993 and 2007 from vector and raster data sources. Soil type and other physical characteristics are combined with the net returns of converting agricultural land to forestry, based on the micro-simulation of individual farm incomes, to investigate land conversion. A spatial econometric approach is adopted to model the data and a range of physical, economic and policy factors are identified as having a significant effect on afforestation rates. In addition to the financial returns, the availability and quality of land and the implementation of environmental protection policies are identified as important factors in land conversion. The implications of these factors for the goal of forest expansion are discussed in relation to conflicting current and future land use policies.

Trends and influential factors of high ecological status mobility in Irish Rivers.

The decline in high ecological water status in rivers is a significant concern in European countries. It is thus important to investigate the factors that cause sites to lose high status in order to undertake measures to protect and restore high status water quality. Analysis of 20 years of water quality data reveals strong mobility between high status and non-high status (especially good status) rivers. Associations between this mobility and socio-economic and physical environmental variables were estimated by multinomial logistic regression at national scale and regional scale. Based on reported changes in water quality status cross across 1990, 2000 and 2010, four classes of the mobility of high status were defined in this study: those sites that maintain high status (maintain), enter high status (enter), fluctuate between high and non-high status (fluctuate) and exit from high status (exit). The national results indicate that agricultural activity as indicated by variables representing intensity of livestock farming (organic nitrogen) and tillage farming (cereal share) and elevation had significant negative impacts on high status rivers. Meanwhile, significant differences in population density and septic tank density between 'exit', 'maintain', 'fluctuate' and 'enter' classes indicate that these factors played important roles in the stability of high status rivers. The regional outcomes reveal differential significant pressures across regions. For example, rainfall and elevation had positive impacts on high status rivers in the north-west region, while organic nitrogen had a negative effect in the south-west. This paper demonstrates the challenge in achieving the Water Framework Directive goal of maintaining high status rivers, given the sensitive and highly differentiated nature of areas that have lost high status or fluctuated in and out of high status. This paper also suggests the necessity for localised policies and mitigation measures.

An innovative food system approach to diversifying protein intake: Protein-I: Shared Island sustainable healthy nutrition.

There is a need to transform our current food system if we are to feed the rapidly expanding global population while maintaining planetary health. Within the island of Ireland, there is an urgent need to diversify the foods that currently contribute to our populations' protein intake. A Shared Island Innovative Food System approach is required to achieve this in a manner that is sustainable and provides benefits to producers, consumers and other supply chain participants. The Protein-I project employs such an approach, with the paradigm focusing on production of plant food through to human health, while paying particular attention to the development of the rural bioeconomy. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the team will develop strategies to maximise sustainable plant protein production in a traceable/transparent fashion and assess the impact of changes to existing value chains and the development of new value chains for the rural economy. A smart supply chain technology solution tailored to the needs of the agri-food industry will be developed and tested. Additionally, we will co-design consumer-led approaches to diversify plant protein intake, model the impact of changes at the population level and perform human interventions to demonstrate efficacy in terms of achieving adequate nutrition and improved health. Comprehensive engagement with stakeholders is embedded throughout the whole project to embrace the multi-actor approach. Overall, the project will be a key step towards future-proofing our food system on the island of Ireland and moving towards protecting planetary and population health, within the context of a just transition.

Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis.

The COVID-19 emergency has had a dramatic impact on market incomes and income-support policies. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrains policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than are available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data, aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis in Ireland. Overall, we find that the crisis had an equalizing real-time effect for both gross and disposable incomes, notwithstanding the significant hardship experienced by many households.

The Great Recession, financial strain and self-assessed health in Ireland.

In this paper, we study the effects of the 2008 economic crisis on general health in one of the most severely affected EU economies-Ireland. We examine the relationship between compositional changes in demographic and socio-economic factors, such as education, income, and financial strain, and changes in the prevalence of poor self-assessed health over a 5-year period (2008-2013). We apply a generalised Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach for non-linear regression models proposed by Fairlie (1999, 2005). Results show that the increased financial strain explained the largest part of the increase in poor health in the Irish population and different sub-groups. Changes in the economic activity status and population structure also had a significant positive effect. The expansion of education had a significant negative effect, preventing further increases in poor health. Wealthier and better educated individuals experienced larger relative increases in poor health, which led to reduced socio-economic health inequalities.

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland.

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individual's reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.